Opinion: The brevity of skating careers

[macy]

for whatever it's worth, i remember Ann Patrice McDonough. she made a visit to my rink once back in the day, if i remember correctly she was a friend of one of my coaches who was a fellow competitor of hers.

 

[Mathman]

Men are apparently retiring left and right before their time...(???) I am sure it's Chen. Obviously, it's Chen..

Nathan Chen actually had a fairly long career, comprising 6 years of international competition in seniors at the highest level. For comparison the average length of a career in the (U.S.) National Football League is 3.5 years. In the National Basketball Association its 4.5 years.

Plus, Nathan was widely celebrated and publicized (in the U.S.) throughout his junior and even novice years. I continue to believe that we should take into account the entire arc of a skater's career in this thread. Post competition, he appears in shows and exhibitions but I wouldn't really say that he had a "professional career" in the sense of Kristi Yamaguchi or Scott Hamilton. Different times.

Now he is finishing up at Yale in statistics and data science, with an eye toward going on to medical school. He found time to write a children's book, Wei Skates On ("Wei" is Nathan's middle name). Ok, maybe its not the blockbuster Dream Big, Little Pig, but still...

What a llife he has had already, and he is just getting started! And besides all that, he also holds the distinction of being the second most accomplished achiever in his family. (His sister Janet is a biotech entrepreneur in the field of DNA analysis. She stared her own multimillion dollar private corporation and lab at age 28 and is the author or co-author of some 55 scholarly papers in tthe field. I hope she has a long career. )

 

[el henry]

I am so very impressed by what Nathan has accomplished off the ice. I realize that he is unique, but to study at that level and to compete blows my mind.

For those with access to Amazon Prime, for an in depth look at the cost emotionally and physically of a long career in sports, as well as the rewards, may I recommend the documentary "Kelce" (about Jason, not Travis, although Trav makes an appearance)? Yes, it is about an NFL player, not a skater. But it is an honest look at the rewards and the costs of a long career in sports, not from fans' speculation, but from the actual source. And anyone who has followed Jason K's career knows he does not sugar coat or repeat PR niceties. It made me rethink some of my approaches and thoughts about the cost/benefit of any athletes' life, including skaters.

Yes, Jason has 80 million reasons to play football, which sadly does not apply to 99% of figure skaters. But much of what he says does, and I found it thought provoking.

 

[4everchan]

Nathan went to two olympics. I wouldn't think of him as someone who had a short career. Going for 3 is rather exceptional.

 

[Mathman]

^ Gillis Gratstrom had a long career. He went to 4 Olympics, winning 3 golds and a silver. (It would have been 4 golds, but at the 1932 Olympics Graftstrom collided with a photographer who was on the ice snapping pictures during his performance. Graftstrom fell, resulting in the judges placing upstart Karl Schafer in first over the favored veteren -- and thus making this story relevant to this thread ) As a coach Graftstrom's most famous student was Sonja Henie. Sadly he died at age 44, six years after he retired from competition.

Graftstrom was known for his sensitive musical interpretations. His wife was the great-granddaughter of composer Felix Mendelssohn.

 

[Amei]

Plus, Nathan was widely celebrated and publicized (in the U.S.) throughout his junior and even novice years. I continue to believe that we should take into account the entire arc of a skater's career in this thread. Post competition, he appears in shows and exhibitions but I wouldn't really say that he had a "professional career" in the sense of Kristi Yamaguchi or Scott Hamilton. Different times.

But then people would be unable to criticize the Russian ladies for their "short" careers since they actually don't have short careers, as most of them do show skating for years once they are no longer competitive for international spots (or eligible for international competitions).

 

[Mathman]

But then people would be unable to criticize the Russian ladies for their "short" careers since they actually don't have short careers, as most of them do show skating for years once they are no longer competitive for international spots (or eligible for international competitions).

Agreed. I would never criticise a skater for his/her career choices, and more power to them if they find ways to continue in the sport after their competitive days are done.

 

[4everchan]

^ Gillis Gratstrom had a long career. He went to 4 Olympics, winning 3 golds and a silver. (It would have been 4 golds, but at the 1932 Olympics Graftstrom collided with a photographer who was on the ice snapping pictures during his performance. Graftstrom fell, resulting in the judges placing upstart Karl Schafer in first over the favored veteren -- and thus making this story relevant to this thread ) As a coach Graftstrom's most famous student was Sonja Henie. Sadly he died at age 44, six years after he retired from competition.

Graftstrom was known for his sensitive musical interpretations. His wife was the great-granddaughter of composer Felix Mendelssohn.

I doubt many skaters under the IJS would manage 4 olympics... but that's awesome. Mendelssohn for the win !

 

[icewhite]

Looked at some data.
Some remarks:
I know these are not significant numbers, so I haven't even calculated something like an average. Take it more as anecdotal. The lists I took them from are also not really comparable, I took the ones easiest to get and click. This also not saying these are the asbolute best in their sport, they are some top competitors which are not hand-chosen by me to prove my point, but, like I said, the ones to work with fastest.

Some numbers may be wrong because of hasty work or my miserable math skills (birth dates, months etc...) I don't think that should change the overall picture.

I took these sports because they came to my mind. I wanted to take some Olympic sports (vs. pro sports where more people can actually make money), individual sports, sports where athleticism plays a big role, sports where heavy injuries occur rather often and can ruin whole seasons easily (decathlon), where weight and weight control play a big role (eg 10000m, high jump, cycling, biathlon...), where jumping plays a huge role, where flexibility plays a huge role (climbing, gymnastics), where coordination plays a huge role (eg basketball).

For some reason I then chose decathlon (heptathlon) to compare the length of the whole senior careers. I didn't want to spend weeks on this, so I looked them up very fast and rounded and estimated a bit. I think decathlon is a) an Olympic sport where most competitors do not make much money. Sponsorships when they are lucky, but no pro contracts b) like fs requires a complex bunch of skills, both athletic and coordinative, and a body in top form c) many competitors are often injured and miss major competitions especially since there are only a few highlights / full competitions in the season.

some current top competitors in
sprint (track) 100m (results '23, as for all athletics)
women: Richardson (23), Jackson (29), Fraser-Pryce (36), Lou (35), Alfred (22)
men: Lyles (26), Tebogo (20), Hughes (28), Seville (22), Coleman (27)
ski alpin (worldcup standings)
men Feller (31), Matt (30), Schwarz (28), Ryding (36), Yule (30)
women Shiffrin (28), Vlhová (28), Hector (31), Dürr (32), Popociv (26)
10,000m
men: Cheptegei (27), Ebenyo (28), Barega (23), Aregawi (22), Kibet (24)
women: Tsegay (26), Gidey (25), Taye (23), Kimais (25), Monson (25)
climbing (lead) (world ranking)
men Sorato (17), Megos (30), Schubert (32), Roberts (18), Homma (24)
women Mori (20), Garnbret (24), Pilz (27), Seo (20), Krampl (23)
biathlon (world cup)
women: Simon (27), Wierer (33), Vittozzi (28), Herrmann (34), Öberg (24)
Boe (30), Laegreid (26), Christiansen (31), Doll (33), Ponsiluoma (28)
high jump
women: Mahuchikh (22), Patterson (27), Olyslagers (27), Lake (26), Herashchenko (28)
men: Tamberi (31), Harrison (24), Barshim (32), Zayas (26), Potye (28)
decathlon: Lepage (27), Warner (34), Victor (30), Tilga (25), Neugebauer (23)
heptathlon: Johnson-Thompson (30), Hall (22), Vetter (30), Krizsán (30), Oosterwegel (25)
long jump
men: Tentóglou (25), Pinnock (23), Gayle (27), McLeod (25), Wang (27)
women: Vuleta (33), Davis (24), Rotaru-Kottmann (30), Brume (27), Iapichino (21)
pole jump:
men: Duplantis (24), Obiena (28), Nilsen (25), Marschall (26), Collet (24)
women: Kennedy (26), Moon (32), Murto (25), Sutej (35), Moser (26)
gmynastics (WC, iaa)
Biles (26), Jones (21), Gadirova (19), Andrade (24), Black (28)
Chiba (27), Kaya (27), Hashimoto (22), Jarman (21), Hall (28), Richard (19)
cycling (ranking)
Pogacar (25), Evenepoel (23), Vingegaard (26), Roglic (34), Philipsen (25)
Vollering (27), Kopecky (28), Wiebes (24), Reusser (32), van Vleuten (41)
tennis (world rankings)
men: Djokovic (36), Alcaraz (20), Medvedev (27), Sinner (22), Rublev (26)
women: Swiatek (22), Sabalenka (25), Gauff (19), Rybakina (24), Pegula (29)
basketball (random list from the internet since I don't know anything about basketball)
Jokic (28), Antetokounmpo (28), Embiid (29), Doncic (24), Curry (35)
Wilson (27), Stewart (29), Jones (29), Delle Donne (34), Chelsea Gray (31)

figure skating (world ranking +russ. winners of last season's major comps)
men: Malinin (18), Fa (22), Uno (25), Kagiyama (20), Miura (18) (RUS: Semenenko (20), Gumennik (21))
women: Shimada (15), Sakamoto (23), Hendrickx (24), Levito (16), Shin (15) (RUS: Akateva (16), Petrosyan (16))

How long did the senior careers of the Olympic winners last?
decathlon
O'Brien ~1990-2002
Nool ~1990-2002
Sebrle ~1997-2013
Clay ~ 2000-2012
Eaton ~ 2006-2017
Warner ~ 2010-today
heptathlon
Shouaa ~1991-2000/2004
Lewis ~1991-2005
Klüft ~ 2000-2012
Dobrynska ~2004-2013
Ennis ~2004-2016
Thiam ~ 2013-today

figure skating:
Kulik ~1995-1998
Yagudin ~1997-2003
Plushchenko ~1998-2014
Lysacek ~2004-2014
Hanyu ~2010-2022
Chen ~2016-2022

Lipinski ~1997-1998
Hughes ~ 2000-2003
Arakawa ~ 1997-2006
Kim 2006-2014
Sotnikowa ~ 2013-2015
Zagitova 2017-1019
Shcherbakova 2018-2022

Okay, I hope this will become a PhD...

This is the first part. It does not show the impact of longevity on popularity of the sport. It shows that senior figure skating careers are indeed rather short on average in comparison and that figure skaters are very young in comparison. The closest are gymnastics and climbing I think - which would indicate that it's especially flexibility that lets the average age and length decrease. However I think even in those sports there are more older top competitors than in fs. I am also not sure about flexibility. It could also be that in the case of gymnastics it's the fact that it's considered more of a women's sport and tradition (and bias of choaches etc.) plays a big role. That it is seen as a "sport for young girls". In climbing a reason could be that, on an Olympic level it's a very young sport. The younger competitors often tend to have a very dynamic style, different from the one that the older ones learned when they were younger. It might be more efficient for sports climbing, while the older ones may come from rock climbing with more static moves???

I will look at popularity another time. This however indicates that the reasons for younger age or shorter careers are not as simple as "they don't earn any money with it and have to invest so much time and hard work so it's not worth it after some time". I'm sure many of these other athletes have to work extremely hard, too. You don't become a decathlon champion without being in the absolute top shape a human can be. Many of these sports are known to require very strict diets and an ascetic lifestyle. I would think it is not one factor but several playing together that lead to comparatively shorter senior careers.

(If people wonder why I did this and did not just take the numbers that can be found in the internet: They often do not look at the numbers and times I was interested in.)

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

I am so very impressed by what Nathan has accomplished off the ice. I realize that he is unique, but to study at that level and to compete blows my mind.

For those with access to Amazon Prime, for an in depth look at the cost emotionally and physically of a long career in sports, as well as the rewards, may I recommend the documentary "Kelce" (about Jason, not Travis, although Trav makes an appearance)? Yes, it is about an NFL player, not a skater. But it is an honest look at the rewards and the costs of a long career in sports, not from fans' speculation, but from the actual source. And anyone who has followed Jason K's career knows he does not sugar coat or repeat PR niceties. It made me rethink some of my approaches and thoughts about the cost/benefit of any athletes' life, including skaters.

Yes, Jason has 80 million reasons to play football, which sadly does not apply to 99% of figure skaters. But much of what he says does, and I found it thought provoking.

There are so many that study at Elite Universities while skating at Elite level in figure skating. I can tell you from experience that it's sometimes more difficult than other times.

Looked at some data.
Some remarks:
I know these are not significant numbers, so I haven't even calculated something like an average. Take it more as anecdotal. The lists I took them from are also not really comparable, I took the ones easiest to get and click. This also not saying these are the asbolute best in their sport, they are some top competitors which are not hand-chosen by me to prove my point, but, like I said, the ones to work with fastest.

Some numbers may be wrong because of hasty work or my miserable math skills (birth dates, months etc...) I don't think that should change the overall picture.

I took these sports because they came to my mind. I wanted to take some Olympic sports (vs. pro sports where more people can actually make money), individual sports, sports where athleticism plays a big role, sports where heavy injuries occur rather often and can ruin whole seasons easily (decathlon), where weight and weight control play a big role (eg 10000m, high jump, cycling, biathlon...), where jumping plays a huge role, where flexibility plays a huge role (climbing, gymnastics), where coordination plays a huge role (eg basketball).

For some reason I then chose decathlon (heptathlon) to compare the length of the whole senior careers. I didn't want to spend weeks on this, so I looked them up very fast and rounded and estimated a bit. I think decathlon is a) an Olympic sport where most competitors do not make much money. Sponsorships when they are lucky, but no pro contracts b) like fs requires a complex bunch of skills, both athletic and coordinative, and a body in top form c) many competitors are often injured and miss major competitions especially since there are only a few highlights / full competitions in the season.

some current top competitors in
sprint (track) 100m (results '23, as for all athletics)
women: Richardson (23), Jackson (29), Fraser-Pryce (36), Lou (35), Alfred (22)
men: Lyles (26), Tebogo (20), Hughes (28), Seville (22), Coleman (27)
ski alpin (worldcup standings)
men Feller (31), Matt (30), Schwarz (28), Ryding (36), Yule (30)
women Shiffrin (28), Vlhová (28), Hector (31), Dürr (32), Popociv (26)
10,000m
men: Cheptegei (27), Ebenyo (28), Barega (23), Aregawi (22), Kibet (24)
women: Tsegay (26), Gidey (25), Taye (23), Kimais (25), Monson (25)
climbing (lead) (world ranking)
men Sorato (17), Megos (30), Schubert (32), Roberts (18), Homma (24)
women Mori (20), Garnbret (24), Pilz (27), Seo (20), Krampl (23)
biathlon (world cup)
women: Simon (27), Wierer (33), Vittozzi (28), Herrmann (34), Öberg (24)
Boe (30), Laegreid (26), Christiansen (31), Doll (33), Ponsiluoma (28)
high jump
women: Mahuchikh (22), Patterson (27), Olyslagers (27), Lake (26), Herashchenko (28)
men: Tamberi (31), Harrison (24), Barshim (32), Zayas (26), Potye (28)
decathlon: Lepage (27), Warner (34), Victor (30), Tilga (25), Neugebauer (23)
heptathlon: Johnson-Thompson (30), Hall (22), Vetter (30), Krizsán (30), Oosterwegel (25)
long jump
men: Tentóglou (25), Pinnock (23), Gayle (27), McLeod (25), Wang (27)
women: Vuleta (33), Davis (24), Rotaru-Kottmann (30), Brume (27), Iapichino (21)
pole jump:
men: Duplantis (24), Obiena (28), Nilsen (25), Marschall (26), Collet (24)
women: Kennedy (26), Moon (32), Murto (25), Sutej (35), Moser (26)
gmynastics (WC, iaa)
Biles (26), Jones (21), Gadirova (19), Andrade (24), Black (28)
Chiba (27), Kaya (27), Hashimoto (22), Jarman (21), Hall (28), Richard (19)
cycling (ranking)
Pogacar (25), Evenepoel (23), Vingegaard (26), Roglic (34), Philipsen (25)
Vollering (27), Kopecky (28), Wiebes (24), Reusser (32), van Vleuten (41)
tennis (world rankings)
men: Djokovic (36), Alcaraz (20), Medvedev (27), Sinner (22), Rublev (26)
women: Swiatek (22), Sabalenka (25), Gauff (19), Rybakina (24), Pegula (29)
basketball (random list from the internet since I don't know anything about basketball)
Jokic (28), Antetokounmpo (28), Embiid (29), Doncic (24), Curry (35)
Wilson (27), Stewart (29), Jones (29), Delle Donne (34), Chelsea Gray (31)

figure skating (world ranking +russ. winners of last season's major comps)
men: Malinin (18), Fa (22), Uno (25), Kagiyama (20), Miura (18) (RUS: Semenenko (20), Gumennik (21))
women: Shimada (15), Sakamoto (23), Hendrickx (24), Levito (16), Shin (15) (RUS: Akateva (16), Petrosyan (16))

How long did the senior careers of the Olympic winners last?
decathlon
O'Brien ~1990-2002
Nool ~1990-2002
Sebrle ~1997-2013
Clay ~ 2000-2012
Eaton ~ 2006-2017
Warner ~ 2010-today
heptathlon
Shouaa ~1991-2000/2004
Lewis ~1991-2005
Klüft ~ 2000-2012
Dobrynska ~2004-2013
Ennis ~2004-2016
Thiam ~ 2013-today

figure skating:
Kulik ~1995-1998
Yagudin ~1997-2003
Plushchenko ~1998-2014
Lysacek ~2004-2014
Hanyu ~2010-2022
Chen ~2016-2022

Lipinski ~1997-1998
Hughes ~ 2000-2003
Arakawa ~ 1997-2006
Kim 2006-2014
Sotnikowa ~ 2013-2015
Zagitova 2017-1019
Shcherbakova 2018-2022

Okay, I hope this will become a PhD...

This is the first part. It does not show the impact of longevity on popularity of the sport. It shows that senior figure skating careers are indeed rather short on average in comparison and that figure skaters are very young in comparison. The closest are gymnastics and climbing I think - which would indicate that it's especially flexibility that lets the average age and length decrease. However I think even in those sports there are more older top competitors than in fs. I am also not sure about flexibility. It could also be that in the case of gymnastics it's the fact that it's considered more of a women's sport and tradition (and bias of choaches etc.) plays a big role. That it is seen as a "sport for young girls". In climbing a reason could be that, on an Olympic level it's a very young sport. The younger competitors often tend to have a very dynamic style, different from the one that the older ones learned when they were younger. It might be more efficient for sports climbing, while the older ones may come from rock climbing with more static moves???

I will look at popularity another time. This however indicates that the reasons for younger age or shorter careers are not as simple as "they don't earn any money with it and have to invest so much time and hard work so it's not worth it after some time". I'm sure many of these other athletes have to work extremely hard, too. You don't become a decathlon champion without being in the absolute top shape a human can be. Many of these sports are known to require very strict diets and an ascetic lifestyle. I would think it is not one factor but several playing together that lead to comparatively shorter senior careers.

(If people wonder why I did this and did not just take the numbers that can be found in the internet: They often do not look at the numbers and times I was interested in.)

What was your criteria for not going back as far with figure skating as you did with other sports? There's definitely data (might not support what you are proving here but it's there). Boitano, Petrenko, definitely had longer careers. Boitano saw 3 Olympics: 5th in 84, 1st/Gold in 88, and 6th in 94.
Petrenko also saw 3 Olympic Games: 3rd in 88, 1st/Gold in 92 and 4th in 94. And just for fun: We'll add in Urmanov whose Sr. career spanned 9 years, with him winning Olympic Gold/1st in 94 Olympic Games.

I'd also like to make a note regarding Lysacek's career. He was active as a Senior competitor starting in the 2001-2002 season. He went on to place 4th in the 2006 games: He may have actually medalled had he not been sick and running a very high fever, and then we all know about his Gold/1st in the 2010 games. He did have intentions and was training with consistent quads in order to return, but sadly he had to w/draw in 2012 season due to a groin injury/surgery to repair an abdominal muscle tear, and then for the 2013-14 season but ultimately sadly retired due to a labrum injury

These and others also had decently long pro careers.

Ice Dance is a whole other monster b/c you have skaters like Evan Bates who started his Sr. career in 2008 season and is still skating having to date gone to 4 Olympic Games: 2010 Vancouver with Samuelson (placed 11th), then with Chock 2014 Sochi placing 5th, 2018 Pyeongchang 9th, 2022 Beijing 4th.


Just something to think about.

 

[icewhite]

There are so many that study at Elite Universities while skating at Elite level in figure skating. I can tell you from experience that it's sometimes more difficult than other times.

What was your criteria for not going back as far with figure skating as you did with other sports? There's definitely data (might not support what you are proving here but it's there). Boitano, Petrenko, definitely had longer careers. Boitano saw 3 Olympics: 5th in 84, 1st/Gold in 88, and 6th in 94.
Petrenko also saw 3 Olympic Games: 3rd in 88, 1st/Gold in 92 and 4th in 94. And just for fun: We'll add in Urmanov whose Sr. career spanned 9 years, with him winning Olympic Gold/1st in 94 Olympic Games.

I'd also like to make a note regarding Lysacek's career. He was active as a Senior competitor starting in the 2001-2002 season. He went on to place 4th in the 2006 games: He may have actually medalled had he not been sick and running a very high fever, and then we all know about his Gold/1st in the 2010 games. He did have intentions and was training with consistent quads in order to return, but sadly he had to w/draw in 2012 season due to a groin injury/surgery to repair an abdominal muscle tear, and then for the 2013-14 season but ultimately sadly retired due to a labrum injury

These and others also had decently long pro careers.

Ice Dance is a whole other monster b/c you have skaters like Evan Bates who started his Sr. career in 2008 season and is still skating having to date gone to 4 Olympic Games: 2010 Vancouver with Samuelson (placed 11th), then with Chock 2014 Sochi placing 5th, 2018 Pyeongchang 9th, 2022 Beijing 4th.


Just something to think about.

Ice dance and pairs are definitely the big counterpoint to my whole argument and this thread and I don't know what to do with that myself. The careers are a lot longer and should bring out idols big enough to make the sport popular at least in certain countries. But then there is the gender issue and needing a partner etc... I will have to think about how to make sense of it all.

Regarding Lysacek I tried to apply similar measurements to the other careers as well.

I thought I pretty much did go back similarly in time? I started with the athletes that I myself remember a bit, winning gold in the Olympics in the late 90s. Ah, but now I understand where the issue might come from: I looked at O'Brien /Kulik/Shouaa/Lipinski as winners of Olympic gold 96/98 and when their senior careers started, I didn't start with a particular career beginning year.

 

[Mathman]

The last three posts on this thread are great!

Some observations. (1) Using Brian Boitano's experience as an example, he got 5th, 1st and 6th in his three Olympics. (Not that there is anything wrong with being the 6th best in the world -- I wish I were the 6th best mathematician in the world ) Still, an athlete is not as good in his rookie year as he will become later. He is not as good in his final year as he once was. Sort of like life.

Whitey Ford was the best pitcher in major league baseball for a large chunk of his 16-year career with the New York Yankees, winning 6 world series and many individual honors. Finally the accumulated nagging injuries caught up with him. In his last few seasons he was not able to dominate batters with his 95 mile an hour fastball any more, and he had to rely on a variety of garbage pitches (including the illegal spitball. As he admitted after he retired, "I didn't begin cheating until late in my career when I needed something to help me survive. I didn't cheat when I won the twenty-five games in 1961, Don't take my Cy Young Award away.")

(2) What stands out most starkly in the figure skating examples presented here is

Lipinski ~1997-1998
Hughes ~ 2000-2003
Sotnikowa ~ 2013-2015
Zagitova 2017-1019
Shcherbakova 2018-2022

Each of these, however, is an individual case. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva came up together in juniors and were feted as the futue of Russian ladies figure skating. One jumped up and grabbed the big prize, then was gone. The other is still going strong a decade later, having picked up world gold and silver along the way.

Tara Lipinski wore out her hip joints overtraining the loop jump as a youngster. The triple loop/ triple loop combo gave her the Olympic championship but robbed her of a longer career.

 

[Amei]

The last three posts on this thread are great!

Some observations. (1) Using Brian Boitano's experience as an example, he got 5th, 1st and 6th in his three Olympics. (Not that there is anything wrong with being the 6th best in the world -- I wish I were the 6th best mathematician in the world ) Still, an athlete is not as good in his rookie year as he will become later. He is not as good in his final year as he once was. Sort of like life.

Whitey Ford was the best pitcher in major league baseball for a large chunk of his 16-year career with the New York Yankees, winning 6 world series and many individual honors. Finally the accumulated nagging injuries caught up with him. In his last few seasons he was not able to dominate batters with his 95 mile an hour fastball any more, and he had to rely on a variety of garbage pitches (including the illegal spitball. As he admitted after he retired, "I didn't begin cheating until late in my career when I needed something to help me survive. I didn't cheat when I won the twenty-five games in 1961, Don't take my Cy Young Award away.")

(2) What stands out most starkly in the figure skating examples presented here is

Lipinski ~1997-1998
Hughes ~ 2000-2003
Sotnikowa ~ 2013-2015
Zagitova 2017-1019
Shcherbakova 2018-2022

Each of these, however, is an individual case. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva came up together in juniors and were feted as the futue of Russian ladies figure skating. One jumped up and grabbed the big prize, then was gone. The other is still going strong a decade later, having picked up world gold and silver along the way.

Tara Lipinski wore out her hip joints overtraining the loop jump as a youngster. The triple loop/ triple loop combo gave her the Olympic championship but robbed her of a longer career.

A) most OGMs for ladies retired shortly after their win since Kristi Yamaguchi, the exceptions being Zagitova who competed another 1.5 seasons and Yuna (& I always got the vibe she continued at the insistence of the Fed not really because she wanted to):

• Shcherbakova last competition was the Russian Channel One Cup at almost 18 years old
• Zagitova competed for 1.5 more , went on "break" at 17
• Sotnikova WD from her competitions the following season then competed in the 15-16 season, OGM season she was 17, her last appearance in competition she was 19
• Yuna did compete for another 4 years going to another Olympics however all she competed at was nationals, worlds and a qualifier to get her TES minimums. OGM season she was 20 retired at 24
• Shizuka Arakawa never stepped on competitive ice again, she was 25 when she won OGM
• Sarah Hughes skated at 2 competitions the following season and then retired at 18
• Tara Lipinski - never stepped on competitive ice again, retired at 15
• Oksana Baiul never stepped on competitive ice again, retired at 16
• Krisit Yamaguchi skated at Worlds the season she won OGM but retired that season, retired at 21

B) Shcherbakova intended to continue but for reasons outside her control she cannot compete internationally and has focused on less intense show skating.

 

[el henry]

whole post

Kristi, Oksana and Tara competed when pro competitions were still "a thing" and the only way for a skater to make money. All skaters who had pro options retired so they could finally make some coin. Tara Lipinski, who I believe tried pro competitions but had to give it up because she was injured.

As for the other skaters, do we know how many retired because they were so injured they could no longer compete, and how many stepped away willingly, happy and healthy?

Do we know for those who were injured, but would have preferred continuing to compete, to go for a second gold, what training regimens or other practices would have allowed them to compete longer and stay healthy?

Jumping off, since only one skater every four years wins Oly gold what do we do for the multitude of other skaters? Nowadays, when skater can make money and remain in competition, how do we help those skaters who want long careers skating?

 

[eppen]

The 19 women's OGM winners since 1947 and the age when they first compteted in international seniors and the age when they retired from competition, meaning that the retirement age is usually the age they won the Olys. (The only ones to continue after the OGM were Witt and Kim.) Then the average age of participants in the Olys they won and the average age of the medalists. Bolded every 21 or older age

ADD: Forgot that I had looked at also number of participants who went to multiple Olys. Added them.

1948 Scott 12–20 - all av. 19,3 - medalists av. 18,7 - multiple 0
1952 Altwegg 16–21 - all av. 19,6 - medalists av. 19,3 - multiple 3
1956 Albright 15–20 - all av. 17,8 - medalists av. 17,0 - multiple 1
1960 Heiss 13–20 - all av. 17,0 - medalists av. 19,0 - multiple 3
1964 Dijkstra 12–22 - all av. 18,3 - medalists av. 20,0 - multiple 8
1968 Fleming 15–19 - all av. 17,3 - medalists av. 18,7 - multiple 7
1972 Schuba 15–20 - all av. 17,9 - medalists av. 19,0 - multiple 8
1976 Hamill 15–19 - all av. 16,6 - medalists av. 19,3 - multiple 3
1980 Pötzsch 11–20 - all av. 18,6 - medalists av. 19,7 - multiple 8
1984 Witt 12–22 - all av. 18,7 - medalists av. 19,3 - multiple 4
1988 Witt 12–22 - all av. 20,0 - medalists av. 21,0 - multiple 7
1992 Yamaguchi 17–20 - all av. 18,6 - medalists av. 21,0 - multiple 4
1994 Baiul 14–16 - all av. 18,9 - medalists av. 19,0 - multiple 10
1998 Lipinski 13–15 - all av. 20,3 - medalists av. 17,7 - multiple 8
2002 Hughes 13–17 - all av. 21,0 - medalists av. 20,0 - - multiple 9
2006 Arakawa 12–24 - all av. 21,7 - medalists av. 24,0 - multiple 12
2010 Kim 15–23 - all av. 21,2 - medalists av. 20,7 - multiple 11
2014 Sotnikova 15–19 - all av. 20,2 - medalists av. 22,3 - multiple 7
2018 Zagitova 15–18 - all av. 19,4 - medalists av. 18,3 - multiple 7
2022 Shcherbakova 15–18 - all av. 19,7 - medalists av. 18,3 - multiple 6

My take from this is that elite women's FS has been a young woman's game in the modern era. (And btw in the 1930s, the early- to mid-teenagers already ruled the sport.) I do wonder if it is possible to change this and am following with great interest what happens when they will really start seniors at 17.

 

[eppen]

That collection of data and calculations were inspired by a series of blogs on women's artistic gymnastics and what happened in that sport so that athletes like Simone Biles can still shine in their mid-20s: https://themedalcount.com/2022/06/19/why-did-gymnastics-pivot-towards-older-athletes-part-i/

In the 1980s and 1990s there seemed not to have been many elite gymnasts that were older than 17... Women's FS is mentioned there as having a "teenager problem" of its own, but hey, FS has NEVER had it that bad. They did a lot of changes in many aspects of the sport and today the age structure is very different. But it is difficult to think how their examples could be applied to FS because they are so different as sports.

 

[4everchan]

Marketing an olympic gold in figure skating can be very lucrative for some, especially young, attractive women. I am only saying this because I feel the data may be more accurate by looking at world championships, year after year, rather than the one in a 4 year event.
There is also the "what's left to do in the sport" after winning that special prize. Who wants to wait for another four year to maybe have a chance at it again? It has happened with very young winners who were not yet at their peak and managed to win... in the male category especially. But with women, repeat olympic medal (not even just gold) winners are rare and from an other era.

In any case, I find the comparison with other sports interesting but not necessarily that meaningful considering the requirements of a skill set based sport like figure skating. It has very little to do with marathon running or alpine skiing for instance. So on the athletic level, it's not convincing to me. Gymnastics is a closer comparison I would believe.
The comparison is however very useful in terms of the general public who may be not getting attracted to short careers by teenagers, versus longer career by adult athletes.

 

[Mathman]

@ eppen: for this compilation, and also to @Amel. Taken as a whole, not much has changed in the last 70 years.

Marketing an olympic gold in figure skating can be very lucrative for some, especially young, attractive women.

The old rule of thumb used to be (in the 1990s, say) that an Oympic Gold Medal in figure skating was worth about $US 15 million to an American lady. Dorothy Hamill and Kristi Yamaguchi made this much, Tara Lipinski and Sarah Hughes, no. Michelle Kwan made this much without the OGM.

Yuna Kim is a special case because she is not just a skater but a national treasure in Korea.

 

[Mathman]

• Yuna did compete for another 4 years going to another Olympics however all she competed at was nationals, worlds and a qualifier to get her TES minimums. OGM season she was 20 retired at 24

Kim certainly scaled back after 2010, but I am still delighted that she mustered the resolve to deliver the 2013 Worlds Les Miz performance -- to me, her finest ever.

• Kristi Yamaguchi skated at Worlds the season she won OGM but retired that season, retired at 2

I have read that one factor in Yamaguchi's decision to retire was that the USFSA was overly aggressive in trying to lean on her to do Skate America in 1993, not giving her a chance to recover from the whirlwind Olympic season and its aftermath or adequately to prepare new programs. Plus, her financial advisor (who was also her uncle) calculated that she could make about the same amount of money whichever way she went, :amateur" or professional.

Evan Lysacek was rumored to have similar concerns regarding Skate America 2011.

As for Kristi turning pro, I don't know if this story is really true or just speculation -- maybe IceRabbit or some other insider can comment? -- but the scuttlebutt goes that after the 1992 Olympics the Stars on Ice financial guys sat down with Scott Hamilton to discuss how to freshen up his show. Scott said, "We need to sign some of the current Olympians, like Kristi Yamaguchi." The marketing people said, "No, Scott, we don't need to sign someone like Kristi Yamguchi -- we need to sign Kristi Yamaguchi." Kristi hard-balled the negotiatons and emerged with a killer contract.

 

[skatesofgold]

Marketing an olympic gold in figure skating can be very lucrative for some, especially young, attractive women. I am only saying this because I feel the data may be more accurate by looking at world championships, year after year, rather than the one in a 4 year event.
There is also the "what's left to do in the sport" after winning that special prize. Who wants to wait for another four year to maybe have a chance at it again? It has happened with very young winners who were not yet at their peak and managed to win... in the male category especially. But with women, repeat olympic medal (not even just gold) winners are rare and from an other era.

In any case, I find the comparison with other sports interesting but not necessarily that meaningful considering the requirements of a skill set based sport like figure skating. It has very little to do with marathon running or alpine skiing for instance. So on the athletic level, it's not convincing to me. Gymnastics is a closer comparison I would believe.
The comparison is however very useful in terms of the general public who may be not getting attracted to short careers by teenagers, versus longer career by adult athletes.

I actually don't think it's the age limit in gymnastics that has led to longer careers because the age limit has been the same since 1997. The only difference is that those who turn 15 in the pre-Olympic year are no longer allowed to compete as seniors in the pre-Olympic year even though they're eligible to compete in the Olympics the next year when they turn 16. I think in many countries the pool of athletes who makes it to the elite level is relatively small, so there aren't as many up-and-comers who make a splash. I also think training methods have improved, like minimizing hard landings. Additionally, some of the more fragile gymnasts only do their biggest skills and compete all-around at worlds and the Olympics, like Rebeca Andrade. Either way, gymnasts tend to stick around longer when there is no one to replace them.