Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation

[sarama]

I think they would put virtue moir and weaver poje at skate canada.

Since W/P were 5th they will have to be at events with one of the top 3 teams at worlds, if you add V/M to the mix they could easily be 3rd putting at risk their GPF qualification.... so I hope Canadian fed is smart not to pick both V/M and W/P for skate Canada, but they don't always make the wisest decisions so who knows!

Now two 'very important' questions:
Does anybody know if McNamara/Carpenter or the Parsons will move to seniors?

And Wakaba's moving up to senior as well. If I remember the rule correctly, Wakaba and Masha are guaranteed a spot because of their podium finish at JW and will definitely get 2 spots anyway.

I assume Masha is moving up, but will Wakaba? I am not so sure because she didn't have exactly a dream season and there are so many Japanese ladies.... I hope she does thoug

 

[invisiblespiral]

Pairs analysis:

We have 48 slots.

Top 12 at worlds get 2, so that's 24 slots.

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Sui/Han
3. Savchenko/Massot
4. Stolbova/Klimov
5. Tarasova/Morozov
6. Volosozhar/Trankov
7. Iliusheckina/Moscovich
8. Moore-Towers/Marinaro
9. Scimeca/Knierim
10. James/Cipres
11. Della-Monica/Guarise
12. Peng/Zhang

(If S/H take the season off after she gets surgery and V/T retire, does that move Kayne/O'Shea and Marchei/Hotarek into the guaranteed 2 category?)

Top 24 SB list, assuming the above doesn't happen:

6. Kavaguti/Smirnov (also 6 WS, probably getting 2 unless they retire)
9. Seguin/Bilodeau (also 17 WS, probably getting 2)
11. Yu/Jin (also 10 WS, probably getting 2)
12. Zabijako/Enbert (also 47 WS, probably getting 1)
16. Wang/Wang (also 30 WS, probably getting 1)
18. Astakhova/Rogonov (also 14 WS, probably getting 2)
19. Marchei/Hotarek (also 18 WS, probably getting 2)
20. Kayne/O'Shea (also 12 WS, probably getting 2)
21. Duskova/Bidar (guaranteed 2 as junior world medalists.)
22. Bazarova/Deputat (also 20 WS, probably getting 2)
23. Vartmann/Blommaert (also 36 WS, probably getting 1)
24. Castelli/Tran (also 29 WS, probably getting 1)

As I was stupidly over-optimistic about how this worked, I accidentally gave all of them 2 slots at first. (Sorry...) But, that leaves us with 4 slots to fill, instead of zero.

Let's go to the top 24 WS list:

13. Denney/Frazier (are they still injured? Probably getting 1)
15. Ziegler/Kiefer (also 33 SB, probably getting 1)
22. Fedorova/Miroshkin (why didn't they compete this year? Probably getting 1)
23. Grenier/Deschanmps (also 28 SB, probably getting 1 unless they get a host-pick.)
24. Calalang/Sidhu (also 35 SB, could be locked out unless they get a host-pick)

So... assuming everyone I mentioned above gets a slot, we still are out of them.

But, if D/F and F/M don't get any, we have one left. Maybe 2, if C/S don't get one either.

Now, let's go down the SB list.

25. Mishina/Mirozoev (are they moving up? If they are, they get 2)
29. Ryom/Kim (I have no idea if they could realistically get some events.)
32. Oganesian/Bardei (are they moving up? They're also WS 35... so 1 or 2 if there are extra slots.)
34. Pfund/Santillian (also WS 81, probably getting 1 if they don't get locked out.)

Host picks:

France: Esbrat/Novoselov, and no one else?

Japan: Suto/Audet, and no one else?

Pairs needs more slots. This is annoying.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Nan Song has retired...

Oops. I'll change that.

 

[tulosai]

Pairs analysis:

(If S/H take the season off after she gets surgery and V/T retire, does that move Kayne/O'Shea and Marchei/Hotarek into the guaranteed 2 category?)

No.

Assuming all these guys get 2, that leaves us with all of the slots filled.

So assuming that some of these guys get 1, let's go to the top 24 WS list:

The top 24 WS are guaranteed 1, so some of the top 24 is the SB will definitely only get 1- in fact possibly the majority of them when you also account for host picks. Like dance, pairs is really rough. I'd definitely change the majority of them from probably getting 2, because sadly they just aren't.

 

[invisiblespiral]

The top 24 WS are guaranteed 1, so some of the top 24 is the SB will definitely only get 1- in fact possibly the majority of them when you also account for host picks. Like dance, pairs is really rough. I'd definitely change the majority of them from probably getting 2, because sadly they just aren't.

Oops. Sorry...

 

[tulosai]

Oops. Sorry...

No reason to be sorry this stuff is kind of complicated Hope I didn't sound harsh, just trying to be informational

 

[Layback11]

Not anything scientific, but my seed predictions:

Ladies-

Skate America: Ashley Wagner (could be Gracie but I imagine they'd want their world medalist at SA), Elena Radionova (gut feeling )

Skate Canada: Evgenia Medvedeva (why not?), Satoko Miyahara (also why not? )

TEB: Anna Pogorilaya (she did well there in 2013), Gracie Gold (I think it's her lucky event )

COC: Ashley Wagner (she's never competed there), Elena Radionova (had to put someone here and I don't think the Russian fed would risk her not making the final so much as to put her with Evgenia)

COR: Evgenia Medvedeva (duh), Gracie Gold (because Satoko is obviously getting NHK)

NHK: Anna Pogorilaya (only spot left), Satoko Miyahara (duh)

Dance-

Skate America: Shibs (could be C/B but I doubt it), Hubbell/Donohue (more Americans...)

Skate Canada: Papadakis/Cizeron, Weaver/Poje (duh)

TEB: Papadakis/Cizeron (duh), Cappellini/Lanotte

COC: Chock/Bates, Cappellini/Lanotte

NHK: Shibs, Hubbell/Donohue

 

[Perdita]

I assume Masha is moving up, but will Wakaba? I am not so sure because she didn't have exactly a dream season and there are so many Japanese ladies.... I hope she does thoug

She said so after JW. She's 15 with two medals at JW and I don't see any reason for her to stay in junior... and since she's looking for a chance at Olympic 2018, she definitely should move up to senior next season imo.

 

[RemyRose]

Not anything scientific, but my seed predictions:

Ladies-

Skate America: Ashley Wagner (could be Gracie but I imagine they'd want their world medalist at SA), Elena Radionova (gut feeling )

Skate Canada: Evgenia Medvedeva (why not?), Satoko Miyahara (also why not? )

TEB: Anna Pogorilaya (she did well there in 2013), Gracie Gold (I think it's her lucky event )

COC: Ashley Wagner (she's never competed there), Elena Radionova (had to put someone here and I don't think the Russian fed would risk her not making the final so much as to put her with Evgenia)

COR: Evgenia Medvedeva (duh), Gracie Gold (because Satoko is obviously getting NHK)

NHK: Anna Pogorilaya (only spot left), Satoko Miyahara (duh)

Dance-

Skate America: Shibs (could be C/B but I doubt it), Hubbell/Donohue (more Americans...)

Skate Canada: Papadakis/Cizeron, Weaver/Poje (duh)

TEB: Papadakis/Cizeron (duh), Cappellini/Lanotte

COC: Chock/Bates, Cappellini/Lanotte

NHK: Shibs, Hubbell/Donohue

Bless Evgenia if she decides to do SC and then a week later RC I'll give her mad props. But since she likes Sailor Moon and can recite the theme song in Japanese maybe she will choose NHK Video: https://twitter.com/mkm5810/status/716609576531943425

 

[sarama]

She said so after JW. She's 15 with two medals at JW and I don't see any reason for her to stay in junior... and since she's looking for a chance at Olympic 2018, she definitely should move up to senior next season imo.

I didn't know that, thanks! I really think is a wise decision, winning JWC is not that important and moving senior next year is the only advantage she will have over Marin, Yuna S, and many others to get on the Olympic team. I mean Japanese junior ladies are phenomenal and the seniors are certainly not going anywhere 'til 2018!

 

[cheerknithanson]

My biggest question is: Will Kevin Reynolds get a GP assignment this season. Like he DID medal at nationals and alright he didn't do so hot in the SP at 4CC but he did better at the Sportland Trophy (Still have a pinch of anguish that he didn't get the TES minimum though but I'm happy what I saw when I went to see the men's FP at Worlds)....I mean is it enough?

And he hasn't done any GP since the 2012-2013 season....which was when I was a senior in high school (12th grade)....yikes.....

 

[ice coverage]

COC: Ashley Wagner (she's never competed there) ...

Actually, Ashley already has competed at Cup of China. 2008.

She has competed at all six events in the Grand Prix series. (Plus the Final .)

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00008996.htm

 

[4everchan]

re weapo

where do you place them for their #2 ????

and what about vm ?

Not anything scientific, but my seed predictions:

Ladies-

Skate America: Ashley Wagner (could be Gracie but I imagine they'd want their world medalist at SA), Elena Radionova (gut feeling )

Skate Canada: Evgenia Medvedeva (why not?), Satoko Miyahara (also why not? )

TEB: Anna Pogorilaya (she did well there in 2013), Gracie Gold (I think it's her lucky event )

COC: Ashley Wagner (she's never competed there), Elena Radionova (had to put someone here and I don't think the Russian fed would risk her not making the final so much as to put her with Evgenia)

COR: Evgenia Medvedeva (duh), Gracie Gold (because Satoko is obviously getting NHK)

NHK: Anna Pogorilaya (only spot left), Satoko Miyahara (duh)

Dance-

Skate America: Shibs (could be C/B but I doubt it), Hubbell/Donohue (more Americans...)

Skate Canada: Papadakis/Cizeron, Weaver/Poje (duh)

TEB: Papadakis/Cizeron (duh), Cappellini/Lanotte

COC: Chock/Bates, Cappellini/Lanotte

NHK: Shibs, Hubbell/Donohue

 

[tulosai]

My biggest question is: Will Kevin Reynolds get a GP assignment this season. Like he DID medal at nationals and alright he didn't do so hot in the SP at 4CC but he did better at the Sportland Trophy (Still have a pinch of anguish that he didn't get the TES minimum though but I'm happy what I saw when I went to see the men's FP at Worlds)....I mean is it enough?

And he hasn't done any GP since the 2012-2013 season....which was when I was a senior in high school (12th grade)....yikes.....

Who I'd really like to see get one is the North Korean pair team, but, while technically possible, it honestly doesn't look good for them based on the pairs analysis posted earlier While I don't really feel that pairs needs more spots like dance does, it still might be nice really

 

[chuckm]

In PAIRS and DANCE, only the TOP TEN AT WORLDS are guaranteed two events, not top 12, because there are only 8 participants per event in these disciplines. Top 12 would take up half the available slots.

 

[gsyzf]

Men:
Javier Fernandez: SC & TEB
Yuzuru Hanyu: COR & NHK
Boyang Jin: SA & COC

 

[Tolstoj]

I am pretty sure Maria Sotskova will compete at Skate America: usually new Russian prodigies uses to skate in Skate America or Skate Canada as a big first test, plus she trains with Arutyunyan's staff in US.

Also i think Ashley and Gracie (surely Gracie) will stay away from the Rostelecom Cup as usual.

 

[krispy]

Is it only the top 12 in worlds and top 24 in WR that are guaranteed a spot? Does rankings or SB get the priority for GP spots?

 

[tulosai]

Is it only the top 12 in worlds and top 24 in WR that are guaranteed a spot? Does rankings or SB get the priority for GP spots?

There is no initial priority. Basically:

-The top finishers at Worlds get 2 spots each.
-The top 24 in the World Ranking are each guaranteed 1 spot (if they already have spots from Worlds, they don't get more)
-The top 24 on the Seasons Best List are each guaranteed 1 spot (if they already have a spots from Worlds OR a spot from the world rankings list, they are NOT guaranteed an additional spot- they are still only guaranteed 1).

-Once all that is done, any additional spots are assigned on the basis of who is next highest on the Seasons Best list. This process can get somewhat political- generally if you are high enough on it you will end up getting 2 spots but basically a host federation can choose anyone from the top 5 skaters on there that do not yet have 2 spots, so crazy things can sometimes happen.

Does this make sense?

 

[cathlen]

LADIES

For sure:
1. Evgenia gets CoR
2. Ashley gets SA
3. Satoko gets NHK
4. Gabi Daleman gets SC
5. Zijun gets CoC

What I think:
6. Mae Maite gets TEB
7. Kanako gets NHK
8. Angelina gets TEB
9. Elizabet gets SC
10. Mao gets CoC
11. Liza T. gets TEB
or/and
12. Julia gets TEB
13. Mao gets CoR
14. Elena gets NHK
15. Kaetlyn Osmond gets SA
16. Gracie Gold gets SC

MEN

For sure:
1. Yuzu gets NHK
2. Patrick gets SC
3. Adam Rippon gets SA
4. Mika Kolyada gets CoR
5. Boyang gets CoC
6. Chafik Besseghier gets TEB

What I think:
7. Nathan Chen gets SA
8.. Sota Yamamoto gets NHK
9. Nicholas Nadeau gets SC
10. Eladj Balde gets CoR
11. Kovtun gets TEB
12. Misha Ge gets CoC
13. Ivan Righini gets CoR

PAIRS
( I assume Sui/Han will compete)

For sure:
1. Sui/Han get CoC
2. James/Cipres get TEB
3. Duhamel/Radford get SC

What I think:
4. Kayne/O'Shea gest SA
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov gets CoR
6. Wang/Wang gets CoC
7. Ilushechkina/Moscovitch gets CoR
8. Duskova/Bidar gets TEB
9. Castelli Tran gets SA
10. Volosozhar/Trankov gets TEB & NHK
11. Yu/Jin gets SA
12. Moore-Towers/Marinaro gets SC
13. Savchenko/Massot gets SA

Russia has too many good pairs to predict how they will be sloted.
Question: is Dmitri Aliev moving to seniors?

 

[Mathman]

re weapo

where do you place them for their #2 ????

and what about vm ?

CoR: Weaver and Poje / Chock and Bates

An interesting question about Virtue and Moir. By ISU ranking points I don't think they qualify for anything except a host pick for Skate Canada. But isn't there a "returning Olympic medalists" exemption?