Can Yuna score over 74 points in the short program?

[Mathman]

Despite all those obstacles, Yuna wins every one's heart and respect -- her loving fans, skating peers, youngsters and seniors, media commentators, ISU judges... by the sheer beauty of her skating!

:yes:

Maybe the 2018 Winter Olympics will provide an opportunity to build some permanent facilities.

 

[thinspread]

Maybe YuNa's money would be better spent setting up a scholarship fund for promising young skaters to train in Canada or the U.S. (I'm almost tempted to say "to train in Japan," which is geographically closer, but one can just imagine the irony of that situation.) If Korea is too shortsighted to develop future skaters, then one has to figure out a way to sidestep the bureaucracy.

Dominant choice for Korean skaters' overseas training base/camp has been North America - the U.S. and Canada. About Japan, what I know is that it's not really that much better there in terms of ice surface availability. And the close location doesn't give much cost benefit for Korean skaters, since airfare represents only a small fraction of the total training costs.

In addition, nowadays there are actual concerns over tranparency regarding radiation level and foodstuff safety there, especially if one's considering a long-term stay. The recent passing by the Japanese parliament of the so-called Secrets Protection Act further adds to the concern.

:yes:

Maybe the 2018 Winter Olympics will provide an opportunity to build some permanent facilities.

Yes. For 2018 Olys Koreans are building a new arena for figure skating and short-track speed skating, two arenas for ice hockey, and one oval rink for long-track speed skating. All of them will be located in close proximity on the east coast of the country, far away from any metropolitan areas. Still, it will be beneficial for winter sport athletes, beyond 2018.

Building a new ice rink in or near Seoul metropolitan area is not a simple task. First, land price is too steep for a private developer to make it financially feasible. Also, there are complex regulatory hurdles for zoning change and private ownership grant, making it even further problematic for a private project. Local government's initiative and commitment is crucial, but none of them has delivered on their words so far.

 

[thinspread]

Let's continue with the discussion.

She earned around 73 for an otherwise clean skate except for a step-out on a 2a, at 80-90% level in terms of prepration after a month-long break with an injury. And that was with very modest GOE on her tech elements which were text-book as always, and with the ave. PCS well below 9.0, for her SP at Golden Spin.

What do you think? Can she break 74 with a clean performance? For your reference, like 3-4 top scores ever belong to Kim, ranging 78-76.

 

[Robeye]

Let's continue with the discussion.

She earned around 73 for an otherwise clean skate except for a step-out on a 2a, at 80-90% level in terms of prepration after a month-long break with an injury. And that was with very modest GOE on her tech elements which were text-book as always, and with the ave. PCS well below 9.0, for her SP at Golden Spin.

What do you think? Can she break 74 with a clean performance? For your reference, like 3-4 top scores ever belong to Kim, ranging 78-76.

Didn't you just answer your own question?

IMO, the question, given her SP skate today, has now evolved to: what is the reasonable scoring potential of this program? I believe we need to focus on two things:

-What are the peak historical scores for the relevant elements and components, which we judge to be reasonably applicable to a good performance of this program?

-What possible (reasonable and justifiable) adjustments could Team Yuna make to increase the scoring potential of the program? Or, alternatively, what adjustments do we think the team is likely to make, and the attendant scoring impact?

 

[RABID]

Let's continue with the discussion.

She earned around 73 for an otherwise clean skate except for a step-out on a 2a, at 80-90% level in terms of prepration after a month-long break with an injury. And that was with very modest GOE on her tech elements which were text-book as always, and with the ave. PCS well below 9.0, for her SP at Golden Spin.

What do you think? Can she break 74 with a clean performance? For your reference, like 3-4 top scores ever belong to Kim, ranging 78-76.

Of course she can. I know the NRW Trophy she skated in last year isn't a perfect example but just the same if you measure both her long and short there and then a few short months later at the Worlds the difference was, well, worlds apart. We know YuNa is capable of magic and she brings it out mostly at big competitions, the Olympics being the biggest of them all. When she does the judges can't help themselves showering her with high scores.

 

[pangtongfan]

Let's continue with the discussion.

She earned around 73 for an otherwise clean skate except for a step-out on a 2a, at 80-90% level in terms of prepration after a month-long break with an injury. And that was with very modest GOE on her tech elements which were text-book as always, and with the ave. PCS well below 9.0, for her SP at Golden Spin.

What do you think? Can she break 74 with a clean performance? For your reference, like 3-4 top scores ever belong to Kim, ranging 78-76.

She definitely is capable of atleast 76. Although if Mao does a clean short with both a 3axel and 3-3 she will probably outscore that, but even then not by enough to put the gold out of reach for Kim going into the long, or behind the 8 ball much (and as I mentioned in the other thread Mao hasnt done a totally clean SP yet).

 

[GF2445]

To answer the question- yes
The bigger question is if she can get close to her world record. Sice Vancouver, the ISU made some changes to the base value and GOE of elements ro increase the value of quad jumps. Consequently, this meant that the value of triples since Vancouver have decreased, nonetheless, it's Yuna- she is capable of dominating the competiton at Sochi.

 

[Robeye]

To answer the question- yes
The bigger question is if she can get close to her world record. Sice Vancouver, the ISU made some changes to the base value and GOE of elements ro increase the value of quad jumps. Consequently, this meant that the value of triples since Vancouver have decreased, nonetheless, it's Yuna- she is capable of dominating the competiton at Sochi.

I think you're right. On the other side of ledger, however, Yuna is now capable of scoring much, much higher in PCS than at Vancouver (as demonstrated in her London Worlds LP), and this past GP season implies a somewhat more generous environment this year. This is why I think Yuna has at least a chance if she is at the top of her game, and can bring the 9s and 10s in both the SP and the LP.

 

[pangtongfan]

I am not sure if she can go over 78 in the short program again. Even a well done double axel in Zagreb would have only given her 76 and change. So she would need to further improve her PCS and sharpen everything further to reach 78 plus. Another question is if Mao does a clean short with both the 3axel and 3-3 combo if she too can crack the 78 barrier and challlenge Kim's Vancouver SP WR with 1 more element, more points credited to GOEs, etc...

 

[andyjo24]

Of course she can. I know the NRW Trophy she skated in last year isn't a perfect example but just the same if you measure both her long and short there and then a few short months later at the Worlds the difference was, well, worlds apart. We know YuNa is capable of magic and she brings it out mostly at big competitions, the Olympics being the biggest of them all. When she does the judges can't help themselves showering her with high scores.

I totally agree! It always seems that the bigger and more important the competition, the better Yu-na performs. We need to give her time to refine her programs. She definitely deserves it.

 

[andyjo24]

I am not sure if she can go over 78 in the short program again. Even a well done double axel in Zagreb would have only given her 76 and change. So she would need to further improve her PCS and sharpen everything further to reach 78 plus. Another question is if Mao does a clean short with both the 3axel and 3-3 combo if she too can crack the 78 barrier and challlenge Kim's Vancouver SP WR with 1 more element, more points credited to GOEs, etc...

I definitely think it's possible for Kim to break 78 in the SP because of Olympic inflation. Remember in the 09-10 season when Kim always scored around 76 for her SP in the GP series, but then scored a 78.50 at the Olympics.

 

[pangtongfan]

I definitely think it's possible for Kim to break 78 in the SP because of Olympic inflation. Remember in the 09-10 season when Kim always scored around 76 for her SP in the GP series, but then scored a 78.50 at the Olympics.

Good point about Olympic inflation. It will be interesting if either Kim or Mao can come close to and challenge the 80 point barrier if either does a clean SP in Sochi. What are their maximum scores with their current planned jumps if they had all level 4s, all 3s in GOEs, and a perfect 40 in PCS (PS I know neither will get that, I just want to see how much wiggle room either would have to score that high).