There are two parts to your thinking here. To you they are cause and effect. You look at the environment and accordingly set the criteria of winning. Then you assess what Patrick needs to have a chance of winning, which you decide he does not have. Thus you refuse to hope until he his fulfilled your criteria.
Let me address the hope part first, which I did with a long winded post earlier. Basically, you refuse to hope for fear of disappointment which to you would be more intense than the joy of hope. What if you eliminate disappointment? Decide that you will not be disappointed no matter what, then could you simply enjoy the hope? Joy without pain!
Then there is a matter of winning. We have enough experiences from previous events big and small to know it is really not predictable and out of our control. It does not necessarily happen according to conditions you or I set, as logical and realistic as they may be. As a competitor, Patrick needs to do his part of preparation for competition, physical, mental and emotional. In accordance with formula for success, the winning mindset is a prerequisite, indispensable even with all the training and the technical prowess. Ask Mohamed Ali. As Patrick's supporter and knowing that he does want to win along with his other goals, I am not going to exclude it from my hope and expectation. And neither should Patrick.
BTW, it was not in Patrick's plan to introduce the 4S last season. He and his coach had mapped out a progressive plan to reintroduce the big elements in his programs for his comeback without risking injuries. They achieved the goal with 2 quads and 2 3As beautifully executed in his LP at 4CC. A repeat performance would have put him on the Worlds podium but their deliberate ruling out winning resulted in the unfortunate circumstances and an out of podium finish. I cited various observations and examples as demonstrations of the such metaphysical consequences.
I look forward to see his 4S next season. I won't be disappointed if he does not do it.
I just want to add something about negative goal setting and conditional goal setting. People often self impose conditions of achieving their goals, or making their achievements sequential and consequential, e.g. to have happiness after success, to have love after weight loss, to win only if self determined amount of hard work has been put in, etc. when they are really separate goals and not necessarily dependent or consequential unless you make them so. Thus, performance and winning are separate goals even if they are often associated.
Steven Bradbury just wanted to have his best performance but notice he did not rule out winning. I LOL

when it happened live! Another funniest win in speed skating was when a non contender rushed out in front early against all smart strategies in a long distance event. The contenders ignored him but were watching one another. He ended up lapping them all and tucking himself comfortably right behind everybody, looking like he was dead last but won easily by almost a lap! See, there are many many ways to win so why rule it out? Winning is not in conflict with performing well. They are neither conditional or exclusive.
Do well. Win. Have it all, Patrick. Above all, be happy.
Violet I'm going to reply together and then let us agree to move on and let the fans celebrate Patrick. PM me please if you'd like to continue.
In any sport that is not based on beating a clock you have to consider the environment and other athletes. In a sport where men need quads to be on the podium then unless the men with the quads have a melt down (kind of like 2016 Junior Worlds) you cannot win just doing triples. Adam Rippon is an example of that this year. He had brilliant performances but could not crack the top 5 with just triples (and that under-rotated 4Lz). How do you propose we set the criteria of winning? Moving, clean performances that are not technically on par with other top athletes will not guarantee a win.
As for hope, no I don't want to have false hope. As harsh as this sounds, I don't want to be disappointed again when it comes to Patrick. That is my personal choice from experience. That's why I wish Patrick well but do not hope or expect much. It'd be great to see him do some of the amazing things he's capable of but if he chooses not to do them then there is no harm. I am no longer expecting him to be the best. If he is, that's great. If he's not, oh well. I'll still enjoy what he puts out there, and I suspect so will most of you.
This thing is, in order to win you have to give it everything. Everything artistically, everything technically. If that means upping your game, then you do it. No one should go into the Olympics hoping that their rivals will mess up enough for them to win. You should be at the top of your game to the point that you are not beatable unless you have a meltdown. I've seen Hanyu fans understand this quite clearly - if your rivals learn new tricks, you keep up. That is the bare minimum I want to see from Patrick. He doesn't skate in a vacuum, and he cannot expect his rivals to make mistakes. He's already no longer earning the highest PCS. He has no cushion left PCS-wise. What's the next step when you've got a ceiling for PCS anyways? Up your TES. That's what I want to see, and I want him to do it seriously. The two 3As and extra 4T were nice, but he knows he needs more than that to keep up with Fernandez, Hanyu, Jin, and now Uno. Especially when he has pops and turns the quad into a triple regularly.
And yes, his coach and him had a plan. After GPF he tried to change it up. He practised quad Salchows. He hurt himself, and gave up on including it this season. Bev Smith wrote about it
here. He also states here the limitations he's put on himself. That's where some of my questions come from - I know he's capable of more technically, but he's already stated that he won't do four quads in a program. I can bet you that some men are going to be doing just that next year because they are pushing themselves technically and have a
strong desire to win. These are not limitations I'm putting on Patrick, but the ones he's choosing for himself.
As for the second part of your post: I'd like to see him win doing his best, regardless of what everyone else does. He should be aiming to be technically untouchable while also aiming to win. I'm not sure what else to say to convey this opinion.