Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation

[Ice Dance]

Sasha did both SA & SC - at least in 2002 and 2003 plus CoR (2002) and Trophee Lalique (2003) (as TEB then called) as they used to do 3 GP back then to qualify for GPF but it was an exhausting schedule

Yes, it was, and if I was Papadakis & Cizeron, I would find it quite exhausting to train in Canada, fly to France, fly back to Canada, fly to Japan, and fly back to Canada. (Before, yes, flying back and forth for the GPF, their own nationals, Europeans, and then Worlds. It's a really tough schedule. Lots of athletes do it, but usually when you are the World champion, you can at least choose to do one event on the same continent where you train. So for them, I can actually see SC (close to their training home and technically an option unlike last season) or Rostelecom (which they could do right after TEB without having to fly back to North America) as a possibility. An unlikely possibility for all of the obvious reasons, but I'm not sure doing two events in a row would be more exhausting than the back and forth.

In the Mikhail Kolyada fan fest thread it's been reported that he will do Rostelecom and either Cup of China or NHK, pending Hanyu's decision, and that he turned down Skate America. Since Hanyu is a 1-3 seed and Kolyada is a 4-6 seed, not sure why Hanyu's decision would factor into Kolyada's second choice of Grand Prix? Also, since Adam is also a 4-6 seed, it seems odd that Kolyada was even offered SA.

And this is why logic doesn't always work! Maybe Rafael, Ashley, and Adam just prefer SC. (If I was Adam, I wouldn't).

 

[Tutto]

In the Mikhail Kolyada fan fest thread it's been reported that he will do Rostelecom and either Cup of China or NHK, pending Hanyu's decision, and that he turned down Skate America. Since Hanyu is a 1-3 seed and Kolyada is a 4-6 seed, not sure why Hanyu's decision would factor into Kolyada's second choice of Grand Prix? Also, since Adam is also a 4-6 seed, it seems odd that Kolyada was even offered SA.

I am not sure but inside the 4-6 seed the first one ie Kolyada has the first pick

 

[mcq]

And this is why logic doesn't always work! Maybe Rafael, Ashley, and Adam just prefer SC. (If I was Adam, I wouldn't).

But Chan will most likely be in SC so I don't think it is possible for Adam to be assigned there? 4-6 Can't share the same GP right? He won't be able to go to CoR too due to Kolyada.

 

[Tavi...]

[/B]

I am not sure but inside the 4-6 seed the first one ie Kolyada has the first pick

Maybe, but since Adam is 2016 national champion as well as a 4-6 seed I think USFS would normally send him to SA which means Kolyada couldn't go even if he wanted to as I think host pick takes precedence over skater preference (unless they bend the rules?). Anyway unless Adam and Patrick switch I guess Adam will be at SA - we'll find out in a few days.

ETA Mrs P the fan fest post states that SA was offered to him and that he decided not to accept. However, it's possible something got lost in translation. It's interesting to know that sometimes rules are bent on 4-6 seeds.

 

[Mrs. P]

ETA Mrs P the fan fest post states that SA was offered to him and that he decided not to accept. However, it's possible something got lost in translation. It's interesting to know that sometimes rules are bent on 4-6 seeds.

To clarify, it's generally can be bent for both 1-3 and 4-6 seeds. The most noteworthy examples came in the 2012-2013 season, when both Daisuke (2nd at Worlds in 2012) and Yuzuru (3rd at worlds) were sent to NHK) and Brian Joubert (4th at Worlds) and Florent Amodio (5th) at worlds were at TEB. Obviously JSF and FFSG did some sort of deal/bargain to allow this to happen.

It was also possible because -- it happened that those groups of skaters were from the same host country. So what likely happened that Patrick was chosen by SC, then Daisuke and Yuzuru was chosen in the host picks by JSF, and then Brian/Florent by FFSG.

That left no 1-3 seeds and only Michael Brezina in the 4-6 seeds (he was chosen by SA).

Probably worth mentioning roughly how the selection process works (based on past practice, not sure if they do the same this time around), kwanfan1818 has a nice summary on FSU

After the hosts choose host spots, the hosts draw for selection order, one draw per discipline, and they draw from Worlds 1-3, 4-6, and for singles, 7-9 and 10-12, and for Pairs and Dance, 7-10, and through the groups defined -- those guaranteed one, comeback skaters, split couples, etc. If the host already has a host pick from any of the groups, they skip that round. If a host pick is guaranteed two, they are chosen for the second when their Worlds group comes up

.

So it sounds like its
*host picks (ALL)
--- host pick order draw
*1-3 worlds - 1 at a time
*4-6 worlds - 1 at a time
*7-12 worlds - 1 at a time
* guarantee 1 -1 at a time
* come back - 1 at a time.

So if Skate America chose Adam, Jason as a host picks and do a TBD on the third, Skate Canada chose Patrick for a host pick, JSF chose Yuzuru for NHK . RSF chose Koylada, China chose Jin, then:

Japan and China would skip 1-3 round: US, France, Russia and Canada would pick from 1-3, giving Yuzuru and Jin second even and Javi two events.
USFS, SC and Russia would skip 4-6 round, which means China, France and Japan would do that round giving Koyalda, Chan, Rippon thier second event.

So let's say USFS gets to go first...
* They would pick from 1-3 (Javi, Yuzuru, Jin)
* Skip 4-6
* Pick 7-9 (Uno or Brezina; USFS already picked host picks, so can't pick Max Aaron)
* Pick 10-12 (Ten or Righni; can't pick Grant Hochstein for same reason above)
* Picked guaranteed 1
* pick comeback (if any)

And then the other feds would go and so on...

I think that's how it works

 

[Tavi...]

To clarify, it's generally can be bent for both 1-3 and 4-6 seeds. The most noteworthy examples came in the 2012-2013 season, when both Daisuke (2nd at Worlds in 2012) and Yuzuru (3rd at worlds) were sent to NHK) and Brian Joubert (4th at Worlds) and Florent Amodio (5th) at worlds were at TEB. Obviously JSF and FFSG did some sort of deal/bargain to allow this to happen.

Thx - haven't been a skating fan long enough to know that history. Anyway, we'll know in a few days about this year!

 

[chuckm]

In reality, Kolyada couldn't "turn down" SA because it hasn't been offered. I think what he meant is that he would PREFER CoC or NHK over SA. However, when push comes to shove, in the 4-6 pick round, if the US picks third and Kolyada didn't get picked by China or Japan, he may get SA anyway.

 

[Tavi...]

In reality, Kolyada couldn't "turn down" SA because it hasn't been offered. I think what he meant is that he would PREFER CoC or NHK over SA. However, when push comes to shove, in the 4-6 pick round, if the US picks third and Kolyada didn't get picked by China or Japan, he may get SA anyway.

How do you know it hasn't been offered?

 

[actualrealliveanna]

I think Russian fed will do their damnest to keep Elena from having to go against Medvedeva, Med being nigh unbeatable and Elena being their second most consistent girl... although other players probably would happily push them together.

I just realized Pogo won't have to go against Med at all, she might qualify for GPF!

Last year, Elena and Evgenia were BOTH at Rostelecom, as was Adelina Sotnikova. The result was a Russian podium sweep, and both Elena and Evgenia made it to the GPF, and both were on the podium!

 

[cathlen]

I'm most interested how Skate Canada will handle Ice Dance since they don't have a team that had been on podium. So they will end up with World medalist, possibly V/M and W/P Though I would send W/P elsewhere.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Oh goody....thing thing I anticipated for Friday happened yesterday...so it looks like I'll have two different anxiety levels in the same week but not in two consecutive days. And it relates to hockey.

But I'm sure Thursday will put me out of misery.

 

[LRK]

Note: Re the Mikhail Kolyada and Yuzuru Hanyu thing in the Mikhail fanthread. JuliaFromSiberia clarified that the reason Mikhail had to wait on Yuzuru's decision wasn't WHERE Yuzuru was to skate but IF he was going to take part in the GP at all. If he chooses not to - because of his injuries - that would push Mikhail up into the 1-3 seed bracket.

 

[apgold]

I wonder if Yuzu's foot injury is more serious if he's thinking of skipping GPs? But then again, he peaked last season at the GPF and faltered at Worlds, so maybe this is a good strategy.

All of these contingencies on who goes where makes my head hurt, so I'll leave it to the ISU experts and Thursday's announcement.

I wish I knew where in NYC the meeting is held so I could go spy, LOL.

 

[Tavi...]

Note: Re the Mikhail Kolyada and Yuzuru Hanyu thing in the Mikhail fanthread. JuliaFromSiberia clarified that the reason Mikhail had to wait on Yuzuru's decision wasn't WHERE Yuzuru was to skate but IF he was going to take part in the GP at all. If he chooses not to - because of his injuries - that would push Mikhail up into the 1-3 seed bracket.

That makes more sense, but would Yuzuru withdraw from consideration this early? I would think he would stay in, get his assignments, and then withdraw later on if he wasn't ready to compete.

 

[MaxSwagg]

I wonder if Yuzu's foot injury is more serious if he's thinking of skipping GPs? But then again, he peaked last season at the GPF and faltered at Worlds, so maybe this is a good strategy.

All of these contingencies on who goes where makes my head hurt, so I'll leave it to the ISU experts and Thursday's announcement.

I wish I knew where in NYC the meeting is held so I could go spy, LOL.

Well, he's given no indication of skipping so that is just speculation. I can't see that happening at all. It may be better for him to "do a Yuna" and just come in at Worlds. Though I wouldn't say he faltered because he peaked too early. He faltered because he was injured so I don't think it had to do with peaking too early.

Thursday cannot come fast enough.

 

[Marin]

Even if his WD is already decided ,JSF will not say it until autumn and keep him in list till the end. Can you image what happens in Japan if JSF announces it now? I find it a bit weird assumption tbh. JSF has never done this before.

Also he is back on ice for some time already and there is a video of him skating, no signs of wd. Logically he is recovered and there is plenty of time ahead.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I see some logic in him skipping the GP this year. He tends to get injured by worlds... if he stays wrapped in bubble wrap for a few months rather than skating the GP, he might be able to pull off worlds without an injury.

He has already won the GPF 3 times now, as well has having been to and medaled at all six GP events.

What he has not done, is win 4CC, and he rarely has successfully made it to worlds uninjured. Next year's 4CC is the Olympic test event... so we may see more skaters there than usual. It could make sense for Hanyu to rethink his season and treat Japan Nationals like his first GP, 4CC like his second, and worlds like the GPF. If they could think in this terms of scheduling next year, he could win both worlds and 4CC without and injury. There is some logic in it. Let his poor body heal for some bit, then focus on the real showdown events leading up to 2018. I don't think he will as I think he is too competitive, but honestly, i think it makes a lot of sense for him.

 

[Marin]

I see some logic in him skipping the GP this year. He tends to get injured by worlds... if he stays wrapped in bubble wrap for a few months rather than skating the GP, he might be able to pull off worlds without an injury.

He has already won the GPF 3 times now, as well has having been to and medaled at all six GP events.

What he has not done, is win 4CC, and he rarely has successfully made it to worlds uninjured. Next year's 4CC is the Olympic test event... so we may see more skaters there than usual. It could make sense for Hanyu to rethink his season and treat Japan Nationals like his first GP, 4CC like his second, and worlds like the GPF. If they could think in this terms of scheduling next year, he could win both worlds and 4CC without and injury. There is some logic in it. Let his poor body heal for some bit, then focus on the real showdown events leading up to 2018. I don't think he will as I think he is too competitive, but honestly, i think it makes a lot of sense for him.

I mean yes, there is the logic, but I don't see the logic in announcing it now as they can do it in autumn, why making a huge fuss in Japan by saying it earlier?

 

[chuckm]

How do you know it hasn't been offered?

Only the top two seeds can state their preferences and be reasonably assured they will get their choices. The 3rd seed gets whatever events are left after the top two get what they want. The hosts do draw for selection for 1-3 seeds, but will traditionally honor the preferences of the World gold and silver medalists.

When it comes to the 4-6 seeds, the skaters' preferences are not guaranteed or may not even be taken into consideration---it is surprising that Kolyada assumes that he has a say where he will skate. Since the order of host selection is unknown at this point, no host can "offer" an invitation to a seed in this category. It is possible that some US coach or judge asked him at Worlds if he would be interested in competing at SA, but that is not the same thing as being offered an invitation to the event.

 

[chuckm]

Note: Re the Mikhail Kolyada and Yuzuru Hanyu thing in the Mikhail fanthread. JuliaFromSiberia clarified that the reason Mikhail had to wait on Yuzuru's decision wasn't WHERE Yuzuru was to skate but IF he was going to take part in the GP at all. If he chooses not to - because of his injuries - that would push Mikhail up into the 1-3 seed bracket.

Then he would have NO choice at all---he would get the events left after the top two seeds made their choices.

For example:


Javier picks CAN and FRA
Jin picks RUS and CHN

that leaves USA and JPN for Kolyada---whether he likes it or not