- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Do they have the podium all to themselves? Who else can challenge for a podium position?
Joe
Joe
Are the 3 American Ladies a Done Deal?
- Thread starter Joesitz (RIP)
- Start date
It's not a done deal until it's over. 
Ice is slippery.
People who can challenge the American ladies if they falter:
Elena Glebova: Solid triple toe-triple toe, has had good SPs all season but has struggled in the free. Maybe she'll put it all together this time. Has all the triples except for the flip.
Jenni Vähämaa: Another inconsistent skater. If she skates like she did at the Finlandia Trophy, she could challenge. She gets pretty good PCS. 1 JGP silver, 1 JGP bronze, 5th JPGF, 10th at Europeans and 1st at the Finlandia Trophy.
Yuki Nishino: Again, has had solid SPs all season (she was 2nd in this portion of the JGP final). 2 JGP golds, JGPF bronze and 2nd at Japanese Junior Nationals. She also gets pretty good PCS.
Vähämaa and Nishino have all the non-axel triples, though Nishino's flip is pretty inconsistent as she's trying to fix her edge.
Ice is slippery.People who can challenge the American ladies if they falter:
Elena Glebova: Solid triple toe-triple toe, has had good SPs all season but has struggled in the free. Maybe she'll put it all together this time. Has all the triples except for the flip.
Jenni Vähämaa: Another inconsistent skater. If she skates like she did at the Finlandia Trophy, she could challenge. She gets pretty good PCS. 1 JGP silver, 1 JGP bronze, 5th JPGF, 10th at Europeans and 1st at the Finlandia Trophy.
Yuki Nishino: Again, has had solid SPs all season (she was 2nd in this portion of the JGP final). 2 JGP golds, JGPF bronze and 2nd at Japanese Junior Nationals. She also gets pretty good PCS.
Vähämaa and Nishino have all the non-axel triples, though Nishino's flip is pretty inconsistent as she's trying to fix her edge.
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2006
Am I the only one who finds it ironic that it is very probable that the american ladies will sweep the poduim at junior worlds yet we probably won't even place well enough in senior worlds to send three ladies next year.
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2008
I agree with oleada about Jenni and Yuki being good skaters. I saw Jenni at last years Junior Worlds and JGPF--she is a lovely skater and wonderful to watch. I saw Yuki at the JGP in Sheffield and at the JGPF in Gdansk--she is a good skater and a very good competitor.
I also saw Svetlana Issakova (Estonia) at Sheffield and Gdansk. She skated really well at Sheffield but did really poorly in the long program at the JGPF--it was as if she forgot her program and did not know what to do.
If everyone skates well, the 3 Americans should have scores above these three but I think these three are probably at least top ten in the junior worlds.
I also saw Svetlana Issakova (Estonia) at Sheffield and Gdansk. She skated really well at Sheffield but did really poorly in the long program at the JGPF--it was as if she forgot her program and did not know what to do.
If everyone skates well, the 3 Americans should have scores above these three but I think these three are probably at least top ten in the junior worlds.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
It would be ironic .............. if that's what happens.
I think if even 2 of these 3 ladies go to worlds next year, they will acquit themselves quite admirably.
Thanks for your impressions PaulE. I also really enjoy Jenni's musical style and I hope she can at least repeat her 4th place spot from last year. Hopefully she can skate lights out.
As for the top ten, my guess is that it will be: Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Yuki Nishino, Jenni Vähämaa, Elena Glebova, Svetlana Issakova, Rumi Suizu, Sarah Hecken and either Gerboldt or Lenova (though not necessarily in that order). I think the USA will keep their three spots, Japan has a good shot at getting three spots back, Estonia can get three if both girls skate well and Finland will most likely drop down to two.
As for the top ten, my guess is that it will be: Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Caroline Zhang, Yuki Nishino, Jenni Vähämaa, Elena Glebova, Svetlana Issakova, Rumi Suizu, Sarah Hecken and either Gerboldt or Lenova (though not necessarily in that order). I think the USA will keep their three spots, Japan has a good shot at getting three spots back, Estonia can get three if both girls skate well and Finland will most likely drop down to two.
Actually chuckm I think Canada will finish in the 6 - 10 range in terms of countries which means Canada would have 8 JGP slots.
If ( and that is a big if ) Samson can skate 2 clean programs, she could very well finish among the top 5 countries. Problem is she is so inconsistent. Remember she was 7th after the short last year so she was in the top 5 country region before the free.
The really scary thing is if Samson is ill and one of our 2 named substitutes ( Szmiett or Tisluk ) compete in her place. Both Szmiett and Tisluk are known to competely implode ( way worse than Samson on a bad day) on a regular basis and are fully capable on a bad day to skate so badly that they don't make it out of the short program. In that case, Canada would be down to only 5 JGP entries; the minimum any country receives for the JGP. Our junior champion ( heck even our novice champion ) could at least be relied upon to make it to the free skate.
Could you imagine, 5 JGP entries and 3 slots will most likely be wasted on Szmiett, Tisluk and Kang; all who are skaters who are likely to miss everything. Our far more consistent junior and novice champions might not even get anything. :banging:
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- Joined
- Jun 24, 2007
nadster,
Skate Canada's placement of junior ladies requires a complete overhaul.
Why do Skate Canada always want to send Kang, Tisluck to JGP? She had two very awkward falls in SP at Nationals, and she just blew apart in LP. Tisluck might have the talents, but her work ethic, or lack thereof is well known. She is a lady version of Sandhu on his worst day, and she can be easily 10 times worse than the worst of Sandhu. She is not going to progress. Neither of them have had any international records to prove that their national disaster was just a one-time mishap.
Skate Canada's placement of junior ladies requires a complete overhaul.
Why do Skate Canada always want to send Kang, Tisluck to JGP? She had two very awkward falls in SP at Nationals, and she just blew apart in LP. Tisluck might have the talents, but her work ethic, or lack thereof is well known. She is a lady version of Sandhu on his worst day, and she can be easily 10 times worse than the worst of Sandhu. She is not going to progress. Neither of them have had any international records to prove that their national disaster was just a one-time mishap.
Has Samson ever completed two clean programs?
She didn't in the JGP this season, and she didn't at Canadians.
She sometimes can do a pretty clean SP, but in the FS she underrotates and doubles jumps fairly consistently.
Scorewise, she scored 47+ for a fairly clean SP at the JGP, and 74+ for her best JGP FS; her total scores in her two JGP events were 117+ and 121+. The US ladies, Nishino, Vahamaa, Issakova, Hecken and Berton can all score over 80 in the FS, and generate total scores much higher than Samson's. Leonova is also capable of placing ahead of Samson overall.
She didn't in the JGP this season, and she didn't at Canadians.
She sometimes can do a pretty clean SP, but in the FS she underrotates and doubles jumps fairly consistently.
Scorewise, she scored 47+ for a fairly clean SP at the JGP, and 74+ for her best JGP FS; her total scores in her two JGP events were 117+ and 121+. The US ladies, Nishino, Vahamaa, Issakova, Hecken and Berton can all score over 80 in the FS, and generate total scores much higher than Samson's. Leonova is also capable of placing ahead of Samson overall.
After a fairly clean sp at Nationals, she had a disastrous long. I just noticed she had landed only one clean triple in the long, the final 3sal.
sp:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5d5z9r1R9w&feature=related
lp:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lmYzZPHJpw
Canadian commentators are so over the top from time to time. At 2007 Nationals, Samson had a good outing, the commentator immediately announced a 'world class skater is in the making', TWICE!! pay attention to 4'00 in lp..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CR0xmsedMM&feature=related
and 2'00 in sp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8Hd2_P-vj4&feature=related
The commentators always screams with excitement whenever a lady lands a 3lutz/3flip or a man lands a 3A. It's kind of funny.
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Simple. Because they can land a triple lutz 1% of the time while SC forgets that they completely implode the other 99% of the time. Szmiett is not much better in this regard as well especially in short programs.
There are 2 main problems with selection for JGP assignments.
1. Not looking at all at the consistency of a skater. It is much better to send a skater who has a consistent toe and salchow and nothing else than to send a skater who is more likely to completely implode even if they can land a triple lutz once in a blue moon. We actually have skaters with consistent toe and salchow who would outscore the imploders 90% of the time and they always get overlooked.
2. Choosing skaters based on performances in non-competitive or not very competitive environments. First of all understand that national results ( the most competitive environment that our skaters face before getting a JGP) have little or no bearing on selection for JGP events. In previous years, SC looked at videotapes of skater's runthroughs to select skaters. Fortunately they have stopped doing that but instead they base it on summer competitions with super-diluted fields. A skater like Szmiett would score near 130 ( SP+FS ) in the super weak Western Ontario summer skate field where most of the skaters would struggle to land any kind of double axel or triple jump. Obviously Szmiett's marks would get inflated simply because she is so much better than the rest of the field ( which would struggle to even score a SP+FS total of 90). You can hardly call competing with also rans who were gifted their competitive tests a competitive environment. There is much more pressure on a skater when they know the other skaters are also very good and can beat them.
We need to make consistency a more important factor in selection. Also if summer competitions are used, the summer competitions that decisions are based on should be far more competitive like those in the States. Send our ladies to US competitions where they face far more competitive fields or at least make our best skaters have to skate off against each other in the summer.
The funny thing is that in other disciplines (esp dance) Skate Canada does the right thing. Almost all of our ice dancers compete in Lake Placid during the summer for instance. And our domestic summer competitions in men and pairs don't have the super diluted fields that the ladies do.
Well, China probably wants to spread out int'l assignments among its youngsters. Obviously if they're sending Geng Bingwa to JW this year, they're looking to send her to the Olympics in 2010. It would be a valuable experience for her.
Bingwa has a good chance of placing top 10 at JW, too. She has all the jumps besides the 3loop, and she gets great height on them. Plus she has the best spins among Chinese "ladies" -- even does Caroline's "pearl". It'll be amusing to see her and Caroline both doing it at JW.
I completely agree. Look at Chrissy Hughes, who won both of her JGP events with no lutz or flip. She didn't fare well in the JGPF or at US Nationals with her limited jump repertoire, but she still brought home two JGP gold medals. If she went to JW, she wouldn't medal there, but she likely would finish in the top 10.
Skate Canada's criteria for international competitions is absurd, since the skaters they send to the JGP / JW don't really fulfill the requirements; I think SC must be looking at what skaters do over a number of competitions in a time period, not at what skaters are typically doing in each competition. Landing one lutz in competition out of 8 tries doesn't qualify as having a lutz. Landing 3 different triples in the FS of 4 different competitions doesn't qualify as landing 3 different triples in the same competition. Samson has landed 3Z, 3F, 3S and 3L, but not in the FS of any one competition. She always seems to underrotate or double at least two of the jumps in any given competition.
I've noticed that at the big summer competitions held in Canada, there are multiple Junior groups, but the winners of each group do not compete against one another to determine a final Junior champion.
At Thornhill, Junior group 1 was led by DeeDee Leng (USA, 119.76) and Kana Muramoto (JPN, 116.65); group 2 by Kelsey McNeill (CAN, 105.43) and Eri Mishimura (JPN, 99.52); and group 3 by Miruku Matsushita (JPN, 124.97) and Satsuki Muramoto (JPN, 113.05). As it turned out, McNeill became the Canadian Junior Champion, and it might have benefitted her (and other higher-scoring Canadian skaters) to skate in a final round at consisting of the top 6 from each of the 3 Thornhill groups.
I also think Skate Canada needs to encourage the top Junior finishers to compete at more summer competitions, even sending them to the US summer events. The USFS uses summer competition results to select skaters to International "B"s and even JGP events, and Skate Canada should consider doing the same.
I've noticed that, in general, Canadian skaters tend to compete in U.S. club competitions later in the summer -- probably because their competitive (qualifying) season starts later than in the USA. While some Canadian skaters have shown up at major comps like Liberty and Skate Detroit each July, they seem more likely to show up at the larger U.S. club comps in August, such as Silicon Valley Open in San Jose and Golden West in LA.
Although it should be noted that the most recent U.S. Nationals results have been a major factor when it comes to assignment to international competitions such as Senior Bs and both the first and second rounds of JGPs.
BTW, if someone wants to start a new thread in The Edge forum for discussing the potential ways to improve Canadian ladies' junior international results, please feel free!
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Canadian skaters do show up at US competitions, but the vast majority of them are not Junior ladies, and that is the level and discipline that most needs the competition experience.
Many times we've seen Canadian ladies (almost always Senior ladies) on US summer rosters before the competition begins, but when the SP results come up, we see more withdrawals than results for the Canadian entries.
Many times we've seen Canadian ladies (almost always Senior ladies) on US summer rosters before the competition begins, but when the SP results come up, we see more withdrawals than results for the Canadian entries.
Thornhill used to have finals consisting of the best skaters from all the groups but they stopped that a few years ago. The Thornhill competition when it had finals lasted 5 days; now it only lasts 4. So I suspect ice rental time costs is an issue here.
But I agree , there need to be finals where there are multiple groups. The problem is not that we don't use summer competitions results; the problem is that those results we use are in super weak fields and we don't insist that our skaters compete in a summer competition with a strong field.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2006
Well, China probably wants to spread out int'l assignments among its youngsters. Obviously if they're sending Geng Bingwa to JW this year, they're looking to send her to the Olympics in 2010. It would be a valuable experience for her.
Bingwa has a good chance of placing top 10 at JW, too. She has all the jumps besides the 3loop, and she gets great height on them. Plus she has the best spins among Chinese "ladies" -- even does Caroline's "pearl". It'll be amusing to see her and Caroline both doing it at JW.
But the loop is the solo jump required for Junior Worlds this year, so Bingwa will be at great disadvantage in the short program already. This is also her first international event ever, so judges will not be so generous with PCS either. And if she is truly age eligeable (which I have doubts) why did the Chinese federation not send her to the JGP circuit earlier this season? That would have been a much more valuable experience for her.
Agreed. But if they're willing to fudge her age now, they would've been willing to fudge her age prior to the JGP season too. I think the real reason is that she really improved a lot this season, more than expected. Before this season, maybe it didn't seem like she would be competitive on the JGP. And it's also because that she has improved so much in the past year, that maybe they're hoping that she will improve on her 3loop enough by the JW to get a decent SP result. In the LP video of hers, her 3loop looked about 120 degrees short. So it's not completely hopeless. Anyway, un-ideal as it is to rush her out there this year, she's China's best hope at the junior level right now.
Actually, all the top American girls sent to JW have problems with downgrades too. Geng Bingwa is just unlucky that if her 3loop gets downgraded in the SP, that's an automatic -3 GOE, applied to a base value of 2loop. Plus if she falls, she'll get a 1 point deduction. So that's a big disadvantage. But she's not gunning for top 5. Beyond the top 5 or 6, the JW girls aren't that strong. I still think she has a chance at top 10, since she has the other 4 triples and a big 2A. Many of the junior girls don't have 3Z or 3F, and quite a few don't have a good 3loop.
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