The Ladies is the Hunger Games.
When you look at the PB’s on the ISU Bios, Adelina Sotnikova is only 2 points ahead of her mini-me. But, Evgenia Medvedeva’s were set at the GP Final a few weeks ago, whereas Sotnikova’s were set at the Olympics nearly 2 years ago.
When you go to the SB’s, Adelina’s is 20.7 points lower than her PB, but it still puts her in 6th place, between Lipnitskaia and Tsurskaya. HOWEVER, this was from the Mordovian Ornament, which we all accept that everybody was overscored at. Her next highest score from this season is 185.11 at the Cup of Russia, which puts her down in 11th, 1 point behind Maria Sotskova and 8 points ahead of Maria Artemieva.
Anna Pogorilaya has the 3rd highest PB of the field, and it was set this season. BUT, it was also from the Mordovian Ornament Her next highest score from this season is 184.16 at the Cup of China. This also puts her in the gap between the 2 Maria’s. But because Anna is 2 points behind Sotskova and 7 points ahead of Artemieva, it would be behind Sotnikova.
I absolutely love Anna. And I would like nothing more than to see her on the podium. But, I don’t think she has had a competition this season where she has not had at least one big fall, but more often plural.
Consequently, much as it pains me to put her outside the Top 10, I do believe that she is more likely to finish there than she is to finish in the Top 6.
For Adelina, I am going to give her the benefit of the doubt. Although I am pushing her down the order, I am not pushing her down quite as far as Anna. Sotskova is at the back of a group of 3 skaters (Leonova and Fedichkina are the others) whose PB’s are covered by less than half a point. So, I am prepared to put Adelina ahead of these 3 skaters.
I am happy enough to keep Lipnitskaia, Tsurskaya and Sakhanovich in their PB order. Although Julia and Sima have not been doing as well as expected this season, and their PB’s both date back to 2014, I believe that the chance to get assigned to the big championships might be the incentive they need to put on a good performance.
The problem for me is 2nd and 3rd. I really do not know what to do!
Liza has won 3 Senior B’s, finished 2nd at Skate Canada, and finished 3rd at the Japan Open. Elena won the Cup of Russia, and finished third at the Cup of China and the GP Final.
BUT, Elena’s PB from the Cup of Russia is a full 10 points higher than Liza’s SB from the Golden Spin. And out of her 3 competitions, Elena’s scores have broken the 200 mark twice. With Liza, it only happened once out of 6 competitions. Admittedly, 1 of those competitions only had a FS (the Japan Open), while another only had an SP (the TEB). But, that still leaves 1 out of 4 (25%), as opposed to 2 out of 3 (66.666%).
Plus, I don’t actually like either of Liza’s programmes for this season. With Elena, it is just the FS that I don’t like, and that is largely down to the monologes.
So, I am putting Elena into second. I’m sorry Liza. I hope you prove me wrong.
When I came to the Men, I was delighted to find that Voronov was top of the ISU PB lists! Yes, they was from 2014, and Pitkeev is breathing down his neck, but any excuse to put one of the older guys on top and I’ll take it!
So, I kept the Top 2 in their PB position.
Then came the big decision. What to do with Kolyada, Dmitriev Jr. and Kovtun? The PB’s for all three of them are covered by just over half a point.
Kovtun’s PB dates back to 2014 Worlds. His SB is a full 10 pints lower at 236.38, but comes from the Mordovian Ornament (which he won). His next highest score is a further 24 points back at 212.63, from when he finished 10th out of 12 at the NHK Trophy. His finished second at his other competition, but that was the TEB where there was only an SP.
So, in other words, there is no way I am moving him up any places. In fact, I am going to move him down to where his NHK score would fit in. Believe it or not, that is 13th!!!
With Mikhail Kolyada and Artur Dmitriev Jr., the PB’s on their ISU Bios were both scored within the past 2 months. So I went to their other PB’s. Artur scored 251.44 at the Volvo Open last month, so that would put him ahead. HOWEVER, at Nationals, Mikhail has the better score, 227.32 at 2013 Junior Nationals, compared to 220.29 at 2011 Senior Nationals for Artur.
In the end, I decided to go with Artur because of the Volvo Open score.
Which brings us to Konstantin Menshov. I would have loved to put Kostya higher. Hey, I would have loved to put him on the podium! But, his PB is a full 10 points behind that group of 3 guys in front of him. And, like Voronov’s, it is from 2014. But, Menshov’s SB is 4 points lower than his PB, and keeps him in the same position. So, I reluctantly left him behind the (now trimmed) group.
So, who to put as my 6th place alternate. This was actually one of the easier decisions. Alexander Petrov and Moris Kvitelashvili have PB’s that are similar. Alexander’s is from 2014, whereas Moris’ is from this season. But, Moris’ is the Mordovian Ornament, and his other scores this season have been no-where near as high. His second highest score is a full 8 points lower than Alexander’s SB, which came at Skate Canada.
HOWEVER, Aliev, Samarin, Shulepov and Gorshkov all have PB’s from this season that are higher than the scores I am considering for both Petrov and Kvitelashvili. So, I moved all of them ahead, making Aliev my 6th place alternate.
I didn’t make any changes to the rest, as I wanted to get onto Pairs.
When I did get to pairs, I spotted something interesting. Apart from Volosozhar / Trankov and the three new couples that do not have ISU Bios, EVERYBODY set their ISU PB’s this season.
Therein lay the problem. It made it next to impossible to make any changes to the order!
After seeing their routines at the Nebelhorn, there is no way I am putting Volosozhar and Trankov anywhere but the top! And I was happy with the order for pretty much everybody else.
The only couple that moved from their PB position was Natalja Zabijako / Alexander Enbert. For the simple reason that the PB on their ISU Bio (196.22) was set at the Mordovian Ornament. Their next best score, from the Cup of Russia, was 180.56. Using this score dropped them down to 6th position, behind Kristina Astakhova / Alexei Rogonov and Vera Bazarova / Andrei Deputat. Which seems about right.
In Dance, I was happy enough with the PB order on the most part. In fact, the only changing I did was towards the bottom end of the field.
There are 2 new couples in Dance that do not have ISU Bios. However, I have found a profile for one of them (
Angelica Kanivets / Alexei Chizhov ) on Stats On Ice. But, their PB on there was very low – only 83.49 points from when they finished last at last year’s Nationals.
I couldn’t find any info on the other couple. So, I put them at the bottom, below Kanivets / Chizhov.
Can’t wait to watch the competitions
TOMORROW.
Caroliza_fan
RUSSIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ladies
1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA, RUS
2. Elena RADIONOVA, RUS
3. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, RUS
4. Julia LIPNITSKAIA, RUS
5. Polina TSURSKAYA, RUS
6. Serafima SAKHANOVICH, RUS
Just for fun
7. Adelina SOTNIKOVA, RUS
8. Alena LEONOVA, RUS
9. Alisa FEDICHKINA, RUS
10. Maria SOTSKOVA, RUS
11. Anna POGORILAYA, RUS
12. Maria ARTEMIEVA, RUS
13. Diana PERVUSHKINA, RUS
14. Ekaterina BAYANOVA, RUS
15. Maria PEREDEROVA, RUS
16. Alina KARAVAEVA, RUS
17. Evgenia IVANKOVA, RUS
18. Alexandra SAYUTINA, RUS
Men
1. Sergei VORONOV, RUS
2. Adian PITKEEV, RUS
3. Artur DMITRIEV, RUS
4. Mikhail KOLYADA, RUS
5. Konstantin MENSHOV, RUS
6. Dmitri ALIEV, RUS
Just for fun
7. Alexander SAMARIN, RUS
8. Anton SHULEPOV, RUS
9. Gordei GORSHKOV, RUS
10. Alexander PETROV, RUS
11. Moris KVITELASHVILI, RUS
12. Maxim KOVTUN, RUS
13. Artem LEZHEEV, RUS
14. Andrei LAZUKIN, RUS
15. Vladislav TARASENKO, RUS
16. Evgeni VLASOV, RUS
17. Dmitry BUSHLANOV, RUS
18. Egor MURASHOV, RUS
Pairs
1. Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV, RUS
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV, RUS
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV, RUS
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV, RUS
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT, RUS
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Alexander ENBERT, RUS
Just for fun
7. Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV, RUS
8. Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV, RUS
9. Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Stepan KOROTKOV, RUS
10. Alexandra SHEVCHENKO / Ivan BICH, RUS
11. Sofia BIRYUKOVA / Andrei FILONOV, RUS
12. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN, RUS
Ice Dance
1. Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN, RUS
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV, RUS
3. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV, RUS
4. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN, RUS
5. Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV, RUS
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO, RUS
Just for fun
7. Ludmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV, RUS
8. Anastasia SAFRONOVA / Ilia ZIMIN, RUS
9. Angelica KANIVETS / Alexei CHIZHOV, RUS
10. Margarita SHESTAKOVA / Savely UGRIUMOV, RUS
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). And as soon as I saw the list of withdrawals, that took over, and I never bothered looking at any other pages.
