I mentioned this regarding Satoko elsewhere, but I also think it applies to Vincent -- I think Vincent's jump technique is such that there is probably not consensus on how to determine whether his jumps are rotated. I mean how do you go from no URs in his Junior Worlds 2017 FS. Or from the olympics with just one UR to competitions where he has multiple URs.
In other words, Vincent's fate may be down to whoever the tech panel is, which is frustrating
I don’t think that’s the problem, frankly. Nor do I think it’s actually a “problem” — everyone is at the mercy of the tech panel. (Ask Boyang about WC17 and the calls in the men’s short.) I’d say the actual issue is that Vincent gives the tech panel a lot of material to work with, and his coaches are doing him a disservice by not preparing him for a massive TES drop in the time between his final pose and the announcement of his scores. It’s arguably not worth comparing UR calls from the junior level to senior or even doing a comparison with just one set of competitions, because tech panels can be notably lenient or strict, leading to the no UR calls at JWC versus now; watching the JGP, it also seems like the Juniors don’t get nearly as many UR calls, at least this season, even in cases where a downgrade would be more than justified. And the UR rules have tightened, so that’s another factour (I’d expect Vincent to get more UR calls from a non-asleep panel this season than in prior ones).
Satoko and Vincent have different issues. I don’t care for Satoko’s jumps, but I think she hides her UR issues better than most, despite being notorious for them. While Satoko isn’t my personal favourite, even I would never deny her skating skills and attention to choreography, which makes her jump issues less “distracting,” especially given her frankly ridiculous rotation speed. When Satoko URs, it doesn’t break up the programme or cause the performance to falter, as her jumps aren’t the highlight and nobody watches Satoko for a jump clinic. Vincent ... noticeably tenses up around the jumps, has scratchy landings, and really doesn’t have the skating skills or performance chops to sell the programme when the jumps aren’t there — and if we’re being honest, the jumps have rarely been there. He’s had times when he’s been somewhat improved but he’s never been known for having exceptional jumps (except in terms of BV).
If you want to make an argument about URs being too costly under the updated scoring system, I’d probably agree — I’ve never been in love with the idea that you can lose half your BV on a fall, and the BV reduction for URs is a much steeper penalty now that BV is lower. As soon as we started getting details on the system, I said TES was going to be volatile, and we’re seeing skaters lose 7 points after they leave the ice. Which has its pros and cons, but if you’re planning a programme for Vincent, it’s arguably worth rethinking whether or not to go for the 4Lz and 4F, solo and in combination, if you think there’s a >=50% chance that it’s going to tagged as UR (especially with Vincent’s flip edge issues). If you crunch the numbers, it’s the 3Lz that received the biggest change in terms of max score — and the 3Lz was Vincent’s best scoring element at Skate America.
I think Vincent’s main issue, beyond the URs, is the lack of positive features overall in his elements. His URs lead to scratchy landings, which eliminates potential for a positive feature/positive GOE bullet, and even on his better jumps, I’d argue it’s impossible to get to more than +3, more likely +2. Vincent lives in a GOE range that’s mostly negative and caps at the low end for positives; with BV being lowered and tied to GOE, that’s a lot of points he’s not able to pick up and has the potential to lose, and he can’t make them up with the BV of the 4Lz and the 4F any longer.
Being brutally honest: I don’t think Vincent was ever all that good, but having the 4Lz and 4F gave him enough technical firepower to score well and be a stable pick for “the US guy who isn’t Nathan Chen” for scoring purposes. (Of course, see WC17.) But that’s not the same as actually being a complete skater, and the men’s field has been so thin that a guy with the two hardest quads (even if UR’d) was good enough when the US was struggling to field a competitive team. With Alex K. now in Seniors, however, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see Vincent drop to the third wheel of the US Men’s team, as Alex has... far fewer issues overall, stronger fundamentals (skating skills), and better positive scoring potential. And I have more faith in some of the US Junior men than Vincent, largely due to Vincent’s non-jump issues and propensity for headcasing. He has time to make improvements, but not that much time, and he has a
lot to improve beyond just the jump issues. Even if he were getting 0 to +1/2 GOE on all his jumps, he’d still be bleeding points in his spins, StSq, choreographer sequence, and PCS.