Anybody want to bet that these will be exact medals at next Olympics?

[slutskayafan21]

If you all are so sure I am wrong on something how come none of you are taking the bet? The first one that offers I am game.

 

[alicelouise]

Betting

If you all are so sure I am wrong on something how come none of you are taking the bet? The first one that offers I am game.

I'm not saying you're wrong. However, I will bet you the next OGM is someone we haven't heard of yet or someone to whom no one is paying attention.

I've Monopoly money and if I'm feeling adventurous I'll bet 1000 Italian Lira.

 

[julietvalcouer]

If not only one, but TWO US dance teams made the podium, I think I would faint.

 

[antmanb]

Who Knows? If recent history is an indication, the anointed up and comer of the previous Olympics does not win. I am referring to the ladies. Let's start with 1992.

That is quite true but i guess in 92 and 94 there was the oddity of the Olympics only being 4 years apart. Since the gold medalist rarely stays in for the next cycle i don't think looking at the reigning Olympic Champion going into the Olympics is the right prediction but the previous worlds certainly are.

The winner: Kristi Yamaguchi. In 1988, she was probably looked at as a promising Pairs prospect. After the 1988 Olympics, it seemed the focus was on Midori Ito and Jill Trenary.

But Kristi went into 1992 as the reigning world champion so she must have gone in at least as a joint favourite.

1994: Oksana Baiul. In 1992 her best finish was 12th place at the USSR Championships. The focus was on Nancy Kerrigan and Surya Bonaly.

But again Baiul went into the Olympics as the reigning world champion. I think the focus leading up to it was on the Kerrigan/Harding story but again, at least a joint favourite for the Gold Baiul must have been.

1998: Tara Lipinski. Her biggest win was the US Junior Olympics I think. In 1994 the attention was on Michelle Kwan and Tanja Scewczenko.

As with the rest Lipinski went into the Olympics as the reigning world champion. and in 1994 i don't think many people outside of the US even really knew who kwan was i'd have thought the focus in 1994 must still have been on Bonaly who had been dominating at Europeans and been on the podium at worlds too.

It seems though more recently the world title holder doesn't bear up well under the pressure of the "favourite" mantle. Because of the age rules in place now i think we may not get as many teen sensations winning the Olympics titles anymore, i would have thought the winner will be well known to the skating public.

Ant

 

[evenstar]

Umm, Tara Lipinski was the reigning U.S National Silver Medalist coming into the Olympics. She also had a World title, a National title, and numerous Grand Prix medals, as well as a victory at the Grand Prix Final that year. I'd say it was definetly a Tara/Michelle battle in 1998.

 

[#1Kerryfan]

Would anybody like to bet 1000$ these will be the medals at the 2010 Winter Olympics:

Pairs:

Gold-Zhang and Zhang or Pang and Tong
Silver-Pang and Tong or Zhang and Zhang
Bronze-Dube and Davison



Men:

Gold-Lambiel
Silver-Oda
Bronze-Lysacek


Dance:

Gold-Belbin and Agosto
Silver-Moir and Virtue
Bronze-Mathews and Zazovin


Ladies:

Gold-Asada
Silver-Kim
Bronze-Meissner


I would bet the first person who takes up the offer $1000 that those will be the medals at the Olympics four years from now.

That sounds accurate.

 

[dorispulaski]

So you want to bet that instead of 3 gold medals and one bronze medal as in 2006, the Russians will win 0 medals of any color? Doesn't seem likely. And 3 North American pairs in dance?

 

[Jaana]

Joe, I loved your predictions! What a great sense for humour, LOL... This one made me laugh loudest: "Both Sasha and Michelle plan to stay around for 2014. They love to compete."

 

[antmanb]

If you all are so sure I am wrong on something how come none of you are taking the bet? The first one that offers I am game.

How do we know you're good for the money?!

Ant

 

[Mathman]

How do we know you're good for the money?!

That's a good point! I think Slutskayafan, and anyone who wants to take his bet, should send me $1000 now and I will hold it in escrow until 2010 for them.

Just trying to help.

MM

 

[gkelly]

I would bet (but not with real money just for logistical reasons) that at least one and perhaps as many as six of the medalists predicted in the original post will not even be competing at the 2010 Olympics, let alone winning medals.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I would bet (but not with real money just for logistical reasons) that at least one and perhaps as many as six of the medalists predicted in the original post will not even be competing at the 2010 Olympics, let alone winning medals.

Well no way could any of Oda, Asada, Kim, Meissner, Belbin and Agosto, Moir and Virtue, or Matthews and Zazovin, Zhang and Zhang, and Dube and Davison, who are all so young. So even if somehow all of Lambiel, Lysacek, Pang and Tong did not make it to the next Olympics that would still be only 3 missing absolute maximum.

 

[slutskayafan21]

So you want to bet that instead of 3 gold medals and one bronze medal as in 2006, the Russians will win 0 medals of any color? Doesn't seem likely. And 3 North American pairs in dance?

Yes I think Russia will struggle big-time with the likes of Griazev, Domnina and Shabalin, Obertas and Slavnov, et al as their future.

 

[gkelly]

Well no way could any of Oda, Asada, Kim, Meissner, Belbin and Agosto, Moir and Virtue, or Matthews and Zazovin, Zhang and Zhang, and Dube and Davison, who are all so young.

No way could any of them what? Not compete at 2010 Olympics? Sure there are ways -- they could be injured, they could just get sick at exactly the wrong time so they'd have to withdraw after they're in Vancouver, or at their nationals and thus not make the team, they could just happen to skate badly at their nationals when enough competitors including perhaps some we haven't heard of yet skate well that they wouldn't make the team (especially if there had been withdrawals or bad skates at the previous Worlds so that only one or two spots were available for their country in their discipline), they could get burnt out mentally/emotionally, the pairs or dance teams could break up for all sorts of reasons . . . Four years is a long time, a lot can happen.

 

[anything_for_skating]

Sasha Cohen slips to 5th place after winning the SP.

Michelle Kwan makes the last group of 6 to skate with only two competed jumps.

Katy Taylor in Vancouver waiting for MK to withdraw.

Both Sasha and Michelle plan to stay around for 2014. They love to compete.

heavens....Sasha and Michelle will retire...you'll see I'm right

 

[Grgranny]

The big networks quit showing any skating on tv and to top it off, we will be in WW111 and there won't be any olympics or worlds, etc. No one will be able to afford tv's and gas will be so high the country will be host to lots of walkers who have thinned down because of all the walking. Then Jesus comes and we have the "RAPTURE". And no one will be able to spell DEFINITELY.

 

[Grgranny]

And no one under 18 will be able to get on Golden Skate.
Grgranny will be dead.

 

[JonnyCoop]

The big networks quit showing any skating on tv and to top it off, we will be in WW111 and there won't be any olympics or worlds, etc. No one will be able to afford tv's and gas will be so high the country will be host to lots of walkers who have thinned down because of all the walking. Then Jesus comes and we have the "RAPTURE". And no one will be able to spell DEFINITELY.

Well, I seem to recall you posted a thread a few months ago that said that no-one knew how to spell it now, so that has apparently come to pass already.

WW111? Wow, that's 109 World Wars we have to get into in the next 4 years....

As to the original predictions -- If there is anyone in the history of figure skating fandom who has been able to predict, in more or less correct order, the exact Olympic medallists 4 years in advance, especially in the last 40 years, I would like to meet this person. And if there is going to be a North American medal sweep in Dance, then I am Martina Navratilova.....

 

[Grgranny]

I suppose I should have put a 3 on it but seems to me back then they always printed W W II for 2. Of course, having gone through too many doors, nothing is left in my brain anyway. Or did I forget to capitalize? You can wonder.

 

[Grgranny]

Wondering about the doors? Go to La Cafe and look at "Another Problem".