- Joined
- Aug 4, 2015
For those of you who remember, I did a (very very long) pre-Grand Prix analysis/preview post for several disciplines last year. It was fun and I’ve got some time so I decided to do it again for the ladies. (It will probably be equally as long.)
Last year I divided the fields into two types: top-heavy and depth fields. However, I don’t think I can do that this year because ladies figure skating has become more and more challenging to predict, and many twists that unfolded near the end of last season blew the Olympic season wide open. Among these twists are the following:
1. The emergence of the Canadian ladies. Osmond and Daleman have had the talent for years to be near the top, but neither were able to get everything together until last season, and in a World Championships with multiple disappointing performances, they both brought their best to medal. It remains to be seen whether they can keep their consistency up throughout the Olympic season.
2. Pogorilaya’s fall from grace. After a nearly flawless season, Pogorilaya melted down at the World Championships and in doing so, changed the dynamic of the Russian Olympic race. No one knows which Pogorilaya will show up early in 2018, and how the judges will react to her performances.
3. The next generation arrives. It’s hard to believe someone who hasn’t skated in the Grand Prix before is an Olympic medal threat, but that’s exactly what Alina Zagitova is. Her jumping prowess has everyone noticing and, if she can keep performing as consistently as she has, she will be in the mix at Pyeongchang. Another one to keep an eye on is Marin Honda, who has all the makings of being a future star.
4. The Japanese bloodbath. Honda, Higuchi, Mihara, and Miyahara are all in contention for only TWO Japanese spots at the Olympics. The way Mihara and Higuchi have performed recently, it’s going to be a massive shame two of these skaters won’t be making it to the Olympics. Every skater has such a high ceiling and nothing has been determined.
I’m going to talk about each field individually and then pick my winners and losers of the draw.
Rostelecom Cup:
Top Seed: Medvedeva
Podium Favourites: Kostner, Higuchi, Radionova
Contenders: Tursynbaeva, Nagasu
Long Shots: Sakamoto, Bell
Medvedeva will win barring a shocker, and the way she’s been skating, I expect Higuchi to take silver. This is one of the few fields where I don’t expect any of the three contenders to factor into the podium race, because Kostner and Radionova tend to score at least somewhat well at every competition. Any podium that doesn’t consist of three of these four will be a surprise to me, although Nagasu could shock the world with a landed 3A.
Skate Canada:
Top Seed: Osmond
Podium Favourites: Pogorilaya, Sotskova
Contenders: Honda, Chen, Wagner
Long Shots: Chartrand, Hongo, Hicks
Unlike Rostelecom Cup, this is an event with tons of podium possibilities. Osmond looks in decent form to start the season and with the home crowd advantage, should win. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Honda and Sotskova are trending up to begin the season with strong performances at Challenger events, while Chen has been less than impressive and Pogorilaya and Wagner have not competed. What happens here could eliminate a lot of Grand Prix Final hopefuls in just the second week.
Cup of China:
Top Seed: Daleman
Podium Favourites: Higuchi, Mihara, Radionova, Zagitova
Contenders: Honda, Tuktamysheva
Long Shots: Li, Choi
Daleman is technically the top seed here, but the de facto favourite is Zagitova. If she is clean, I don’t think anyone in this field can touch her. Daleman will do well to win silver here, especially after her poor showing at Finlandia. Mihara and Higuchi have been great to start the year and Radionova as always will be in the mix. Honda again may factor in, as well as Tuktamysheva, who has shown glimpses of her past form recently but hasn’t put it all together yet.
NHK Trophy:
Top Seed: Medvedeva
Podium Favourites: Kostner, Miyahara
Contenders: Nagasu
Long Shots: Chartrand, Hongo, Shiraiwa, Tsurskaya, Bell
I see this as the weakest field of the six, because there isn’t that much depth. Medvedeva will have no trouble winning, and she will likely be flanked on both sides of the podium by Kostner and Miyahara. Miyahara is a big question mark after taking most of the last season off, but she’s coming back to her home event, which will be very beneficial. Should either skater falter, this is a great opportunity for Nagasu to shine. If she gets her 3A in here and rotates everything, she could come out of nowhere for a podium finish.
Internationaux de France:
Top Seed: Osmond
Podium Favourites: Mihara, Sotskova, Zagitova
Contenders: Tursynbaeva, Tuktamysheva
Long Shots: Li, Shiraiwa, Edmunds
This is another event where only the top 4 should factor into the podium. However, there are many different possible orders they could finish in. The battle between Zagitova and Osmond will be really fascinating to me; Osmond will need to be clean to have a shot at Zagitova, and if she is, it will be very close for first. Mihara and Sotskova are well in the mix and both have reason to be confident right now, so it would not be a surprise if either of them edged out Osmond for a silver medal should the Canadian waver.
Skate America:
Top Seed: Daleman
Podium Favourites: Miyahara, Pogorilaya
Contenders: Chen, Wagner
Long Shots: Sakamoto, Choi
A massive opportunity presents itself for the Americans at their home event. All three of the other big names are question marks to begin the season, and Chen and Wagner will have the home crowd behind them to get them to the grand prix. However, Daleman and Pogorilaya arguably have higher ceilings than both Americans when clean, and Miyahara will also get high scores if the judges rule in her favour.
Winners of the Draw:
Evgenia Medvedeva. Let’s be honest: every draw would be a win for Medvedeva. However, she has avoided Zagitova in both her events, who is probably the person she fears the most at this point. Expect Medvedeva to stroll into the GPF with the full 30 points.
Alina Zagitova. Another happy camper- she avoids Medvedeva! That makes two wins very possible for Zagitova, and at the very least, two podium finishes. Expect Zagitova to be around for the final as well.
Kaetlyn Osmond. She is almost assured a win at home, and if that happens, a podium finish at a more difficult field in France should be enough to carry Osmond to the Final. Mihara and Sotskova are two people she beat comfortably at the World Championships, and Osmond would only likely need to beat one of them to advance to the final.
Carolina Kostner. Kostner has drawn into two of the easier fields. Yes, she has Medvedeva in both events. However, there’s not much else depth in either event. I would consider her a bronze medal favourite in Russia as well as at the NHK trophy. Her PCS carries her in every event, and the inconsistency of other skaters could work to her advantage.
Satoko Miyahara. We don’t know much about how Miyahara is feeling this season. That being said, she has an excellent draw this season. NHK Trophy, where she’s at home, is an easy field where she really should take silver barring a Kostner miracle. Skate America becomes more difficult, but everyone in that field has had inconsistency issues recently, which makes it anyone’s game. She needs to be clean, but if she can rediscover her pre-injury form, she’s in great position to make the Final.
Losers:
Gabby Daleman. Her first event is so strong that it could put her out of contention for the Final immediately. Assuming she escapes with a medal, she will be under big pressure to skate well in America to qualify for the Final. There she will have to deal with Miyahara and Pogorilaya as well as two Americans who will likely get the benefit of the doubt on underrotation calls. A big challenge awaits Gabby if she wants to get to the Final.
Mai Mihara. Unfortunately, Mihara has drawn Zagitova in both events, which makes her road to the Final much tougher than it could be. She’ll also deal with top Canadians in both events who both beat her with a significant margin at the World Championships. If Mihara wants to make a statement by qualifying for the GPF, she cannot afford to make a mistake.
Elena Radionova. She made the GPF last year, but her draw this year as well as her current form will make it difficult to repeat. She’s drawn an on fire Higuchi in both events, and due to her lower ceiling, could finish as low as 7th or 8th in China even with a reasonable performance.
Karen Chen/Ashley Wagner. The bad thing about their draws aren’t really the fields that they’ve been put in—it’s the fact that they both are competing in the same events. These two are America’s top two, and any possibility of both of them competing at the Final are now gone. They must navigate a reasonably tough draw to get to the final- they’ve drawn Pogorilaya in both events, who has a higher cap than either of them, and must deal with Osmond and Sotskova in Canada and Daleman and Miyahara in America.
GPF Entry Predictions:
1. Medvedeva
2. Zagitova
3. Osmond
4. Higuchi
5. Mihara
6. Miyahara
___
7. Daleman
8. Pogorilaya
9. Sotskova
10. Wagner
Three Japanese ladies in the Final?!?!? Stranger things have happened in ladies’ figure skating.
What do you guys think, who do you guys have in the GPF? Your guess is as good as mine.
__________
ETA: Updates to Analysis after Skate Canada
With two rounds of the Grand Prix done, I thought I'd do a brief update on everyone's chances for the GPF and how things may shake out over the next few grand prix events. I'll edit this into the original post as well.
Likely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Kaetlyn Osmond.
Having won their first events, both Medvedeva and Osmond can finish as low as fourth in their next event and surely make it into the field- even fifth would give them somewhat of a chance. Medvedeva will win in Japan barring a catastrophe, and Osmond will surely finish fourth or higher even if she falters.
One foot in the door: Carolina Kostner, Maria Sotskova.
Carolina Kostner: Her second place finish in Russia was a surprise to many, given Higuchi's recent form. It does wonders for her GPF chances. In Japan, a second place finish would lock up a spot, and a third place finish would give her a reasonable chance, especially considering how high her combined score was in Russia. Potential competitors in her next event at the NHK Trophy include Medvedeva, Nagasu, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya. As I mentioned in my original post, a podium finish here is very doable for Carolina.
Maria Sotskova: Maria had a good showing in Canada, where she finished second behind Kaetlyn Osmond with two solid performances. As is the case with Kostner, a silver in her second event puts her into the final, whereas a bronze gives her a reasonable chance. However, her combined score of 192 is relatively low, and in a potential tiebreaker situation it is likely she would not be in a favourable position- she will want to avoid a third place finish if possible and fight for every point regardless. In France she will compete against Osmond, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova; finishing ahead of Osmond or Zagitova will be difficult even if she is clean, since she is prone to underrotating. She will need to be clean and hope the judges rule in her favour.
In with a shot: Wakaba Higuchi, Ashley Wagner.
Wakaba Higuchi: It is rare that you score 207 in a grand prix event and come up with only bronze. Higuchi will need a first place finish in China to directly qualify; second place gives her a good chance and third place gives her an outside shot at the GPF. China is a difficult field that includes Daleman, Radionova, Honda, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova. Radionova, Honda, and Tuktamysheva don't appear to be in the kind of form to beat Higuchi, but Daleman, Mihara, and Zagitova are all capable of 200+ scores at their best. Because Wakaba scored so highly in Russia, and because a theoretical silver medal in this stacked field would mean she did well, I think a silver medal would be good enough for Higuchi to qualify for the final. A bronze medal will put her in real jeopardy of missing out on the GPF.
Ashley Wagner: She back-doored a third place finish this week in Canada. 183, however, is a very low score for a bronze medal and would put her in all kinds of trouble if she were in any sort of tiebreaker when all six events are complete. Given this, I don't think a bronze will be enough for Ashley at Skate America and she needs second or higher for any chance. Even with a second place finish it will likely be difficult. She faces Sakamoto, Chen, Pogorilaya, Daleman, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya in her final event. Sakamoto finished 5th in Russia but still had a higher score than Ashley in Canada- in fact, 8 ladies in Russia had a higher combined score than Ashley did in Canada. Good news for Ashley is that she skates at home- whether or not she will get the calls she needs remains to be seen.
Barely breathing: Elena Radionova, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda.
Radionova is mathematically alive, but she would need a first or second place finish in China to keep her hopes afloat. Given her form and a stacked China field, I don't see this happening.
Sakamoto and Honda both would need to win their second events for any chance. Honda, like Radionova, skates this week in China and faces a difficult field. A win is likely too much to hope for. Sakamoto will have an outside shot at a win in America if she delivers two perfect programs and gets a lot of help, but again, it's not something you would bet on.
Notables that are already out: Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Anna Pogorilaya (and everyone else I have not mentioned so far who has already competed in an event).
Yet to skate: Gabby Daleman, Mai Mihara, Satoko Miyahara, Polina Tsurskaya, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Alina Zagitova.
Last year I divided the fields into two types: top-heavy and depth fields. However, I don’t think I can do that this year because ladies figure skating has become more and more challenging to predict, and many twists that unfolded near the end of last season blew the Olympic season wide open. Among these twists are the following:
1. The emergence of the Canadian ladies. Osmond and Daleman have had the talent for years to be near the top, but neither were able to get everything together until last season, and in a World Championships with multiple disappointing performances, they both brought their best to medal. It remains to be seen whether they can keep their consistency up throughout the Olympic season.
2. Pogorilaya’s fall from grace. After a nearly flawless season, Pogorilaya melted down at the World Championships and in doing so, changed the dynamic of the Russian Olympic race. No one knows which Pogorilaya will show up early in 2018, and how the judges will react to her performances.
3. The next generation arrives. It’s hard to believe someone who hasn’t skated in the Grand Prix before is an Olympic medal threat, but that’s exactly what Alina Zagitova is. Her jumping prowess has everyone noticing and, if she can keep performing as consistently as she has, she will be in the mix at Pyeongchang. Another one to keep an eye on is Marin Honda, who has all the makings of being a future star.
4. The Japanese bloodbath. Honda, Higuchi, Mihara, and Miyahara are all in contention for only TWO Japanese spots at the Olympics. The way Mihara and Higuchi have performed recently, it’s going to be a massive shame two of these skaters won’t be making it to the Olympics. Every skater has such a high ceiling and nothing has been determined.
I’m going to talk about each field individually and then pick my winners and losers of the draw.
Rostelecom Cup:
Top Seed: Medvedeva
Podium Favourites: Kostner, Higuchi, Radionova
Contenders: Tursynbaeva, Nagasu
Long Shots: Sakamoto, Bell
Medvedeva will win barring a shocker, and the way she’s been skating, I expect Higuchi to take silver. This is one of the few fields where I don’t expect any of the three contenders to factor into the podium race, because Kostner and Radionova tend to score at least somewhat well at every competition. Any podium that doesn’t consist of three of these four will be a surprise to me, although Nagasu could shock the world with a landed 3A.
Skate Canada:
Top Seed: Osmond
Podium Favourites: Pogorilaya, Sotskova
Contenders: Honda, Chen, Wagner
Long Shots: Chartrand, Hongo, Hicks
Unlike Rostelecom Cup, this is an event with tons of podium possibilities. Osmond looks in decent form to start the season and with the home crowd advantage, should win. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Honda and Sotskova are trending up to begin the season with strong performances at Challenger events, while Chen has been less than impressive and Pogorilaya and Wagner have not competed. What happens here could eliminate a lot of Grand Prix Final hopefuls in just the second week.
Cup of China:
Top Seed: Daleman
Podium Favourites: Higuchi, Mihara, Radionova, Zagitova
Contenders: Honda, Tuktamysheva
Long Shots: Li, Choi
Daleman is technically the top seed here, but the de facto favourite is Zagitova. If she is clean, I don’t think anyone in this field can touch her. Daleman will do well to win silver here, especially after her poor showing at Finlandia. Mihara and Higuchi have been great to start the year and Radionova as always will be in the mix. Honda again may factor in, as well as Tuktamysheva, who has shown glimpses of her past form recently but hasn’t put it all together yet.
NHK Trophy:
Top Seed: Medvedeva
Podium Favourites: Kostner, Miyahara
Contenders: Nagasu
Long Shots: Chartrand, Hongo, Shiraiwa, Tsurskaya, Bell
I see this as the weakest field of the six, because there isn’t that much depth. Medvedeva will have no trouble winning, and she will likely be flanked on both sides of the podium by Kostner and Miyahara. Miyahara is a big question mark after taking most of the last season off, but she’s coming back to her home event, which will be very beneficial. Should either skater falter, this is a great opportunity for Nagasu to shine. If she gets her 3A in here and rotates everything, she could come out of nowhere for a podium finish.
Internationaux de France:
Top Seed: Osmond
Podium Favourites: Mihara, Sotskova, Zagitova
Contenders: Tursynbaeva, Tuktamysheva
Long Shots: Li, Shiraiwa, Edmunds
This is another event where only the top 4 should factor into the podium. However, there are many different possible orders they could finish in. The battle between Zagitova and Osmond will be really fascinating to me; Osmond will need to be clean to have a shot at Zagitova, and if she is, it will be very close for first. Mihara and Sotskova are well in the mix and both have reason to be confident right now, so it would not be a surprise if either of them edged out Osmond for a silver medal should the Canadian waver.
Skate America:
Top Seed: Daleman
Podium Favourites: Miyahara, Pogorilaya
Contenders: Chen, Wagner
Long Shots: Sakamoto, Choi
A massive opportunity presents itself for the Americans at their home event. All three of the other big names are question marks to begin the season, and Chen and Wagner will have the home crowd behind them to get them to the grand prix. However, Daleman and Pogorilaya arguably have higher ceilings than both Americans when clean, and Miyahara will also get high scores if the judges rule in her favour.
Winners of the Draw:
Evgenia Medvedeva. Let’s be honest: every draw would be a win for Medvedeva. However, she has avoided Zagitova in both her events, who is probably the person she fears the most at this point. Expect Medvedeva to stroll into the GPF with the full 30 points.
Alina Zagitova. Another happy camper- she avoids Medvedeva! That makes two wins very possible for Zagitova, and at the very least, two podium finishes. Expect Zagitova to be around for the final as well.
Kaetlyn Osmond. She is almost assured a win at home, and if that happens, a podium finish at a more difficult field in France should be enough to carry Osmond to the Final. Mihara and Sotskova are two people she beat comfortably at the World Championships, and Osmond would only likely need to beat one of them to advance to the final.
Carolina Kostner. Kostner has drawn into two of the easier fields. Yes, she has Medvedeva in both events. However, there’s not much else depth in either event. I would consider her a bronze medal favourite in Russia as well as at the NHK trophy. Her PCS carries her in every event, and the inconsistency of other skaters could work to her advantage.
Satoko Miyahara. We don’t know much about how Miyahara is feeling this season. That being said, she has an excellent draw this season. NHK Trophy, where she’s at home, is an easy field where she really should take silver barring a Kostner miracle. Skate America becomes more difficult, but everyone in that field has had inconsistency issues recently, which makes it anyone’s game. She needs to be clean, but if she can rediscover her pre-injury form, she’s in great position to make the Final.
Losers:
Gabby Daleman. Her first event is so strong that it could put her out of contention for the Final immediately. Assuming she escapes with a medal, she will be under big pressure to skate well in America to qualify for the Final. There she will have to deal with Miyahara and Pogorilaya as well as two Americans who will likely get the benefit of the doubt on underrotation calls. A big challenge awaits Gabby if she wants to get to the Final.
Mai Mihara. Unfortunately, Mihara has drawn Zagitova in both events, which makes her road to the Final much tougher than it could be. She’ll also deal with top Canadians in both events who both beat her with a significant margin at the World Championships. If Mihara wants to make a statement by qualifying for the GPF, she cannot afford to make a mistake.
Elena Radionova. She made the GPF last year, but her draw this year as well as her current form will make it difficult to repeat. She’s drawn an on fire Higuchi in both events, and due to her lower ceiling, could finish as low as 7th or 8th in China even with a reasonable performance.
Karen Chen/Ashley Wagner. The bad thing about their draws aren’t really the fields that they’ve been put in—it’s the fact that they both are competing in the same events. These two are America’s top two, and any possibility of both of them competing at the Final are now gone. They must navigate a reasonably tough draw to get to the final- they’ve drawn Pogorilaya in both events, who has a higher cap than either of them, and must deal with Osmond and Sotskova in Canada and Daleman and Miyahara in America.
GPF Entry Predictions:
1. Medvedeva
2. Zagitova
3. Osmond
4. Higuchi
5. Mihara
6. Miyahara
___
7. Daleman
8. Pogorilaya
9. Sotskova
10. Wagner
Three Japanese ladies in the Final?!?!? Stranger things have happened in ladies’ figure skating.
What do you guys think, who do you guys have in the GPF? Your guess is as good as mine.
__________
ETA: Updates to Analysis after Skate Canada
With two rounds of the Grand Prix done, I thought I'd do a brief update on everyone's chances for the GPF and how things may shake out over the next few grand prix events. I'll edit this into the original post as well.
Likely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Kaetlyn Osmond.
Having won their first events, both Medvedeva and Osmond can finish as low as fourth in their next event and surely make it into the field- even fifth would give them somewhat of a chance. Medvedeva will win in Japan barring a catastrophe, and Osmond will surely finish fourth or higher even if she falters.
One foot in the door: Carolina Kostner, Maria Sotskova.
Carolina Kostner: Her second place finish in Russia was a surprise to many, given Higuchi's recent form. It does wonders for her GPF chances. In Japan, a second place finish would lock up a spot, and a third place finish would give her a reasonable chance, especially considering how high her combined score was in Russia. Potential competitors in her next event at the NHK Trophy include Medvedeva, Nagasu, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya. As I mentioned in my original post, a podium finish here is very doable for Carolina.
Maria Sotskova: Maria had a good showing in Canada, where she finished second behind Kaetlyn Osmond with two solid performances. As is the case with Kostner, a silver in her second event puts her into the final, whereas a bronze gives her a reasonable chance. However, her combined score of 192 is relatively low, and in a potential tiebreaker situation it is likely she would not be in a favourable position- she will want to avoid a third place finish if possible and fight for every point regardless. In France she will compete against Osmond, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova; finishing ahead of Osmond or Zagitova will be difficult even if she is clean, since she is prone to underrotating. She will need to be clean and hope the judges rule in her favour.
In with a shot: Wakaba Higuchi, Ashley Wagner.
Wakaba Higuchi: It is rare that you score 207 in a grand prix event and come up with only bronze. Higuchi will need a first place finish in China to directly qualify; second place gives her a good chance and third place gives her an outside shot at the GPF. China is a difficult field that includes Daleman, Radionova, Honda, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova. Radionova, Honda, and Tuktamysheva don't appear to be in the kind of form to beat Higuchi, but Daleman, Mihara, and Zagitova are all capable of 200+ scores at their best. Because Wakaba scored so highly in Russia, and because a theoretical silver medal in this stacked field would mean she did well, I think a silver medal would be good enough for Higuchi to qualify for the final. A bronze medal will put her in real jeopardy of missing out on the GPF.
Ashley Wagner: She back-doored a third place finish this week in Canada. 183, however, is a very low score for a bronze medal and would put her in all kinds of trouble if she were in any sort of tiebreaker when all six events are complete. Given this, I don't think a bronze will be enough for Ashley at Skate America and she needs second or higher for any chance. Even with a second place finish it will likely be difficult. She faces Sakamoto, Chen, Pogorilaya, Daleman, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya in her final event. Sakamoto finished 5th in Russia but still had a higher score than Ashley in Canada- in fact, 8 ladies in Russia had a higher combined score than Ashley did in Canada. Good news for Ashley is that she skates at home- whether or not she will get the calls she needs remains to be seen.
Barely breathing: Elena Radionova, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda.
Radionova is mathematically alive, but she would need a first or second place finish in China to keep her hopes afloat. Given her form and a stacked China field, I don't see this happening.
Sakamoto and Honda both would need to win their second events for any chance. Honda, like Radionova, skates this week in China and faces a difficult field. A win is likely too much to hope for. Sakamoto will have an outside shot at a win in America if she delivers two perfect programs and gets a lot of help, but again, it's not something you would bet on.
Notables that are already out: Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Anna Pogorilaya (and everyone else I have not mentioned so far who has already competed in an event).
Yet to skate: Gabby Daleman, Mai Mihara, Satoko Miyahara, Polina Tsurskaya, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Alina Zagitova.
This was a great read.
