Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[nussnacker]

Maiia K. is only 5 ft 2, she just has long limbs. So she isn't in the "cutoff" height to do a clean quad.

She’s at least 5 ft 4-5. She said so several months ago and probably grew since then. On recent photos she’s already taller than Viktoria Sinitsina, who’s 168cm.

 

[Mathman]

Speaking of revolutionary innovators in ladies' figure skating. I have to wonder how Charlotte Oelschagel would have fared if she had been born a century later. As a professional show skater in the earliy 1900s she was the first lady to do an Axel jump. On the amateur side it would be another 20 years before a lady (Sonja Henie) did one in competition. (Henie in fact could do a single Axel / single Axel sequence.)

Oelschagel wowed the crowd by concluding her performances with single Axel into Charlotte spiral (thus racking up points in both TES and PCS, not to mantion bonus for highlight element in the second half ). After Oelschagel, the Charlotte spiral was largely dormant for a hundred years until it was brought back by Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen in 1999.

 

[jenaj]

Thank you for the thoughtful posts. Just to respond to this one question, I think it has always been the case, whatever scoring system is in place, that the title contenders are held up in the prliminary phases (now the short program). Michelle Kwan against Tara Lipinsky at 1997 Worlds, for instance. I think this is just human nature -- we know that the great skaters are great, so we don't hold uncharacteristic errors against them so much. Plus, as a sporting event, the fans have come to see the great champion slug it out with the rising star. If one of them is hopelessly far behind after the short program, the fans will have no reason to come back for the anticlimactic long.

Basketball great Wilt Chamberlain never fouled out of a game (1045 games). Why not? Because the fans paid to see Chamberlain play basketball, not to see him sit on the bench with 6 fouls.

I agree, except for Kurt Browning at the Olympics (twice).

 

[bubblecherry]

I fully expect Russian ladies to sweep at least half of the GP podiums, the GP final podium, and Olympic podium. There may be non Russian ladies that end up on some podiums here and there, but I can’t see anyone consistently defeating the top 4-5 Russian ladies. We’ll see how it goes

 

[prorussian fan]

Rika is the only non Russian skater who has stable 3A.
On the other hand, Liza is the only Russian skater with stable 3A right now.

No non Russian lady can jump stable quads.
On the other hand, Sasha is the only Russian lady who has stable quads right now.

Still Anna who doesn't have stable quads nor 3A was a stable winner last season. So how much those elements are important to dominate?

Kamila Valieva says: hold my bag!

 

[icetug]

Kamila Valieva says: hold my bag!

I'm sure she's ready to compete in seniors internationally. And just hope she won't burn in flames of expectation of the whole nation (excluding those who bet on other Eteri girls ).

 

[jenaj]

Are there indications that Alysa is restoring after her terrible season?

Normally I would say there is ~50% chance that at least one of the Russian ladies bombs her performance and one of the challengers skates perfectly. But at Olympics everyone tends to perform more consistently, so I'd say it's ~30%.

How did she have a terrible season? She only skated in one "real" competition--US Nationals--and did pretty well. 4th place but just off the podium. In the short and long, she did her 3lz-3t in the second half. She has improved a lot in speed and presentation.

 

[jenaj]

Kamila Valieva says: hold my bag!

Didn't Anna beat Kamila at Russian Nationals? Let's wait and see how Kamila does on the Grand Prix before crowning her Olympic champion.

 

[dante]

How did she have a terrible season? She only skated in one "real" competition--US Nationals--and did pretty well. 4th place but just off the podium. In the short and long, she did her 3lz-3t in the second half. She has improved a lot in speed and presentation.

Hmm, I thought it was worse. Are any protocols left?

 

[Amei]

Hmm, I thought it was worse. Are any protocols left?

I've not been able to find any protocols for the ISP challenge, here are the protocols from Nationals
If anyone wants to compare seasons, here are the protocols from 2020 Nationals

I don't think that Alysa had a terrible season if you look at her season by itself, but when comparing to the Russian ladies, which is purpose of this thread to discuss the potential challengers of which Alysa used to be considered, she did take a large step back. She didn't attempt ultra-c elements whereas most of her Russian counterparts kept and/or added new ultra-c jumps, additionally her presentation this year was immature in comparison to the Russians, still relying on her being cutesy/smiley.

 

[jenaj]

I've not been able to find any protocols for the ISP challenge, here are the protocols from Nationals
If anyone wants to compare seasons, here are the protocols from 2020 Nationals

I don't think that Alysa had a terrible season if you look at her season by itself, but when comparing to the Russian ladies, which is purpose of this thread to discuss the potential challengers of which Alysa used to be considered, she did take a large step back. She didn't attempt ultra-c elements whereas most of her Russian counterparts kept and/or added new ultra-c jumps, additionally her presentation this year was immature in comparison to the Russians, still relying on her being cutesy/smiley.

Not everyone would agree that her presentation was immature. There are no competitions where her presentation this year can be judged against "the Russians." Most who saw her at Nationals thought her skating skills and presentation had improved markedly. Alena Kostornaia, who seemed to be a lock to win Worlds last year, also "took a large step back" if Alysa did. We know Alysa had the big elements before and no doubt is working to get them back. If she does, she can certainly challenge for the podium at the Olympics.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

Alysa is coming for her olympic gold medal

 

[Azikin]

Alysa is coming for her olympic gold medal

I'd bet more on Alisa Dvoeglazova..

 

[lariko]

I feel that Liu, You and Kihira all are strong contenders, and it only depends on their form and training conditions in the upcoming season where they would land vs Tsehrbakova, Trusova, Kostornaya and Tuktamysheva. Valieva, at her last outing with both 3A and one quad was exceptional. Overall, it is going to be another interesting year, hopefully more interesting, actually, in ladies’ figure skating.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I feel that Liu, You and Kihira all are strong contenders, and it only depends on their form and training conditions in the upcoming season where they would land vs Tsehrbakova, Trusova, Kostornaya and Tuktamysheva. Valieva, at her last outing with both 3A and one quad was exceptional. Overall, it is going to be another interesting year, hopefully more interesting, actually, in ladies’ figure skating.

The more I think about, the more I believe that someone from Japan, S. Korea, or the US will be able to land on the Olympic podium. Olympic pressure on the favorites is unlike anything else, and the Russians will be taking a lot of risks to try to beat each other out for the gold medal. It wouldn't surprise me to see a steady skater with just a 3A take advantage of one (or more) of the Russians failing to find her timing on the quads.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

If Valieva skates like she did at the russian cup final or russian cup stage 2, bye bye podium. Same thing if Trusova has a repeat of Stockholm.

People thought OAR would sweep in 2018 and then Sotskova bombed. It's way too early to say that Russians will sweep the olympic podium. Ice is slippery...

 

[silveruskate]

If Valieva skates like she did at the russian cup final or russian cup stage 2, bye bye podium. Same thing if Trusova has a repeat of Stockholm.

People thought OAR would sweep in 2018 and then Sotskova bombed. It's way too early to say that Russians will sweep the olympic podium. Ice is slippery...

Sotskova as favourite against Osmond. News to me!

 

[dante]

the Russians will be taking a lot of risks to try to beat each other

I think Eteri has enough authority to prevent it.

 

[[email protected]]

Based on what I just read here, what is left to the fans of other than Russian skaters is expecting the skate of the lifetime from, say, Rika and a meltdown from Kamila. Can this happen? Theoretically, anything can happen. Practically? Zhenya, Alina, Elizabeth, Kamila, Alyona, Anna - they all delivered when it mattered most. I am sure that those who will be in the Olympic team will show everything that they are capable of. And Kamila's free program at the Russian Cup Final is a weak example. That event meant nothing to her and to anyone, she tried for the first time 3 quads, a 3A, and two 3-3 combos in the second half. That was just an experimental skate outlining what might happen with Bolero next season. If she landed all her jumps with her local GOE and pcs the score would be above 190. Her international score would be 175-180. Once again, it was just to show where she is heading. Young You, Rika, and Alysa Liu? Ok, ok...

What is realistic is Russia's not being able to participate in some of GP events and as a result a mixed composition in the GPF. The most obvious candidate for that is Skate America. How will coronavirus protocol work there? If they require a covid passport with vaccines that are not offered in Russia it will be the first barrier. Getting US visa will be another one - they stopped issuing travel US visas in Moscow.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Sotskova as favourite against Osmond. News to me!

In head to head senior comps, Osmond 2 Sots 1. After finishing 9th at the previous Worlds, 2013, and rejected by her own federation for the Russia team event at the OG, Sots b/c Gold medalist in Sochi. Where did THAT come from, said everyone?