2018-19 U.S. Men’s figure skating

[moonvine]

It looks like Jason skated better in the free but, to see him finish in 6th is disappointing. Better luck at his next event.

I thought he did pretty well considering where he started. He pulled up several places.

 

[ice coverage]

Just noticed that 29th Winter Universiade (Krasnoyarsk, Russia; March 7-12, 2019) is listed on this season's USFS assignments page.
(Apologies if I am the last to know.)

The last few editions of Winter Universiade have taken place in Jan-Feb, so I wonder whether the later scheduling has anything to do with USFS (apparently/potentially?) assigning skaters this season?

Hope one or more U.S. scholar/athletes get a chance to compete at Universiade.

(Mentioning in this thread because I could not think of a more suitable one.)

---

... Out of those currently competing, only Nathan has beaten Vincent in domestic/international competition (I don't know Ross Miner's status and Max Aaron, who, incidentally has beat Vincent, 3-1, in their face-to-face matchups last season, is retired). Jason Brown has yet to beat Vincent domestically and none of the junior skaters have beat Vincent either. Vincent will face Alexander Johnson at NHK Trophy, which means he won't see Jason, Camden or Tomoki until U.S. Nationals.

BTW, Jimmy Ma (third) did beat Vincent (fourth) at 2018 U.S. Classic.

(Sorry if I missed a later mention in the thread.

I have no desire to pile on against Vincent, whom I like :yes:, but want to give Jimmy, whom I also like :yes:, his due.

Lest anyone wonder: I am not saying that Mrs. P is against Vincent.)

 

[skylark]

Like I said: assuming he podiums at Nats, he’s fine. If he doesn’t, I think he’s still fine due to how many of the US men are either untested or seen as inconsistent. But Zhou may be sliding into the inconsistent group himself, and if he finishes off the podium, who knows? I think the modal outcome is one in which Zhou is on the team, but if Krasnozhon has a better GP season than Zhou and Nats is a bloodbath, Zhou may be on the team as the “backseat” member, not his usual “Chen’s driving, I call shotgun” spot.

I'm late to this party, but I love your analogy.

Alexei is my favorite of the up-and-coming men. And as far as a particular style of skating goes, I hope he goes in the direction of his Rodeo by Aaron Copeland from a couple of seasons back. He expressed so much joy, and he has the Texas cowboy vibe, and I mean that in a good way. Well, he's been living in Texas for a while.

Adam Rippon is the very best man we had for not letting a program fall apart when he missed a jump. That 4Lz, he did it at the beginning because he wanted to, and sometimes he landed it, too, with a little UR. It was SO worth the risk, because he immediately forgot about it and turned his mind and emotions to making the program beautiful. Not everyone can do that, and it's hard if you're a perfectionist, but Adam did it brilliantly.

 

[princessalica]

I'm late to this party, but I love your analogy.

Alexei is my favorite of the up-and-coming men. And as far as a particular style of skating goes, I hope he goes in the direction of his Rodeo by Aaron Copeland from a couple of seasons back. He expressed so much joy, and he has the Texas cowboy vibe, and I mean that in a good way. Well, he's been living in Texas for a while.

Adam Rippon is the very best man we had for not letting a program fall apart when he missed a jump. That 4Lz, he did it at the beginning because he wanted to, and sometimes he landed it, too, with a little UR. It was SO worth the risk, because he immediately forgot about it and turned his mind and emotions to making the program beautiful. Not everyone can do that, and it's hard if you're a perfectionist, but Adam did it brilliantly.

I just watched Alex's SP from Regionals. He fell twice, so clearly a rough skate, but I was impressed with how even after those disasters he still skated that program all out with such enthusiasm. I love watching him skate!

 

[skylark]

I just watched Alex's SP from Regionals. He fell twice, so clearly a rough skate, but I was impressed with how even after those disasters he still skated that program all out with such enthusiasm. I love watching him skate!

So do I. And here's his Rodeo FS from 2017 nationals. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTDBtZeFUBA

 

[Skater Boy]

Jason's skating quality at this poinit may be the best in the world with Chan and skaters like Ten and Fernandez gone. However, his jumping issues are worse than Chan's and he isn't as good skater so he is in trouble. We will have to wait maybe tos ee what haappens in Toronto but people and maybe judges will tire of waiting. He has been working on that quad for over two seasons. He has a great look with the ponytail gone and wonderful skating skills but those jumps. He isn't even clean with just triples.

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason's skating quality at this poinit may be the best in the world with Chan and skaters like Ten and Fernandez gone. However, his jumping issues are worse than Chan's and he isn't as good skater so he is in trouble. We will have to wait maybe tos ee what haappens in Toronto but people and maybe judges will tire of waiting. He has been working on that quad for over two seasons. He has a great look with the ponytail gone and wonderful skating skills but those jumps. He isn't even clean with just triples.

But he's working on quads (and even triples) with new technique, so it's not the same way he's been doing it for the last two years. His 3A looked really good in practices, and the only time he missed it was in his SP and in popping the second 3A combo into combo.

https://vimeo.com/297801848

As to being sick of waiting, judges should judge what he actually does on a given day. Under that logic, judges should have given up on many other skaters who took "longer" to get it together.

It's worth noting that as of right now, Jason still has the second highest overall score among the U.S, men at the moment. In the context of U.S. men, there are lots of men who can vie for three world spots (and last year is a big lesson that nothing is guaranteed) but Jason definitely still has a good shot to get there.

 

[century2009]

I think the last 2 spots (because Nathan Chen is automatic) is going to be among Vincent, Jason, and Alex.

I would like these 3 men to be competitive internationally, but it feels like they are really struggling, and dont see anything this season for any of them.

Jason - I dont expect him to have a quad this season, and on that note, I dont have any expectation for him this season to actually do well internationally. Even without the quads, Jason is not consistent and cant break through all these years. Once he actually has a quad, he needs to be consistent and actually do well in the event.

Even Adam, who did not really have a quad, was consistent. It feels more mental that is the problem with Jason.

Vincent - Maybe he should just focus on 2 good quads so he does not underrotates. But I think Vincent technique is not working, and dont have any hope with his coaching team to take him to the next level to even be competitive internationally. It feels like there is a lot of problems with him, and still did not adjust/fix them. We will see in the next event if he listened to the judges.

Alex - New to the playing field but I am still trying to figure out what he has to offer. It is too early to tell, but I dont see anything yet. It will be a climb for him, and if he gets the 3rd spot, it is because others failed.

 

[bennorii]

I think the last 2 spots (because Nathan Chen is automatic) is going to be among Vincent, Jason, and Alex.

I would like these 3 men to be competitive internationally, but it feels like they are really struggling, and dont see anything this season for any of them.

Jason - I dont expect him to have a quad this season, and on that note, I dont have any expectation for him this season to actually do well internationally. Even without the quads, Jason is not consistent and cant break through all these years. Once he actually has a quad, he needs to be consistent and actually do well in the event.

Even Adam, who did not really have a quad, was consistent. It feels more mental that is the problem with Jason.

Vincent - Maybe he should just focus on 2 good quads so he does not underrotates. But I think Vincent technique is not working, and dont have any hope with his coaching team to take him to the next level to even be competitive internationally. It feels like there is a lot of problems with him, and still did not adjust/fix them. We will see in the next event if he listened to the judges.

Alex - New to the playing field but I am still trying to figure out what he has to offer. It is too early to tell, but I dont see anything yet. It will be a climb for him, and if he gets the 3rd spot, it is because others failed.

I think Alex is a great skater, but I really don't understand why he is hyped all the time. I understand that he has titles, but right now, I would honestly put Camden over Alex in the pecking order for competition for the 3rd spot. Maybe Alex will solidify his place as the number 4 U.S. man this week in Helsinki...

 

[Metis]

I'm late to this party, but I love your analogy.

Alexei is my favorite of the up-and-coming men. And as far as a particular style of skating goes, I hope he goes in the direction of his Rodeo by Aaron Copeland from a couple of seasons back. He expressed so much joy, and he has the Texas cowboy vibe, and I mean that in a good way. Well, he's been living in Texas for a while.

Adam Rippon is the very best man we had for not letting a program fall apart when he missed a jump. That 4Lz, he did it at the beginning because he wanted to, and sometimes he landed it, too, with a little UR. It was SO worth the risk, because he immediately forgot about it and turned his mind and emotions to making the program beautiful. Not everyone can do that, and it's hard if you're a perfectionist, but Adam did it brilliantly.

I do what I can to amuse. [emoji23] (Let’s face it: Chen is The Team and backpacking everyone else right now.)

I think Alex has the most drive and competitive fire of the up and comers, on top of being battle-tested, which is why I have somewhat high hopes for him? His attempts at emoting can be clunky and he isn’t necessarily the “best” at anything, but lack of a weakness is a real strength in the US field.

Jason could go either way — I’m reserving judgment on his progress until more time has passed at TCC, but in a game of buy/sell/hold, I’d buy Jason’s stock until I was majority owner and short Vincent’s. I also think the new GOE range needs more time before we know where Jason stands. If judges really are going to award clean programmes of only excellent triples with high GOE and PCS, he could be in a very good position, as the PCS caps for programmes with falls or “serious errors” mean that points lost in TES can’t be made up in PCS. But we don’t have enough data points yet, as the Challenger events have been kooky and we need more of the top men to do their first and second GP events. I’m holding off on preliminary evaluation of Jason until we’re close to the GPF, really.

I do think Vincent is in real trouble, however, as it seems the Skate America tech panel was not an anomaly. And he does get a warning/! on his flip fairly consistently, which is -1 to -3 GOE, without earning enough positive GOE bullets to offset the deductions. He could keep the 4Lz<(<) and swap the 4F for a 4T? Does he have a 4T? Outside of the Axel, he pretty much sticks to toe jumps, so I assume he has a 4T.

The new judging system does make me miss Adam. If we really do get to a point where a clean triples-only programme is competitive with a splatted quad layout... man, Adam would have been amazing. Maybe he can come back and coach spin class for the US men (and livestream it). With the exception of Jason, the US men are rather yeesh in their spins.

 

[el henry]

I’m sorry, but Adam more consistent than Jason???

For the last quad, up until 2017-18, Jason was extraordinarily consistent, and on average, scored better ETA: bad grammar, let’s say higher) than Adam.

Last season, Jason “regressed” and it was a bad year for him to lose that consistency :disapp: And I say that as someone who enjoyed Adam’s skating (although I must be the only person in the world who could not stand the broken bird program)

I would love to see Jason’s consistency return, but in a new training environment I’m not sure that will happen. :think:

 

[SnowWhite]

I think the last 2 spots (because Nathan Chen is automatic) is going to be among Vincent, Jason, and Alex.

I would like these 3 men to be competitive internationally, but it feels like they are really struggling, and dont see anything this season for any of them.

Jason - I dont expect him to have a quad this season, and on that note, I dont have any expectation for him this season to actually do well internationally. Even without the quads, Jason is not consistent and cant break through all these years. Once he actually has a quad, he needs to be consistent and actually do well in the event.

Even Adam, who did not really have a quad, was consistent. It feels more mental that is the problem with Jason.

Vincent - Maybe he should just focus on 2 good quads so he does not underrotates. But I think Vincent technique is not working, and dont have any hope with his coaching team to take him to the next level to even be competitive internationally. It feels like there is a lot of problems with him, and still did not adjust/fix them. We will see in the next event if he listened to the judges.

Alex - New to the playing field but I am still trying to figure out what he has to offer. It is too early to tell, but I dont see anything yet. It will be a climb for him, and if he gets the 3rd spot, it is because others failed.

Jason has been inconsistent recently - last season and this one. That wasn't really true before that however.

As for Alex, the biggest thing right now is working his way back from his injury. Because he was much stronger last season. I think his best quality is his competitiveness and grit. Watching him last year in juniors, he was really good at fighting for jumps when they weren't quite working and not letting it get away from him. I never felt nervous watching him (except for when he hurt his ankle of course). He also had good 3Lz-3Lo and 3F-3Lo combos, and his 3A was solid. As the men go, he had consistency. This off-season sounds pretty rough for him, in terms of how much he was able to do with the injury, so I'm looking to see how he looks later in the season. I also wonder if getting injured that badly in competition will be in his head at all. If he's back to where he was last year (his SB was 236.35 at the JGPF in the old system), he still won't be ahead of Jason or Vincent if they do well, but it wouldn't take a complete fail for him to get ahead of one of them. But he's pretty far from that right now.

 

[skylark]

In the comments section of TSL's Skate Canada discussion, there's a really great analysis of Jason's long-range strategy. I can't read it again to say anything further -- I'm about to take my Halloween-b'day spouse to birthday dinner. But I remember how impressed I was with that commenter's analysis.

 

[sheetz]

I'm really curious to see how far along Alexei is in his recovery. His planned program content for GP Finland indicates that he'll be going for 4S in both his short and long programs.

 

[century2009]

I'm really curious to see how far along Alexei is in his recovery. His planned program content for GP Finland indicates that he'll be going for 4S in both his short and long programs.

He needs too. If he has 2 different quads, he should give it a go because he wont be competitive at all.

 

[Ice Dance]

He needs too. If he has 2 different quads, he should give it a go because he wont be competitive at all.

He's never had one clean quad. He's been trying the quad loop the last several seasons, sometimes getting it ratified but always either with a fall or a UR. If he completes the sal cleanly that would be a great step forward for him. Though he's been on the road back from injury, and just a solid skate would also be a great step forward for him right now.

 

[century2009]

Alexei has potential and the costumes are better, but without a quad he gets buried in the standing like Jason.

He needs to be softer a bit as he tends to be rugged at the ice. But a good showing to be clean.

His PCs are really low and will take years to rise, so he should focus on doing quads to make any impact internationally. At least 2 is needed and probably 4 when you are facing Nathan, Shoma, and Hanyu.

 

[Ice Dance]

I think Vincent is competitive. It's easy to fixate on how much his scores dropped at Skate America; but he was miles better than he was at the U.S. Classic. I think people forget this. And historically, Vincent has gotten his rotations around more as the season goes on. He's not cracked the Hanyu/Shoma/Nathan/sometimes-Jin zone. But Vincent's not far off the mark when he's at his best, and he is still growing as a performer. I have no problem factoring him in with Kolyada, Aliev, Cha. And any of those guys can medal on a particularly brutal day for the uppermost tier. Vincent is ambitious. I like that about him. He may indeed need to rework his format, but he has enough titles to tell me he has the mental wherewithal for competition. (As much as most guys, that is).

I do not think Vincent is like Nathan. Nathan goes out and goes after the very highest mark he can. He's a competitor so he doesn't always bring every jump to the table; but he trains to win. He's been after Hanyu from day one, but he's done it his way and by doing more than what anyone else was doing. Nathan leads.

Vincent has always chased. But he's had a very high bar to chase all these years, and I think he is capable of being competitive. It may not happen this season. I feel like he's really had some challenges this summer and this may be one of those tough learning & developing years. But if he sticks with it, I think his scoring & competitive potential is better than most.

Of the other young guys, I like Tomoki the best. He has an axel & a quad, skating skills, and musicality. I don't know if he'll develop into the type of solid competitor it takes; but he has his brilliant moments. It also takes more than 1 quad to be competitive these days. But still, among the young U.S. guys who are not named Nathan or Vincent, he has the most pieces.

I love Jason's skating. I do not love Jason's programs at all this season. I want him to go home and see what he could score under this new system with two fabulous Jason-style programs. Or to hire Shae-Lynn to give him some material that maximizes his strengths. Maybe we will get it eventually. I've never expected a quad from him, but I respect his expectation of it for himself. I respect his desire to be competitive four years out. I hope he will surpass my expectations technically. But most of all, I want the Jason back that stuns artistically. That Jason could/should, IMO, currently defeat all but Nathan & Vincent in the U.S. field. Four years from now, though, maybe not. So I respect what Jason is trying to do.

 

[karne]

I think Vincent is competitive. It's easy to fixate on how much his scores dropped at Skate America; but he was miles better than he was at the U.S. Classic. I think people forget this. And historically, Vincent has gotten his rotations around more as the season goes on.

Yes, that's totally why he got called for seven URs at Worlds. And four at US Nationals. Because the UR problem got better.

I think while Vincent's coaches would rather complain about bogus "harsh calling", there's very little hope of that problem going away.

 

[oatmella]

Vincent was injured at Worlds and in quite a lot of pain ...

Seems a bit unfair to use that as an example of his UR problem