Can Yuna score over 74 points in the short program?

[Peach]

If she performs clean, is she capable of getting over 74~75 points? I looked at the WC2013 protocol and Yuna received relatively low GOEs (at least less than what she usually gets) in the short program. I did some math and if she gets the same GOE's that she got on her jumps and spins in the FS, she should be able to hit 74. Of course, this is only if she performs perfectly with no errors and receives around 34~34.5 in the program components.

I'm honestly curious though. I know that at the end of the day, it's all based on the performance and the judges' decisions... but I just wanted to know if people think it's possible. Because if she does get over 74 points, I don't see anyone beating her...even if she makes little mistakes in the FS.

 

[Moment]

Yes

 

[zamboni step]

If she performs clean, is she capable of getting over 74~75 points? I looked at the WC2013 protocol and Yuna received relatively low GOEs (at least less than what she usually gets) in the short program. I did some math and if she gets the same GOE's that she got on her jumps and spins in the FS, she should be able to hit 74. Of course, this is only if she performs perfectly with no errors and receives around 34~34.5 in the program components.

I'm honestly curious though. I know that at the end of the day, it's all based on the performance and the judges' decisions... but I just wanted to know if people think it's possible. Because if she does get over 74 points, I don't see anyone beating her...even if she makes little mistakes in the FS.

Her underscoring in the 2013 Worlds SP was due to her skating in the first few groups. She could easily score 74+ in the SP, although I think if her and Mao both skate clean, Mao will just about come out on top because of the 3A. It'd be an amazing competition to see if both did though.

 

[Peach]

Her underscoring in the 2013 Worlds SP was due to her skating in the first few groups.

Oh I completely forgot that she was in the first few groups. Do you think she is capable of getting over 75 then?

 

[zamboni step]

Oh I completely forgot that she was in the first few groups. Do you think she is capable of getting over 75 then?

If Julia can score 72+ then Kim can definitely score 75+. I just added it up and if she skates clean and gets the same +GOEs and PCS as 2013 Worlds FS, she'll score 78.45, and this is the Olympics where they like huge numbers to fly around to look impressive. So she can definitely score 75+

 

[sky_fly20]

Realistic Max scores

Mao and Yuna - 74+
Carolina and Julia - 72+
Ashley, Gracie, Adelina - 70+
Akiko - 69+

 

[zamboni step]

Realistic Max scores

Mao and Yuna - 74+
Carolina and Julia - 72+
Ashley, Gracie, Adelina - 70+
Akiko - 69+

I agree with everything but the first two, Mao has gotten that last season already, a clean skate at the Olympics with a 3A and a less impacting program. A clean skate from her would be great. And Kim has the potential to score 78+ especially with what is quite probably a very emotionally moving program, her GOE and PCS has already been huge and if she skates it clean the score will be near unbeatable. Also I'm surprised at you limiting Julia to 72, I feel if she skates clean and powerfully at the Olympics she'll score around 74 whether she deserves it or not is another matter.

 

[Peach]

A clean skate from her would be great. And Kim has the potential to score 78+ especially with what is quite probably a very emotionally moving program, her GOE and PCS has already been huge and if she skates it clean the score will be near unbeatable..

78??? Isn't that a bit too high... I mean with her current layout, she would need to get around 37 for her component marks...I don't think that is realistic. This isn't the long program we are talking about here. I don't think they will suddenly raise 4~5 points just because it's the olympics. Also, are you expecting Mao to score over 80 then since you mentioned that she would score higher than Yuna if she skates perfectly with no errors (b/c of her 3A)....

 

[Ambivalent]

Yes she can because the quality of her elements, particularly jumps is magnificent and the best in the world bar none.

I am interested to hear which groups she will skate in though. Is it a foregone conclusion that she will skate in the early groups? This may lowball her.

 

[Ambivalent]

78??? Isn't that a bit too high... I mean with her current layout, she would need to get around 37 for her component marks...I don't think that is realistic. This isn't the long program we are talking about here. I don't think they will suddenly raise 4~5 points just because it's the olympics. Also, are you expecting Mao to score over 80 then since you mentioned that she would score higher than Yuna if she skates perfectly with no errors (b/c of her 3A)....

I believe if Yuna and Mao skate well it will be a virtual tie. Mao has greater difficulty with her jumps but Yuna has better GOE and execution.

 

[Peach]

Yes she can because the quality of her elements, particularly jumps is magnificent and the best in the world bar none.

I am interested to hear which groups she will skate in though. Is it a foregone conclusion that she will skate in the early groups? This may lowball her.

Is she going to skate early again? The current world AND olympic champion skating in the first few groups? Hmm...

 

[Ambivalent]

Had it not been for the phantom edge call at 2013 worlds, YuNa would have scored 71ish for her rather lacklustre program. As this is Olympic season and Yuna's return firmly established (she is reigning world and Olympic champion) scoring about 75 or so for her SP barring falls is quite rralistic.

 

[zamboni step]

78??? Isn't that a bit too high... I mean with her current layout, she would need to get around 37 for her component marks...I don't think that is realistic. This isn't the long program we are talking about here. I don't think they will suddenly raise 4~5 points just because it's the olympics. Also, are you expecting Mao to score over 80 then since you mentioned that she would score higher than Yuna if she skates perfectly with no errors (b/c of her 3A)....

Her PCS in the 2013 Worlds FS factorised to a SP instead is 36.8. I'll break down the numbers she'd get 78+ and then Mao to beat her. Keep in mind all the GOEs minus the flying camel are the exact GOEs she got at 2013 Worlds FS which wasn't the Olympics. And they do bump your score up a little at the Olympics because it attracts non-skating fans if the first even they watch has Season and personal bests left right and centre, rather than stingy low scoring which can be a little depressing to watch.

Kim

3Lz+3T 10.10 +1.90 12.00
3F 5.30 +1.90 7.30
FCSp4 3.20 +1.00 4.20 (the judges would be willing to give her +2s across the board with the usual quality of that spin)
LSp3 2.40 +1.07 3.47 (The GOE she gets for her layback is crazy, but it's still what they give her)
StSq4 3.90 +1.40 5.30
2Ax 3.63 +1.14 4.77
CCoSp4 3.50 +1.21 4.71

SS- 9.21
TR- 8.89
PE- 9.36
CH- 9.18
IN- 9.36

Base value- 32.03
GOE total- 9.63
TES- 41.65
PCS- 36.80
TSS- 78.45

 

[zamboni step]

Mao

3A 8.50 +2.00 10.50
3F 5.30 +1.00 6.30
CCoSP4 3.50 +1.21 4.71
3L+2Lx 7.59 +0.70 8.29
FCSp4 3.20 +0.70 3.70
StSq4 3.90 +1.90 5.80
LSp4 2.70 +1.00 3.70

SS- 8.90
TR- 8.75
PE- 9.40
CH- 9.06
IN- 9.36

Base Value- 34.69
GOE- 8.51
TES- 43.20
PCS- 36.38
TSS- 79.58

It's very, very unlikely to happen but if she does that, she could very well score this high or higher if she wants to attempt the 3L-3L by then.

 

[CarneAsada]

Mao

3A 8.50 +2.00 10.50
3F 5.30 +1.00 6.30
CCoSP4 3.50 +1.21 4.71
3L+2Lx 7.59 +0.70 8.29
FCSp4 3.20 +0.70 3.70
StSq4 3.90 +1.90 5.80
LSp4 2.70 +1.00 3.70

SS- 8.90
TR- 8.75
PE- 9.40
CH- 9.06
IN- 9.36

Base Value- 34.69
GOE- 8.51
TES- 43.20
PCS- 36.38
TSS- 79.58

It's very, very unlikely to happen but if she does that, she could very well score this high or higher if she wants to attempt the 3L-3L by then.

Which programs are these numbers coming from?

 

[zamboni step]

Which programs are these numbers coming from?

Mao's score is more speculation as she's never skated 100% clean with this sort of content at an Olympic event, you have to consider that they will inflate all clean skates by the top contenders to the max. Her 3A could easily get +2s from all the judges, considering it was close enough at the 2013 4CC. Her 3F got +0.8 already at NHK and a 0.20 boost isn't exactly a huge leap. Her combination spin is just as good as Kim's was in that performance, even better in my opinion because it matches the musical structure more. Her 3L+2L received +0.6 at Skate America and that wasn't even executed to her best ability. She receive +0.79 for her flying camel at Skate America so I'm being conservative there. Her Steps received +1.80 and +2.00 in the SP and LP respectively, no need for explanation there. And finally her layback got +1.21 and +1.09 at Skate America and NHK respectively so again I'm being conservative.

PCS wise I'd expect a clean Olympic skate to receive at least .5 more in every segment and her personal PCS best is:
SS-8.64
TR- 8.25
PE- 8.61
CH- 8.71
IN- 8.75

 

[Peach]

Her PCS in the 2013 Worlds FS factorised to a SP instead is 36.8. I'll break down the numbers she'd get 78+ and then Mao to beat her. Keep in mind all the GOEs minus the flying camel are the exact GOEs she got at 2013 Worlds FS which wasn't the Olympics. And they do bump your score up a little at the Olympics because it attracts non-skating fans if the first even they watch has Season and personal bests left right and centre, rather than stingy low scoring which can be a little depressing to watch.

Kim

3Lz+3T 10.10 +1.90 12.00
3F 5.30 +1.90 7.30
FCSp4 3.20 +1.00 4.20 (the judges would be willing to give her +2s across the board with the usual quality of that spin)
LSp3 2.40 +1.07 3.47 (The GOE she gets for her layback is crazy, but it's still what they give her)
StSq4 3.90 +1.40 5.30
2Ax 3.63 +1.14 4.77
CCoSp4 3.50 +1.21 4.71

SS- 9.21
TR- 8.89
PE- 9.36
CH- 9.18
IN- 9.36

Base value- 32.03
GOE total- 9.63
TES- 41.65
PCS- 36.80
TSS- 78.45

Thank you for breaking it down for us. However, I still don't think that she will get those huge scores in the SP even if she skates perfectly. 37 for PCS seems way too high for a short program. But... who knows? Maybe you are right and she might break her world record

 

[zamboni step]

Thank you for breaking it down for us. However, I still don't think that she will get those huge scores in the SP even if she skates perfectly. 37 for PCS seems way too high for a short program. But... who knows? Maybe you are right and she might break her world record

But it's equally as high as 73.61 is for a long program which is exactly what she did last year. If she can skate like she did last year then she's pretty much guaranteed a new record.

 

[lcd]

I kind of think it will be a 'bit' harder for the Judges to hand out essentially "unbeatable" scores to Yuna during the Short program, given that she will be skating early in the event (not a seeded top 10 skater). Or at least, the historical "psychology" was to make sure to "save SOME room" for a skater who might still be to come later in the event.

 

[zamboni step]

I kind of think it will be a 'bit' harder for the Judges to hand out essentially "unbeatable" scores to Yuna during the Short program, given that she will be skating early in the event (not a seeded top 10 skater). Or at least, the historical "psychology" was to make sure to "save SOME room" for a skater who might still be to come later in the event.

That may be true, and if so she better hope none of the top skaters go clean or she could have quite the hole to dig herself out of despite going clean. Missing the GP is really going to hurt her, but I have a feeling the judges might not be so strict about leaving room as in their minds it's probably still a fight between her, Mao and maybe Carolina.