2018 US Championships Sr. Ladies FS

[readernick]

Well she is going to be billed as USA #1. Do you think it will take much effort?

Karen's PCS have not improved dramatically since being crowned US Champion last year. USA #1 doesn't mean that much. However, I think Bradie's PCS will improve because internationally skaters like Alina Zagitova (technically great, artistically ???) get good PCS because they are reliable and rotate jumps. Bradie does that.

 

[da96103]

With all of the arguing and disagreements...we can all agree my mom's texts are hilarious, right?

"Jumping ability has gone down in the past 20 years which is weird." (NO MOM OMG everything they are doing is wayyyyy harder.)

"Your brother is wondering if you had been a natural figure skater and went to the Olympics how our lives would be different." (Well mom, we'd probably be poorer and I'd be thinner - also this is funny because my 20 year old brother is watching skating with my mom on a Friday night.)

"Can't Brady win the Olympics?" (Yes, she spelled the name like that.)

"Where's that pervert Frank Carroll at?" (MOM NO WHY)

She liked Starr and Bradie the best. Up until Starr, she was NOT enjoying Nationals. Then in the last group when the competition heated up, she actually got invested. Now I need to make her get invested in the international ladies so we can root for Evgenia together during the Olympics....

Where did this come from? Putting Gracie's jacket into the trashcan is not a peverted act, maybe a grumpy man.

But your mom is hilarious. Bless her.

 

[TontoK]

Agreed. She did not say “my scores were lower in relation to skaters ABC”, she reiterated that her scores were lower in relation to what she put out on the ice.

And in the same breath, she talked about putting a program on the ice that was only a month old.

Would her PCS have been higher had the program had more mileage and polish? Probably. Was the program of the same quality as it could have been? Almost certainly not.

Here is my conspiracy theory: Ashley probably picked up some vibes about about using two re-tread programs. After the SkAm situation, she decided to change the conversation by changing up the LP. I back up this theory by noting that after a "blah" score on her SP, she sold the idea of her fresh new LP, and how she couldn't wait to do another SP right after nationals.

Switching to LaLa so late in the season was a risk. And I like a risk-taker as much as much as the next man. But, sometimes risks don't pay off.

This time, it didn't pay off.

 

[waterblades]

Actually, I think it's really important to have the commentators to discuss underrotations on air. Underrotations can HUGELY impact a skater's score, but are difficult to spot for viewers who are unfamiliar with the sport, especially in real time and with the naked eye. Having Tara, Johnny and Terry discussing underrotations in their commentary manages audience expectations re: scoring and could help minimize a lot of audience confusion when skaters receive lower-than-expected scores after what appears to be a 'clean' skate. After all, what's the alternative? Casual viewers will just think the sport is rigged and will probably quit watching in disgust.

I personally really appreciated having Tara, Johnny and Terry discuss underrotations in detail, including zooming in on the skaters' feet, pausing the replay when the blade hits the ice, etc. It really helped my friends (casual viewers of figure skating) watching with me tonight understand the skaters' technical elements scores.

What I was saying is yes talk about it but do when you have the slow motion and can show why it's under rotated. Half the time they are talking over the performance and then just say basically the same thing again in the slow motion part.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

There are two Anastasia Gubanova’s....one skates in pairs. I think they changed it to Anastasiia to differentiate easier. Could be wrong though.

Ahhhh I see. I also noticed that Alexei Krasnozhon's name is written as Aleksei on the results page and in the protocols but I have seen it so many times as Alexei.

 

[readernick]

...but we're not going to pick someone for the team based on personality (or lack thereof), are we?

Why do some people not take skating seriously as a sport again?

This would be a fair argument if Karen were technically superior to Ashley (like Bradie Tennell) but look at her national and international protocols. She is not technically superior. She loves to pop and under-rotate like the best of American ladies

 

[frida80]

I am not sure. In 2014, did they offer the World's spot to Mirai but she declined? I know Mirai declined something that year.

No. They didn’t give Mirai anything but 4CC.

The could give Ashley a world slot, like they did Max Aaron in 2014 when he didn’t make the team.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well she is going to be billed as USA #1. Do you think it will take much effort?

Yeah that's fine. She is definitely US #1 due to her technical ability over the others. But the international judges are lukewarm to her artistically speaking. Her best PCS is 64-something at Skate America. Without any other international (eg 4CC) it's hard to justify it going up much higher... same goes for her GOE. Hence, she needs the USFS to go hard to bat for her. And it's not like she has Frank Carroll to politic for her like he must have done for Gracie last time to compel the judges to mark her way higher.

Bradie has put the USFS in a tough spot she is technically a saviour for them but artistically she's pretty average. Looking at her StSq I was just like "gurllll... thank god you've got jumps."

 

[kevinVchicago]

Send Bell, Chen, and Wagner to duke it out at 4CC.

 

[andromache]

Where did this come from? Putting Gracie's jacket into the trashcan is not a peverted act, maybe a grumpy man.

But your mom is hilarious. Bless her.

My mom doesn't even know about that because she only watches skating every four years. I don't even know.

 

[readernick]

Send Bell, Chen, and Wagner to duke it out at 4CC.

Love this idea. It would make them all better skaters. I made a similar comment earlier. But, I doubt the committee will do this.

 

[PyeongChang2018]

Ellen was not a nice person though. She was scared for her husband Chris, to go see Kim. Then again, that might fit Ashley.

The whole musical is entirely racist. Beautiful music, though.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Karen's PCS have not improved dramatically since being crowned US Champion last year. USA #1 doesn't mean that much. However, I think Bradie's PCS will improve because internationally skaters like Alina Zagitova (technically great, artistically ???) get good PCS because they are reliable and rotate jumps. Bradie does that.

Well in order for Karen's PCS marks to rise she would have to fix the obvious URs and stand up and land the jumps cleanly otherwise of course she wouldn't get a US Champion PCS bonus (although it did help her get 4th place at worlds). Her problems are too obvious to ignore that even the national judges couldn't turn a blind eye although they gave her the high PCS marks anyway. I guess US judges just like her more

 

[medoroa]

Absolutely nothing. But, that particular poster has a strange chip on his/her shoulder about Ashley Wagner. (so many negative posts about Ashley today and yesterday-- most of which can be proven incorrect by merely looking at historical facts.) Saying Karen Chen's PCS should be higher is not crazy ( it is a matter of personal taste, I think) but this particular poster has made all kinds of crazy unsubstantiated claims about Ashley. He/she needs to get another hobby.

I agree that there's been some, um, heated comments here about Wagner that weren't all deserved and certainly partly came from a place of personal dislike of her as a person... buuuuut I don't necessarily disagree with the junior skaters comment? Half the Japanese girls who just came up from juniors have better ice coverage than Wagner and the other half have more consistent jumps. Wagner has a lot of projection and should be rewarded for it and I wish (oh how I wish) female skaters of her age winning big events were the norm rather than the exception, but Wagner shouldn't be getting high PCS just for being a good performer.

 

[jenaj]

Yeah that's fine. She is definitely US #1 due to her technical ability over the others. But the international judges are lukewarm to her artistically speaking. Her best PCS is 64-something at Skate America. Without any other international (eg 4CC) it's hard to justify it going up much higher... same goes for her GOE. Hence, she needs the USFS to go hard to bat for her. And it's not like she has Frank Carroll to politic for her like he must have done for Gracie last time to compel the judges to mark her way higher.

Bradie has put the USFS in a tough spot she is technically a saviour for them but artistically she's pretty average. Looking at her StSq I was just like "gurllll... thank god you've got jumps."

The international judges never took to Polina. I think it will be the same with Bradie. She will have to skate perfect every time to get decent PCS, something no skater can do--not even Evgenia.

 

[IonGrey]

Chen vs. Wagner (Part 1/3)

So we all know that Chen eeked bronze just ahead of Wagner (2.43 points), so I thought it might be worth investigating to see if there is any suspicious judging. Now normally I wouldnt do this kind of analysis but seeing as this is for the 3rd Olympic berth its possible that there might be some foul play.

In order to be as impartial as possible, I'll ignore the component scores because they are highly subjective. However it is worth noting that Chen won every single category in PCS except for SS in the FP, which Wagner won by .04 points. Overall Chen beat Wagner by 2.44 pts in PCS, which is already equal to her victory margin. If the judging had gone the other way, we could be seeing Wagner instead of Chen right now.

So, let's talk technical. There are 3 categories to consider, due to length I'm going to post each separately.

Step Sequences

Both Wagner and Chen received L3 in both SP and LP. In what is going to become a recurring theme, Chen scores ever slightly higher than Wagner does, every single time.

StSq in SP: Chen +0.14
StSq in LP: Chen +0.08
ChSq in LP: Chen +0.6

The conclusion is that this is a bit suspicious, but that there is no real evidence that the judges specifically chose to inflate Chen's GOE or deflate Wagner's GOE. Its possible that the judges simply liked Chen's sequences better.

 

[waterblades]

Love this idea. It would make them all better skaters. I made a similar comment earlier. But, I doubt the committee will do this.

I think this is actually a smart idea, and could help all three be even better skaters. Let the international judges decide.

 

[TontoK]

Send Bell, Chen, and Wagner to duke it out at 4CC.

If I'm Karen Chen, I'm saying, "Dude, we JUST duked it out Wednesday and tonight. And I won. They lost. The end."

Seriously, it's not fair to just keep going double-or-nothing until the desired result is achieved.

 

[TCAngel18]

And in the same breath, she talked about putting a program on the ice that was only a month old.

Would her PCS have been higher had the program had more mileage and polish? Probably. Was the program of the same quality as it could have been? Almost certainly not.

Here is my conspiracy theory: Ashley probably picked up some vibes about about using two re-tread programs. After the SkAm situation, she decided to change the conversation by changing up the LP. I back up this theory by noting that after a "blah" score on her SP, she sold the idea of her fresh new LP, and how she couldn't wait to do another SP right after nationals.

Switching to LaLa so late in the season was a risk. And I like a risk-taker as much as much as the next man. But, sometimes risks don't pay off.

This time, it didn't pay off.

Oh, she definitely picked up the vibes, that’s why she went back to LLL. It wasn’t as perfect as it could have been, that’s why she mentioned the low mileage.

Her PCS would rise even more on it with a months more practice on it, definitely. She is 50/50 when it comes to TES rotation on that 3/3, but that’s really her only pain point when it comes to reputation on Underrotations.

However, Karen is now in the boat Mirai was in 2 years ago, where every jump gets looked at a 2nd time. She got that salad today, and she gets served salad often now. That’s not a quick fix, that needs at least a year to alter landing technique. Height and takeoff aren’t the issue.

Plus, her PCS will drop down to earth internationally. I keep using that word, but the Pyeongchang panel is an international panel, who has shown in every single competition up to this point, that Ashley has between a 6-11 point cushion on Karen, and less of a chance to receive multiple underrotations, and Ashley doesn’t get downgraded.

 

[waterblades]

Because they probably feel hurt that she hasn’t accepted 4CC assignments in the past, and that she should have skated hurt through Skate America, even though she made it clear that her goals were Nationals and Olympics. They would have preferred a pre-Comp withdrawal.

and risk getting further injured that just seems super petty.