2015-16 ISU Grand Prix Final

[Buttercup]

Following up on my previous post, I've seen people suggest - here and elsewhere - that it's unfair that Aaron is missing out on the GPF after winning an event, or that Tuktamysheva is missing out even though she won Worlds/last year's GPF. But these achievements are not meant as automatic GPF qualifiers. If the ISU had wanted skaters to qualify based on such things, it would have stated so in the rules.

Skaters have missed out on the GPF after winning GPs, as reigning World champions and as reigning GPF champions before. And if it cheers anyone up, skaters have also gone on to win Worlds after failing to qualify for the GPF (Buttle, Lysacek, Asada).

 

[mrrice]

Maybe I should already know this but I don't. Is there a list of skaters who have made the GPF?

 

[ice coverage]

Maybe I should already know this but I don't. Is there a list of skaters who have made the GPF?

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2015/gpsmen.pdf Men
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2015/gpsladies.pdf Ladies
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2015/gpspairs.pdf Pairs
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2015/gpsdance.pdf Dance

As I noted in the other thread, the ISU as of today formally has marked the standings as official.

(As opposed to the initial post-NHK updating, which still was marked as "unofficial.")

 

[Sackie]

I hope it isn't official. If by any chance G/P get called up due to withdrawals - I don't think they would like Skating in the Junior Grand Prix event. Cause they are listed as substitutes for the Jr event on the ISU site. ;-)
On that note - if one of the top 6 do withdraw in Sr dance would that mean G/P would get the nod since they skated in TEB.
Although personally I hope not making the final will have them rethinking their short dance as they move forward in for the rest of the season. It does not seem to be working well for them and it could mean they will be dropping out of the top 10 comes worlds. And once other teams start passing you it is hard to get back up there - just look how long it has taken the Shibutanis. I can actually see them winning worlds this season if the US has the guts to place them above C/B at home. And wouldn't it be a big boost if they both can make it on the world podium skating at home. Which I think has a high chance of happening.

 

[whatif]

I hope it isn't official. If by any chance G/P get called up due to withdrawals - I don't think they would like Skating in the Junior Grand Prix event. Cause they are listed as substitutes for the Jr event on the ISU site. ;-)
On that note - if one of the top 6 do withdraw in Sr dance would that mean G/P would get the nod since they skated in TEB.
Although personally I hope not making the final will have them rethinking their short dance as they move forward in for the rest of the season. It does not seem to be working well for them and it could mean they will be dropping out of the top 10 comes worlds. And once other teams start passing you it is hard to get back up there - just look how long it has taken the Shibutanis. I can actually see them winning worlds this season if the US has the guts to place them above C/B at home. And wouldn't it be a big boost if they both can make it on the world podium skating at home. Which I think has a high chance of happening.

I believe, S/K will still qualify before them.

 

[ice coverage]

I hope it isn't official. If by any chance G/P get called up due to withdrawals - I don't think they would like Skating in the Junior Grand Prix event. Cause they are listed as substitutes for the Jr event on the ISU site. ;-) ....

:shocked: Eeeek, you're right. Same mistake on the ISU pdfs for all disciplines.

 

[deedee1]

One bad luck to have missed qualifying for GPF for some skaters is probably good luck at upcoming Nats and Worlds for them later in the season, I think.

Besides, how many of us still 'remember' who won this season's GPF winner, say, in 2018 or in 2022?
I am sure the skating god has made some note in her/his own 'Things to do/remember list' about the unfortunate/unforeseeable TEB of this season with the names of skaters affected by this. Just imagine come Feburary 2018 if She/He is a bit irresolute who to give OGMs to since there aren't no clear winners to her/his eyes, s/he may take out this note and BANNNN!!!, reward OGMs to one or two skaters on the list.

The reality is I am having hard time to cheer up my husband, who is btw a big fan of Liza and Max, though...

 

[Manitou]

For the ladies, except Ashley, everybody else has EXACTLY 20% chance. Mathematically 20%. No favorite among those five. Every combination of the five is equally probable. That makes 5! combinations, which is 120.

 

[EdgeCall]

Just out of curiosity, I calculated the GPF qualifiers if the FP were not cancelled for TEB, but for any other of the GPs. In order to simulate the missing TEB FP I took the FP result of the other GP the TEB skaters did or, if they did only one GP, I took the result of the chronologically closest ISU event they did. According to the "Bordeaux rule" the 7th placed skater qualified if he skated at the event with the cancelled FP. For time reasons I could only do the singles. This is what I found:

MEN:
FP cancelled in SA : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Max, Han + Shoma (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in SC : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Daisuke, Shoma, Max + Yuzuru (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in COC: Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max
FP cancelled in TEB : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Daisuke
FP cancelled in COR: Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max
FP cancelled in NHK : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max

Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru and Shoma were always save, the last two with the help of the Bordeaux rule. Max is the poor bastard of the season. The cancelled FP in TEB hit him badly, neutralized his first place and kicked him out; in any other case he qualified.

LADIES:
FP cancelled in SA : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Liza
FP cancelled in SC : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Ashley
FP cancelled in COC: Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Liza, Ashley + Courtney (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in TEB : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Ashley
FP cancelled in COR: Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Liza
FP cancelled in NHK : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Ashley, Elena, Liza + Mao (saved by Bordeaux rule)

Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko and Mao were always in, Mao needed the Bordeaux rule to be save. Elena had a 5/6 chance, Liza and Ashley had 4/6. Ashley was lucky, Liza was not.

 

[Mathman]

For the ladies, except Ashley, everybody else has EXACTLY 20% chance. Mathematically 20%. No favorite among those five. Every combination of the five is equally probable. That makes 5! combinations, which is 120.

Actually, I think Ashley has at least a non-zero chance to crash the top five. Who knows -- there may as many as 720 possible outcomes.

 

[ice coverage]

Just out of curiosity, I calculated the GPF qualifiers if the FP were not cancelled for TEB, but for any other of the GPs. In order to simulate the missing TEB FP I took the FP result of the other GP the TEB skaters did or, if they did only one GP, I took the result of the chronologically closest ISU event they did. According to the "Bordeaux rule" the 7th placed skater qualified if he skated at the event with the cancelled FP. For time reasons I could only do the singles. This is what I found:

MEN:
FP cancelled in SA : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Max, Han + Shoma (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in SC : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Daisuke, Shoma, Max + Yuzuru (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in COC: Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max
FP cancelled in TEB : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Daisuke
FP cancelled in COR: Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max
FP cancelled in NHK : Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru, Shoma, Max

Javier, Patrick, Boyang, Yuzuru and Shoma were always save, the last two with the help of the Bordeaux rule. Max is the poor bastard of the season. The cancelled FP in TEB hit him badly, neutralized his first place and kicked him out; in any other case he qualified.

LADIES:
FP cancelled in SA : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Liza
FP cancelled in SC : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Ashley
FP cancelled in COC: Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Liza, Ashley + Courtney (saved by Bordeaux rule)
FP cancelled in TEB : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Ashley
FP cancelled in COR: Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Mao, Elena, Liza
FP cancelled in NHK : Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko, Ashley, Elena, Liza + Mao (saved by Bordeaux rule)

Gracie, Evgenia, Satoko and Mao were always in, Mao needed the Bordeaux rule to be save. Elena had a 5/6 chance, Liza and Ashley had 4/6. Ashley was lucky, Liza was not.

Wow. Thanks for the originality of this perspective, EdgeCall.

Although it does not change anything in real life, your analysis is indeed interesting.

---

I hope it isn't official. If by any chance G/P get called up due to withdrawals - I don't think they would like Skating in the Junior Grand Prix event. Cause they are listed as substitutes for the Jr event on the ISU site. ;-) ...

Update: The ISU has fixed the PDFs. G/P now are official subs for the GPF , not JGPF.

 

[Mathman]

But I can't agree with your optimism that everyone at GS belongs to the (Max Aaron) choir.

I guess by "the choir" I meant that vast inclusive ensemble that does not sneak off to twitter to go all mean-girl.) Some members of the choir are assigned soaring arias, while others are content silently to nod in time to the music.

It's all good.

 

[SaraM]

im going to Barcelona to see this amazing line up!!

 

[Daniel1998]

Tied for first in the predictions game overall. Can't wait for the GPF predictions board to go up.
What am I going to do about the ladies though? So tight... I'll have to pull names out of a hat.

 

[TheGrandSophy]

There has been so much back and forth and to me what seems like redefining of what 'the choir' is that I am confused. So here are multiple interpretations and decision as to whether I'm part of each one

The 'Wouldn't dream of gloating that Max is not part of GPF' choir- yes, I think anything like that is mean and horrible.

The 'Feel sad that some skaters including Max weren't able to skate a FS at TEB' choir- yes, I understand why the decision to suspend TEB was made and I understand why SPs were counted, but of course if it had been possible for the FSs to take places, it would have been better.

The 'Feel really sad that Max won't be at TEB' choir- No, he isn't my cup of tea as a skater and so it doesn't sadden me on a personal level not to see him skate, although the feelings above still apply.

The 'Can only say positive things about Max' choir- No, he isn't my cup of tea. I don't like his programmes and I feel, whilst he has improved, he still lacks a lot of what I like in a skater.

 

[ice coverage]

I guess by "the choir" I meant that vast inclusive ensemble that does not sneak off to twitter to go all mean-girl.) Some members of the choir are assigned soaring arias, while others are content silently to nod in time to the music.

It's all good.

Well ... it's mostly good, I would say.

But if you are saying that GS itself is immune from mean-girl negativity, I don't agree. More than one skater has been the occasional target of mean-girl negativity. Through no fault of the mods, who try to keep things from getting ugly, of course.

Lest anyone wonder, I'm not saying that any negativity automatically is mean-girl negativity.
"Skater X's spins are slow" is not mean-girl negativity.
But "the shape of Skater X's head is so wrong" is mean-girl negativity, IMO. That's a real comment from 2015 here on GS. I did not invent it.

---

im going to Barcelona to see this amazing line up!!

Lucky you, SaraM . Have a great time.

 

[Batsuchan]

The ISU rules have detailed information re tie-breakers.

Because of the ISU's special ruling after the cancellation of TEB, this season's GPF qualification procedure has four levels of tie-breakers. For the exact language, see ISU Communication 1980 and/or the GS article re the ISU's special ruling. I'm paraphrasing:

Thanks so much for answering my question (and posting the link to the standings)!!

It will be interesting to see how the top qualifiers in the singles handle the pressure of skating last. Will Gracie be able to hold it together if Evgenia puts up a big number before her? How will Javi handle skating right after Yuzu? (Poor Brian Orser will have to do a quick jacket change!)

 

[Ice Dance]

How will Javi handle skating right after Yuzu? (Poor Brian Orser will have to do a quick jacket change!)

Worked out just fine for Javi at Worlds last year.

 

[Tavi...]

Fine, whatever. There are people gloating and celebrating that Max won't be in Barcelona on Twitter and I guess it's all okay because it's only Max, who cares, right?

Karne: I haven't read beyond your post # 42 in this thread that I'm replying to, but I did read the posts before it. There is not a single person gloating or saying they're happy Max didn't make it in. Really. Not one.

ETA: I guess I should have read the rest of the thread before posting because clearly a lot of people responded to this post before me. But I can now say that in having read all of the posts in this thread I still didn't see a single one gloating. Whether there are gloating comments elsewhere I can't say, but IMHO from what I've read generally in the past few months, including on twitter, I've seen far more positive and supportive talk about Max than otherwise. Pavarotti once said he learned early that no singer is universally liked - and as great as he was, there were plenty who had a very vocal dislike of him.

As to people jumping on Max's fans for supporting in a way they don't jump on fans of other skaters - and this comment isn't specifically responding to you, Karne - I have to laugh. I've been following FS for less than 2 years, but during that time people have jumped on Jason's fans and Patrick Chan's fans more than once for "defending" them or getting angry at criticism. The most recent time I recall is when Jason won either Nationals or came 4th at Worlds and his FSU fans were chastised for gloating about it. Jason hasn't been much in the news this fall so he hasn't drawn a lot of negative commentary, but just go back and read the 2015 US Nats mens threads and you will see he was hugely criticized for what many thought was an undeserved win and a lot of vehement support from his fans which got squashed down. I think a comment was made in another ( perhaps older) thread that people were afraid to post anything negative about Patrick because his supporters would immediately jump all over them - I think the phrase used was "the Chan Patrol" or something similar.

What I see as different here is that although there has been a lot of criticism of Max in the past, that has subsided this season and been replaced by mostly, though not exclusively, far more positive comments. So for myself, I find it difficult to hear defenses of Max based on what seems to me to be a reality that no longer exists. JMHO, of course.

 

[NoNameFace]

Actually, I think Ashley has at least a non-zero chance to crash the top five. Who knows -- there may as many as 720 possible outcomes.

A plenty to choose for GPF Predictions Game <oh my>

Seriously, for singles I have no idea from what I should begin to tackle GPF predictions - litterally after 6 GPs everything could happen...