1. When she said after Worlds that she didn't even know what levels her Bolero elements were when it was in the process of being choreographed, having chosen a professional choreographer who hadn't made a profession of studying CoP, and she admitted this was a mistake, I think either she's finally gotten it, or she deliberately decided to see what her baseline 6.0 program would garner under CoP, to determine how much and exactly what she'd have to add next season. (Not that I think this is a good strategy the year before the Olympics. Two years before, perhaps.) I've always wondered if she was really in denial from the beginning about CoP, or if the USFS was so sure that CoP wouldn't pass, that they passed on this opinion to her, and she didn't adjust when it turned out not to pan out that way.
2. If she's revamped her jump technique under Artunian, then I would expect to see a 3T/3T at Nationals and Worlds. Her jumps look more powerful this year, but I'm not sure how much she had to change her technique to accomplish this. I'd be very surprised to see any other 3/3, particularly since she dropped the 3Lo this year.
3-4. I think she'll mine her old programs from pre-1999, and add in MITF and transitions into next year's program. (If only she could get a David Wilson program through RA's connection to JB's connection to DW, and she swore an oath in blood not to dilute it to nothing...)
Whether this will make any difference in her score will depend on one of two things happening:
a. The ISU squeezes, I mean trains, the judges to evaluate PCS properly -- i.e., according to the written code. That would mean that the top skaters wouldn't get an automatic 7-8 transitions score for a 5-6 transitions program. However, under this scenario, this is only one component score of five.
b. She skates so well and consistently in GP that she posts top scores and is a favorite going into the Olympics, as the judges have shown this year that PCS are scored as a bunch and on protocol. For example, one of the lower ranked Men in Moscow -- I don't have my notes with me to look up who -- had unusual entrances or steps into all but one jump and step sequence directly into a spin, and he was given transitions marks in the 4-5 range, just like his other scores. So much for the independence of the components and the written guidelines. Actually, a number of the lower-ranked men had the best transitions in the lot, as their coaches and choreographers tried to compensate for some of their lower jump content with more difficult entrances. Not that it showed in the scoring.
Side rant: I think that jumps should be levelled based on the difficulty of entrances, including specific criteria for the steps into jumps, to be decided by the callers. Also, I think the caller should determine if any break between the steps and jump is short enough to count as having met the criteria for the element, and if it isn't, it's an automatic -3 GOE.
5. If the rule is do GP or no Olympics, then either she will do GP or retire. Otherwise, I think the only way she'll do two GP events is if this year she follows Arutunian's game plan, not her own.
It's an interesting legal issue -- unless, of course, Cinquanta shoves through a series of rule changes the way he shoved through CoP -- whether the ISU can force skaters to do GP in order to qualify for the Olympics. While the ISU is the sole representative of skating for officiating and creating rules of the field for the sport, from everything I've read, the National Federations are responsible for establishing the criteria for choosing (or refusing to send) participants from their country, within Olympic rules (such as requiring citizenship.) I wonder under what circumstances the ISU can "de-certify" a participant for the Olympics, as opposed to a judge, group of judges, or a Federation, apart from having turned pro. Fining them, perhaps, for not participating in GPs. like they do if a skater team qualifies for but does not perform in the exhibitions.
6. I don't think Meissner will beat Cohen, even if she had a 3A and a quad, let alone Kwan. (The only way I see Cohen beating Kwan is if Cohen has the ultimate skate and Kwan in shaky, but then Cohen may have left her best performance on Nationals ice.) Unless Meissner makes the same jump in presentation that Kwan made between 1995-6, I can't imagine that the international judges will score Meissner over Kwan or Cohen in GP competition, as they did Hughes over Slutskaya and Kwan in the fall leading up to SLC.
7. Frankly, I think that she has to suck up and make a show of a good attitude -- i.e, show some competitive fire, compete outside NA, project to the crowd instead of expecting the crowd to love her, i.e. be a good international trouper -- as much as she has to add elements.
8. Only if she gives two very solid skates, and everyone else falters badly in at least one of the two programs, or if she keeps her head while everyone about her is losing theirs (to paraphrase Rudyard Kipling).
