nymkfan51 said:
But you see, here is where I have a bit of a different feeling abou that. I contend that you cannot assume a skater would skate the same performance in the LP if their placement in the SP was say 3rd, instead of 1st. Now probably Irina would have won anyway, but there is no way to be sure of that. With all the pressure she had put on herself to win in Moscow, what if she had been 3rd or 4th in the short (where she belonged, IMO). As it was, she had to feel some sense of relief that she could skate not at her best, and still come out with those high scores ... plus, that maybe she didn't have to be absolutely perfect in the LP. My thinking is that could have eased some of the pressure and allowed her to skate more freely in the long.
I could also be completely wrong ... but we will never know how things would have turned out if the judging had been different.
This reasoning would be pertinent to 6.0, but not nearly as much under CoP, at least in Moscow, when the margins are so small. While looking element by element I could argue that she should have lost a few points here or there, even based on the .25 factored standings from the quali rounds, the only skater she would have been behind was Cohen, and then just barely. Even so, her quali skate was 4.5 points higher than Cohen's, and that didn't include the higher base difficulty in her LP. I don't think Slutskaya would have been terribly worried about the LP, if she were marginally out of the lead after the SP. (The media might have made a big deal of it.) Kwan and Kostner, who were both comparatively undermarked in pre in my opinion, were far enough behind after the quali round that they wouldn't have moved ahead of Slutskaya after the SP, even with a shift of a couple of points.
I thought Cohen herself was overmarked for a rather tepid performance of her SP, including a shaky spiral sequence in which she lost her hand grip and in which her edge was tentative as she tried to rebalance on one phase, and she still received +GOE on it, with only on -1 mark, and little impact on her PCS. If Slutskaya was inconsistent technically, she wasn't muted.
Plushenko had a dilemma, because, while he and Lambiel were in a virtual tie after the quali round, he dropped 7 points in the SP. If both skaters had matched their performance in the quali round in the LP, that margin would have held. Ironically, Lambiel's score in the LP was 7.82 points less than his score in the quali round, but Plushenko was in too much pain from double hernias and his knee to even attempt to match his quali skate. Because Plushenko was so far behind after the SP, I don't think the pressure on Lambiel, Joubert, and Buttle would have been any different if EP had skated: all three knew the world title was in their grasp and that EP was ailing.