2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[ice coverage]

I take it as the opposite: that Nationals was the most important criteria (otherwise Mariah would have been first alternate because her body of work is undeniably stronger). Mariah won Skate America (the only other competition they had this year) while Amber finished in 5th, and Mariah had the stronger season last year. ...

When USFS chose alternates for 2021 Worlds, it did not judge Mariah's body of work to be undeniably stronger.
And the only opinion that really matters is the opinion of USFS.

Yes, the current year of Nats results always is one of the very top "body of work" criteria in USFS selection procedures -- which always place greater importance on the current year of Nats than on the current season of GP results.
If 2020 Worlds and 2020/21 GPF had taken place, they also would have been in the very top criteria for USFS selection procedures for 2021 Worlds.

As usual, no results further back than 2020 Nats were criteria for 2021 Worlds selection procedures.
And as usual, 2020 Nats results were one of the lowest criteria.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

When USFS chose alternates for 2021 Worlds, it did not judge Mariah's body of work to be undeniably stronger.

I don't think this is the case. Rather, I believe that the margin between Karen and Mariah at Nationals, two places and 15 points, was too far for Mariah's superior body of work to matter. It's very different than Ashley and Mirai in 2014, when Ashley finished only one place and 8 points behind Mirai and had a much stronger body of work.

 

[ice coverage]

When I refer to "body of work," I mean the *entire* body of work -- including 2021 Nats plus all previous events that USFS lists in its selection criteria.

And I believed that chuckm was doing the same in the post to which I originally replied?
(In hindsight: Sorry if I was wrong in how I understood your post, chuckm.)

IMO Amber has to do well internationally as well next season to earn a berth to Beijing. Amber was 9th at 2000 4CC, 5th at 2021 SA (in a mostly US field) and 7th and 6th at 2019 SA and 2019 CoC. Her BOW doesn't begin to compare with Bradie's and Mariah's, who have both earned many GP and Challenger medals.

But unlike me, do some people (other than USFS) use "body of work" to mean only events named in USFS criteria that took place before 2021 Nats -- in other words, excluding 2021 Nats itself???
That is the impression that I am starting to get.

And/or ... is it possible that some people (other than USFS) use "body of work" to mean only international events???

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ETA:

AFAIK, when USFS uses the term "body of work," it is referring to *all* events listed in its selection procedures, including Nats of the current year. Excerpt from 2021 Worlds selection procedures (emphases added):

The performance data provided to the International Committee to enhance their discussion for the selection of the athletes/teams will include competition results and other reports/data relating to detailed results sheets of the competitions listed in priority order in section 1.2. The data derived from the detailed result sheets from the events as outlined in 1.2 will provide a body of work within a twelve-month period that will demonstrate the athlete’s/team’s consistency and ability to achieve medal potential scores at the 2021 World Championships. The data will be a primary focus on discussing the ranking of the athletes/teams and determining who will be the best athletes that will have the most performance impact at the 2021 World Championships.​

The events listed in Section 1.2 include 2021 U.S. Nats as well as previous events:

1. 2021 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
2. 2020 Grand Prix Series Competitions
3. 2020 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
4. 2020 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
5. 2020 Senior ISP Points Challenge
6. 2020 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
7. 2020 Junior ISP Points Challenge​

That is why for me, the choice of Amber for first alternate over Mariah indicates that USFS believes that as of now, Amber's body of work (again, including 2021 Nats) is a notch above Mariah's.

(I previously had not been discussing Karen at all, but by the same token, I would say that USFS believes that as of now, Karen's body of work [including 2021 Nats] is above both Amber's and Mariah's.)​

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

(I previously had not been discussing Karen at all, but by the same token, I would say that USFS believes that as of now, Karen's body of work [including 2021 Nats] is above both Amber's and Mariah's.)​

Oops, I misread your original post. But I think people do consider 2021 Nationals as part of the "body of work" when we're discussing assignments here. We have 2020 Skate America, which is less important than Nationals but an event where Mariah won and Karen and Amber didn't even medal. There is 2020 Nationals, where Mariah won the silver well ahead of Karen and Amber. There was 2020 4CC where Karen and Amber were both far from the podium; Mariah didn't compete there because she was preparing for Worlds. Is there any sort of penalty for disappointing performances like we saw from Karen and Amber at 4CC, or do we only consider their strongest results?

Between Amber and Mariah, I think it's the same situation as Mariah vs Karen in which you have to ask whether the one Nationals result (where both were well ahead of Mariah) outweigh every other event considered (where Mariah was well ahead of the other two). So I don't agree that saying arguing for a body of work nod for Mariah is ignoring 2021 Nationals; rather, it's a question of how much you weigh that one result against the others.

 

[ice coverage]

... But I think people do consider 2021 Nationals as part of the "body of work" when we're discussing assignments here. ...

So I don't agree that saying arguing for a body of work nod for Mariah is ignoring 2021 Nationals; rather, it's a question of how much you weigh that one result against the others.

OK, thanks for your reply. So what is happening is that people are expressing opinions that do include 2021 Nats about whose body of work is better or worse.
And of course, I get that it is possible to be in disagreement with how USFS sees things.

[I guess I am beating a dead horse, but what I still do not get is kirauza343's comment that compared to Amber's body of work, Mariah's was "undeniably stronger." The word at issue for me is "undeniably." USFS (the actual decision-making authority) evidently did not think that Mariah's body of work was stronger than Amber's. Even if some (or many?) people disagree with USFS, it cannot be said that Mariah's BOW was "undeniably" stronger than Amber's.]

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

[I guess I am beating a dead horse, but what I still do not get is kirauza343's comment that compared to Amber's body of work, Mariah's was "undeniably stronger." The word at issue for me is "undeniably." USFS (the actual decision-making authority) evidently did not think that Mariah's body of work was stronger than Amber's.]

I mean, the choices are Amber's is stronger, Mariah's is stronger, or they're the same. I don't recall Amber ever beating Mariah, within or outside the window of events to consider, aside from 2021 Nationals. From that perspective, I do think it's fair to characterize Mariah's body of work as "undeniably" stronger, both in placements and posting consistently high scores. I just think the USFS felt that the 5th place result, quite a bit behind those who finished ahead of her, as disqualifying, regardless of previous results.

 

[Amei]

OK, thanks for your reply. So what is happening is that people are expressing opinions that do include 2021 Nats about whose body of work is better or worse.
And of course, I get that it is possible to be in disagreement with how USFS sees things.

[I guess I am beating a dead horse, but what I still do not get is kirauza343's comment that compared to Amber's body of work, Mariah's was "undeniably stronger." The word at issue for me is "undeniably." USFS (the actual decision-making authority) evidently did not think that Mariah's body of work was stronger than Amber's. Even if some (or many?) people disagree with USFS, it cannot be said that Mariah's BOW was "undeniably" stronger than Amber's.]

Well I think something that is possible is that the decision makers don't ignore the totality of the skater's career - Mariah Bell (though not alone) was on the US worlds team whose poor performance led to the loss of the 3rd spot, and while yes last season she was very consistent and got the bronze at her GP events, that was 1 season, her career isn't so fabulous that to me you can ignore a meltdown performance at at an event where she was considered the front-runner to win - that's when that ability to perform under pressure question comes up

 

[ice coverage]

I mean, the choices are Amber's is stronger, Mariah's is stronger, or they're the same. I don't recall Amber ever beating Mariah, within or outside the window of events to consider, aside from 2021 Nationals. From that perspective, I do think it's fair to characterize Mariah's body of work as "undeniably" stronger. I just think the USFS felt that the 5th place result, quite a bit behind those who finished ahead of her, as disqualifying, regardless of previous results.

Per USFS selection procedures:

The names of the top five athletes/teams at the current U.S. Figure Skating Championships will be automatically placed into the pool of athletes/teams being considered for the World Team, if eligible.​

So I see no reason to believe that Mariah's fifth place at Nats by itself was disqualifying.

Also: 2020 Four Continents was one of the selection criteria. Karen placed seventh, Amber placed ninth, and Mariah did not compete.
When some athletes have results from a certain event and another does not, it is not clear to me how USFS handles the situation in terms of team selection.
Just my two cents re a possible approach re team selection:

If 2020 Worlds had taken place, I think it would have been fair for Mariah to receive "credit" for her results there -- whereas Karen and Amber would not have eligible to receive any credit.​

Similarly, I think it would have been fair for Karen and Amber to receive "credit" for their results at Four Continents -- whereas Mariah would not have been eligible to receive any credit.​

IIRC, for team selection, USFS considers the current season's GPs and the previous season's Four Continents to be in the same "tier" of importance. I do not think that there would be much difference in weighting between Skate America as an event and Four Continents as an event.

There was 2020 4CC where Karen and Amber were both far from the podium; Mariah didn't compete there because she was preparing for Worlds. Is there any sort of penalty for disappointing performances like we saw from Karen and Amber at 4CC, or do we only consider their strongest results?

At 2020 Four Continents, Karen earned personal bests across the board: for SP, for FS, and for total score.
Amber earned personal bests for FS and for total score.
I am not so sure that USFS would have considered their performances to be "disappointing"?

 

[kirauza343]

OK, thanks for your reply. So what is happening is that people are expressing opinions that do include 2021 Nats about whose body of work is better or worse.
And of course, I get that it is possible to be in disagreement with how USFS sees things.

[I guess I am beating a dead horse, but what I still do not get is kirauza343's comment that compared to Amber's body of work, Mariah's was "undeniably stronger." The word at issue for me is "undeniably." USFS (the actual decision-making authority) evidently did not think that Mariah's body of work was stronger than Amber's. Even if some (or many?) people disagree with USFS, it cannot be said that Mariah's BOW was "undeniably" stronger than Amber's.]

I will say that I consider Nationals to be separate from a skater’s general body of work, which is part of why I say Mariah’s is without a doubt better (Skate America win plus a better last season). At least in the sense of the current Nationals not being part of it. My interpretation has always been that National placements are the first priority for team selection, followed by how they did in the rest of their competitions in case of a close result/a favorite just barely missing the podium/top 2.

This is admittedly a weird season so there isn’t much of a body of work this season for anyone. My assumption when talking Mariah vs Amber is taking last season into consideration, where Mariah’s results were objectively better.

And it’s possible that USFS thinks Mariah’s body of work is stronger but that her falling apart under pressure and finishing so far behind Amber meant they couldn’t trust her at Worlds with the pressure of trying to earn three spots for Beijing. It’s also giving Amber the nod for her second place finish to have her as first alternate. Amber winning silver but being stuck as the second alternate would’ve been pretty crappy.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

At 2020 Four Continents, Karen earned personal bests across the board: for SP, for FS, and for total score.
Amber earned personal bests for FS and for total score.
I am not so sure that USFS would have considered their performances to be "disappointing"?

The personal best scores need context. They were good enough for 7th (Karen) and 9th (Amber) at 4CC. Mariah topped those personal best scores at each of the three international events she skated last season, and Skate America this season. I'm a bit surprised you're using Amber's 4CC score of 190 to suggest she has a stronger body of work than Mariah.

 

[ice coverage]

... I'm a bit surprised you're using Amber's 4CC score of 190 to suggest she has a stronger body of work than Mariah.

Either you are joking or you have not been paying attention.
After my extensive postings above, it should be more than obvious that Four Continents scores were only a very minor part of my discussions.

---

I will say that I consider Nationals to be separate from a skater’s general body of work, which is part of why I say Mariah’s is without a doubt better (Skate America win plus a better last season). ...

OK, so you are using the term "body of work" in a different way than USFS does.

While it is true that Mariah had a better 2019-20 season than Karen and Amber, I will note again that for 2021 Worlds team selection, the only events from the 2019-20 season that counted (and as events not of highest priority) were 2020 Four Continents and 2020 Nats -- assuming that USFS did not deviate from its published selection procedures, which the USFS board approved in Aug 2020.
GPs from the 2019-20 season did not count at all, so Mariah's stronger GP results from then were immaterial.

---

Similarly, if USFS does not modify its already published 2022 OWG selection procedures (also from Aug 2020), then the only events from the 2020-21 season that will count are 2021 Worlds and 2021 Nats.
2020 Skate America will not count.

So in terms of body of work -- especially if 2021 Worlds go forward without last-minute cancellation -- it will be Bradie and Karen who will begin the Olympic season with a head start over Amber and Mariah.

I like Mariah, and I have posted many favorable comments about her in the past.
I attended 2020 Nats, and I was thrilled to see her FS and to give her a standing ovation.
But no matter how much I like her, it is my opinion that with its choices for the World team and alternates, USFS has "spoken" as to where she stands at present.
As I said before, I wish Amber, Mariah, and all U.S. ladies well as they build their cases for 2022 OWG team selection.

 

[saturdaysun]

While I do agree Mariah's 5th place finish disqualified her from the Worlds conversation immediately, I think we also have to remember 2021 Nats wasn't exactly a fluke. Mariah has struggled all season, but USFS also kept overscoring her at every turn, even at Skate America, in anticipation that she would be crowned their #1 lady this year. Nats was a culmination of the jumping issues she had been having all season. Go back and watch the ISP Challenges to see what I mean. Meanwhile, Amber has looked stronger than previous years all season, culminating in a strong performance at Nats. Yeah it's just one season, but like ice_coverage said, they basically only look at one season for Worlds/Olympics anyway.

 

[macy]

yes the USFSA has rules and guidelines on who will technically be placed into consideration for worlds and what they look at for body of work, but when it comes down to it they're going to do whatever they want. if they wanted Amber on the team they would have done it. if they wanted Mariah on the team they would have done it. you can try to justify their decisions by the book but do you really think the fed is doing that? no.

 

[ice coverage]

... you can try to justify their decisions by the book ...

If you are referring to me, you have missed my original and primary point -- which is not about justifying anything.

What I have been discussing is mostly a matter of pragmatism: that I take the USFS decision as an indication of how ladies currently stack up in the eyes of the USFS.
The USFS decision re 2021 Worlds essentially "denied" that Mariah's BOW is stronger than Amber's -- according to the parameters designated by USFS (which include 2021 Nats).
Even if a billion people who are not members of the USFS selection committee were to believe nonetheless that Mariah's is "undeniably" stronger (according to either the same parameters or different ones) or that Amber's "does not begin to compare with" Mariah's ... those billion non-members will not be selecting the team for 2022 OWG. The USFS committee once again will select the team. (And USFS once again has set the parameters.)

I would add that going by the book in this discussion does not inherently mean going against Mariah. I quoted from the selection procedures to support my disagreement with the theory from others that Mariah's fifth place at 2021 Nats was automatically disqualifying.

yes the USFSA has rules and guidelines on who will technically be placed into consideration for worlds and what they look at for body of work, but when it comes down to it they're going to do whatever they want. ...

My point of view:

Although there is wiggle room within the USFS selection procedures (as to which specific pieces of data in the protocols are considered more important than others; what the specific weighting of different events is; etc.), I do not believe that the USFS selection committee disregards the procedures.​

But for the sake of discussion:

Even if(???) the USFS selection committee completely disregarded the procedures, its decision was to choose Amber as first alternate over Mariah.​

As a matter of pragmatism, I still would take the USFS decision as an indication of how ladies currently stack up in the eyes of the USFS.​

---

---

Changing the subject :

FWIW, Isabeau Levito is on the entry lists for Senior Ladies at this week's Denver Invitational.
SP on Friday (tomorrow); FS on Saturday.Good luck to all!

ETA (on Mar 13):

Friday's archived livestream: https://vimeo.com/522641289

Six-minute warm-up for first group of Senior Ladies SP begins at approx. 5:23:45.

Isabeau's program (third in first group) starts at approx. 5:40:40.​

Saturday's archived livestream: https://vimeo.com/523034832

Six-minute warm-up for second group of Senior Ladies FS begins at approx. 7:51:55.

Isabeau's program (last in second group) starts at approx. 8:12:15.

In the FS, Isabeau attempted a quad toe. (Downgraded, with a fall.)​

Denver Invitational did not have a combined event, but FWIW, the sum of Isabeau's SP+FS scores easily would have placed sixth in Senior Ladies at 2021 Nats. (Obviously just a ballpark comparison.)​

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

As a matter of pragmatism, I still would take the USFS decision as an indication of how ladies currently stack up in the eyes of the USFS.​

I agree with this. That the USFSA picked Amber over Mariah, I think, reflects both their current form and the Nationals result only. I don't think it follows that the USFSA believes Amber has a stronger body of work; if you put their records side-by-side, scores and placements, and ask 100 people which record is stronger, I'd honestly be surprised if any would pick Amber's. It's not close at all. Mariah may not be a skater right now who can score 205-210 internationally, but that has nothing to do with her previous body of work where she posted those scores regularly.

 

[ice coverage]

... Mariah may not be a skater right now who can score 205-210 internationally, but that has nothing to do with her previous body of work where she posted those scores regularly.

Mariah had no results from bona fide internationals that counted toward the body of work that determined USFS selection for 2021 Worlds -- because she did not compete at 2020 Four Continents.
Results from the quasi-international 2020 Skate America counted, and results from domestic events counted.
2021 Nats counted (with highest importance, as stated by USFS), and nothing further back than 2020 Nats (with low importance, as stated by USFS) counted.

And as I said before, 2020 Skate America will not count toward 2022 OWG team selection.
Nothing further back than 2021 Nats will count (assuming that USFS does not revise the already-published 2022 OWG selection procedures).

I am by no means saying that Mariah is doomed regarding 2022 OWG selection.
2022 Nats and 2021 GPF will count with highest importance (along with 2021 Worlds for Bradie and Karen).
2021 GPs and 2021 Challengers also will count.

We are have been going around in circles now ... I will try to stop.

 

[Thrashergurl]

Unfortunately Mariah regressed this season. Her programs were awful. She struggled to land her jumps and she was just off. Bradie, Amber and Karen have all shown improvements. Karen, when she is on, is a beautiful skater. Mariah has some work to do. I think even she knows that. I don’t think it’s her fault she was being pushed by USFSA, nor do I think it was a mistake per say. She had the momentum last season. She was getting stronger with every competition. She beat the reigning Olympic Champion in the free skate!! That’s huge for an American girl. Unfortunately Covid happened, and we don’t know how her training was. Let’s hope the US gets 3 spots for the Olympics, but if they don’t then life goes on.

 

[Lzbee]

Mariah had no results from bona fide internationals that counted toward the body of work that determined USFS selection for 2021 Worlds -- because she did not compete at 2020 Four Continents.

Note that the document says the competitions are considered in priority order. My interpretation of the criteria is that they'll only go down the list if the skaters are too close in score. Hence, Mariah could not be chosen over Amber because she was too far behind at nationals.

If Mariah had beaten Alysa then I'm sure she would have passed criteria 1 then chosen for World's as she clearly wins criteria 2.

Quoted from the USFSA document:
To create a pool of athletes to be considered for selection to the World Team, the
International Committee will take into consideration the performance (which can include
performance data, placement, and competitive depth of field) at the events listed below in
priority order:
1. 2021 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
2. 2020 Grand Prix Series Competitions
3. 2020 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
4. 2020 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
5. 2020 Senior ISP Points Challenge
6. 2020 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
7. 2020 Junior ISP Points Challenge

 

[ice coverage]

... Excerpt from 2021 Worlds selection procedures (emphases added):

The performance data provided to the International Committee to enhance their discussion for the selection of the athletes/teams will include competition results and other reports/data relating to detailed results sheets of the competitions listed in priority order in section 1.2. The data derived from the detailed result sheets from the events as outlined in 1.2 will provide a body of work within a twelve-month period that will demonstrate the athlete’s/team’s consistency and ability to achieve medal potential scores at the 2021 World Championships. The data will be a primary focus on discussing the ranking of the athletes/teams and determining who will be the best athletes that will have the most performance impact at the 2021 World Championships.

Note that the document says the competitions are considered in priority order. My interpretation of the criteria is that they'll only go down the list if the skaters are too close in score. ...

I do not agree with Lzbee's interpretation -- because of the excerpt from the selection procedures that I previously posted.

The USFS language refers to a "body of work within a twelve-month period" and to "consistency."
Emphases are mine:

"The data derived from the detailed result sheets from the events as outlined in 1.2 will provide a body of work within a twelve-month period that will demonstrate the athlete’s/team’s consistency and ability to achieve medal potential scores at the 2021 World Championships."​

My interpretation: Within the twelve-month bodies of work, events will be considered in priority order.
Thus 2021 Nats was of highest priority, 2020 Skate America not as high, etc.

---

Pre-Worlds media calls for Team USA have started -- per today's tweeting from multiple journalists about the call featuring Brandon and Alexa.

(But I have no idea when Bradie's call or Karen's will be.)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Mariah had no results from bona fide internationals that counted toward the body of work that determined USFS selection for 2021 Worlds -- because she did not compete at 2020 Four Continents.
Results from the quasi-international 2020 Skate America counted, and results from domestic events counted.
2021 Nats counted (with highest importance, as stated by USFS), and nothing further back than 2020 Nats (with low importance, as stated by USFS) counted.

My main issue is that USFSA isn't going by "body of work" and I disagree with people's interpretation that it does. If you want to go by the Nationals result, that's fine but then just announce that as the policy. Going by the National result, Amber gets the spot hands down. Adding the other events, each with a lower weight than 2021 Nationals but in their sum weighing more heavily than any one event alone, the spot unquestionably should go to Mariah. I don't think that when you compare Amber and Mariah, something like Amber scoring a career best of 190 while placing 9th at an event Mariah didn't compete in because she was slated to compete in a more prestigious competition shouldn't tip anything in Amber's favor. None of this probably matters since I don't think Karen or Bradie will miss Worlds, but it is frustrating that the USFSA continues to avoid setting more clear guidance on how it will choose athletes for big events and I hope the Olympic selections are more clear cut.