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2017 Ladies' Grand Prix Preview/Analysis
- Thread starter Daniel1998
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Agreed. I don't care about nationality either.
Hence why I love Kaetlyn even though I'm not Canadian.
Anyway, what do predictions matter? I think I've more faith in Kaetlyn than some here, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. What anyone THINKS might happen, and what actually WILL happen, are two different things. Note: I certainly hope Kaetlyn makes the GPF, for I'll miss her if she does not.
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It would be a pretty big upset if she didn't. She's all but locked to win at home and France isn't the toughest field. Pretty good for an away game although Alina will definitely challenge her. Getting the home event first will help build momentum and the Season's Best scores which usually grow in an Olympic season.
I don't think she's significantly better than someone like Masha who she faces at both events but being the face of a federation comes with benefits I do hope that someday Masha herself can experience
I gotta ask.... Will Liza get a 3a this season? That would be nice to see and a game changer!
It would be a pretty big upset if she didn't. She's all but locked to win at home and France isn't the toughest field. Pretty good for an away game although Alina will definitely challenge her. Getting the home event first will help build momentum and the Season's Best scores which usually grow in an Olympic season.
I don't think she's significantly better than someone like Masha who she faces at both events but being the face of a federation comes with benefits I do hope that someday Masha herself can experience
I gotta ask.... Will Liza get a 3a this season? That would be nice to see and a game changer!
I dont think Liza will get a 3a this season. She has troubles landing and rotating her other jumps, and Mirai just showed us what happens when you do a 3a and bomb everything else. Actually, Mao showed us a lot of what happens when you 3a and then mess up other jumps.
Currently, 3a is only worth it if a skater can land the other triples with some consistency. Else, even if the skater manages to skate 2 clean programs back to back once in the season, the lack of momentum will cause a PCs loss which will kill all the possible 3a advantage.
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Is that an old joke
Omfg, hahaha.
You're terrible. Side-note, can she bring back her alcoholic tango from 2014?? I'm also OK with her "Daddy's Little Monster" short from last year. I'm still seriously so impressed that she managed to snag 2 Grand Prix's with all the depth in Russia. What a bad@ss.
I didn't even remember Leonova being there
Gabby looked rough but she's recovering from injury and not in top form. That makes a difference.
I hope she changes that awful piano arrangement music for her free. It does not suit her style of skating at all.
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- Feb 11, 2017
*Logs on to Goldenskate for the first time in a while*
*Sees someone having a meltdown because their fave isn't everyone's fave*
*Slowly backs away*
*Sees someone having a meltdown because their fave isn't everyone's fave*
*Slowly backs away*
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Welcome to our everyday. This is just another Tuesday here
And as the competitions get closer, the meltdowns get harder :sarcasm:
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- Aug 4, 2015
UPDATES: Analysis after Skate Canada
With two rounds of the Grand Prix done, I thought I'd do a brief update on everyone's chances for the GPF and how things may shake out over the next few grand prix events. I'll edit this into the original post as well.
Likely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Kaetlyn Osmond.
Having won their first events, both Medvedeva and Osmond can finish as low as fourth in their next event and surely make it into the field- even fifth would give them somewhat of a chance. Medvedeva will win in Japan barring a catastrophe, and Osmond will surely finish fourth or higher even if she falters.
One foot in the door: Carolina Kostner, Maria Sotskova.
Carolina Kostner: Her second place finish in Russia was a surprise to many, given Higuchi's recent form. It does wonders for her GPF chances. In Japan, a second place finish would lock up a spot, and a third place finish would give her a reasonable chance, especially considering how high her combined score was in Russia. Potential competitors in her next event at the NHK Trophy include Medvedeva, Nagasu, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya. As I mentioned in my original post, a podium finish here is very doable for Carolina.
Maria Sotskova: Maria had a good showing in Canada, where she finished second behind Kaetlyn Osmond with two solid performances. As is the case with Kostner, a silver in her second event puts her into the final, whereas a bronze gives her a reasonable chance. However, her combined score of 192 is relatively low, and in a potential tiebreaker situation it is likely she would not be in a favourable position- she will want to avoid a third place finish if possible and fight for every point regardless. In France she will compete against Osmond, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova; finishing ahead of Osmond or Zagitova will be difficult even if she is clean, since she is prone to underrotating. She will need to be clean and hope the judges rule in her favour.
In with a shot: Wakaba Higuchi, Ashley Wagner.
Wakaba Higuchi: It is rare that you score 207 in a grand prix event and come up with only bronze. Higuchi will need a first place finish in China to directly qualify; second place gives her a good chance and third place gives her an outside shot at the GPF. China is a difficult field that includes Daleman, Radionova, Honda, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova. Radionova, Honda, and Tuktamysheva don't appear to be in the kind of form to beat Higuchi, but Daleman, Mihara, and Zagitova are all capable of 200+ scores at their best. Because Wakaba scored so highly in Russia, and because a theoretical silver medal in this stacked field would mean she did well, I think a silver medal would be good enough for Higuchi to qualify for the final. A bronze medal will put her in real jeopardy of missing out on the GPF.
Ashley Wagner: She back-doored a third place finish this week in Canada. 183, however, is a very low score for a bronze medal and would put her in all kinds of trouble if she were in any sort of tiebreaker when all six events are complete. Given this, I don't think a bronze will be enough for Ashley at Skate America and she needs second or higher for any chance. Even with a second place finish it will likely be difficult. She faces Sakamoto, Chen, Pogorilaya, Daleman, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya in her final event. Sakamoto finished 5th in Russia but still had a higher score than Ashley in Canada- in fact, 8 ladies in Russia had a higher combined score than Ashley did in Canada. Good news for Ashley is that she skates at home- whether or not she will get the calls she needs remains to be seen.
Barely breathing: Elena Radionova, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda.
Radionova is mathematically alive, but she would need a first or second place finish in China to keep her hopes afloat. Given her form and a stacked China field, I don't see this happening.
Sakamoto and Honda both would need to win their second events for any chance. Honda, like Radionova, skates this week in China and faces a difficult field. A win is likely too much to hope for. Sakamoto will have an outside shot at a win in America if she delivers two perfect programs and gets a lot of help, but again, it's not something you would bet on.
Notables that are already out: Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Anna Pogorilaya (and everyone else I have not mentioned so far who has already competed in an event).
Yet to skate: Gabby Daleman, Mai Mihara, Satoko Miyahara, Polina Tsurskaya, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Alina Zagitova.
With two rounds of the Grand Prix done, I thought I'd do a brief update on everyone's chances for the GPF and how things may shake out over the next few grand prix events. I'll edit this into the original post as well.
Likely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Kaetlyn Osmond.
Having won their first events, both Medvedeva and Osmond can finish as low as fourth in their next event and surely make it into the field- even fifth would give them somewhat of a chance. Medvedeva will win in Japan barring a catastrophe, and Osmond will surely finish fourth or higher even if she falters.
One foot in the door: Carolina Kostner, Maria Sotskova.
Carolina Kostner: Her second place finish in Russia was a surprise to many, given Higuchi's recent form. It does wonders for her GPF chances. In Japan, a second place finish would lock up a spot, and a third place finish would give her a reasonable chance, especially considering how high her combined score was in Russia. Potential competitors in her next event at the NHK Trophy include Medvedeva, Nagasu, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya. As I mentioned in my original post, a podium finish here is very doable for Carolina.
Maria Sotskova: Maria had a good showing in Canada, where she finished second behind Kaetlyn Osmond with two solid performances. As is the case with Kostner, a silver in her second event puts her into the final, whereas a bronze gives her a reasonable chance. However, her combined score of 192 is relatively low, and in a potential tiebreaker situation it is likely she would not be in a favourable position- she will want to avoid a third place finish if possible and fight for every point regardless. In France she will compete against Osmond, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova; finishing ahead of Osmond or Zagitova will be difficult even if she is clean, since she is prone to underrotating. She will need to be clean and hope the judges rule in her favour.
In with a shot: Wakaba Higuchi, Ashley Wagner.
Wakaba Higuchi: It is rare that you score 207 in a grand prix event and come up with only bronze. Higuchi will need a first place finish in China to directly qualify; second place gives her a good chance and third place gives her an outside shot at the GPF. China is a difficult field that includes Daleman, Radionova, Honda, Mihara, Tuktamysheva, and Zagitova. Radionova, Honda, and Tuktamysheva don't appear to be in the kind of form to beat Higuchi, but Daleman, Mihara, and Zagitova are all capable of 200+ scores at their best. Because Wakaba scored so highly in Russia, and because a theoretical silver medal in this stacked field would mean she did well, I think a silver medal would be good enough for Higuchi to qualify for the final. A bronze medal will put her in real jeopardy of missing out on the GPF.
Ashley Wagner: She back-doored a third place finish this week in Canada. 183, however, is a very low score for a bronze medal and would put her in all kinds of trouble if she were in any sort of tiebreaker when all six events are complete. Given this, I don't think a bronze will be enough for Ashley at Skate America and she needs second or higher for any chance. Even with a second place finish it will likely be difficult. She faces Sakamoto, Chen, Pogorilaya, Daleman, Miyahara, and Tsurskaya in her final event. Sakamoto finished 5th in Russia but still had a higher score than Ashley in Canada- in fact, 8 ladies in Russia had a higher combined score than Ashley did in Canada. Good news for Ashley is that she skates at home- whether or not she will get the calls she needs remains to be seen.
Barely breathing: Elena Radionova, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda.
Radionova is mathematically alive, but she would need a first or second place finish in China to keep her hopes afloat. Given her form and a stacked China field, I don't see this happening.
Sakamoto and Honda both would need to win their second events for any chance. Honda, like Radionova, skates this week in China and faces a difficult field. A win is likely too much to hope for. Sakamoto will have an outside shot at a win in America if she delivers two perfect programs and gets a lot of help, but again, it's not something you would bet on.
Notables that are already out: Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Anna Pogorilaya (and everyone else I have not mentioned so far who has already competed in an event).
Yet to skate: Gabby Daleman, Mai Mihara, Satoko Miyahara, Polina Tsurskaya, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Alina Zagitova.
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Uh-oh, it’ll be hard for Sotskova in France, going up against Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara.
And oh great, another nail biter this week , with Daleman and Tuktamysheva and Radionova, all of whom have a shot at the silver behind Zagitova, but all of whom can totally blow it!!
And oh great, another nail biter this week , with Daleman and Tuktamysheva and Radionova, all of whom have a shot at the silver behind Zagitova, but all of whom can totally blow it!!
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- Oct 20, 2017
That's what I'm excited about, the unknown!! I adore Medvedeva and never take for granted she will win her events (though her chances are usually excellent) so I'm so tense waiting to see the scores, but for China I'm not overly invested in any single skater, so I think I'll be more relaxed watching everyone haha.
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- Oct 20, 2017
After 4 events and looking back at the original predictions...we might not have a single Japanese skater in the Grand Prix Ladies Line Up...we could be heading for 4 Russians again...plus an Italian and a Canadian
Carolina Kostner
Evgenia Medvedeva
Kaetlyn Osmond
Maria Sotskova
Polina Tsurskaya
Alina Zagitova
but then i realized I forgot about Higuichi...she is most likely to replace Sotskova based on scores on how hard the Skate Canada were...
Carolina Kostner
Evgenia Medvedeva
Kaetlyn Osmond
Maria Sotskova
Polina Tsurskaya
Alina Zagitova
but then i realized I forgot about Higuichi...she is most likely to replace Sotskova based on scores on how hard the Skate Canada were...
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I think Medvedeva, Zagitova and Osmond are the saffest bet (but still we should keeping in mind the presure is big and they are humans after all). For remaining three spots it will be a battle, but for now Higuchi, Mihara and Sotskova looks they are in best shape to get in. Ashley and Caro are the dark horses and i think they could easily be in (with clean-ish skating). Satoko, Anna and Polina are still training to be back on track and they will probably be in best shape later for nationals, but you never know with the injuries problems (and in juries problems)
So, i was right even before GP started
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