Predictions!

[harmy18]

Mao certainly is not unbeatable. Remember, she only won her World title by 1 point last season. Carolina was only 1 point behind and Yu-Na was only 2 points behind. Asada has been beaten by Kim on numerous occasions and by Ando.

Though I agree with you, however when I consider the recent 2 years, I would say if Mao has a clean programme, Joannie can hardly BEAT her. I think the probability Joannie wins may be that Mao falls at least once while Joannie has flawless programmes. Another question is whether Mao still flutz or not

 

[gopatrick]

I only follow the guys, so I can't speak for the other disciplines, but I've noticed that PJ Kwong's picks for the men are far too "obvious" during a season where unpredictability is the norm. I think she failed to take into account of the fact that this is the Year of the Underdog! I only became a figure skating fan in January, but so far I've done a much better job predicting the male winners than she has!

Her pick for SA was Johnny Weir: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/the_grand_prix_season_begins.html

Her pick for SC was Evan Lysacek: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/youth_will_be_on_display_at_sk.html

Her pick for CoC was Tomas Verner: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/11/ice_dance_front_and_centre_at.html

I think Brian Joubert might be cursed!

Give me 5!
You read my mind!

 

[siberia82]

Give me 5!
You read my mind!

*high fives gopatrick* :thumbsup: Wow, that's twice already that we've shared the EXACT same thought! Someone call Mulder and Scully to solve this X-File!

 

[singerskates]

Seriously, however, if the outcomes of the past performances (whether it is last season or SP) affect PCS so much, I wonder what the PCS criteria are really meant to be for. If they have to rely so much on the past outcome and reputation, it is almost like saying that the judges cannot assess what is skated here and now.

Really want to know more about PCS (Program Component Scores)? Below are the definitions for the PCS which have nothing to do with what jumps or spins a skater does in their programs but really have to do with how they do their "in between the elements" and leading up to their elements.

"Skating Skills

Definition:
Over all skating quality: edge control and flow over the ice surface demonstrated by a command of the skating vocabulary (edges, steps, turns etc), the clarity of technique and the use of effortless power to accelerate and vary speed.

Criteria:
Balance and rhythmic knee action and precision of foot placement
Flow and effortless glide
Cleanness and sureness of deep edges, steps and turns
Power/energy and acceleration
Mastery of multi directional skating
Mastery of one foot skating


Transitions/Linking Footwork & Movement

Definition:
The varied and or intricate footwork, positions, movements and holds that link all elements. In singles skating this also includes the entrances and exits of technical elements.

Criteria:
Variety
Difficulty
Intricacy
Quality


Performance/Execution

Definition:
Performance: is the involvement of the skater physically, emotionally and intellectually as they translate the intent of the music and choreography.
Execution: is the quality of movement and precision in delivery.

Criteria:
Physical, emotional and intellectual involvement
Carriage
Style and individuality/personality
Clarity of movement
Variety and contrast
Projection


Choreography/Composition

Definition:
An intentional, developed and/or original arrangement of all types of movements according to the principals of proportion, unity, space, pattern, structure and phrasing.

Criteria:
Purpose (idea, concept, vision)
Proportion (equal weight of parts)
Unity (purposeful threading)
Utilization of personal and public space
Pattern and ice coverage
Phrasing and form (movements and parts structured to match the phrasing of the music)
Originality of purpose, movement and design


Interpretation

Definition:
The personal and creative translation of the music to movement on ice.

Criteria:
Effortless movement in time to the music (timing)
Expression of the music’s style, character and rhythm
Use of *finesse to reflect the nuances of the music

* Finesse is the skater’s refined, artful manipulation of nuances. Nuances are the personal artistic ways of bringing subtle variations to the intensity, tempo, and dynamics of the music made by the composer and/or musicians."

That is why Jeffery Buttle and Stephane Lambiel got high PCS marks even when they blew jumps.

 

[Kinga]

Ladies:

1. Mao - She'll be the winner even if she falls twice, minimum.

And this is ridiculous! I am so tired of assumptions that big guns can easily win even if they screw up totally. Is it what figure skating is about??? Are they untouchable?

Exactly! She (Joannie Rochette) has the full arsenal of triples minus the 3Axel, which NO lady in the world does cleanly on a consistent basis. Yukari is known to consistently under-rotate it or double it and Mao is known to consistently two-foot it, pop it into a double, or fall on it. Joannie does clean 3flip+3toe combos in practices and warm-ups, but has not yet been credited with landing it in competition. In this Olympic cycle since 2007, she is one of the few female skaters in the world who regularly gets credit for landing 5 to 7 triples in a LP. Her technique is known to be stronger and cleaner than many skaters who supposedly have the big name tricks. You don't see Joannie getting called for wrong edge entries or under-rotations the way you do with many other skaters. She scores 60+ in TES for the LP very often.

Yes, she is really strong! She has all the triples (except the axel). Look at Yuna and Mao, who have or had problems with loop/salchow, respectively. Also, Mao used to flutz (we will see if this is still the case), many people say that Yuna has lip issue (I am not going to discuss that). So really, there is nothing that separates Joannie from Mao and Yuna. I hope that this season is the time to prove, that they are not unbeatable and to stop this ridiculous assumptions that no matter how Yuna and Mao skate, they are going to win. I hope that Joannie, by her great skating is going to stop the statements like :' she is able to beat them, but it is unlikely'. Come on, show everyone, that it has become likely!

 

[Jaana]

Men
1. Joubert
2. Chan
3. Preaubert
4. Kozuka
5. Bradley
6. Lutai

Ladies
1. Asada
2. Rochette
3. Zhang
4. Hughes
5. Liang
6. Gedevanishvili

Pairs
1. Savchenko & Szolkowy
2. Mukhortova & Trankov
3. Vise & Trent
4. Duhamel & Buntin
5. Canac & Coia

Dance
1. Delobel & Schoenfelder
2. Faiella & Scali
3. Kerr & Kerr
4. Carron & Jost
5. Fraser & Lukanin

 

[propronia]

Men
1 Joubert
2 Kozuka
3 Preaubert
4 Bradley

Ladies
1 Asada
2 Zhang
3 Gedevanishvili
4 Rochette

Pairs
1 S/Z
2 M/T

Dance
1 D/S
2 F/S
3 K/K

I'm kind of expecting retaliations to Skate Canada by multiple parties

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Singerskates - from your list of the items required for scoring the PCS, do you really believe that a judge can go throuh each item listed as he/she is also judging the GoEs from the Tech. I can't believe that can be done in such short time before the numbers are ready. The easiest way to score the PCs is to check out the quads and 3As for skating ability; then ask: how ballet-like was the performance and did the skaters make use of the music. Not unlike the 6.0 system.

 

[so_proud]

Though I agree with you, however when I consider the recent 2 years, I would say if Mao has a clean programme, Joannie can hardly BEAT her. I think the probability Joannie wins may be that Mao falls at least once while Joannie has flawless programmes. Another question is whether Mao still flutz or not

There may be another reason that Joannie cannot beat Mao anyway.

* Technical Specialist: Ms. Olga Markova (Russia)
* Refree: Ms. Junko Hiramatsu (Japan)

 

[Andalusia]

There may be another reason that Joannie cannot beat Mao anyway.

* Technical Specialist: Ms. Olga Markova (Russia)
* Refree: Ms. Junko Hiramatsu (Japan)

I bet if the referee was Korean and Yu-Na was competing in TEB, we wouldn't be hearing a peep from you.

And Kinga, yes, I think Mao is that untouchable. Like chuckm, I think Joannie can beat Mao, but that is a very slim possibility. I don't mind being proven wrong, however, but I'd prefer it if someone other than Joannie were to beat Mao.

 

[ynkgraceonice]

There may be another reason that Joannie cannot beat Mao anyway.

* Technical Specialist: Ms. Olga Markova (Russia)
* Refree: Ms. Junko Hiramatsu (Japan)

Poor Joannie

 

[so_proud]

I bet if the referee was Korean and Yu-Na was competing in TEB, we wouldn't be hearing a peep from you.

I should agree with you, but from somewhat different perspective. For Yuna, I basically have not paid much attention to who would be in the techinical panel (i.e., referee, techinical specialist, assistant TS, technical controller).

 

[R.D.]

And Kinga, yes, I think Mao is that untouchable. Like chuckm, I think Joannie can beat Mao, but that is a very slim possibility. I don't mind being proven wrong, however....

Agreed.

 

[enlight78]

mens
Kozuka 233.44
Patrick 229.67
Brian 229.12
Bradley 217.66

women
mao 191.89
joannie 186.54(lower PCs)
caroline 166.51

 

[Bennett]

There may be another reason that Joannie cannot beat Mao anyway.

* Technical Specialist: Ms. Olga Markova (Russia)
* Refree: Ms. Junko Hiramatsu (Japan)

I don't know about her judging but just wanted to say that Ms. Hiramatsu is such a sweet lady and I like her a lot Sorry for nonesense!

 

[cera]

mens
Kozuka 233.44
Patrick 229.67
Brian 229.12
Bradley 217.66

women
mao 191.89
joannie 186.54(lower PCs)
caroline 166.51

wow! Now this is cool...

I don't suppose you can do a breakdown for us to see how u arrived at such figures...it'll b fun...

 

[berrycute]

I hope it's not to late for me!

MEN
1. Patrick Chan
2. Brian Joubert
3. Takahiko Kozuka

LADIES
1. Mao Asada
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Elene Gedevanishvili

PAIRS
1. Savchenko and Szokolwy
2. Mukhortova and Trankov
3. Duhamel and Buntin

DANCE
1. Delobel and Schoenfelder
2. Faiella and Scali
3. Kerr and Kerr

 

[bekalc]

For some reason I think Joannie's going to win the ladies...

 

[GiuliaPlum]

For some reason I think Joannie's going to win the ladies...

After the Sp, I think so too. And that's an other schock. Four events, four schocks. I would be a bit sorry for Mao, I must say.

 

[berrycute]

For some reason I think Joannie's going to win the ladies...

She could, it is entirely possible! But Mao is a strong LP skater. It will still be tough. Meanwhile, I predicted Elene for the bronze. That's a big cross wrong for me.