Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

Aside from Rika, there isn't anyone else who has the content. Kaori is a phenomenal skater but she is often lowballed when she's up against Russians and I don't see that changing. I can make the argument she deserved to be on the last two world podiums but was denied due to others being scored over her... Alysa is a lovely skater but I'm doubtful she'll be able to put serious pressure on the Russians. Even if she gets the 3A and a quad back she'll run into one brick wall labeled "GOE" and a bigger wall labeled "PCS" and, whether she's made improvements or not, she won't be given the scores to be competitive at the top... Bradie doesn't have the content and struggles at big events... Karen doesn't have the content and is too erratic... Amber has a 3A but it's unproven in competition, plus she'll be on the low end of the PCS pool... You Young is one of the best jumpers in the field and she's capable of a 3A and a quad from what we've seen. However, her big elements aren't reliable and she also struggles with consistency. I'd love to see her do well at some point though...

I know people have their feelings re: how Eteri does things but you can't deny she's one of the most successful coaches out there. She produces champion after champion. Her track record with longevity is nonexistent but longevity doesn't seem to be that important in Russia since there is always another skater coming up. As one star falls another rises. Eteri's skaters seem to be averaging about 2.5 to 3 years at the senior level before being replaced. That's a brutal pace but it is what it is and doesn't appear to be slowing down.

Well in Russia figure skating (based on what I can tell) is quite popular and thriving with fans, and the skaters are advancing the ladies discipline technically, the same can't be said for a country like the US, lots of empty seats (pre-pandemic) at arenas, dreadful time spots on TV (which is indicative of no draw to the program) and skaters who have far more stability and longevity in their place at the top of the country aren't exactly doing anything risky to try and advance the sport technically - they are trailing the Russian athletes.
 
Russians
Tier 1 - Valieva and Shcherbakova
Tier 2 - Trusova, Kostornaia and Khromykh
Tier 3 - Tuktamysheva and Usacheva

Non-Russians:
Tier 1 - Kihira, You and Liu
Tier 2 - Sakamoto, Tennell, Bell
Tier 3 - Hendrickx, Glenn, Chen, Lim, Lee, Kim, Higuchi

Valieva and Shcherbakova:
No non-Russian can beat them even at their worst, unless it's Rika or maybe Alysa at their very best. (Rika's PB is only one point more than Anna's World's score)

Trusova:
Sasha has been incredibly inconsistent in seniors so far and any of Kihira, Liu or You can beat her if she's having a bad day. Depends on how bad a day she's having though as her Rostelecom score was beatable by all of the non Russians above and her worlds score was beatable by Sakamoto, Tennell and maaaybe Bell at their best.

Kostornaia and Khromykh:
Aliona with consistent 3As is very difficult to beat but if she's adding a quad, she'll probably be less consistent. Either way, I think it'll take a top form Kihira or Liu to beat her. Maia is close in BV but she doesn't have the international reputation yet and may be inconsistent. If the quads don't hit, then Sakamoto, Tennell and Bell have a chance. If the quads do hit, I think Kihira and Liu still have a chance.

Tuktamysheva and Usacheva:
I love Liza but I still think she's a dark horse amongst the Russian ladies unfortunately. She's historically been beatable by the Tier 2 non-Russians but I think a quad will push her over them at their best even with mistakes. Daria doesn't have any ultra-c elements yet but her BV is still higher than most non-Russians and she will get good PCS. Tier 1 non-Russians should be able to beat these two on a good day but I think only Sakamoto from Tier 2 has a chance against Usacheva.

Tldr:
Only Kihira, Liu and You have the tech and reputation to challenge the Russians at the moment and this is assuming Alysa and Young get their ultra-c elements back.

I haven't considered the potential influx of 3As from non Russian ladies here but they're already inconsistent without it and some will have to climb up the reputation ranks as well.
TLDR2: Non-Russian Tier 1 is roughly Russian Tier 2.5. You get a chance if they have a bad day and you are at your very best.
 
Are there indications that Alysa is restoring after her terrible season?

Normally I would say there is ~50% chance that at least one of the Russian ladies bombs her performance and one of the challengers skates perfectly. But at Olympics everyone tends to perform more consistently, so I'd say it's ~30%.
 
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I still have confidence in Rika. I am not so sure about Liu unless she starts doing really well in the GP. Her pcs will take time. It is sad that Liza has fought so hard and yet she may be lucky to be in the final group come Russian Nationals. I guess we are assuming Alina and Evgenia are done. Besides they can't compete. Evgenia appears injured.
 
I still have confidence in Rika. I am not so sure about Liu unless she starts doing really well in the GP. Her pcs will take time. It is sad that Liza has fought so hard and yet she may be lucky to be in the final group come Russian Nationals. I guess we are assuming Alina and Evgenia are done. Besides they can't compete. Evgenia appears injured.
My guess is that if Alina tries to return, she will focus on the post-olympic season.
 
I wonder if any Japanese or even American single skaters are open to joining Eteri trainig group especially after the olympics?

Tursynbaeva almost beat the Russians in 2019 and she came from the same training group.
Eteri once said she is not much interested in coaching foreigners, after all Lilbet, Morisi or Nika are foreigners only formally. Though this might not be absolute. It seems hungarian lady Júlia Láng enjoyed her recent three weeks practise in Khrustalnyi pretty much. I can see it the way that if there will be more practises like this one and there will be mutual satisfaction, Eteri can think about taking more foreigners and there will be more foreigners interested in joining Eteri's group.
 
I wonder if any Japanese or even American single skaters are open to joining Eteri trainig group especially after the olympics?

Tursynbaeva almost beat the Russians in 2019 and she came from the same training group.

Eteri once said she is not much interested in coaching foreigners, after all Lilbet, Morisi or Nika are foreigners only formally. Though this might not be absolute. It seems hungarian lady Júlia Láng enjoyed her recent three weeks practise in Khrustalnyi pretty much. I can see it the way that if there will be more practises like this one and there will be mutual satisfaction, Eteri can think about taking more foreigners and there will be more foreigners interested in joining Eteri's group.

I don't know if Eteri herself is interested or if RusFed will be happy about it (like Flanker said, her current ones are a special case), but it might be a good opportunity for her more English fluent students like Medvedeva, Shcherbakova & Tursynbayeva to go that way in the future, especially if they did it under her mentorship.

Besides, Eteri probably already has more Russian students that she knows what to do with as it is.
 
I still have confidence in Rika. I am not so sure about Liu unless she starts doing really well in the GP. Her pcs will take time. It is sad that Liza has fought so hard and yet she may be lucky to be in the final group come Russian Nationals. I guess we are assuming Alina and Evgenia are done. Besides they can't compete. Evgenia appears injured.
Evgenia is regaining her strength, so I would not rule her out yet. Liza had 3 seasons that she was not at her peak, I say Evgenia and Alina have earned the right to skip a season or three to get back in the game.
 
Eteri once said she is not much interested in coaching foreigners, after all Lilbet, Morisi or Nika are foreigners only formally. Though this might not be absolute. It seems hungarian lady Júlia Láng enjoyed her recent three weeks practise in Khrustalnyi pretty much. I can see it the way that if there will be more practises like this one and there will be mutual satisfaction, Eteri can think about taking more foreigners and there will be more foreigners interested in joining Eteri's group.

They seem super willing to take Shoma Uno when he joined them for training but Im guessing it is different for the ladies?
 
They seem super willing to take Shoma Uno when he joined them for training but Im guessing it is different for the ladies?

Maybe its a situation of not particularly interested but if a opportunity she'd be willing to consider it depending on the skater?
 
Russians
Tier 1 - Valieva and Shcherbakova
Tier 2 - Trusova, Kostornaia and Khromykh
Tier 3 - Tuktamysheva and Usacheva

Non-Russians:
Tier 1 - Kihira, You and Liu
Tier 2 - Sakamoto, Tennell, Bell
Tier 3 - Hendrickx, Glenn, Chen, Lim, Lee, Kim, Higuchi

Outside of the the top 7 Russians, they still have 2 to 4 Grand Prix spots left.

Nugumanova, Samodurova, Guliakova etc would be Tier 4 battling it out with Tier 3 non Russians but Medvedeva, Zagitova and Sinitsyna (please let her have a GP) would be with Usacheva and Tuktamysheva who pose a challenge to Tennell, Bell and Sakamoto.

The Russians could possibly sweep all gold and silvers on the Grand Prix but ice is slippery and imo sweeping bronze is unlikely.
 
it would be cool to see her take a US lady at some point, it would be great for upping the competition domestically. it would also be a GREAT place for someone like Alysa Liu.
 
it would be cool to see her take a US lady at some point, it would be great for upping the competition domestically. it would also be a GREAT place for someone like Alysa Liu.

Domestically in the US or Russia? If its Russia i don't think they need any additional incentive to up their competition in ladies
 
Domestically in the US or Russia? If its Russia i don't think they need any additional incentive to up their competition in ladies
for the US, assuming she would improve drastically under Eteri. it would make everyone else really step it up.
 
You know, this gets a bit tiresome and irritating. How much "longevity" would Bradie, Mariah and the Canadians have if they had such intense national competition? They'd be long gone.

While your point about competitive environments is a fair one, it doesn't make what I said any less true. Eteri's skaters have a fraction of the shelf life of most other skaters, i.e. no longevity. By the time they hit 18 years old they've either been eclipsed by someone younger, are injured or struggling to maintain their technique. Regardless of the reason the result is the same--they leave. Thus, no longevity.

Plodding along in their 20s with inconsistent/nonexistant 3/3s and inconsistent regular triples I suppose is oh so great to you and more admirable? Give me a break.

A resounding YES. To me, watching someone in their 20s struggle yet continue to work on jump issues, try improve their skating, and grow as an athlete and a person is oh so great and very admirable. Being the best and winning all the time isn't everything. If you think a person experiencing lows in their skating and trying to work through it isn't admirable, I feel sorry for you. Some of the most amazing, inspiring and touching performances I can think of have come from skaters who previously struggled with their technique, consistency or some other issue and yet continued to fight and improve and finally had their moment:

Irina Slutskaya's 2005 world title
Carolina Kostner winning bronze in Sochi in 2014 at her 3rd Olympics
Ashley Wagner winning world silver in 2016
Shizuka Arakawa winning the gold in Torino in 2006
Liza T winning worlds in 2015
Kaetlyn Osmond's 2017 world silver and 2018 Oly bronze and world title
Mao Asada's Sochi Olys FS and 2014 worlds SP
Mirai Nagasu winning silver at nationals in 2018 and her FS from the team event at the Olys
Akiko Suzuki finally winning nationals in 2014
Mariah Bell's 2020 nationals FS
Liza T winning silver at worlds this year

FYI, with the exception of Liza T's world title in 2015 (18 yrs old), everyone else on this list were in their 20s when they achieved these accomplishments...
 
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