Predictions?

[london_calling]

Men
1. Joubert
2. Buttle
3. Abbott

Ladies
1. Asada
2. Rochette
3. Nakano

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Dube/Davison
3. Kawaguchi & Smirnov

Dance
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Gregory/Petukhov
3. Cappellini/LaNotte

 

[rochettefan]

A lock on silver? I understand Nakano is going great guns and racked up a huge score at Japanese Regionals. She scored 66.40 in the SP and 118.36 in the FS, where she landed her 3A.

Rochette has to skate two clean programs and score a PB in both to have any chance at gold or even silver, if Nakano is skating this well.

Isn't Rochette doing the same FS she did last season? She should be brimming with confidence. If Rochette looked tentative at the training camp, that isn't a good sign, considering that Nakano and Asada are both in good fighting trim.

I hadn't heard that. Last I knew, Nakano was a skater just on par with Rochette, who I always assumed she could beat if she skated well. Hard to beat a triple axel. Did she also do triple triple in the FS with that score? As for Rochette, no I didn't think she looked great, though I think it was the new SP that I saw. She is keeping the LP from last year, which I personally like alot. Her second best program after Firebird, but that's not hard to imagine since she has made some bizarre choices like the Madonna SP, the muzak Long she did at Olympics. One things for sure, it's not looking like the competition is going to get any easier. Seems like all the top-10 girls are talking about the triple-triple these days.

 

[chuckm]

"Just on par"? At the past two Worlds, Nakano has finished in the top 6 (6th at 2007 Worlds and 5th at 2006 Worlds in Canada), and has been a seeded skater in the GP. Rochette was 10th at 2007 Worlds and 7th at 2006 Worlds (home ice). Nakano is 5th on the ISU Rankings list to Rochette's 9th.

 

[mizu_iro]

Yukari's always been a much steadier skater than Joannie, and her recent triple axels have looked absolutely gorgeous:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Wt4cNySMKvE

Her wrap seems to bother a lot of people, but it hasn't really hurt her GOE. She's one of the strongest spinners currently, lacking in hyper-flexibility but making up for it with great speed, centering and very detailed positions (her donut!). She's working on a 3S-3R combo, which, if she can get it ratified, will put her on the same plane of difficulty as the top ladies.

Joannie is a lovely, lovely skater whose only weaknesses are her nerves and lack of a 3-3, but her nerves tend to get in the way in almost every competition. If Nakano does her usual, expected performance (a ratified 3A judging from her current form and 1, maybe 2 pops/underrotations), she'll beat Joannie, who probably won't be able to put together two clean programs.

 

[museksk8r]

"Just on par"? At the past two Worlds, Nakano has finished in the top 6 (6th at 2007 Worlds and 5th at 2006 Worlds in Canada), and has been a seeded skater in the GP. Rochette was 10th at 2007 Worlds and 7th at 2006 Worlds (home ice). Nakano is 5th on the ISU Rankings list to Rochette's 9th.

Rochette did beat Nakano in the LP at Worlds last year though. Joannie was 5th and Yukari was 6th and Joannie had the 3rd highest tech marks behind Asada and Ando without a 3Axel or a 3+3. Joannie also has 2 golds on the Grand Prix and Yukari has 1. Joannie has a top 5 finish at the Olympics. They both have a bronze from the Grand Prix Final. Rochette may not be doing the most difficult jump combos in her programs (yet), but when she is "on" with her jumps, they garner high GOE points. She also doesn't have Nakano's annoying leg wrap in her jumps. Yukari is not as superior over Joannie as you are trying to make her sound. I agree that they are pretty even, with an edge IMO to Rochette. Skating is about more than just difficult jumps.

 

[Saundy]

Men
1. Joubert
2. Buttle
3. Mabee

Ladies
1. Asada
2. Rochette
3. Nakano OR Hughes

Pairs
1. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy OR Dube & Davison (I wouldn't rule it out after Skate America...I didn't dream they'd beat the Chinese)
2. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy OR Dube & Davison
3. Kawaguchi & Smirnov

Dance
1. Virtue & Moir
2. Gregory & Petukhov
3. Cappellini & Lanotte

I, personally, don't see Melissa and Denis beating Tessa and Scott, but 2nd place is definitely in their grasp.

 

[slutskayafan21]

"Just on par"? At the past two Worlds, Nakano has finished in the top 6 (6th at 2007 Worlds and 5th at 2006 Worlds in Canada), and has been a seeded skater in the GP. Rochette was 10th at 2007 Worlds and 7th at 2006 Worlds (home ice). Nakano is 5th on the ISU Rankings list to Rochette's 9th.

I consider them on a similar level. Yeah like you said Nakano placed higher at the last 2 Worlds, and at last years Worlds she was 5th to Joannie's 10th. However after the big 4 of Asada, Kim, Ando, Meissner, there are are really 6 to 8 women who are at a similar level who can place in any position, so in a way 5th to 10th isnt as big a difference in this case. Joannie and Nakano have each won a single GP event the last 2 seasons, and last year they each managed 24 points from their GP events. Joannie's best finish at a global event is 5th at the Olympics, matching Nakano's best ever finish. Both have a bronze medal from the GP final a different year.

Unless Nakano has improved alot, and from what you are saying she may well have, they have been at a very similar level as skaters in the past, and Nakano in the past is someone Joannie could definitely beat on a good day. The triple axel doesnt do anything amazing for her that I see. At Four Continents one year she landed a triple axel, made the exact same mistake as Katy Taylor, popping a triple loop to a single, and still lost the overall gold, both scoring in the same 107+ in the free skate. Often she gets it downgraded even when she does land it.

 

[chuckm]

Rochette did beat Nakano in the LP at Worlds last year though. Joannie was 5th and Yukari was 6th and Joannie had the 3rd highest tech marks behind Asada and Ando without a 3Axel or a 3+3. Joannie also has 2 golds on the Grand Prix and Yukari has 1. Joannie has a top 5 finish at the Olympics. They both have a bronze from the Grand Prix Final. Rochette may not be doing the most difficult jump combos in her programs (yet), but when she is "on" with her jumps, they garner high GOE points. She also doesn't have Nakano's annoying leg wrap in her jumps. Yukari is not as superior over Joannie as you are trying to make her sound. I agree that they are pretty even, with an edge IMO to Rochette. Skating is about more than just difficult jumps.

Joannie finished 16th in the SP at 2007 Worlds to go with her 5th in the FS. Nakano was 7th in the SP and 6th in the FS and finished 6th to Rochette's 10th.

Nakano did not skate at the Olympics (Miki was sent instead, and bombed). She went to 2006 Worlds instead of Miki and placed 5th to Rochette's 7th.

Rochette's two gold medals were one at Skate Canada 2006 and one at TEB 2004. In 2006, she had a gold and a 4th place, and in 2004 she had the gold and a 5th place, and in that season she won bronze in the GPF. She has never won medals in both her GP events, and she won no medals at all in the 2005-2006 GP season.

Nakano had a gold medal and a 5th place in the 2005 GP, and she won bronze in the GPF. Last season, she won silver and bronze in her two GP events.

Oh, and Nakano has a silver 4CC medal to Rochette's bronze.

I don't see that Rochette has any edge over Nakano, who is a far more consistent skater. The one and only advantage that Rochette has at Skate Canada is home ice.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Joannie finished 16th in the SP at 2007 Worlds to go with her 5th in the FS. Nakano was 7th in the SP and 6th in the FS and finished 6th to Rochette's 10th.

Nakano did not skate at the Olympics (Miki was sent instead, and bombed). She went to 2006 Worlds instead of Miki and placed 5th to Rochette's 7th.

Rochette's two gold medals were one at Skate Canada 2006 and one at TEB 2004. In 2006, she had a gold and a 4th place, and in 2004 she had the gold and a 5th place, and in that season she won bronze in the GPF. She has never won medals in both her GP events, and she won no medals at all in the 2005-2006 GP season.

Nakano had a gold medal and a 5th place in the 2005 GP, and she won bronze in the GPF. Last season, she won silver and bronze in her two GP events.

Oh, and Nakano has a silver 4CC medal to Rochette's bronze.

I don't see that Rochette has any edge over Nakano, who is a far more consistent skater. The one and only advantage that Rochette has at Skate Canada is home ice.

Rochette did win a medal in the 2005-2006 GP season with a silver at Skate Canada. What you are showing is Nakano and Rochette in the GP circuit are quite similar.

You mention Nakano having a gold and 5th place in the 2005 GP season, then a bronze at that years GP final. Exact same as Joannie the season previous with a gold and a 5th place, then a bronze at that years GP final.

Nakano has medaled in both her GP events in a single season while Joannie hasnt, but Joannie has won 2 GP events while Nakano has won only 1 GP event.

Rochette was 3rd at Four Continents behind Meissner and Emily Hughes. Nakano was 2nd behind Katy Taylor. Not hard to see who had the tougher competition.

 

[chuckm]

It's Nakano's CONSISTENCY which gives her the edge over Rochette, who rarely has had two good programs in the same competition.

Even in her 2006 Skate Canada gold medal performance, Rochette was 5th in the SP. The competition wasn't that tough, either, since it was Yu-Na Kim's first GP event and Suguri isn't known to be a strong GP competitor. At TEB 2006, Rochette was 3rd in the SP, but had a messy FS and finished 4th overall, losing out on the GPF as a result. And that was a competition where NONE of the ladies skated well in the FS, and if Rochette had delivered in the FS, she could have won the competition.

Nakano was 2nd in both SP and FS at Cup of China, and won silver. Her second competition was at NHK, where she finished 3rd in both SP and FS, and won bronze behind Asada and Suguri.

Nakano is consistent, Rochette is not. If Rochette was a more even performer, she might have the edge on Nakano, but historically that has not been the case.

 

[museksk8r]

in 2004 she had the gold and a 5th place, and in that season she won bronze in the GPF. She has never won medals in both her GP events, and she won no medals at all in the 2005-2006 GP season.

Please do a fact check before slighting Joannie. She won the bronze at Cup of China behind Irina Slutskaya and Viktoria Volchkova in 2004 in addition to her gold in France, so the fact is she has won 2 medals in the same Grand Prix season, the same season she won the Final bronze. I don't know where your 5th place is coming from. In the 2005-2006 GP season where you're trying to claim she didn't medal, she in fact won a silver at Skate Canada behind Alissa Czisny, who had the best skate of her career. Also, her skates in the Grand Prix France meet in 2005 were definitely medal worthy. She was good in both SP and LP phases with her only error in the SP being a turn in between the combo and in the LP, her only error was a step-out of the final jump of her 3 jump combination, but she was up against Mao Asada, Sasha Cohen, and Shizuka Arakawa and finished 4th.

Check her bio: http://www.isufs.org/bios/isufs00004797.htm

 

[chuckm]

Sorry for 'slighting' Joannie, but the point system changed last season and I looked at the earlier results with 2006-2007 eyes.

I still stand by my statement that Joannie's consistency is an issue. She messes up either in the SP or the FS at every competition, and that's the ONLY way she can be called consistent.

2003 Worlds 9th QR, 16th SP, 19th FS, 17th overall
2004 Worlds 5th QR, 9th SP, 8th FS, 8th overall
2005 Worlds 5th QR, 9th SP, 15th FS, 11th overall
2006 Olympics 9th SP, 5th FS, 5th overall
2006 Worlds 1st QR, 7th SP, 8th FS
2007 Worlds 16th SP, 5th FS

Joannie was fairly consistent in 2003-2004, finishing evenly in all segments at Worlds those years. But after her her bravura performance at Canadians 2005, when many predicted she would win Worlds, the self-doubt seemed to creep in, and she had a bad competition at Worlds 2005. Since then, she's not had two strong performances at the same competition.

 

[rochettefan]

My original post I stated if Joannie Rochette has come to Skate Canada, physically and more importantly mentally ready, she should beat Nakano. I didn't state "If Joannie comes and makes mistakes". Everybody knows that she is inconsistent. I really dont' think Nakano has any edge as far as results over her, except at Worlds. Certainly not on the grand prix circuit. Nakano scored a silver last year, but it was against the weakest field and she was beaten by Julia Sebastien. Even Rochette's meltdown in Paris, she scored almost as high overall as that performance. And at worlds last year, Rochette was underscored in her short program. She had the fall on the footwork, but she did land all the jumps cleanly, so I think she should have scored more around 55 (if she was still enjoying the PCS she had after her skate Canada win, as in the SP in Paris), instead of the lowly 49 she was given.

But this is all based on last year's results.

If Nakano has a ratified triple axel and a triple triple in her LP at SC AND Rochette skates equivalent to last year's performance, Nakano will win. But if Rochette can match that triple-triple with one of her own, then I think she wins. That's a lot of if's. It's gong to be very exciting.

And what about Mao? There has been some debate, but I loved her program on youtube. I can't remember now if I saw SP or LP, but I do remember a new maturity, a tall graceful look. What does she have planned for SCanada I wonder? I heard rumors about triple axel combination now.

 

[alclswhrqkfl]

Ladies:
1. Joannie Rochette
2. Mao Asada
3. Yukari Nakano

Men:
1. Brian Joubert
2. Jeffrey Buttle
3. Jeremy Abbott

Pairs:
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Dube/Davison
3. Kawaguchi/Smirnov

Dance:
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Gregory/Petukhov
3. Cappellini/Lanotte

 

[Sackie]

I would pick Joannie to win silver or even gold as long as she is behind a bit after the short. If she is in 1st or 2nd after the short she will end up 3rd or even lower. She doesn't seem to do well when she has a very good short and is put under the pressure to win. Last year she was pretty much written off from winning when she ended up 5th in the short.
Would be nice to see Cynthia in the top 6 and Lesley top 8. Anything more would be gravy for them. Lesley has the goods but she just does not seem to get it together in international events.
In Mens Jeff needs to be at least 2nd here. But he some times has shown he's not ready for SC. After Patrick's showing last week Chris really needs to step it up here. But unfortunately knowing this may just be his undoing. If Patrick had not done as well last week Chris might have been in a better space for this week. Hopefully Chris can just focus in on the fact that he has recently beaten Jeff in a comp.
V/M should take dance but I think it will be closer then expected. I don't think the judges want to peg any teams just yet and are therefore more willing to keep things close, as they did at SA. For me V/M's big let doen could be in their org dance - for some reason I can see her dropping the prop and having deductions! (If they keep it after the summer camp where hopefully someone took them aside and explained this to them) W/P should be shooting for a top 5 here.
In pairs D/D have to get the silver to keep the momentum in their corner. If they slip to 3rd - it will make last week look like a mistake. Hopefully D/B can also have a good showing here to leave a nice taste in the judges mouths in case they make it to worlds.

 

[dfj]

V/M should take dance but I think it will be closer then expected. I don't think the judges want to peg any teams just yet and are therefore more willing to keep things close, as they did at SA. For me V/M's big let doen could be in their org dance - for some reason I can see her dropping the prop and having deductions! (If they keep it after the summer camp where hopefully someone took them aside and explained this to them)

At camp they were training with Tracey Wilson so I assume each and every aspect of both their OD and FD were pointed out. Let's hope for the best.

[Of course I'm so biased that these two could just stand there and I'd think they were fabulous ]

 

[chuckm]

I would pick Joannie to win silver or even gold as long as she is behind a bit after the short. If she is in 1st or 2nd after the short she will end up 3rd or even lower. She doesn't seem to do well when she has a very good short and is put under the pressure to win. Last year she was pretty much written off from winning when she ended up 5th in the short.

Joannie is almost assured to be behind after the SP. Both Asada and Nakano are capable of scoring above 60, and Joannie has never reached that benchmark. But she cannot afford to be that much behind these two Japanese ladies, because then she could end up like Lysacek, winning the FS but not the competition because she got edged on SP points.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Nakano has done many clean shorts and they all score only in the 58-60 point range. Rochette does not do many clean shorts, but she could easily score atleast that high if she did.

Rochette's PB in the short is a 58.92 with 1 point lost for a time violation, so without the silly time violation it is a 59.92. Nakano's PB in the short is a 60.62 at Worlds, less then a point higher then Rochette's PB without the 1 point time violation, and that is with many more clean shorts and opportunities to set a big score.

 

[chuckm]

And what of Asada, who scored 68.84 at SA 2006, 69.50 at NHK 2006, 69.34 at the GPF (when she was sick), and 61.32 at Worlds? Sure, Worlds was a low mark (for Asada), but then she came back and scored 133.13 in the FS.

Rochette's SP scores last season were 55.60 at SC 2006, 58.92 at TEB 2006, 56.63 at 4CC 2007, and 49.85 at Worlds 2007. That averages out to 55.25 to Asada's 67.25.

There is no question that Asada will dominate in the SP, and if she doesn't fall to pieces, in the FS.

As for the head-to-head with Nakano, it all depends which Joannie Rochette shows up: a confident, aggressive Rochette, or a hesitant, insecure Rochette.

 

[Buzzz]

Any practice reports yet?