Coming Close to the the GP Finals

[C_T_T_]

I'm confused on what breaks the ties. The first tie breaker is the better score of the two scores, but in case of Kostner and Murakami it still is in tie. If one goes to the second tie breaker, it is Flatt with the higher total scores.

Just trying to find out the system. Have no favorites here. The GPF is the final word.

First tie breaker is the higher finish. So Kostner and Murakami beat Flatt as 1st/3rd is better than 2nd/2nd. So Flatt is third of those three. Then to split Kostner and Murakami we hav eto use th esecond tie break which is the higher scores. Kostner has 319.48 and Murakami has 315.09 so Kostner is first. It doesn't matter that Rachael wins the second tie break because she already lost the first.

 

[Jammers]

At this point i would just want Mirai to get on the podium. Just a bronze at COC and she would have had a great chance at the GPF. She really makes it harder on herself then it needs to be. If she can't medal at TEB then i don't what to say about her anymore.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

First tie breaker is the higher finish. So Kostner and Murakami beat Flatt as 1st/3rd is better than 2nd/2nd. So Flatt is third of those three. Then to split Kostner and Murakami we hav eto use th esecond tie break which is the higher scores. Kostner has 319.48 and Murakami has 315.09 so Kostner is first. It doesn't matter that Rachael wins the second tie break because she already lost the first.

What we have now is a tie for 1st place and a 3rd place.
If Czisny wins France and Ando wins Russia, We have a new and a more favorable tie for 1st place. What we will have after the conclusion of the contest is Four definite Finalists and if we look at Makarova and Suzuki (France and Russia) and they are the silver medalists, we have them plus Rachael in a tie for 5th and 6th place with placements according to scores.

Unfortunately we have ascertained that Panels are not equals, so those scores can be unfair to the results. No?

My conclusion would be that 2 Silver medals do not necessarily get a skater a birth in the GPF. Of course, all of this is how well Ando, Czisny, Makarova and Suzuki actually do place.

 

[Mathman]

Unfortunately we have ascertained that Panels are not equals, so those scores can be unfair to the results. No?

True. But I do not see any way around it. If there is, say, a three-way tie for the last spot in the finals there has to be some way of deciding who gets to go. Anyway you do it will have a certain amount of unfairness.

My conclusion would be that 2 Silver medals do not necessarily get a skater a birth in the GPF. Of course, all of this is how well Ando, Czisny, Makarova and Suzuki actually do place.

I think the original idea, even before there was a grand prix circuit per se, was that there would be six major events, then the winners of those events would have a big skate-off at the end.

The problem was, the same skater might win two events (or three, back then). So they had to let in some second place finishers to fill the roster.

Under the current rules it could happen that two seconds would not be enough, but that is unlikely. Most years someone is able to sneak in with a silver and a bronze.

 

[burntBREAD]

At this point i would just want Mirai to get on the podium. Just a bronze at COC and she would have had a great chance at the GPF. She really makes it harder on herself then it needs to be. If she can't medal at TEB then i don't what to say about her anymore.

Ehh, the field at TEB is full of mines- skaters like Asada, Korpi, Czisny, Phaneuf can all score high on a good day (particularly Mao) and there are some newcomers like Imai there so it's not like it would be all about Mirai there; all those skaters have their own issues with inconsistency in their own right.

 

[R.D.]

LoL Remember, that Alissa has an actual twin!

?! really? I only know of her sister Amber.

 

[Sylvia]

?! really? I only know of her sister Amber.

Amber Czisny IS Alissa's (fraternal) twin.

 

[R.D.]

Amber Czisny IS Alissa's (fraternal) twin.

Oh and I didn't even know that...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Mathman - Regards the tie breakers. Unfair tiebreakers will demean FS. The only way to break a tie as it is in all other sports, is to have a "Run off" The 'Tiers' will meet before the Finals and skate either another SP or a series of elements w/o music.

 

[Blades of Passion]

It's amazing that two Bronze medals in the Men's Division is not enough to get one into the Finals.

Two Bronze medals is pretty much never enough to make the GPF, unless someone ahead of you withdraws before the competition.

 

[silverlake22]

Two Bronze medals is pretty much never enough to make the GPF, unless someone ahead of you withdraws before the competition.

Idk last year Tomas Verner was 1st alternate with a 2nd and 5th place finish and Johnny Weir qualified with a 4th and 2nd place finish and Jeremy qualified with a 5th and 1st place finish. Men can be pretty inconsistent in their placements early in the season and where there are so many withdrawals this season you never know what could happen. Also take into consideration that Adam was 3rd and 4th, Armin was 3rd but only has one event, and Jouby was 4th in China and has a tough event coming up in France. If Jouby is say 3rd at TEB then someone with a 3 and a 3 could make it.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Idk last year Tomas Verner was 1st alternate with a 2nd and 5th place finish and Johnny Weir qualified with a 4th and 2nd place finish and Jeremy qualified with a 5th and 1st place finish. Men can be pretty inconsistent in their placements early in the season and where there are so many withdrawals this season you never know what could happen. Also take into consideration that Adam was 3rd and 4th, Armin was 3rd but only has one event, and Jouby was 4th in China and has a tough event coming up in France. If Jouby is say 3rd at TEB then someone with a 3 and a 3 could make it.

Happy to see someone interested in the Men's Division. After 4 comps, we have:

Dai, the only sure one to make the Finals.

Nobi, with two silver medals (not unlike Rachael) will have to watch Chan and Kozuka both of whom also have 15 each and are in two different comps for their second. Nobi will battle it out with Abbott and Mroz. What we have now is:

1. Dai, already in GPF

2. Chan (15 pts.) Russia
3. Kozuka (15 pts.) France
4. Abbott (13 pts.) Russia
5. Mroz (13 pts.) France
6. Verner (11 pts.) Russia
7. Amodio (11 pts.) France
8. Reynolds (9 pts.) France
9. Joubert (9 pts.) France
10. Hanyu (9 pts.) France

I believe with luck, all of them have a chance at being in the GPF, but 4 of them won't make it. Your guess, is as good as mine.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I don't think Reynolds and Hanyu really have a chance. If they could only finish 4th in their home events, I doubt they will do well enough in France/Russia (Hanyu will be competing in Russia rather than France, btw, Joe). I predict that Mroz is off the podium in France as well and out of the GPF.

Joubert will rally to win in France and make the GPF. Kozuka will come 2nd and also make the GPF. Amodio will come 3rd and miss out.

In Russia, Patrick Chan will win and make the GPF. Jeremy Abbott will place 2nd and make the GPF. Tomas Verner will place 3rd and miss out.

Amodio and Verner will both have two Bronzes and yet they will both miss the GPF. Two Bronzes just isn't enough. The only way one of them makes it to the GPF like that is if Abbott is less than 4th in Russia (unlikely) or Joubert is lower than 2nd in France (possible, but I doubt it...Joubert skates best in these kinds of situations where he is trying to regain his reputation).

 

[burntBREAD]

I don't know if this is a reflection on me or not but is it bad that I always look at "Reynolds" whenever it appears in a post and go, "Hmm. Who's that again?"

 

[silverlake22]

I don't think Reynolds and Hanyu really have a chance. If they could only finish 4th in their home events, I doubt they will do well enough in France/Russia (Hanyu will be competing in Russia rather than France, btw, Joe). I predict that Mroz is off the podium in France as well and out of the GPF.

Joubert will rally to win in France and make the GPF. Kozuka will come 2nd and also make the GPF. Amodio will come 3rd and miss out.

In Russia, Patrick Chan will win and make the GPF. Jeremy Abbott will place 2nd and make the GPF. Tomas Verner will place 3rd and miss out.

Amodio and Verner will both have two Bronzes and yet they will both miss the GPF. Two Bronzes just isn't enough. The only way one of them makes it to the GPF like that is if Abbott is less than 4th in Russia (unlikely) or Joubert is lower than 2nd in France (possible, but I doubt it...Joubert skates best in these kinds of situations where he is trying to regain his reputation).

Seeing how Kozuka clobbered a pretty well skating Joubert at CoC I'm not sure Joubert winning TEB is going to happen, he'll have to really skate well.

As for COR, I'm not convinced Abbott will beat Verner, they always get very similar PCS and at their first events they put up nearly identical scores. To me it's a toss up as to who will best the other in Russia, and considering they both are inconsistent, there's a chance neither will end up on the podium. Also, if Chan pulls a SC again I'm not sure he'll be able to win if Abbott and/or Verner skate well.

Also, re Verner and Amodio, if they both place 2nd at their next event, which is definitely possible, then they likely will both make the GPF, right? Or is a bronze and a silver still not enough?

 

[FlattFan]

Seeing how Kozuka clobbered a pretty well skating Joubert at CoC I'm not sure Joubert winning TEB is going to happen, he'll have to really skate well.

As for COR, I'm not convinced Abbott will beat Verner, they always get very similar PCS and at their first events they put up nearly identical scores. To me it's a toss up as to who will best the other in Russia, and considering they both are inconsistent, there's a chance neither will end up on the podium. Also, if Chan pulls a SC again I'm not sure he'll be able to win if Abbott and/or Verner skate well.

Also, re Verner and Amodio, if they both place 2nd at their next event, which is definitely possible, then they likely will both make the GPF, right? Or is a bronze and a silver still not enough?

If Jouby wins TEB, Amodio silver, Kozuka bronze
and Abbot wins Russia, Verner silver, Chan bronze

then:
1. Dai
2. Kozuka
3. Chan
4. Oda
5. Jouby
6. Abbot

both Tomas and Amodio will miss the GPF with a bronze and a silver.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The opinions are there ^^^, and why not? However, the Slippery Sport rule applies.

Spunky Reynolds will hit his quads, and successfully skate clean. Will it matter with little reputation?

Jovial Joubert will impress his home town with solid Quads, and be himself. Will it be enough?

Danseur Hanyu will audition for the Paris Opera Ballet, but will he be ignored in TEB?

It ain't over till it's over.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Danseur Hanyu will audition for the Paris Opera Ballet, but will he be ignored in TEB?

Considered he's competing in Russia and not France, yes, I think so.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Considered he's competing in Russia and not France, yes, I think so.

Blades - I'm sorry for putting Hanyu in the wrong venue. When I take time to do something carefully, there is always something else, like ringing phones, buzzes from the doorman, or late for appointments making me careless. But then, I don't admit to being perfect, just highly opinionated.

 

[Blades of Passion]

LOL, I wasn't criticizing you!

I think that's the first time I've seen you use an eye-roll emoticon. arty: