With the new system, I don't think judges will be sitting around, individually or collectively, trying to figure out how to pad a favored skater's PCS to compensate for technical mistakes. Much simpler to just judge the skating as they see it, without doubly penalizing for the mistakes, and let the chips fall where they will.
US Nationals - What are your thoughts?
- Thread starter Kwanford Wife
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Excuse me, in the 1996-1997 season, Tara won Senior GP medals (not the individual events), but those non-gold medals gave her a ticket to the Final, which she won. Kwan was the first GPF champion, Tara the second. I think that DID show ability to compete in a World level competition.
I agree that Tara did have a dreadful flutz and she was little more than a jumping bean. But she was on a drive to win the 1998 OGM, and she worked that 3L3L combination until she damaged her hip, but she did master it. The 1997 US championship came at a time when Kwan was nursing a stress fracture in her foot and she was not at her best. Tara took advantage of that and claimed the US title and two months later, the World title. That she went on to win Worlds that year shows that she was skating much better than she had the previous season, and that's what the US judges saw also.
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That is the way I would think / hope. Really isn't a "favorite skater" the same thing as a skater that has done constantly well and people have grown to like them due to this? Then They are just more likely to win because the have been winning, thus becoming the favorite?... I hope that makes since. IOW the best and Favorite are USALLY the ones to win because they have a tendency to be the best and win the comp based on that.
I reiterate the Usually.
As for the CoP I hope they wouldn't be "screwing around with it" either, for their good as well. I needs to be used as is, in order to see areas for improvement etc... Other wise they wouldn't know if a problem occurred due to screwing around or if the system still needs tweaking. I might be alone in this theory, but I think if they start padding PCS to compensate it will stand out as a big red flag to some that do review the scores. And whether or not they do what they should with thew judges or not, it is still going to cause someone to be looking over their shoulder - and who wants that?
I think Nats will be judged fairly, and more so a possibility of fairness (favoritism plays less of a part) now more then in the past IMO.
And Kimmie will be the gold
IMO this talk of favoritism and propping up is a true joke. Although I have seen ridiculous scores at US Nats before, I still have yet to see someone "handed" the title. Whomever has won the title was the person who skated the BEST that night. I think the same will happen in 2007; it's just that the lady who is likely to skate the best is overwhelmingly Kimmie.
I admit to being cynical. I just don't think the Powers-that-be have changed. The new system has made it a bit harder to pad the numbers, but it's made it darn near impossible to catch cheaters. Judges who are so inclined can now work a bit harder in peace.
That makes no sense, Susan Beth. This thread is about US Nationals, and there is NO secret judging at US competitions. The names of the judges and how each one rated the skaters is available online. So I don't see how there would be "cheaters" at US events.
Yeah, all those numbers are perfectly clear right off the bat to everybody! People here don't usually have much of a clue until the protocols are out and then you can interpret those a bunch of different ways. The PCS are all absolutely self explantory! Those poor judges have no room at all.
There are always a few judges who don't go with the others. I recall Judge #7, Margery Schleh of California, who gave Weir low marks his squeaky clean "Valse Triste" SP in 2004. She lowballed everyone except Weiss, who had a messy skate. Judge #2, Patricia French (from Indiana) seemed to favor Lysacek over everyone else. Judge #9, Gretchen Wilson from Minn, went with Lysacek and dumped on Savoie and Weiss.
5.7 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.5 5.6 . Weir
5.7 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.5 5.7
1 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 2
5.5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.2 2. Savoie
5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.4 5.3
3 2 4 3 1 3 2 2 7
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.2 5.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 3. Lysacek
5.3 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.8
5 1 3 1 3 5 6 4 1
5.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.3 4. Weiss
5.8 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5
2 4 2 4 4 2 1 3 6
But in the FS, the judges all agreed on what was good and what was not, and the right skaters ended up on the podium.
5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 1. Weir
6.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.7
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.9 2. Weiss
5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
2 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
5.3 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 3. Jahnke
5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.8
5 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3
5.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 4. Savoie
5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7
3 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 4
There was a similar blurp from the judges in the Ladies FS at Nationals 2004. Sasha skated first and had a fall and a near-fall, but Judge #1, Steve Winkler of California, gave Sasha a 6.0 for presentation, which caused quite a buzz among the commentators and the crowd. But then Kwan had a blowout skate to "Tosca" and Winkler had no choice but to do the right thing:
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 1. Kwan
6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 2. Cohen
6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
So I think the judges DO have their preferences, especially in the SP, but when it comes to decide on the winner, they judge what they see in front of them. And SP preferences are far more powerful under 6.0 than they are under CoP.
Some judges WILL inflate PCS scores for their favorite skaters, but since the high and low scores are thrown out, in the end the right skaters come out on top in the majority of cases.
5.7 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.5 5.6 . Weir
5.7 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.5 5.7
1 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 2
5.5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.2 2. Savoie
5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.4 5.3
3 2 4 3 1 3 2 2 7
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.2 5.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 3. Lysacek
5.3 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.8
5 1 3 1 3 5 6 4 1
5.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.3 4. Weiss
5.8 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5
2 4 2 4 4 2 1 3 6
But in the FS, the judges all agreed on what was good and what was not, and the right skaters ended up on the podium.
5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 1. Weir
6.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.7
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.9 2. Weiss
5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
2 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
5.3 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 3. Jahnke
5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.8
5 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3
5.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 4. Savoie
5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7
3 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 4
There was a similar blurp from the judges in the Ladies FS at Nationals 2004. Sasha skated first and had a fall and a near-fall, but Judge #1, Steve Winkler of California, gave Sasha a 6.0 for presentation, which caused quite a buzz among the commentators and the crowd. But then Kwan had a blowout skate to "Tosca" and Winkler had no choice but to do the right thing:
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 1. Kwan
6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 2. Cohen
6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
So I think the judges DO have their preferences, especially in the SP, but when it comes to decide on the winner, they judge what they see in front of them. And SP preferences are far more powerful under 6.0 than they are under CoP.
Some judges WILL inflate PCS scores for their favorite skaters, but since the high and low scores are thrown out, in the end the right skaters come out on top in the majority of cases.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Chuck, thanks for taking the time to gather those statistics and write them up. Your posts are full of erudition and even when I disagree with you, you always have facts to back up your opinions.
OT -- Now...I hope everyone will indulge me in a little wallow down memory lane:
OT -- Now...I hope everyone will indulge me in a little wallow down memory lane:
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http://www.taralipinski.com/index3.htm
Chuckm, still not right. From Tara's official website, remember that the GP type events are in 1996 for the 1996-1997 season: In fall of 1996, Tara had 2 seconds ( Skate Canada and Nations Cup, now replaced by Cup of China) and a third at Trophee Lalique in GP level competition. US Nationals is then in 1997, where she beat a faltering Michelle by skating well, and finally having her breakthrough performance, and following it up by beating Michelle again at Worlds, again by skating very well.
Chuckm, still not right. From Tara's official website, remember that the GP type events are in 1996 for the 1996-1997 season: In fall of 1996, Tara had 2 seconds ( Skate Canada and Nations Cup, now replaced by Cup of China) and a third at Trophee Lalique in GP level competition. US Nationals is then in 1997, where she beat a faltering Michelle by skating well, and finally having her breakthrough performance, and following it up by beating Michelle again at Worlds, again by skating very well.
That is true, but Tara DID medal against World class skaters at the GP, something Sarah Hughes and Sasha Cohen weren't able to do in their first or second tries. And look who beat Tara at those 3 GP events: Slutskaya in Canada and Germany, and Kwan and Butryskaya at Lalique. Slutskaya was the bronze medalist at World 1996, Butyrskaya was 4th (and Lu Chen had retired after winning silver). Tara proved in the GP that she was a contender to be reckoned with.
And, of course, Tara turned the tables and beat Kwan and Slutskaya at the GPF, and again at Worlds.
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We will have to see if Caroline Zhang skates effortlessly away with the gold as she has done all season.
In my opinion, ravhel flatt is overated.
In my opinion, ravhel flatt is overated.
I don't recall Tara's 1997 LP, but I LOVED Michelle's showing to Taj Mal at the Worlds and she won the LP rightfully so. But that's all water under the bridge.
As a Michell Kwan fanatic, I can admit that I think there was a lot to respect and admire about Tara's skating-her speed, 3lp/3lp, 3t/3sal sequence, good speed on spins and lots of enthusiasm. She definitely had great presence on the ice and commanded your attention-the "IT" factor. What I did not like was the hunched over back, pumping her body as she stroked, sometimes rushed moves, little musicality/presentation outside the enthusiasm she projected, and that godawful flutz and axle technique, not to mention small jumps. She was hyped to the max-"TaraMania"-but at least she lived up to her hype by delivering on the biggest stage, not because her main competitor faltered (as what happened in 2002 and, in a way, 2006), but because she skated her absolute best.
I think the difference between Tara Vs Michelle and Rachel Vs Kimmie is 1997 was the year before the Olympics and Tara was eligible. Obviously the US wanted to send their two best shots, so the press Tara got went to good use.
As a Michell Kwan fanatic, I can admit that I think there was a lot to respect and admire about Tara's skating-her speed, 3lp/3lp, 3t/3sal sequence, good speed on spins and lots of enthusiasm. She definitely had great presence on the ice and commanded your attention-the "IT" factor. What I did not like was the hunched over back, pumping her body as she stroked, sometimes rushed moves, little musicality/presentation outside the enthusiasm she projected, and that godawful flutz and axle technique, not to mention small jumps. She was hyped to the max-"TaraMania"-but at least she lived up to her hype by delivering on the biggest stage, not because her main competitor faltered (as what happened in 2002 and, in a way, 2006), but because she skated her absolute best.
I think the difference between Tara Vs Michelle and Rachel Vs Kimmie is 1997 was the year before the Olympics and Tara was eligible. Obviously the US wanted to send their two best shots, so the press Tara got went to good use.
Tara at 14 won a medal at each of her first 3 GP competitions (it was called the "Champions Series" at that time). In those events she finished behind Slutskaya, Kwan and Butyrskaya, but they were still 3 medals, and she lost to 3 of the 4 top skaters from Worlds 1996, no disgrace at all. And like Mao Asada, she won the Champion Series Final (the equivalent of the GPF) in her first try.
At 14, Emily finished 11th (not 15th) at US Nationals as a Junior and was not sent to any international events. At 15, she didn't make it out of Eastern Sectionals as a Junior. Emily was 17 when she won her first GP medal after two years and 4 attempts, and she finished behind Julia Sebestyen, who'd finished 22nd at 2006 Worlds, and Yukari Nakano, who'd finished 5th. In two years of GP competition, Emily has never made the GPF.
Tara worse than Emily? I don't think so. By the time she was Emily's age, she had won a US Championship, a World Championship, and the OGM, and was the lead skater in SOI.
At 14, Emily finished 11th (not 15th) at US Nationals as a Junior and was not sent to any international events. At 15, she didn't make it out of Eastern Sectionals as a Junior. Emily was 17 when she won her first GP medal after two years and 4 attempts, and she finished behind Julia Sebestyen, who'd finished 22nd at 2006 Worlds, and Yukari Nakano, who'd finished 5th. In two years of GP competition, Emily has never made the GPF.
Tara worse than Emily? I don't think so. By the time she was Emily's age, she had won a US Championship, a World Championship, and the OGM, and was the lead skater in SOI.
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- Jul 26, 2003
The one area in which Hughes surpassed Lipinski was at her senior international championship debut: Lipinski barely qualified, having a wipe-out in her SP, while Hughes finished seventh (in the SP, LP, and final results) at Torino, an Olympics she didn't qualify for initially, followed by an 8th at Calgary, where her "melt-down" was a very respectable 10th place Worlds debut in the SP.
I suspect that Emily Hughes has the same stubborn "I'll show them!" streak that her older sister did, and that it helped her combat any nerves and uncertaintly about competing in Torino.
In every other way, Lipinski's record trumps Hughes's, at least to date, and at least in terms of the amount of time she achieved it. (Although, given my druthers, I'd much rather be Emily Hughes than Tara Lipinski.)
I couldn't agree more.
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