The question remains, though -- suppose the ISU really does want to elevate the non-jump side and give the all-rounders a chance to out-GOAT the jump specialists. What rule changes would accomplish that?
Well, let's see.
We're mainly talking about the effect of quads in the senior men's event. The calculations would be different in other events where it's less likely for anyone to come close to maxing out on jump content.
Let's focus on the free skate, although if we assume everyone skates their best we can assume that a great jumper with the most difficult quads will also have an advantage in the short program, or at least not much of a disadvantage against a good jumper with great everything else.
Under this year's rules, we see the highest base value successfully achieved so far (pretty darn close to the max possible base value without adding quints) is 82.51 just for jump base value.
Maximum +5 GOE on all jump elements could add up to half that value again for the jumps.
The maximum base value achievable in TES for other five free skate elements would be 3.00 for the choreo sequence, 3.90 for level 4 step sequence, 3.50 + 3.50 for level 4 CCoSp and FCCoSp as the combo spin and flying spin respectively, and 3.20 for level 4 change-foot spin in one position (with or without flying entry), or a total of 17.1 in base value.
Let's take an extreme case scenario for the non-strong points of our respective jump expert and spin/sequence expert.
Suppose the jumper can only earn level 1 on his step sequence (1.80) and each of his spins, and he opts for the slightly easier spin layout of CCoSp1 (2.00), FCSp1 (1.90), and CSSp1 (1.90), or a total 3.80 for spin base value. Base value of the choreo sequence is 3.00 regardless. Let's assume with average of 0 GOE, so no extra points there.
Our jumper expert would therefore have 8.80 for non-jump elements, while perfect scores on jumps and steps could earn 17.1 base value plus up to 9.55 in GOE for straight +5s on every element, for a total of 26.65 for perfect spins and sequences.
There is no way to increase the contribution to TES from these elements beyond 26.65 by adding more difficulty or quality. The current rules do not offer any more points for these elements.
So the expert jumper with low-value, mediocre quality spins and sequences would be 26.65 - 8.80 = 17.85 points behind the perfect spin/steps skater on those elements.
How much of an advantage does he have on jumps?
Well, that depends what kind of jumps the other-elements expert is attempting.
Let's say one each of 4Lz, 4T, and 4S, with triples otherwise and similar layout to the jump expert. I.e., a
very good jumper, but not outstanding. So much closer to the jump expert on difficulty than the jump expert came to him on non-jumps.
Changing the values of the quad expert's other quads to triples
4A 12.5 vs. 3A 8.0
4Lz 11.5 vs. 5.9
4F 11.00 vs. 3F 5.3
4Lo 10.5 vs. 3Lo 4.9
45.5 for those four quads alone vs. 21.11 for the comparable triples, or a difference of 24.4 base value. And if the GOEs are comparable, an additional loss of added value prorated to the loss of base value.
So 3 vs. 7 quads can mean a difference of 20-30 TES points on jumps, with an advantage of less than 20 points on non-jump elements ASSUMING the quadmaster is only doing easy spins and steps with just-adequate quality. That
could be just a few points the just-very-good jumper is behind on TES, to be made up on PCS.
If the jumper is doing level 2 and 3 spins and sequences with decent quality, that lessens the other guy's advantage on non-jump elements and widens the jumper's advantage on total TES.
Can our just-good jumper catch the amazing jumper on PCS?
For an extreme case scenario, imagine the good jump with amazing everything else earns straight 10.0s on every component from every judge. That gives a total PCS of 100.00. Under the current rules, that's the maximum PCS for a men's free skate.
What kind of PCS is our amazing jumper likely to earn?
Well, if he has the speed and control to land all those quads with positive GOE, he does have solid Skating Skills. And a confident, flawlessly skated program is likely to earn high Presentation marks as well. Maybe the performance wasn't very musical and the program wasn't very complex. So maybe we're looking at a mixture of 8s and 7s for PCS, let's say a total of 80.0 PCS.
Can a 20-point difference in PCS close the gap?
Sure, if the non-jumper did have a few good quads and perfect everything else, and the quadmaster was just mediocre on other elements and Composition, just verging into "very good" on Skating Skills and that day's Performance.
But chances are the everything-elser was not
perfect on everything else (i.e., more +3s and +4s than +5s, and PCS maybe all in the 9s but few if any 10s), and that the quadmaster's spin and step levels were better than level 1 and GOEs better than 0, and his choreography might have been pretty decent choreography after all.
So 7 quads will beat 3 quads almost every time.
If we have an amazing skater with amazing spins and steps and skating skills and choreography and performance quality, but no jumps harder than a 3A, he has no chance. Probably not even against 3 quads.
Mistakes on either side will of course change the calculations further.
So do we want to balance out the rewards for excellence in skating, excellence in steps and unlisted moves, excellence in spins, and/or excellence in composition and performance so that those who really are far above the rest of the field in any or all of those areas can be adequately rewarded the same way that a jumper far ahead of the rest of the field can currently rack up a huge advantage just from base values and +GOEs on his best elements?
Removing one jump pass will lessen the jumper's advantage in that area.
Should it be possible for really difficult spins or steps to earn base values commensurate at least with the easier triple jumps, with GOEs based on those higher base values?
Or should an expert spinner have the opportunity to replace a jump slot that would have gone to a double axel or low-value triple, or to a riskier harder jump with likely negative GOE, with a fourth spin to showcase their strengths instead? (This option would probably be more relevant in the women's discipline, but some men who aren't top medal contenders based on jumps but may be excellent spinners might still benefit from this kind of flexibility.)
If a strong performance from a strong-but-not-amazing skater with amazing jumps will probably not be deserve >10 let alone >20 points lower than the amazing everything-elser with good quality but just pretty-good difficulty on jumps, would we want to widen the obvious gap on PCS?
How?
Change how judges are trained to evaluate each component completely separate from the difficulty of the elements?
Change the range of scores used in elite competitions so that we see lower components across the board from everyone aside from those few exceptional skaters who are truly excellent in all criteria of a given component? (In which case, if we start seeing lots of 7s for skaters who are among the top 20 in the world, lots of 6s and not-infrequent 5s for other Grand-Prix worthy skaters, what would that do scoring for skaters at levels that fans rarely see but sometimes compete against these skaters at domestic and senior B events?)
Or change the factoring so that the difference between straight 9.5s vs. straight 9s, for example, is worth more than the value of one quad?