Ladies prospects after two events

[MissIzzy]

Two events, 23 ladies, and a few more surprises, mostly in the failure of the American ladies, with two of the young hopeful trio from last year now knocked out. An analysis of the situation for the ladies:

Skate America top four:

1. Yu-Na Kim-Will probably win Cup of China, then gear herself up to deal with Asada on home ice.

2. Yukari Nakano-Would need to win NHK to mathematically seal the deal, and isn't likely to beat Asada there, but should be fine with silver, for which her strongest competition is Mirai Nagasu, Laura Lepisto or possibly Ashley Wagner, about whom we'll know more after next week. More likely than not to win that silver, and she'd probably need a lot of downgraded jumps to fall off the podium. She skated strategically at Skate America, so it may be a matter of playing her cards right and, if she gets stuck with bronze, hoping for the chips to fall right, which, with both Asada and Kim taking both their golds, they probably will.

3. Miki Ando-Would need to win Cup of China to seal it, probably fine with silver. Probably won't beat Kim, but so long as she keeps it together she'll have silver. If she skates badly, however, she's threatened by Sarah Meier, Lepisto, and possibly Wagner, and she can't afford to lose to any of them. This might be a situation in which she shouldn't risk the quad.

4. Rachel Flatt-Would need to win Cup of Russia to have a proper chance, which she's got an outside shot of doing. She'd need to beat Carolina Kostner, Fumie Suguri, Sarah Meier, and possibly Julia Sebestyen to do it, though, or even Kimmie Meissner, so don't hold your breath. She might have a little better chance of getting silver and hoping things fall a very certain way.

Skate Canada top four:

1. Joannie Rochette-Need only medal at Trophee Eric Bombard, and the way things have been going lately, the only person with even a good chance at beating her there is Asada! There's a remaining chance, maybe, that Caroline or Kiira Korpi will beat her too, but then she's still at least fourth, where again, because two ladies will probably share four golds, her chances are good. Even if she has a bad skate, she's only in danger from possibly Elene Gedevanishvili or remotely possibly Emily Hughes, and maybe not even from them. In short, barring the worst competition of her career, and then an unusually good competition from certain other ladies, she's in.

2. Fumie Suguri-Would need to win Cup of Russia to seal the deal, which she might very well do. So long as she shows the form she did at Skate Canada, she may or may not lose to Kostner, and vie with Sarah Meier for silver, or possibly with Rachel Flatt for the podium. So long as she beats one of them her chances are good, and if she beats both of them she's very probably in.

3. Alissa Czisny-Would need a second event, and then would need to win at least silver. But she did very well as a last-minute replacement the year she did make the Finale, so if she gets that second event, who knows?

4. Carolina Koster-Like Flatt, she'd need to win Cup of Russia, but her chances of that are much stronger; if she skates clean she probably will, but the question is can she do that with her recent injury problems.

Knocked out of the race, but could possibly mix up other events:

Caroline Zhang-fifth at Skate Canada, could mix up the podium in Paris
Mirai Nagasu-fifth at Skate America, could mix up the podium in Japan
Kiira Korpi-withdrew from Skate Canada, could mix up the podium in Paris
Julia Sebestyen-withdrew from Cup of China, could possibly mix up the podium in Russia
Kimmie Meissner-probably won't mix up things in Russia, but you never know

The odd cases of Trophee Eric Bombard:

Elene Gedevanishvili-Her only event, not been doing well lately but she just might pull a Czisny and win bronze, displacing someone else
Emily Hughes-also her only event, less chance of having much effect at it but again, you never know

Contenders yet to compete:

Certain contenders:
Mao Asada

Probably contenders:
Sarah Meier

Possible contenders:
Laura Lepisto
Ashley Wagner

 

[bekalc]

Rachel Flatt-Would need to win Cup of Russia to have a proper chance, which she's got an outside shot of doing. She'd need to beat Carolina Kostner, Fumie Suguri, Sarah Meier, and possibly Julia Sebestyen to do it, though, or even Kimmie Meissner, so don't hold your breath. She might have a little better chance of getting silver and hoping things fall a very certain way.

I'm not holding my breath I think it's quite possible. Rachael is capable of out jumping all those girls. Kostner is Kostner. Suguri/Meier SEbestyen are hardly consistent jumpers. If Rachael reverts to her old form and shakes of her nerves she could beat them.

 

[Hiara80]

Two events, 23 ladies, and a few more surprises, mostly in the failure of the American ladies, with two of the young hopeful trio from last year now knocked out. An analysis of the situation for the ladies:

Skate America top four:

1. Yu-Na Kim-Will probably win Cup of China, then gear herself up to deal with Asada on home ice.

2. Yukari Nakano-Would need to win NHK to mathematically seal the deal, and isn't likely to beat Asada there, but should be fine with silver, for which her strongest competition is Mirai Nagasu, Laura Lepisto or possibly Ashley Wagner, about whom we'll know more after next week. More likely than not to win that silver, and she'd probably need a lot of downgraded jumps to fall off the podium. She skated strategically at Skate America, so it may be a matter of playing her cards right and, if she gets stuck with bronze, hoping for the chips to fall right, which, with both Asada and Kim taking both their golds, they probably will.

3. Miki Ando-Would need to win Cup of China to seal it, probably fine with silver. Probably won't beat Kim, but so long as she keeps it together she'll have silver. If she skates badly, however, she's threatened by Sarah Meier, Lepisto, and possibly Wagner, and she can't afford to lose to any of them. This might be a situation in which she shouldn't risk the quad.

4. Rachel Flatt-Would need to win Cup of Russia to have a proper chance, which she's got an outside shot of doing. She'd need to beat Carolina Kostner, Fumie Suguri, Sarah Meier, and possibly Julia Sebestyen to do it, though, or even Kimmie Meissner, so don't hold your breath. She might have a little better chance of getting silver and hoping things fall a very certain way.

Skate Canada top four:

1. Joannie Rochette-Need only medal at Trophee Eric Bombard, and the way things have been going lately, the only person with even a good chance at beating her there is Asada! There's a remaining chance, maybe, that Caroline or Kiira Korpi will beat her too, but then she's still at least fourth, where again, because two ladies will probably share four golds, her chances are good. Even if she has a bad skate, she's only in danger from possibly Elene Gedevanishvili or remotely possibly Emily Hughes, and maybe not even from them. In short, barring the worst competition of her career, and then an unusually good competition from certain other ladies, she's in.

2. Fumie Suguri-Would need to win Cup of Russia to seal the deal, which she might very well do. So long as she shows the form she did at Skate Canada, she may or may not lose to Kostner, and vie with Sarah Meier for silver, or possibly with Rachel Flatt for the podium. So long as she beats one of them her chances are good, and if she beats both of them she's very probably in.

3. Alissa Czisny-Would need a second event, and then would need to win at least silver. But she did very well as a last-minute replacement the year she did make the Finale, so if she gets that second event, who knows?

4. Carolina Koster-Like Flatt, she'd need to win Cup of Russia, but her chances of that are much stronger; if she skates clean she probably will, but the question is can she do that with her recent injury problems.

Knocked out of the race, but could possibly mix up other events:

Caroline Zhang-fifth at Skate Canada, could mix up the podium in Paris
Mirai Nagasu-fifth at Skate America, could mix up the podium in Japan
Kiira Korpi-withdrew from Skate Canada, could mix up the podium in Paris
Julia Sebestyen-withdrew from Cup of China, could possibly mix up the podium in Russia
Kimmie Meissner-probably won't mix up things in Russia, but you never know

The odd cases of Trophee Eric Bombard:

Elene Gedevanishvili-Her only event, not been doing well lately but she just might pull a Czisny and win bronze, displacing someone else
Emily Hughes-also her only event, less chance of having much effect at it but again, you never know

Contenders yet to compete:

Certain contenders:
Mao Asada

Probably contenders:
Sarah Meier

Possible contenders:
Laura Lepisto
Ashley Wagner

Caro Kostner injuried? i did't know...what happened?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

You have to be new to the Sport, not to realize that 2 Ladies have filled their places in the Finals whether or not they skated yet. So it is 4 skaters from among the remaining Ladies that have to earn at least bronze medals. It would seem Miki Ando has set the magic number at 24 which makes her the odds on favorite to be in the Finals. But, more than likely we will be looking for 2nd comps of:

Flatt, Nakano, Rochette, Suguri, Lepisto, Nagasu(?), Wagner(?), Zhang(?), Kostner(?)

So the field is interesting for filling 3 places (4th, 5th, and 6th).

Barring any injuries, I believe the winner of the Finals is already set as well as the silver medal but the bronze will be available.

 

[Bennett]

Flatt, Nakano, Rochette, Suguri, Lepisto, Nagasu(?), Wagner(?), Zhang(?), Kostner(?)

So the field is interesting for filling 3 places (4th, 5th, and 6th).
.

My prediction:

4.Rochette, 5.Nakano, and 6.Suguri.



Gold at the previous event: Rochette: She has the biggest chance.

Silver at the previous event: Nakano and Suguri: Nakano could perhaps at least medal at NHK. I wonder if Nakano will try 3A or fully rotate her new 3-3 if she tries. Although Suguri is getting her jumps back, she still flutzed and 2 footed. She was still relatively weak in her steps, spins, and transitions. But I think it likely that she medals at the next event.

Bronze at the previous event: Lepisto and Alissa: I doubt if Lepisto lands her lutz. Alissa seems among the least consistent and I have no idea how she would do next time at CoR. I would not be surprised if both are off the podium at the next event.

Fourth at the previous event: Flatt/Carolina/Wagner: If Caro does an okay performance, she should able to win CoR. But I wonder if it would be enough for her to make the final. I don't think Flatt or Wagner would win the next event.

I feel that it may end up four Japanese skaters out of six, which would seem to me rather boring.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Here is my outline after 3 events (from another thread)

For CoR, Flatt needs a win to bring up her GP score to 24 for possible Finals.

Kostner needs a win to bring up her GP score to 24 for possible Finals

Suguri needs to podium to bring her score up to 28, 26 or 24

Czisny needs to podium to bring her score up to 26, 24 or 22

Meissner and Meier seem to be too far behind.

Rochette (TEB) needs only to place for a 30, 28, 26.

Nakano (Japan) needs only to place for 28, 26

Oh yes I left out Ando who has 24 points and finished.
________________________________________

With Kim already with 30 and Mao most likely to finish with 30 and with NHK coming up: Lepisto, and Wagner could also make the Finals, how can one pick the 6 lucky ones for the Finals? unless, one picks personal favorites. Better to wait for results of tiebreakers.

.

 

[turtle]

Barring any injuries, I believe the winner of the Finals is already set as well as the silver medal but the bronze will be available.

That seems to me a premature conclusion. You haven't seen the other lady skate yet.

 

[shallwedansu]

That seems to me a premature conclusion. You haven't seen the other lady skate yet.

Yes, a very premature conclusion. Not only Mao, but don't count out Miki, Yukari, and Joannie.

Unless he meant the judges are going to hand them gold and silver, regardless of how they skate. Which, IMO, is an unfair assumption to make upon Yu-Na and Mao. A bit rude too, since it indicates these ladies aren't earning their placements.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It is premature of me to have placed Mao in first place before she skates. I appoloize tor that, but leaving it as a prediction.

Thanks for the heads up on Nakano. I'll change that in my post. Joannie was covered in my post.

btw Why would a mistake be rude? There was nothing deliberate there. If one catches a mistake and lets a writer know about it, it can be corrected, and with thanks.

 

[bekalc]

It is premature of me to have placed Mao in first place before she skates. I appoloize tor that, but leaving it as a prediction.

Thanks for the heads up on Nakano. I'll change that in my post. Joannie was covered in my post.

btw Why would a mistake be rude? There was nothing deliberate there. If one catches a mistake and lets a writer know about it, it can be corrected, and with thanks.

I'd say it's premature, we have no clue what kind of shape Mao is in.. The key with Mao is the triple axel's consistency and the rotation of her 3/3's consistency. Two things that last year were not consistent. Honestly I'm rooting for Mao to win the GPF this year....It's been awhile since she won it, and well I'd much rather have Yu-na win Worlds.....

 

[GiuliaPlum]

how works the tie-breack?

 

[Spun Silver]

It is premature of me to have placed Mao in first place before she skates. I appoloize tor that, but leaving it as a prediction.

Thanks for the heads up on Nakano. I'll change that in my post. Joannie was covered in my post.

btw Why would a mistake be rude? There was nothing deliberate there. If one catches a mistake and lets a writer know about it, it can be corrected, and with thanks.

my prediction and hope is that Mao will win the GPF based on past performance and recent clips. Yes, it's premature - sorry! I agree that she and Yu Na have gold and silver locked unless they both have meltdowns, and between the two, I greatly prefer Mao.

 

[shallwedansu]

Joesitz, I didn't call you rude. I said it would be rude if the following assumption was made: the judges are going to automatically give Mao and Yu-Na gold and silver regardless of how they skate.

I think it's a little rude to these ladies when people make these assumptions, because it says they aren't working hard for their scores. It's saying it's so easy for them. All they have to do is show up and they'll win.

 

[bekalc]

my prediction and hope is that Mao will win the GPF based on past performance and recent clips. Yes, it's premature - sorry! I agree that she and Yu Na have gold and silver locked unless they both have meltdowns, and between the two, I greatly prefer Mao.

I thought until he said otherwise Joe was talking about Yu-na getting gold. Remember we all had to listen to Scott Hamilton and company along with Hersh declare Yu-na the favorite, before we even got to see Mao... I have to see how Mao looks before I can make any kind of prediction whatsover. But I'm actually really excited about seeing her and her new programs...

My gut tells me that Mao's going to blow everyone away...

 

[Spun Silver]

Anything can happen - that's what makes it so exciting!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joesitz, I didn't call you rude. I said it would be rude if the following assumption was made: the judges are going to automatically give Mao and Yu-Na gold and silver regardless of how they skate.

I think it's a little rude to these ladies when people make these assumptions, because it says they aren't working hard for their scores. It's saying it's so easy for them. All they have to do is show up and they'll win.

I believe you are overreacting to an admitted faux pas of mine. How you consider unintentional mistakes is your business and others if not most people understand that mistakes happen and can not be considered rude. However, maybe in different cultures, mistakes are considere rude.

 

[R.D.]

Nothing you said was rude. There are a bunch of over-sensitive Yu Na fans on this board who see bias and attacks everywhere. Honestly, I don't know how they manage to sleep at night when their beloved is constantly under fire. (*sarcasm*)

Don't forget the Asada fans as well. It's an all out war between Kim fans and Asada fans, it seems. Thank goodness none of the Americans are inspiring that kind of passion in fans over here. (maybe except select Zhang fans)

 

[shallwedansu]

I believe you are overreacting to an admitted faux pas of mine. How you consider unintentional mistakes is your business and others if not most people understand that mistakes happen and can not be considered rude. However, maybe in different cultures, mistakes are considere rude.

Or maybe you're just overreacting to what you perceive as me overreacting...?

I don't know much clearer I can say this, but I didn't call you rude, nor did I mean to say you were rude. I just said if (and I italicized 'if' before to emphasize it) the assumption was made that judges were handing out medals to them because of their names, then it's a little rude to those ladies. They didn't get to the top by slouching, you know? They worked hard to get there and nothing was easily handed to them.

I see now, that's not what you meant, and so you were not being rude. And I thought I made myself clear on that by saying, "Joesitz, I didn't call you rude."

And let's get another fact out the way since the "different cultures" was brought up, and this isn't directed to Joesitz, but to everyone on this forum: Just because I am a fan of Mao and Yu-Na, it does not automatically make me Japanese nor Korean. I'm American and don't let my ID fool you. Shall We Dansu? just happens to be one of my favorite movies of all time. I recommend it. It's one of those feel good, pleasant movies. :thumbsup:


Back to the topic:

I feel that it may end up four Japanese skaters out of six, which would seem to me rather boring.

I have the same feeling as well, but I don't mind at all if 2/3 of the ladies are Japanese skaters, as long as they earned their places fairly.

This is a general question to everyone on this forum: Would it be less boring if it were 4 American skaters?

I guess this brings up the touchy subject of nationalism and such, but I still don't understand why some people can't get behind other skaters just because they don't represent the U.S. And this is coming from someone born and raised in the USA. Of course I'm going to root for my U.S. ladies, but I have a handful of favorites who aren't from the U.S. and if they happen to do well over our team, it's not going to make me less enthusiastic over the competition.

 

[turtle]

This is a general question to everyone on this forum: Would it be less boring if it were 4 American skaters?

I guess this brings up the touchy subject of nationalism and such, but I still don't understand why some people can't get behind other skaters just because they don't represent the U.S. And this is coming from someone born and raised in the USA. Of course I'm going to root for my U.S. ladies, but I have a handful of favorites who aren't from the U.S. and if they happen to do well over our team, it's not going to make me less enthusiastic over the competition.

I want American ladies to do well for a rather different reason. If they do well, perhaps figure skating will gain some popularity back here, subsequently we will see more TV coverage of the sports, and I will feel very obliged to sit in front of TV watching these competitions instead of on my tiny computer monitor:yes:.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Whoever did best should be at the GPF.

It's SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ridiculous though that 4 skaters from the same country are allowed to compete at the GPF and then only 3 are allowed to go to Worlds (if the skaters from the year before did well enough to qualify that many spots!).

Skaters should qualify based on actual ability, not where they live. If you get a certain score at any Grand Prix event or 4 Continents/Europeans, you should be allowed to compete at Worlds. I see 6 ladies that Japan could field and 7 that America could field. Instead this year we'll get 3 Japanese and 2 American.