Grand Prix final entries so far

[Mrs. P]

Men
Already in
Patrick Chan - 28 (gold + silver; 505.78 (total score))
Takahiko Kozuka -28 (gold + silver; 481.43)
Tatsuki Machida - 26 (gold + bronze; 466.87)

In the running
Javier Fernandez - 15 (gold, 253.94); Yuzuru Hanyu 13 (silver, 243.74); Daisuke Takahashi 13 (silver; 231.75); Florent Amodio 9 (4th; 218.72);
Long shots
Sergei Voronov 11 (bronze; 217.61) and Jeremy Abbott 7 (5th; 211.35)
Mrs. P Thoughts:
Javier Fernandez should be able to nab one of those spots quite easily. The reason Amodio is in the running is because of the weak field at TEB. He can play spoiler by winning (15+9 = 24). If that happens, Daisuke + Hanyu will need to be in the top two spots to beat Amodio for those last two spots. If Amodio does not win (Jeremy wins, for instance), then all three will be safe with podium finishes.

Ladies
Already in
Kiira Korpi 26 (gold + bronze; 347.05)

In the running
Ashley Wagner 15 (gold; 188.37); Mao Asada 15 (gold; 176.45); Julia Lipnitskaia 13 (silver; 177.92); Akiko Suzuki 13 (silver; 175.16); Christina Gao 13 (silver; 174.25); Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, 9 (4th, 168.00)
Long shots
Agnes Zawaski 11 (bronze 166.61); Mirai Nagasu 9 (4th; 163.46)
Mrs. P comments
Ashley Wagner and Mao Asada should be able to take two of those spots easily with podium finishes. That leaves three spots for five legitimate contenders. TEB will tell the tale. Elizaveta will need to win or get silver for a shot. ETA; Mirai Nagasu is now in the mix due to her getting NHK Trophy, but she's also a long shot as it's unlikely she will beat Mao and Akiko at NHK. However ice is slippery and if she wins, things could get more interesting.

Pairs
Already in
Volosozhar/Trankov 30 (2 gold; 402.60)
Pang/Tong 28 (gold + silver, 373.98)

In the running
Savachenko/Szolkowy 15 (gold; 201.36); Duhamel/Radford 13 (silver; 190.49); Kavaguti/Smirnov 13 (silver; 190.49); Bazarova/Larionov 13 (silver; 191.08)
Long shot
Denney/Coughlin 22 (2 bronze; 312.49); Stolbova/Klimov 11 (bronze, 172.55); Berton/Hotarek 11 (bronze; 183.53); Moore-Towers/Moscovitch 9 (4th; 284.36)
Mrs P.'s thoughts
Savachenko/Szolkowy will likely win TEB, but any medal will get them in. M-T/M can win NHK if they are at their best as it's a relatively weak field and I don't see Bazarova/Larinov getting the same scores they got at COR if they have the same error ridden programs. TEB will again tell the tale as S/S, D/R, K/S and S/K and B/H are all there. I anticipate the podium to be some combination of S/S, K/S and D/R, putting the other two out of the running. NHK will likely be MT/M + B/L in top two. If it's B/L wins, then MT-M is out. If M-T/M wins, then whoever is the bronze medalist at TEB will be out, unless S/S loses, then M-T/M would be out yet again. Denny/Coughlin will unlikely get in unless a bunch of crazy things happen.

DANCE
Already in
Virtue/Moir 30 (2 gold; 343.40)
Bobrova/Soloview 26 (2 silver; 319.41)
In the running
Davis/White 15 (gold; 176.28); Pechalat/Bourzat 15 (gold; 169.73); Cappellini/Lanotte 13 (silver; 160.06); Ilinykh/Katsalapov 13 (silver; 158.46)
Long shots
Weaver/Poje 22 (2 bronze; 316.29) Riazanova/Tkachenko 11 (bronze; 143.39); Shibutani/Shibutani 9 (4th, 140.91)

Mrs. P's thoughts
Honestly, with the Shibs' poor showing at NHK, I expect the last four entries to be pretty straight forward -- D/W, P/B, C/L, I/K. I predict the podium at TEB to be P/B, C/L, R/T. I expect few surprises --- though there are some. Even if the Shibs beats I/K at NHK, they would need some maneuvering at TEB to even have a slight chance...

 

[ForeverFish]

In ladies':

Wagner and Asada are more or less guarantees. Lipnitskaia and Tuktamysheva will grab two more spots if they medal at TEB (which, presupposing clean or mostly clean skates, they should have no trouble doing). I predict the final spot to go to Akiko Suzuki. GPF will be a bloodbath for sure.

 

[tulosai]

You omitted B/L in pairs as in the running (which in my opinion they definitely are) or even long shots.

Otherwise I agree with your analysis

 

[Mrs. P]

You omitted B/L in pairs as in the running (which in my opinion they definitely are) or even long shots.

Otherwise I agree with your analysis

Oh, that was an unintended typo! They are definitely in the running! Going to edit my post and add them.

ETA: Included Mirai Nagasu now that she's been assigned NHK Trophy.

 

[hohoho]

I think the Grand Prix Final should include the six winners. If one of the winners win multiple, then the next highest rank skater in GP would go to a maximum of 6. This year there have been 4 events with 4 different winners in ladies. Wagner has a chance to change that in TEB.

So the GP final for ladies would be:

Wagner
Osmond
Asada
Korpi
Winner of TEB (if Wagner wins then next highest rank in GP)
Winner of NHK (if Asada wins then next highest rank in GP)

This would eliminate the problem that Osmond is having now with only having one event.

 

[ForeverFish]

So the GP final for ladies would be:

Wagner
Osmond
Asada
Korpi
Winner of TEB (if Wagner wins then next highest rank in GP)
Winner of NHK (if Asada wins then next highest rank in GP)

This would eliminate the problem that Osmond is having now with only having one event.

I know this is purely hypothetical, but I predict the TEB crown to go to Julia Lipnitskaia and the NHK crown to go to either Asada or Suzuki (both very popular with the home crowd).

 

[AlexRus]

Men
Ladies
Already in
Kiira Korpi 26 (gold + bronze; 347.05)

In the running
Ashley Wagner 15 (gold; 188.37); Mao Asada 15 (gold; 176.45); Julia Lipnitskaia 13 (silver; 177.92); Akiko Suzuki 13 (silver; 175.16); Christina Gao 13 (silver; 174.25); Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, 9 (4th, 168.00)
Long shots
Agnes Zawaski 11 (bronze 166.61); Mirai Nagasu 9 (4th; 163.46)
Mrs. P comments
Ashley Wagner and Mao Asada should be able to take two of those spots easily with podium finishes. That leaves three spots for five legitimate contenders. TEB will tell the tale. Elizaveta will need to win or get silver for a shot. ETA; Mirai Nagasu is now in the mix due to her getting NHK Trophy, but she's also a long shot as it's unlikely she will beat Mao and Akiko at NHK. However ice is slippery and if she wins, things could get more interesting.

I believe that Ashley Wagner, Mao Asada, Akiko Suzuki are "almost qualified". Chance that they will not be qualified if skate at their Events is less than a chance that they WD because injury or illness. Remember that Mao Asada and Akiko Suzuki have Japanese Event, so 1st and 2nd places are practically guaranteed for them.
Julia Lipnitskaia has a good chance to qualify.

So (if not mentioning not very probable situations) there is one spot for Christina Gao, Agnes Zawadzki, less probably Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. Much less probably - Mirai Nagasu, her chance to win Asada or Suzuki (in Japan) is very small.

 

[ForeverFish]

Wagner is in--1st at SA, 1st at TEB
Lipnitskaia is in--2nd at CoC, 3rd at TEB
Tukta is in--4th at SC, 2nd at TEB (higher scores than Gao, who placed the same)
Korpi is in--3rd at CoC, 1st at CoR

I predict Asada and Suzuki to take the last two spots. What an amazing GPF this will be.

 

[Chemistry66]

Wagner is in--1st at SA, 1st at TEB
Lipnitskaia is in--2nd at CoC, 3rd at TEB
Tukta is in--4th at SC, 2nd at TEB (higher scores than Gao, who placed the same)
Korpi is in--3rd at CoC, 1st at CoR

I predict Asada and Suzuki to take the last two spots. What an amazing GPF this will be.

Liza is not 100% in. There's still:

Mao with 15
Akiko with 13
Agnes with 11
Mirai with 9

It is possible for three of those skaters to make it in. For example, if Mao wins, Agnes gets 2nd, and Akiko gets 3rd, it'd be

Wagner 30
Asada 30
Korpi 26
and then in no particular order
Lipnitskaia 24
Zawadzki 24
Suzuki 24

with Liza as first alternate at 22.

 

[ForeverFish]

It is possible for three of those skaters to make it in. For example, if Mao wins, Agnes gets 2nd, and Akiko gets 3rd, it'd be

with Liza as first alternate at 22.

I doubt that Agnes will place ahead of either Mao or Akiko, both in terms of ability and the fact that they'll be skating on home ice with that "advantage."

 

[travelbug]

I'm not sure how reliable Examiner is considered to be - I know some sites base it more on the particular 'author' of the Examiner page - but this shows Christina Goa also with 22 points after tonight, meaning that if there were a three way tie at 24 give the above scenario, there'd also be a two way tie at 22 for an alternate spot with Liza and Goa. It's the article about 2012 GPF series medal standings/count after the first 5 events.

Or, assuming Agnes places out of the top 3, but Mao and Akiko do medal, it could mean a tie for the last spot with Goa and Liza then at 22.

Is it just the rounded points number that matter, or might they then break it down to the actual scores then to break a tie? I've not paid this much attention in the past - I'm admittedly thrilled at how well Christina is doing (and I've always loved Ashley and am thrilled at how she's doing...and sad at Alissa's physical struggles of late) so I'm particularly curious as to what this all does to her possible chances to go to the GPF!

 

[ice coverage]

If skaters/teams have the same number of ranking points, the ISU GP/GPF 2012/13 announcement specifies an elaborate series of criteria to break ties:

Ties
If there is a tie by added points, the following criteria will be taken into consideration for tie-breaking:

a) the best place obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
b) the higher total of the added total scores obtained in the designated events will count for the better place/ranking:

If there is still a tie,
c) participation in two events will be considered better than having participated in only one event;

If there is still a tie,
d) the higher total of the added scores in Free Skating/Free Dance obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
e) the higher total score in Free Skating/Free Dance obtained in one of the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
f) the higher total of the added scores in the Short Program/Short Dance obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
g) the number of participants finishing the two individual events in which the tied skaters/couples have completed, will be added to the total. The higher number of participants will count for the better place/ranking.

If there is still a tie, all skaters tied are qualified for the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final.​

 

[sky_fly20]

I'm not sure how reliable Examiner is considered to be - I know some sites base it more on the particular 'author' of the Examiner page - but this shows Christina Goa also with 22 points after tonight, meaning that if there were a three way tie at 24 give the above scenario, there'd also be a two way tie at 22 for an alternate spot with Liza and Goa. It's the article about 2012 GPF series medal standings/count after the first 5 events.

Or, assuming Agnes places out of the top 3, but Mao and Akiko do medal, it could mean a tie for the last spot with Goa and Liza then at 22.

No, there is a Tiebreak, one of the tiebreak Gao already loses to Liza
because Tuk has a higher score result

 

[micnow]

Liza is not 100% in.

Liza has to wait. I think her chances are about 60%. Only if the 2 Japanese are 1st and 2nd, Liza would be in. We can predict this as a normal result bu t what is "normal". If Agnes is on her best, it is quite likely that she can split the two japanese.

Right now, even Julia is not 100% in. There is a 0,01% possibility that Julia could be edged out in the following case: Mirai wins, Agnes in 2nd (with a score 191+), Akiko in 3rd (with 182+) and Mao in forth. In this case the first four places of NHK are all in and Julia the first alternate. But nobody (including me) believes in this scenario. I hope that Mao and Akiko are in 1st and 2nd which allows Liza to qualify.:yes:

 

[Chemistry66]

Liza has to wait. I think her chances are about 60%. Only if the 2 Japanese are 1st and 2nd, Liza would be in. We can predict this as a normal result bu t what is "normal". If Agnes is on her best, it is quite likely that she can split the two japanese.

Right now, even Julia is not 100% in. There is a 0,01% possibility that Julia could be edged out in the following case: Mirai wins, Agnes in 2nd (with a score 191+), Akiko in 3rd (with 182+) and Mao in forth. In this case the first four places of NHK are all in and Julia the first alternate. But nobody (including me) believes in this scenario. I hope that Mao and Akiko are in 1st and 2nd which allows Liza to qualify.:yes:

Exactly. Chances are that Liza will make it in based on current standings and previous examples of Mao and Akiko's skating. But stranger things have happened. Ice is slippery.

 

[Rachmaninoff]

Ties
If there is a tie by added points, the following criteria will be taken into consideration for tie-breaking:

a) the best place obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
b) the higher total of the added total scores obtained in the designated events will count for the better place/ranking:

If there is still a tie,
c) participation in two events will be considered better than having participated in only one event;

If there is still a tie,
d) the higher total of the added scores in Free Skating/Free Dance obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
e) the higher total score in Free Skating/Free Dance obtained in one of the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
f) the higher total of the added scores in the Short Program/Short Dance obtained in the two designated events will count for the better place/ranking;

If there is still a tie,
g) the number of participants finishing the two individual events in which the tied skaters/couples have completed, will be added to the total. The higher number of participants will count for the better place/ranking.

If there is still a tie, all skaters tied are qualified for the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final.​

Thanks for posting this. Pretty unlikely there would still be a tie after b, up there. I wonder why they don't just use total scores in the first place for GPF qualification, rather than placings. Seems that would be more fair, since some fields always seem to end up substantially stronger than others.

 

[Chemistry66]

Thanks for posting this. Pretty unlikely there would still be a tie after b, up there. I wonder why they don't just use total scores in the first place for GPF qualification, rather than placings. Seems that would be more fair, since some fields always seem to end up substantially stronger than others.

The issue with that would be different judging panels/ice situations/etc. Too many variables that could give some skaters much more advantage over others

 

[Rachmaninoff]

The issue with that would be different judging panels/ice situations/etc. Too many variables that could give some skaters much more advantage over others

Well, yes, there's no way to make it entirely fair, since there's some variation in scoring between events. (Do "ice situations" really happen all that often?) But it does seem that would be more fair than what we've got now, where a weaker skater/team can easily pull off a silver in one event, and a stronger skater/team can end up off the podium at another, just because some events are better-skated than others. I'd like to see the GPF feature the six skaters/teams who had the strongest performances on the circuit, and while scores won't always be a perfectly accurate measure of that, they'd be more accurate than placements.

They started out using placements because when they came up with the whole Grand Prix idea, skating was judged under the 6.0 system and there were no scores to compare. Now that there are, perhaps they should discuss using them.

 

[dorispulaski]

The scores are used as tiebreakers, which is some help.

 

[pitterpatter]

Well, yes, there's no way to make it entirely fair, since there's some variation in scoring between events. (Do "ice situations" really happen all that often?) But it does seem that would be more fair than what we've got now, where a weaker skater/team can easily pull off a silver in one event, and a stronger skater/team can end up off the podium at another, just because some events are better-skated than others. I'd like to see the GPF feature the six skaters/teams who had the strongest performances on the circuit, and while scores won't always be a perfectly accurate measure of that, they'd be more accurate than placements.

They started out using placements because when they came up with the whole Grand Prix idea, skating was judged under the 6.0 system and there were no scores to compare. Now that there are, perhaps they should discuss using them.

One potential problem I see is it would make the GPs themselves less relevant; ie. there is less meaning to placing first, second or third at your event. Right now, winning means you get a good shot at the GPF, but if scores were used instead, you won't actually know how well you've done since everyone in the next GP might end up throwing down the programs of their lives. In the current system, even if you're not usually considered to be a frontrunner, you just need to perform better than your competitors on the day of - which is kind of in the spirit of competition. I can also envision a lot of controversy over scoring, especially if total scores between competitors are only a couple of points off. I find that judges scores can sometimes be out of whack, but often the placements are at least correct.