2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis! | Page 4 | Golden Skate

2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
Thus, if they could only pick one, they would much rather skate the team event than the individual event. However, since they would presumably be the No. 1/2 US Pair/lady, they would probably just choose to skate both to have the best of both worlds.
It's doubtful the US ladies or Pairs will (not just because they have no chance at the individual event, but also because the US Team has absolutely no one else to send in the Team Event if they want a legitimate shot at the medal). But it will definitely work out with the Russian ladies - they can have 5 olympic medalists from a single Olympics. It will also work out for their Pairs - they can send Tarasova/Morozov, Panfilova/Rylov, Boikova/Kozlovskii to the Individual Event, but Mishina/Galliamov or Pavliuchenko/Khodykin along with Panfilova/Rylov in the Team Event. They will not dig deeper in their men's field of ID field because the ones they send to the Individual Event will already be the ones who will get them the necessary points in the Team Event.

I think it will add a layer of strategy. Plus, since the Team Event is supposed to be about deepening and broadening your fields, why not?
In the Japan situation you explained, it could work if they really wanted to have two ice dance teams, but I feel like it's far more likely for them to want to split their singles disciplines so that their top skaters can conserve energy for the individual event, since their top skaters in the singles disciplines have a chance at an individual medal. Also, the team medal is a better reward for their singles disciplines, which are far stronger than their paired ones.


I don't think any top skater will refuse a potential medal to someone 3rd-4th in the row.
Again, it's a matter of strategy. They might not want to use any substitutes at all if they so choose. But they can send Hanyu for both men's events and Kihira for both ladies events. And then they can send two Pairs and two ID couples just for the experience since they're probably going to lose in those disciplines anyway. OR as dancelion explained, they might want to preserve their top singles skaters for the individual event - so they'll play their extra skaters there so that can get the Olympics experience.

Another layer of strategy: Are Sinitsyina/Katsalyopov going to the Team Event at all, or will they gamble it all on the Individual Event and end up with zero Olympic golds? What about Sui/Han? Is Alexandra Trusova going to do 4 quad programs at the Team Event and then bomb the Individual Event? This applies to many top contenders of many national teams.

ETA: Not sure if that made sense or if it's at all a good idea :laugh:
 
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Adjesusluvsu

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 16, 2021
Country
United-States
Alysa could land anywhere on that Olympic podium!
I love Alysa's enthusiasm and resilience! But I don't think she even has much of a chance at bronze. Any three Russian girls will have the difficulty to beat Alysa, and Rika's reliable 3A and solid skating skills will beat Alysa as well. I think if Alysa gets her quads back, she could be in fifth place, but if she doesn't, Bradie Tennell and Kaori Sakamoto look like better shots for fifth/sixth place.

Anyway, I don't mean to be rude, I just wanted to give my two cents :)
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
I'm still thinking about why the United States chose to split Ladies in 2018 instead of splitting Dance when US Ice Dance is so much stronger. I will be quite frustrated if they don't split Ice Dance is 2022 between H/D and C/B.
It worked out very well for them the way they did it considering Mirai ended up second in the free and Shibutani/Shibutani ended up in second for both segments.

With Bradie winning nationals and suddenly being hyped it made sense to have her skate one segment and Mirai’s potential with her triple axel meant she was the best hope to have a surprise high finish. If she skates both would she have gotten her Olympic moment in the free?

It does suck that H/D didn’t get the chance to skate here as National champions but it was an unfortunate result of only being allowed two swaps
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
It worked out very well for them the way they did it considering Mirai ended up second in the free and Shibutani/Shibutani ended up in second for both segments.

With Bradie winning nationals and suddenly being hyped it made sense to have her skate one segment and Mirai’s potential with her triple axel meant she was the best hope to have a surprise high finish. If she skates both would she have gotten her Olympic moment in the free?

It does suck that H/D didn’t get the chance to skate here as National champions but it was an unfortunate result of only being allowed two swaps
There was an entire thread to rehash it at one point, but you hadn't registered then :laugh: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/rehashing-the-2014-and-2018-oly-team-event.86301/

To avoid OT, I'll put it shortly. I am fine with whoever they sent, but if the intention was to maximize points instead of simply treating it like a joke event, they should have sent Chen for both men's events, I think. Then it would have allowed the Shibs + H/D or C/B to go for the Team Event. I also wanted to see Karen take the SP instead of Tennell - her PB was higher (Worlds 2017 vs Skate America 2017). Maybe hindsight is 20/20, but the judges didn't even care enough for Tennell's reputation as the US leading lady.
 

Dawn825

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
I'm still thinking about why the United States chose to split Ladies in 2018
I could be wrong, but I think someone wanted Mirai to get a medal.
they should have sent Chen for both men's events
The problem with the Olympic team event is that someone brainless decided it should be before the individual event. If it came after, like it does for Worlds, skaters would try their best. Since it's a few days before, skaters with podium potential like Chen are conserving their energy and trying to save their best performances.
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
The problem with the Olympic team event is that someone brainless decided it should be before the individual event.
I agree it's an issue, so one can only advocate for what should happen. In the thread I linked or the 2022 team event thread, the two loud opinions are, simply put, "THIS IS A JOKE EVENT SO THEY REST FOR THE INDIVIDUAL EVENT" and "THIS ISN'T A JOKE EVENT, ARE THEY ATHLETES OR NOT?!". So I don't advocate for either :laugh: I see both points of view. The issue is, to me, not the timing, but the reputation of the event. If the event had existed for, say, 50 years, people would not be complaining about having to skate two events in 10 days or whatever. They will just do it. But since that reputation isn't in our hands, we can only scream whether it's a joke or not or whether one is an athlete or not.

I guess if we move the event to after the individual event, people will try to give it their best shot, especially if they lost an olympic medal in the individual round. And that will increase its reputation, slowly but surely? But then again, someone might say "oh, well, I already have my medal, not going to this joke event, bye~", bringing its value down (much like an after-Olympic worlds). Some of the contending nations also don't have broad fields, so they might as well want to rest up for the individual event in the current state, or skip the team event afterwards because what's the point?

The way they peak is mentally exhausting, and it doesn't really look like anyone really takes the team event into consideration, unless we're talking the Shibs, D/R, and V/M at PyeongChang, or D/W and V/M again at Sochi, I guess. The only real solution to me is if everyone starts doing what those people did. But y'know. Meh. (oh, also, maybe they should start investing in broadening their disciplines - that was the apparent goal of it. But lol at that.)
 
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Dawn825

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
I don't think Alyssa is any kind of podium threat. She's greatly improved and I wish she was in it for another 4 years, but she might not even make this team if the US only has 2 spots. She could have a triple axel, but so could Amber or Karen. I agree her 4 Lz was never credible and I hope if she wants to try one it's a toe or salchow. I don't understand people who try to learn a quad lutz first, though I get that it's a points game. If you can't do the approximately 3.5 rotations of a toe or salchow, how can you do the full 4 of a lutz unless you're taking a little something of the front and back ends? Not gonna name names :slink: If Alyssa does make the team with only triple axels, she'll still be worse off than Rika in PCS, GoE and international reputation.

I don't think Satoko will make top 6 at this Olympics if she makes the team. I love her, but her jumps haven't shown any improvement with the coaching change. I don't see her coming out on top over Kaori, Bradie, or even Young You, who has great potential if she doesn't have a meltdown. (Also, someone help me - which one is her given name, which is her family name?)
 
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drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I could be wrong, but I think someone wanted Mirai to get a medal.
I believe the policy was to ask the first picks whether they wanted to do both segments of the team event. Nathan's preference was to do the SP only, and IIRC the Shibs wanted to do both. I think the USFSA will always favor selecting two ladies since that seems to be where the most marketable athletes come from, and it helps with their marketability if they are an Olympic medalist.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
For all Kihira fans who hang a medal on her early.

- She has never beaten T-SH-K since her junior days.

- She always collapses at major events: JGPF2017, JWC2018, WC2019, WTT 2019, GPF2019-2020.
JGPF2017 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha: 4S, Alëna no trixel/quads.
JWC2018 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha surprised the world with 2 quads, Alëna no trixel/ quads.
WC2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Alina no trixel/quads, Zhenya no trixel / quads.
WTT 2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Tukta's arsenal included 3 trixels.
GPF2019-2020 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, 4S. Sashas's arsenal included 1 trixel, 5 quads. Anna's arsenal included 3 Quads. Alëna's arsenal includead 3 trixels. All of you are going to argument that Kihira was injured at that moment, What about the other competitions?

Skate Canada 2019 Rika outscored Sasha in the SP, what happened in the FS? Sasha fell in her 4S attempt and still outscored Rika. Suppose Rika adds a 4S, Sasha with four clean quads is still unreachable.

It will be interesting to know if the ISU will put her on Kamila's path for the Grand Prix 2021.
Will Kamila's name be added to Rika's list of Russian executioners?

I watch Rika out of Olympic Podium.

Alysa Liu couldn't beat an injured Kamila without quads I don't see how she can beat the Russian team, all of them with multiple quads / trixels.
Yeon Yoo (Young You): Instagram quads don't count she needs to do them in real competition. Until then I will believe in her.

What if Sasha adds the 4L (Rittberger) to her arsenal?
Alysa could have beaten Valieva if she hadn't made mistakes in her long program. It is unclear now, however, whether she will still have the same jump content. A lot can happen in the next year so podium predictions are just guesses. I think the top 5 skaters in some order will be the three Russians (likely Valieva, Anna S. and either Trusova or Kostornaia), Rika Kihira and Alysa Liu (assuming she at least gets her 3A back).
 

brakes

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 31, 2020
I love Alysa's enthusiasm and resilience! But I don't think she even has much of a chance at bronze. Any three Russian girls will have the difficulty to beat Alysa, and Rika's reliable 3A and solid skating skills will beat Alysa as well. I think if Alysa gets her quads back, she could be in fifth place, but if she doesn't, Bradie Tennell and Kaori Sakamoto look like better shots for fifth/sixth place.

Anyway, I don't mean to be rude, I just wanted to give my two cents :)
I just don't know about that girl anymore. It looks pretty unattainable for her at the moment, but after her autumn performances I was sure she's history, and couple months later at nats she looked great (maybe even should've gotten a medal).
She's competitive, talented and obviously loving what's she's doing - sky is the limit for people like that.
 

Fool

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 11, 2018
Country
South-Korea
Alysa could have beaten Valieva if she hadn't made mistakes in her long program. It is unclear now, however, whether she will still have the same jump content. A lot can happen in the next year so podium predictions are just guesses. I think the top 5 skaters in some order will be the three Russians (likely Valieva, Anna S. and either Trusova or Kostornaia), Rika Kihira and Alysa Liu (assuming she at least gets her 3A back).

I mean she had a fall and 3 UR. That's like saying Trusova could've beaten others at Rostelecom if she didn't fall 4 times. It's a pretty big if.
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
I don't think Alyssa is any kind of podium threat. She's greatly improved and I wish she was in it for another 4 years, but she might not even make this team if the US only has 2 spots. She could have a triple axel, but so could Amber or Karen. I agree her 4 Lz was never credible and I hope if she wants to try one it's a toe or salchow. I don't understand people who try to learn a quad lutz first, though I get that it's a points game. If you can't do the approximately 3.5 rotations of a toe or salchow, how can you do the full 4 of a lutz unless you're taking a little something of the front and back ends? Not gonna name names :slink: If Alyssa does make the team with only triple axels, she'll still be worse off than Rika in PCS, GoE and international reputation.

I don't think Satoko will make top 6 at this Olympics if she makes the team. I love her, but her jumps haven't shown any improvement with the coaching change. I don't see her coming out on top over Kaori, Bradie, or even Young You, who has great potential if she doesn't have a meltdown. (Also, someone help me - which one is her given name, which is her family name?)
at this point, Alysa has more pull already than at least Amber. why? a history of triple axels, quads, and being a 2x national champion. she has also been for the most part pretty reliable. Amber has a 3A in practice basically and until she starts consistently throwing clean performances with 3As left and right, USFSA won't take her seriously and they have years of reasons not to, hence why she was left off the world team. Karen as much as i love her won't competitively get a 3A. she rotates too slowly and has consistency issues on top of that. she is close to maxed out technically right now, but this doesn't mean she can't beat Alysa (which she did this nationals).

of course if Alysa comes out next season without at least a 3A and has consistent struggles on top of that, then it will likely be a different story. but if she comes back improved even more then i have no doubt USFS will be full steam ahead on the Alysa train.

Alysa making the podium at the olympics if she makes it is a whole different story and without many skaters making huge mistakes, it's not going to happen. top 10 or even top 6 is doable for her, but she is too far behind in several areas to truly be a threat to the Russians and Rika.
 

Dawn825

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
If Nationals results don't work out the way the federation expects, they'll just send whoever they want anyways. So you're probably right, as long as Alyssa isn't a hot mess the whole season she'll get a spot on the team.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
Russia
Alysa won't be getting a spot if her jumps don't improve. They held her up at this Nationals on the basis of it being an "inbetween" season and her having time to return strong next season, but if her jumps remain as they are and deservedly get < calls during the Grand Prix season (and of course, no 3A coming back), then she's gone.
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
Alysa won't be getting a spot if her jumps don't improve. They held her up at this Nationals on the basis of it being an "inbetween" season and her having time to return strong next season, but if her jumps remain as they are and deservedly get < calls during the Grand Prix season (and of course, no 3A coming back), then she's gone.
as long as she's healthy, i don't see any reason she shouldn't make improvements. she dealt with growing several inches and injury this year and did exceptionally well at nationals given how she was performing a couple months prior. i'm sure Alysa and her team are well aware of the problems with her jumps and will work hard to improve them, but i wouldn't say if the carrot farm continues then she's off the team. USFS has no problem backing Karen with the same problem.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
I mean she had a fall and 3 UR. That's like saying Trusova could've beaten others at Rostelecom if she didn't fall 4 times. It's a pretty big if.
She lost 5 points minimum on the fall on her 3A, so she probably could have beaten her if she hadn't fallen and had gotten just a little GOE on it (talking about the JGP Final here).
 
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