How long for a lady to break SP with 80? | Page 7 | Golden Skate

How long for a lady to break SP with 80?

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I think you're right. Here's how a strong SP could look, score-wise, based on some of the best performed elements in Sochi:

3Z-3T - 11.7 (10.10 (Yuna's combo BV) + 1.6 (Adelina's combo GOE) for mostly +2 and a few +3)
3F - 6.7 (5.3 (Yuna's BV) + 1.4 (Carolina's solo jump GOE) for mostly +2's)
2A in bonus - 4.7 (Yuna's 2A)
L4 Steps - 5.4 (Adelina's)
3 L4 Spins - 13.26 (Julia's Team SP)

That is a TES score of 41.76. A skater would then need 38.24 in PCS; neither Yuna nor Caro surpassed 37 in Sochi. So with this layout, performing the elements beautifully and having the best PCS won't get a skater to 80. She must have the 3A.

She can backload all 3 jumping passes in the second half to earn an additional 10%. about 2 more points.
PCS in the 36+ would do it.

I think if Adelina does 3Fluz-3Loop, 3Flip, 2A + all level 4 + Sochi judging, she would break 80.
 

vilandra

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 23, 2014
She can backload all 3 jumping passes in the second half to earn an additional 10%. about 2 more points.
PCS in the 36+ would do it.

I think if Adelina does 3Fluz-3Loop, 3Flip, 2A + all level 4 + Sochi judging, she would break 80.

To my mind, if a lady without 3A can break the 80-point SP mark she definitely needs home field inflation. :)
 

satine

v Yuki Ishikawa v
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
It's gonna be really fun to look back at this thread however many competitions from now when 80 is actually broken :biggrin:
 

ks777

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 15, 2003
I am betting on Japanese jr skaters like Aoki, Higuchi and Honda. They are so much better than Mao and Miki at that age. I think they are practing the 4sal and 3A.
 

AC96

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
If Mao were to return, the more realistic scenario for her would be to do a 3Lo+3Lo and a 3F, not the 3F+3Lo and 3S you're all suggesting. The salchow is one of her least favorite jumps, there's no way she would attempt it in the short.
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
If Mao were to return, the more realistic scenario for her would be to do a 3Lo+3Lo and a 3F, not the 3F+3Lo and 3S you're all suggesting. The salchow is one of her least favorite jumps, there's no way she would attempt it in the short.
I think her salchow has gotten better than it was a few years ago. I can see her attempting and landing it in the short. That being said, 3Lo-3Lo and 3F is actually a higher base value, so if she really wants to break 80 that's perhaps the smarter layout.
 

randomfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2014
Well, at Worlds this year Mao got 42.81 for TES while Carolina got 37 for PCS (forgot the exact number). Mao is superior in TES while Carolina is superior in PCS. Yuna is a balance of both. So we need a skater like Yuna with a difficult program to see someone break the 80 point mark. Seeing the inflated PCS scores these days, I think either Elena or a clean Yulia can break it, perhaps with inflated scores.

And I also see people saying that Yuna was gifted in Vancouver. Well actually, those were the days when every single SP required a 2A so Mao had no choice but to do it. Also, I don't recall a competition where Mao never got even one -GOE for her 3A whether it was clean or not.
 

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
Well, at Worlds this year Mao got 42.81 for TES while Carolina got 37 for PCS (forgot the exact number). Mao is superior in TES while Carolina is superior in PCS. Yuna is a balance of both. So we need a skater like Yuna with a difficult program to see someone break the 80 point mark. Seeing the inflated PCS scores these days, I think either Elena or a clean Yulia can break it, perhaps with inflated scores.
Elena and Julia might need a little bit extra to break the 80 mark. Caroline and Yuna on their best days in 2014 with difficult 3-3s could barely break 75 (hard to gauge Yuna with only 1 international competition though), so I expect a 3A is absolutely necessary unless a skater does all Level 4 elements and jumps 3Lutz-3Loop, 3F, and 2A all in the second half. With Yuna's PCS (Carolina's Worlds PCS would mean only a 3Lz-3T is necessary, I think).

And I also see people saying that Yuna was gifted in Vancouver. Well actually, those were the days when every single SP required a 2A so Mao had no choice but to do it. Also, I don't recall a competition where Mao never got even one -GOE for her 3A whether it was clean or not.
Just for fun, here's a competition where there were zero -GOEs for Asada's 3A. And again at GPF 2008 for not one but two 3As. And again, at 4CC 2009, and again on her 3A-2T combination at Worlds 2009, and in her the 2010 Olympics SP and the solo 3A in her FS. Yes, there were some 0 GOEs but that's not the criterion you don't remember Asada ever meeting, so I'll count all those where she simply had no -GOE. In the next quad there was her 2013 4CC SP. I assume her 3As in the GPF SP and her Worlds FS would have all or nearly all positive GOE if they were credited as they should have been, but I digress.

Edit: I might add that both the solo 3Axels she did at WTT 2009 were credited with 0 GOE or higher from all judges.
 
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minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Elena and Julia might need a little bit extra to break the 80 mark. Caroline and Yuna on their best days in 2014 with difficult 3-3s could barely break 75 (hard to gauge Yuna with only 1 international competition though), so I expect a 3A is absolutely necessary unless a skater does all Level 4 elements and jumps 3Lutz-3Loop, 3F, and 2A all in the second half. With Yuna's PCS (Carolina's Worlds PCS would mean only a 3Lz-3T is necessary, I think).


Just for fun, here's a competition where there were zero -GOEs for Asada's 3A. And again at GPF 2008 for not one but two 3As. And again, at 4CC 2009, and again on her 3A-2T combination at Worlds 2009, and in her the 2010 Olympics SP and the solo 3A in her FS. Yes, there were some 0 GOEs but that's not the criterion you don't remember Asada ever meeting, so I'll count all those where she simply had no -GOE. In the next quad there was her 2013 4CC SP. I assume her 3As in the GPF SP and her Worlds FS would have all or nearly all positive GOE if they were credited as they should have been, but I digress.

Edit: I might add that both the solo 3Axels she did at WTT 2009 were credited with 0 GOE or higher from all judges.

Hi CarneAsada. I missed you posting here:cheer2:
 

randomfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2014
Just for fun, here's a competition where there were zero -GOEs for Asada's 3A. And again at GPF 2008 for not one but two 3As. And again, at 4CC 2009, and again on her 3A-2T combination at Worlds 2009, and in her the 2010 Olympics SP and the solo 3A in her FS. Yes, there were some 0 GOEs but that's not the criterion you don't remember Asada ever meeting, so I'll count all those where she simply had no -GOE. In the next quad there was her 2013 4CC SP. I assume her 3As in the GPF SP and her Worlds FS would have all or nearly all positive GOE if they were credited as they should have been, but I digress.

Edit: I might add that both the solo 3Axels she did at WTT 2009 were credited with 0 GOE or higher from all judges.

Oh so there were times when she got no negative GOEs. I didn't know that. Thanks for correcting me.
 

Warwick360

Medalist
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Can someone tell me why men's factor is greater than those of women in the component side of scores, which is 1 in the case of men while 0.80 in the case of ladies?

Perhaps if they were the same then the women could possibly have a slither of a chance to get themselves past 80 with a strong triple-triple?
 

JayW

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 8, 2013
Can someone tell me why men's factor is greater than those of women in the component side of scores, which is 1 in the case of men while 0.80 in the case of ladies?

Perhaps if they were the same then the women could possibly have a slither of a chance to get themselves past 80 with a strong triple-triple?

I am puzzled by those factors as well. It almost looks discriminatory against ladies!
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Can someone tell me why men's factor is greater than those of women in the component side of scores, which is 1 in the case of men while 0.80 in the case of ladies?

Perhaps if they were the same then the women could possibly have a slither of a chance to get themselves past 80 with a strong triple-triple?
Because the TES and PCS are supposed to be balanced (accounting for ~50% of the mark each), and since the men score higher in TES due to their harder elements, their PCS is factored greater to match that.
 

anyanka

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 8, 2011
Due to the law of score inflation occurring during an Olympic season, let's say at the GPF of 2017, 2018 Euros or Pyeongchang.
 

Warwick360

Medalist
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Because the TES and PCS are supposed to be balanced (accounting for ~50% of the mark each), and since the men score higher in TES due to their harder elements, their PCS is factored greater to match that.

But shouldn't the individual technical reflect on that particular individual's pc if it was to be fair? I see some men who have horrendous skate (particularly on the jumps and the level that they attempt) and I'm left thinking the factor does not end up being fair on that account, especially when their program end up being so much more mediocre than some of the top ladies.
 

Meoima

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
But shouldn't the individual technical reflect on that particular individual's pc if it was to be fair? I see some men who have horrendous skate (particularly on the jumps and the level that they attempt) and I'm left thinking the factor does not end up being fair on that account, especially when their program end up being so much more mediocre than some of the top ladies.
Men's scores couldn't be compared to ladies'. They were judged differently, with different criteria, different content as well. For example the ladies are often better at spins, while the men are mostly expected to do 3A and quads. Men's LP is 4,5 minutes while ladies' is 4 minutes.
 
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Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
But shouldn't the individual technical reflect on that particular individual's pc if it was to be fair? I see some men who have horrendous skate (particularly on the jumps and the level that they attempt) and I'm left thinking the factor does not end up being fair on that account, especially when their program end up being so much more mediocre than some of the top ladies.
But the men aren't competing against the ladies. They're competing against each other. The PCS are balanced with the TES so that competitors in the same discipline can compete fairly against each other (so that in the men's field, we won't have too big a bias toward the TES skaters, and in the ladies' field, we don't have too big a bias toward the PCS skaters).
 

Warwick360

Medalist
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Men's scores couldn't be compared to ladies'.

Why not? It's not like I'm comparing Yuna with Patrick Chan or Yuzuru with Mao. Of course the technical differences are huge but I'm just curious to know how women could be factored less in the program aspect of the scores. I'm definitely not saying that I expect women to be scoring high as men in things such as transition although some women do seem to do a mighty hell of a job with it. If we still had someone of Midori Ito calibre (and granted I wouldn't expect high pc scores from judges because let's face it, judges were never giving in her artistic scores), I do think it would be tad unfair if the factors were lower in that account
 
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