Senior Pairs Free Skate

[dorispulaski]

Well, that's possible. There are great juniors in the Russian program coming up every year. The third place team is always at risk of not making worlds in the following year.

 

[DianaSelene]

B/L should worry about their spot first. Maybe they won't even get to be out of the top 10 in the 2014 Olympics. I predict they will not even make World next year.

What influenced you to such a conclusion that makes no sense. That they might not make it to worlds next year is not likely but possible if suddenly another Russian pair becomes better than them. However, at Vancouver they were 11th and didn't skate so well. If they go to next olympics, they will definitely be higher than 11th obviously. D/C should worry more because usually 3rd Russian pair is still better than 1st American pair and will definitely be ranked higher at worlds if both go clean.

 

[DianaSelene]

Well, that's possible. There are great juniors in the Russian program coming up every year. The third place team is always at risk of not making worlds in the following year.

Definitely. G/E, I/M, S/K. And although Davankova/Deputat will not be able to go anywhere until after the olympics, they look very promising.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Barazova/Larionov's PCS at Europeans, LP: 63.09
Denney/Coughlin PCS at NATIONALS, LP: 63.49

So even with National judging, they barely, barely sneak ahead. We can assume that drops by about five points. So now they have 58.49. If they skate clean at Worlds. Meanwhile, it's likely that B/L's PCS will increase - Worlds tend to increase the PCS, being the defacto climax of the season (see Chan's LP PCS last season).

Barazova/Larionov's Base Value at Europeans, LP: 55.43 (one UR'ed 2A, one level one element)
Denney/Coughlin Base Value at NATIONALS, LP: 53.88 (no URs, one level one element)

So Bazarova/Larionov win on base value too, with one error.

D/R's tougher. I think they would have a slight benefit on PCS, due to familiarity. As we saw at TEB, a 60+ base value can take a lot of hits. So it'll be up to GOEs, and I don't think a clean D/C will make up six+ points here compared to a clean D/R.

If everyone's clean, it'll be something like

1/2. S/S and V/T
3/4. P/T and K/S
5/6/7. Z/Z, B/L, D/R
8/9/10. T/T, B/H, and D/C

Of course, likelihood of certain teams going clean is greater than others (if T/T go clean, I'll eat my hat).

 

[tulosai]

^^^

This. Thank you. You explain what I was trying to much better than me.

 

[FlattFan]

What influenced you to such a conclusion that makes no sense. That they might not make it to worlds next year is not likely but possible if suddenly another Russian pair becomes better than them. However, at Vancouver they were 11th and didn't skate so well. If they go to next olympics, they will definitely be higher than 11th obviously. D/C should worry more because usually 3rd Russian pair is still better than 1st American pair and will definitely be ranked higher at worlds if both go clean.

You misread me. I replied to your assertion that B/L will not be out of the top 10 unless injury. They should worry about their spot first. And by 2014, even if they want to place outside of the top 10, they wouldn't even get that chance. They will be staying home injured or not. D/C should worry about what to do for fun in Sochi. They will definitely get that Olympics experience. Sadly, you can't say the same about B/L.

 

[tulosai]

You misread me. I replied to your assertion that B/L will not be out of the top 10 unless injury. They should worry about their spot first. And by 2014, even if they want to place outside of the top 10, they wouldn't even get that chance. They will be staying home injured or not. D/C should worry about what to do for fun in Sochi. They will definitely get that Olympics experience. Sadly, you can't say the same about B/L.

You and I have drastically different ideas about pairs which is ok There are a lot of talented Russian pairs right now so I can't disagree that B/L might be left home. However it won't be because they split as a pair. Likely as not D/C won't even still be together in Sochi. I also don't share your view that they are a lock for the team even if they are still together. They are the best the US currently has but M/B could easly pass them by then (and I think they will) and there are other hungry pairs teams below those two. Further I do think B/L at least for now have firmly established themselves as Russia's number 3 team and Russia does care about things other than just nationals results. We'll see in two years

 

[Nadine]

I love both of those New England teams, and particularly love that they are different from the other teams, probably because they are not using the same coaches and choreographers that teams have been using for years.

Nadine, I'm thinking D&S could do a quad twist or a quad salchow throw to get more base value, given the huge height & distance they get on twists and throws. And they need to do the jumps, rather than pop them.

Both Takahashi / Tran and Sui / Han get credit for big tricks even when their jumps are no good; Pang & Tong often did not land their side by side jumps well. I think the US has to just get Donlan and Speroff out there.

And improving speed would be a good thing, always, although they looked quite fast on TV.

USFS needs to send them to a round of Senior B's so that they get some international credit. I don't think I've ever heard Peter Carruthers go crazy about a lower placed team as much as he did about Donlan & Speroff.

Thanks, dorispulaski, for your insightful comments (though we may not see eye-to-eye on certain things I acknowledge & respect your indepth skating knowledge).

Hmmm, yes, I like the thought of that quad twist you suggested, it brings to mind G&G, whom performed it at both the 1987 World Championships & 1987 European Championships. Though it didn't help them much (i.e. wasn't acknowledged), it would definitely help D&S in this day & age, likewise the 4S, which is their best throw jump. Still, one thing at a time, doing too much and being too ambitious will lead to disaster imho. Right now I do like & acknowledge the fact that they have improved their speed from last year to this year, as well as their lifts & positions. And in order to make up for the fact that they are not good consistent jumpers I say add the quad twist this year, then when that's accomplished, add the 4S for the Olympic Year. Jmho.

Btw, I didn't know all that info. about the other pairs you mentioned, it just gets too confusing, and also I'm not a fan of all the pairs teams, so I don't watch obsessively as I do the mens and ladies. Seriously, I didn't even watch the 2010 Olympic Pairs, let alone Worlds & Europeans every year. I stopped watching after Abitbol & Bernadis retired in 2002. Now I only watch sporadically, like US Nationals, so I cannot engage in conversations with others when they bring up abbreviations of teams I don't even know exist, let alone know their names. :scratch:

To me the beauty is gone from Pairs, which ended with G&G really, though I did watch their other pairs teams up until 2002. Now it's all jumps, ugly positions, no stretch, no finesse, no "two shall skate as one", throwing the lady like a sack of potatoes, et al. :disapp: This is why I like Donlan & Speroff, they bring back for me the beauty of pairs skating, though they really do need the jumps.

Anyhow, I've talked long enough, and despite what I said earlier I also do enjoy power in skating, which is what Denney & Coughlin have, and I wish them all the luck in the world.

ps: and though I like to dream, I'm also a realist, and am not expecting an Olympic Champion nor an Olympic Medalist in Pairs from America anytime soon, but just maybe just maybe if the stars are aligned just so, and fairy dust is blowing in the air, just maybe a World Medal might be possible one day. One can hope, and dream... In the meantime I've been having a blast watching the awards ceremony on IN; the look & joy on Gretchen's face is without words, likewise her partner Andrew. ^)

 

[icebeauty]

You and I have drastically different ideas about pairs which is ok There are a lot of talented Russian pairs right now so I can't disagree that B/L might be left home. However it won't be because they split as a pair. Likely as not D/C won't even still be together in Sochi. I also don't share your view that they are a lock for the team even if they are still together. They are the best the US currently has but M/B could easly pass them by then (and I think they will) and there are other hungry pairs teams below those two. Further I do think B/L at least for now have firmly established themselves as Russia's number 3 team and Russia does care about things other than just nationals results. We'll see in two years

I agree. M/B will pass D/C. This is why I'm excited about worlds for pairs (aside fromt eh battle for the podium with S/S and V/T and kind of K/S). I want to know how the international judges view M/B. Yes they have easier elements/lower levels right now, but the potential they have makes where they end up placing (even if it's low) much more intriguing than D/C's final placement.

 

[Ryan O]

Was hoping that Marley & Brubaker would win, but 2nd place is still great for them in only their 2nd year together and the important thing is that they can go to Worlds now. If Rockne hadn't had those uncharacteristic mistakes on the jumps they probably would have finished 1st.

They have the potential to climb up higher next year and surpass D&C, I agree.

 

[Jammers]

The other partner in that team was part of the Jr. World Champ, national champ twice. D/C did not almost got beat. They won by a large margin. Even if Rockne didn't screw up his two jumping passes, it still would be a close one since all of their elements are inferior. It wasn't like Rockne and Mary Beth had better lutz twist, better DS, better pair spins, better SBS spins.

I don't think D/C can improve further from the LP they just put out. Now they need to keep the speed and the magic and the jumps and throws. I can see them only behind V/T, S/S, K/S. If they skate like that, they will handily beat the Canadians and even B/L if B messes up her jumps.

D/C only beat Rockne and Mary Beth by 3 points even with Rockne's two big mistakes. That is not a large margin. A clean program and they win.

 

[FlattFan]

D/C only beat Rockne and Mary Beth by 3 points even with Rockne's two big mistakes. That is not a large margin. A clean program and they win.

I meant in the LP. I didn't watch the SP.
The other factor to consider is competing under pressure. Rockne and MB had a huge lead going in. They can afford a big mistake and a small one, and they blew it.
Until they can improve their nerve, if D/C skate clean, Rockne and MB will be second.

 

[mskater93]

MB and Rockne have been skating together less than 2 years and that's how long MB has been skating pairs. They will improve.

 

[Ryan O]

As I expected, Marley/Brubaker fell off a bit once they got away from the cutesy "Singin' in the Rain" short program that showed off Marley so well. There's one part of their long program where they just hold each other, and it was just so painfully forced. Marley just looks/is too young and immature to have any sort of believable chemistry with him.

I agree that a romantic chemistry between them will be awkward, but that's only to be expected when they are a decade apart in age. Mary is only 16 and Rockne is 25. I suspect they (particularly Rockne) are uncomfortable trying to look too romantic on the ice because in our society most people wouldn't approve of a romantic relationship in real life between a 16 year old and a 25 year old and therefore this translates onto the ice. Perhaps in a couple of years when she turns 18 they will become more comfortable with more romantic programs.

In the meantime, they do have a chemistry together - it's just more of a friendship or brother/sister chemistry vs. a romantic one. They get along well and look happy and supportive of each other.

 

[DianaSelene]

You misread me. I replied to your assertion that B/L will not be out of the top 10 unless injury. They should worry about their spot first. And by 2014, even if they want to place outside of the top 10, they wouldn't even get that chance. They will be staying home injured or not. D/C should worry about what to do for fun in Sochi. They will definitely get that Olympics experience. Sadly, you can't say the same about B/L.

So let's say that they give up their spot and someone else goes... What's the difference? Then that means there is an even better 3rd couple than B/L because right now they are pretty good. So any Russian that goes in that 3rd spot will still compete with D/C and probably beat them (especially if you consider that they have to surpass B/L who got 5th and almost 4th at last year's worlds). It would look even worse for D/C. Plus, why are you so positive that D/C will be able to go to Sochi? Another American pair could be better?

 

[Nadine]

Lol talk about awkwardnes I re-watched the Pairs again on IN the other day and noticed not only the commentator, but also skating pair team member Peter Biver of Rita Fehr & Peter Biver was very uncomfortable. When it came time to introduce their ages, the commentator (not Peter Carruthers btw) just sort of mumbled his age of 35, very embarrassed-like, whereas she is 15.

And that awkwardness continued on during the skate by Peter Biver, he wouldn't even look at her, especially during their pair spin where he's holding her & has his head turned all the way to the other side while she's staring straight at him, tres embarrassing. : I understand him not wanting to provide food for fodder, being that she's underage, and he's old enough to be her father, but the whole thing was rather comical. Which is sad really, I DO like this pair, and can see how much heart & soul they put into their skating. They honestly were just delighted to be there, which warmed my heart. And on that note I would love to see them come back next year, they just need to do what Peter Carruthers said during the broadcast, work on their basics, and everything else will flow.

Funny thing Rita Fehr looks older than 15 imho (more like 18), whereas Mary Beth Marley looks younger than 16 (more like a 12/13 dressed up to look older), whereas their respective partners look their age. Therefore, no chemistry. But then again I think "chemistry" gets thrown around a lot, I can count on one hand pairs that actually do exude chemistry on ice, and for the United States I would say Donlan & Speroff and Denney & Coughlin, but they both still have a long way to go to attain the astronomical heights of G&G, let alone Shen & Zhao. Jmho. ^)

By the way, I was watching old videos of Donlan & Speroff to see if it would be possible to add a 4twist or a 4S to their repertoire, and theoretically, yes, it should be possible, especially seeing as how tiny Gretchen Donlan is, seriously she was the tiniest lady pairs' skater standing on the podium this past weekend, and by that I mean not only height (only Mary Beth is shorter than her), but also in terms of build/weight; she's built like a fey fairy with long legs & small bones. Just think of Katia Gordeeva, and there you have it, like twins; Katia too was noted for her slightness of build & balletic figure. Anyhow, like Katia, I'm hoping Gretchen's similar build will help Andrew to throw her up into the air for a 4twist (just like Sergei did with Katia), as well as possibly a 4S.

 

[Pikachuusb]

My thoughts: We thought D/C did a good job to win, but we dont care for them at all. I also noticed her hair was down in the LP, once I got past that green eyeshadow & orange tan. I thought Caydee had a white bandage on her back until I realised it was her "flesh toned" fabric on her dress. LOL I will give them that they went after their elements, but the positions & line, etc are less than desirable

Im sad that Caitlin was there without a partner still. Im glad she is still training

Sad that Rockne had an uncharacteristic error. I think he was probably thinking what the rest of us were, "will Mary Beth fall?" and he lost his concentration and fell. Hell, even the commentators said the same as I when it happened. Thankfully they still got the silver. They were only 3 points back, so close yet so far. Hopefully next year they will win.

Sad for Amanda & Mark, they soo could have done it, but errors entered and that window closed. I enjoy thier programs. I hope they continue to skate.

 

[sweetskates1]

I love Caitlin's beauty and grace. I truly hope she finds the perfect complementing partner.

Marley/Brubaker= my FAVORITE pairs team on the scene, I have faith in them getting on the podium at World's!!

 

[Nadine]

I do feel sorry for Caitlin, just as I do in Emily Samuelson's case, but for the latter I wonder if it was because as speculated about weight? If so, it's her own fault (i.e. Samuelson). Jmho.