So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

[R.D.]

You make it sound like the woman went out of her way to injure herself!!! Which I don't think is the case with Michelle...

Yeah, I agree. May not have been the "best" way to word it (I just said "got herself injured", hello? If I said "WENT AND got herself injured," it would have been different) but it means the same thing.

 

[Tonichelle]

Yeah, I agree. May not have been the "best" way to word it (I just said "got herself injured", hello? If I said "WENT AND got herself injured," it would have been different) but it means the same thing.

perhaps, but the more clear you are, the better in a message board situation... without voice inflection and facial/hand expression one can't totally get a feel for what you're saying unless you're absolutely clear in what you mean...

 

[Mathman]

I guess it's just me, but I have never thought that Sasha acts like a diva or an ice princess or anything of that sort. I do think she tries to "think positively" and to psyche himself up by telling herself, yes, I can do this, I'm a great skater, I can win. While at the same time confronting the same twinges of self-doubt that everyone wrestles with.

As Red Dog says, all skaters fall. At the Olympics, yes, Sasha made two bad mistakes, but the number of fully skated, clean performances by all competitors in Torino, was zero. I hope Sasha stays in and wins the world championship next year. (Mao can wait, LOL.)

Michelle is blessed with a warmth of personality and an inner glow that she is able to communicate both through her skating and person-to-person.

 

[Spun Silver]

I guess it's just me, but I have never thought that Sasha acts like a diva or an ice princess or anything of that sort. I do think she tries to "think positively" and to psyche himself up by telling herself, yes, I can do this, I'm a great skater, I can win. While at the same time confronting the same twinges of self-doubt that everyone wrestles with.

As Red Dog says, all skaters fall. At the Olympics, yes, Sasha made two bad mistakes, but the number of fully skated, clean performances by all competitors in Torino, was zero. I hope Sasha stays in and wins the world championship next year. (Mao can wait, LOL.)

Michelle is blessed with a warmth of personality and an inner glow that she is able to communicate both through her skating and person-to-person.

Very nice post! Personally I don't understand the view that Sasha is a diva, ice princess, etc. off-ice or on (and it's been said of both her skating and her "real" personality). And honestly, I don't take the off-ice stuff very seriously or feel any need to give it much thought, because it's impossible to tell with any athlete or performer what is real and what is packaged by p.r. people for media.

I see no reason not to think she's a nice person (although not the type of personality that I'm especially drawn to) and I respect her privacy. But really I am just amazed by her exquisite skating, hope she continues to use this gift, feel compassion for her in her disappointments, and wish her well on a personal level.

 

[Jaana]

I think it depends on what country you are from. I bet it would mean more to Nobunari Oda, for instance, to win Japanese Nationals than to win the Eric Bompard Trophee or the Golden Spin of Zagreb or Four Continents.

About placement at Worlds, again, I bet he would be prouder to be Japanese champion than to place 5th rather than 8th at Worlds.

A placement one or two does not matter in Nationals, if both skaters (plus maybe even a third one) will be able to go to Worlds. A good result at Worlds is a more prestigious one, generally speaking.

In lots of cases with just one representative at Worlds, I would say that a placement among top ten at Worlds is a lot better achievement than to win the Nationals. There are National champions which may not even qualify for the short programme at Worlds competitíon....

Oda´s placement as fourth in 2006 Worlds where the best skaters from ALL countries (except Plushenko) were competing, was a great achievement for his first Worlds.

 

[Okami]

To get back on the topic...

USA

Ladies: If Sasha stays for the season, I believe she'll be the favourite. If not, Kimmie. Katie and Emily will be the underdogs.

Men: Unless Johnny improves his consistency, Evan will be the favourite.

Japan:

Ladies: Mao - the favourite, Fumie - the underdog, Yukari & Miki - the blackhorses.

Men: Nobunari & Daisuke will be the favourites, with Takahiko Kozuka as underdog.

Canada:

Ladies: Rochette and Leung, respectively.

Men: Sandhu had slight edge at Worlds, but I believe Buttle will keep the status of the favourite, unless the GP shows otherwise.

About placement at Worlds, again, I bet he would be prouder to be Japanese champion than to place 5th rather than 8th at Worlds.

I think the international results do matter for him, because they show how well one can perform under the pressure and pitched against the best. What's more, high international placement guarantees more recognition. I believe he wanted to grab a medal for Japan. When he ended up just a few points short of bronze, he said he "would not be able to return to Japan with a smile on his face", because his fellow countrymen were counting on him to bring home silver or bronze.

IMHO the National title doesn't have quite as much prestige, if only because there are many national champions who are poorly known because of their unability to place high at Worlds or Olympics. Of course, in the majority of the countries the national champion title is very much desired, as it is the ticket to the international competitions. In Japan, however, what matters the most is not the title itself, but the amount of points gathered during the season.

 

[antmanb]

If you are objecting to something I said, I don't understand.
- Red Dog seemed to say that SC only got on the podium because of COP.
- I answered that most fans seem to think COP is better than 6.0 so SC being on the podium must actually mean she's performed better.
- Antman disputed my statement about "most" fans' preference for COP.
- I acknowledged that I had not included either MK fans or discussions of COP/6.0 prior to this year in my generalization.

If I understand you, you are not disputing my main point re Sasha earning her podium placements under COP (?) but the side point that MK hasn't thrived under COP. Isn't that just a historical fact - that her triumphs came under 6.0 and at best we have little evidence on her performance under COP?

I do hear you about not liking COP but do you think most fans would agree with you or not? I'm really curious since, like I said, the threads I've read have been very strongly pro-COP (of course with many dissenting voices - it's not the USSR).

I'm with Kwanford wife on the CoP in that it looks to bean count elements far too much and i'm much more in favour of the program being the whole rather than the sum of its parts. I think there are such serious flaws in the CoP at the moment that i just don't understand why so much money has been wasted to implement a system that is at least as flawed as the one it replaced, and ultimately the only thing its given us is clear examples of cheating/incompetant judging but nothing has been done about it...so i presonally conclude the ISU flushed millions of Euros down the pan for a judging system that is no better than the last and that produced IMO, one of the worst skated Olympics of all time.

Ant

 

[MKFSfan]

That's basically my issue with COP. Yes, I see that under 6.0 there were more ways to "rob" skaters, but I liked that a skater was deducted for what they did not do, and encouraged to be more original. COP sets guidelines for a skater to follow, much like the SP did under 6.0, so we see a lot of the same things. Skaters use same spins and spirals for each program, sometimes repeating same positions over and over in spins to got the high levels. I guess it is good that the system awards what is done, but as people have mentioned, it doesn't seem fair that a quadless program, with a fall, could potentially beat a program with 2 quads based on spins. I think if a skater falls, the jump does not get points, much like under 6.0 and I think repeating a jump not in combo, which under 6.0 was a violation of the Zyack rule, should not just be oh, well, no points for the 3rd combo.

I don't know...seems to be pluses and minuses about each systen, but I believe under 6.0 we saw more "free programs" and now they are just extensions of short programs, if that makes sense.

Michelle probably DID overdo getting ready for COP too late in the game which resulted in injury, but she has been rumored to be dealing with hip/back pain since 2004, so it's not ALL because of COP. Probably more due to trying for a 3sal/3loop, which has been rumored to be her 3/3 of choice in practices, anyway.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I guess it's just me, but I have never thought that Sasha acts like a diva or an ice princess or anything of that sort.

Mathman, you've led a sheltered life.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm with Kwanford wife on the CoP in that it looks to bean count elements far too much and i'm much more in favour of the program being the whole rather than the sum of its parts. I think there are such serious flaws in the CoP at the moment that i just don't understand why so much money has been wasted to implement a system that is at least as flawed as the one it replaced, and ultimately the only thing its given us is clear examples of cheating/incompetant judging but nothing has been done about it...so i presonally conclude the ISU flushed millions of Euros down the pan for a judging system that is no better than the last and that produced IMO, one of the worst skated Olympics of all time. Ant

Good post Ant. - There should be a way to get the skaters skating more freely than in this tight 'must do' kind of way. Trouble with the Whole Package, though, was that it was so easy to cheat, collude, make deals, etc. when a competition was close.

And the CoP has its way of cheating with these random GoE scores and deal making with the Caller who definitely can influence an outcome. I will admit that collusion is tougher now.

I think, too, that countries which believe the athlete is the showcase of the nation are dangerous. I think the athlete is more important than the nation.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I would change "most" to "all". Has a skater ever NOT fallen in their career...EVER? Highly unlikely.

Absolute Words of Wisdom! Skaters fall! I never would have thought that. Now I'm thinking that skiers might fall, prize fighters might go down, football players might fall. tennis players fall, and on and on and on. It seems no one is perfect.

Joe

 

[antmanb]

Good post Ant. - There should be a way to get the skaters skating more freely than in this tight 'must do' kind of way. Trouble with the Whole Package, though, was that it was so easy to cheat, collude, make deals, etc. when a competition was close.

And the CoP has its way of cheating with these random GoE scores and deal making with the Caller who definitely can influence an outcome. I will admit that collusion is tougher now.

I think, too, that countries which believe the athlete is the showcase of the nation are dangerous. I think the athlete is more important than the nation.

Joe

And to be fair to the CoP (shock horror i know!) the LP could certainly be made "freer" by getting rid of the stupid jumping pass and number of spin rules and re-instate the balanced program to avoid people doing twelve double axels at the end of their programs to rack up points.

And i do agree that the number of figures the CoP churns out does make collusion/cheating more obvious but quite frankly if the powers that be are not openly going to say that they've noted an anomoly and explain to the public what has been done about it, i'd rather have cloack and dagger 6.0 back in and have the public and media kick up an almighty media circus to cry foul. Which means that while collusion etc is tougher now, the federations will (if they haven't already) cotton on the fact that can still do whatever they like, maybe even more blatantly than before, because $peedy isn't going to let his precious new judging system ("this is no longer the new judging system it is the ISU judging system" to quote the big fromage himself!!!) come under any fire or sack any jduges...unless of course they're whistle blowing.

Ant

 

[Kwanford Wife]

If you are objecting to something I said, I don't understand.
- Red Dog seemed to say that SC only got on the podium because of COP.
- I answered that most fans seem to think COP is better than 6.0 so SC being on the podium must actually mean she's performed better.
- Antman disputed my statement about "most" fans' preference for COP.
- I acknowledged that I had not included either MK fans or discussions of COP/6.0 prior to this year in my generalization.

If I understand you, you are not disputing my main point re Sasha earning her podium placements under COP (?) but the side point that MK hasn't thrived under COP. Isn't that just a historical fact - that her triumphs came under 6.0 and at best we have little evidence on her performance under COP?

I do hear you about not liking COP but do you think most fans would agree with you or not? I'm really curious since, like I said, the threads I've read have been very strongly pro-COP (of course with many dissenting voices - it's not the USSR).

I'm not sure what you're questioning, but I'll give it a shot...

I disagree with the statement that most skating fans (of course, its important to dismiss the fans of Kwan because we obviously don't count as "skating fans" ) are in favor of CoP. I don't see / read / hear that. What I see is a dedicated community that was glad proactive steps had been taken to improve the integrity of the sport. However, those steps have led to a convoluted mess that rewards mistakes, confuses casual fans who then don't become rabid fans, and encourages skaters, coaches and cheorgraphers to rack up points vs. creating the whole package. But in the post-Olympic hangover, there are skating fans now wondering if the changes will cause long-term damage to the sport.

My side issues to clarify...

- My point about Sasha is that she's obviously has the talent to make the podium but not the nerves to win. This has been the case throughout her career - regardless of the judging system.

-Michelle's case is different because she's injured and has been for awhile. I also think its important to remember that while she did dominate under 6.0, its too easy to assume that she'd fail under the CoP until we see her fail under the new system when she's healthy. That's like saying the Divas of the 80s wouldn't be successful because they didn't perform triple jumps.

Now, having said that, I do agree with Ant & Toni that her cram method of studing for CoP probably wasn't the best idea. But I don't fault her for the effort. It shows just how serious she was to continue her success.


And yes, Red Dog, EVERYBODY has fallen. More than once...

 

[antmanb]

Now, having said that, I do agree with Ant & Toni that her cram method of studing for CoP probably wasn't the best idea. But I don't fault her for the effort. It shows just how serious she was to continue her success.

Just jumping in to say that it wasn't me who said that she crammed for CoP. For the record i'm not sure whether she crammed for CoP per se or crammed for the Olympics...i think her goal all along, regardless of the judging system was to avoid injury by not trying to do the 3/3s until it was absolutely necessary. Absolutely necessary was probably what she thought they were for the Olympics and when she brought them back after her couple of seasons of trying to look after her body and be 3/3/ free, her body broke

Ant

 

[Mathman]

Mathman, you've led a sheltered life.

So true, Joe. I always look for the best in people.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Just jumping in to say that it wasn't me who said that she crammed for CoP. For the record i'm not sure whether she crammed for CoP per se or crammed for the Olympics...i think her goal all along, regardless of the judging system was to avoid injury by not trying to do the 3/3s until it was absolutely necessary. Absolutely necessary was probably what she thought they were for the Olympics and when she brought them back after her couple of seasons of trying to look after her body and be 3/3/ free, her body broke

Ant

You're right... I was being lazy and didn't go back and re-check the previous poster's name... But I think you're on to something with the cramming for the Olympics vs. CoP... its so unfortunate. I would have loved to see Michelle compete at these games. One last hoopla for the Divas before the Newbies took over... I hate it when a plan doesn't come together... Thank goodness for YouTube & old dvds...

 

[Tonichelle]

I guess it's just me, but I have never thought that Sasha acts like a diva or an ice princess or anything of that sort. I do think she tries to "think positively" and to psyche himself up by telling herself, yes, I can do this, I'm a great skater, I can win. While at the same time confronting the same twinges of self-doubt that everyone wrestles with.

I had issues with her personality just by the way she held herself and looked... she looked too much like the girls I couldn't stand in high school and I guess that juvenille approach carried over to skating lol

I do think she's grown up in the last couple of years, I've really liked her since she's gone back to Nicks... she should have stayed with him all along (though if the moves were what she needed to realize that coaches aren't everything then I guess it was a good thing in the long run)

 

[R.D.]

[Sasha] obviously has the talent to make the podium but not the nerves to win. This has been the case throughout her career - regardless of the judging system.

Exactly. This is a "nice" way to put what I've been thinking. If such a day arrives when she can skate clean and all out (assuming she continues) she'll almost certainly win unless someone outjumps her.

-Michelle's case is different because she's injured and has been for awhile. I also think its important to remember that while she did dominate under 6.0, its too easy to assume that she'd fail under the CoP until we see her fail under the new system when she's healthy. That's like saying the Divas of the 80s wouldn't be successful because they didn't perform triple jumps.

I kind of agree too. Kwan is a 6.0 era skater. Who knows whether she would make it under this new system? OTOH, a few other "6.0 era" skaters (like Irina) were able to smoothly transition to the new system, so I don't know if Kwan was "afraid" of the new system or just "had the will, but not the energy" to improve.

JMO

 

[slutskayafan21]

Exactly. This is a "nice" way to put what I've been thinking. If such a day arrives when she can skate clean and all out (assuming she continues) she'll almost certainly win unless someone outjumps her.

I agree but she had better to it soon with so many young jumping beans with outrageous jump dififculty, who all have strong and ever improving style like Asada, Kim, and even Meissner all charging hard.

I kind of agree too. Kwan is a 6.0 era skater. Who knows whether she would make it under this new system? OTOH, a few other "6.0 era" skaters (like Irina) were able to smoothly transition to the new system, so I don't know if Kwan was "afraid" of the new system or just "had the will, but not the energy" to improve.

I think she is a 6.0 era skater. The spins and footwork she used to do were very hard but not in the way that is rewarded under COP, not with the lots of changes of edge and direction that is rewarded under COP. Plus her programs are the kind that dont score as high on the criteria of PCS as they would under presentation score. I actually dont like alot of things of the new system though, and alot of the same things I dont like about are things that make it harder on Kwan ironicaly as well.

 

[R.D.]

I had issues with her personality just by the way she held herself and looked... she looked too much like the girls I couldn't stand in high school and I guess that juvenille approach carried over to skating lol

It's not easy to "know" one's personality unless you spend time with that person. But there is the public "persona" that is in clear view. (I hope you know what I'm referring to.) There are certain parts of her "persona" that I like (her admitting to some sort of drive or ambition in skating is one) but the overall impression that her "persona" (and her skating, but I won't go there) makes on me is negative. Not negative in a "strong" sense, but in an "unfavorable" sense. (in other words, just slightly negative). I hope I make sense because I'm in a hurry right now...