Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[readernick]

Lindsay Thorngren is old enough to go senior, right? Do we know if she's going to compete internationally as a junior or a senior? If she's trying that triple axel (which was a really good attempt) she could threaten for an Olympic team spot if they have 3 spots.

Pretty sure she is staying junior, and while I think Lindsay has a lot of potential ( she is good at everything) she isn't likely to get particularly high scores internationally because she just doesn't have personality on the ice. ( Yet, I am sure her team is working on this) I personally think a clean Bradie, Mariah, Karen, Alysa, and Amber would still outscore her even if she lands one 3A. With multiple 3As she could be on the Olympic team but I think she needs another year to develop her skating. So , junior competitions are a good choice! The US will have a much stronger junior team this year than they have the past 8/9 years.

In terms of other strong skaters on the JGP, I believe Hana Yoshida who has quite a solid 3A will still be competing in junior competitions ( if JSF actually sends junior skaters to the later GPs). Mao Shimada has a very nice 4T and her 3A is very close to rotated. She is a great all around skater. However, she might still be too young for the JGP?

 

[alexocfp]

Don’t mean to be pedantic but the the juniors mentioned in the previous posts aren’t going to be eligible to defeat the Russian ladies this year, which was OP’s original inquiry: who can defeat the Russian ladies this year.

For this year, the answer is still nobody. Or themselves, ie they all totally bomb at the same time ans someone backs into a win. Without mistakes, they can’t be beat. And the odds of all 3 failing at the same time in the Olympics for instance is a number between one million and one billion to one.

Will be nice to have some real competition in the future, since more competition makes everyone better and makes the competitions more exciting.

 

[yume]

Aside Akatieva, i don't see a Russian junior who can't be beaten. Akatieva has a very high scoring potential and is mostly consistent. Even with mistakes she can still score higher than everyone else thanks to wild GOE and PCS. But the others...
Samodelkina is inconsistent so is Zhilina. Petrosyan hadn't landed her quad yet and she isn't rock-solid. Muravyeva and Co have classic layouts and aren't artistically outstanding.
There are some Koreans and Japaneses who can beat them. For example Yun Ahsun and Hana Yoshida. Maybe even that Chinese little skater Xiangyi An if she still has the same level than two seasons back. Too bad Mao Sjimada is too young because she has the potential to get nice scores.
I don't see a JGPF with 4-5 Russians like the previous seasons.

 

[Sjs5572]

Don’t mean to be pedantic but the the juniors mentioned in the previous posts aren’t going to be eligible to defeat the Russian ladies this year, which was OP’s original inquiry: who can defeat the Russian ladies this year.

For this year, the answer is still nobody. Or themselves, ie they all totally bomb at the same time ans someone backs into a win. Without mistakes, they can’t be beat. And the odds of all 3 failing at the same time in the Olympics for instance is a number between one million and one billion to one.

Will be nice to have some real competition in the future, since more competition makes everyone better and makes the competitions more exciting.

I think your opinion might change after the Cranberry Open.

 

[silveruskate]

Mia Kalin really gives me huge Valieva vibes.

On Russian Ladies, we have the GP first and not everyone faces everyone else.

 

[Azikin]

Aside Akatieva, i don't see a Russian junior who can't be beaten. Akatieva has a very high scoring potential and is mostly consistent. Even with mistakes she can still score higher than everyone else thanks to wild GOE and PCS. But the others...
Samodelkina is inconsistent so is Zhilina. Petrosyan hadn't landed her quad yet and she isn't rock-solid. Muravyeva and Co have classic layouts and aren't artistically outstanding.
There are some Koreans and Japaneses who can beat them. For example Yun Ahsun and Hana Yoshida. Maybe even that Chinese little skater Xiangyi An if she still has the same level than two seasons back. Too bad Mao Sjimada is too young because she has the potential to get nice scores.
I don't see a JGPF with 4-5 Russians like the previous seasons.

Interesting. Admittedly, I don't know much about current juniors outside Russia but I still would be surprised if we don't see Russian sweep at JGP finals. And I really doubt anyone outside Russia will be able to beat Samodelkina, for example. But I'm looking forward to see any potential serious challenge for Russian superstars..

 

[macy]

I think your opinion might change after the Cranberry Open.

who competes there?

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

who competes there?

Alysa Liu

 

[Dawn825]

Alysa Liu

Wow, when is that? I'm very eager to see her, do we even know what her programs are?

 

[Azikin]

Alysa Liu

It's that skater who was 4th at US Nationals? She's rather slow..

 

[yume]

It's that skater who was 4th at US Nationals? She's rather slow..

Oh please, the season have not even really started yet...

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

Wow, when is that? I'm very eager to see her, do we even know what her programs are?

August 15th. Coming up soon.

 

[flanker]

Oh please, the season have not even really started yet...

It was the obvious allusion on how the other person was talking about the russian skaters with the lack of respect before

 

[yume]

It was the obvious allusion on how the other person was talking about the russian skaters with the lack of respect before

Fair enough. But let's hold our guns till the first JGP at least.

 

[Novalis]

Fair enough. But let's hold our guns till the first JGP at least.

Okay, I'll try

 

[LiamForeman]

Good points made about TSL's reliability, I guess we wont know Alysa's plans till she says what they are herself. I wouldnt predict Alysa on the podium ahead of Kamila or Sasha. They're the two I would have most likely on the Russian team RN.

Realistically, that's how I feel about the Olympic Russian team. It HAS to include Valieva and Trusova. So the third spot comes down to the 3time Russian National Champion and reigning World Champion against Kostornaia, Usacheva, Khromykh. I am also VERY worried that Anna's broken toe is on her picking foot. Eight out of her ten jumping passes in any competition include a Flip/Lutz. She is really going to get behind the other women, which can be doable, but not the best case scenario to say the least.

 

[spicymacaron]

The only competition that really matter is Russian nationals right? If Kamila or Sasha bomb it hard, then no amount of politicking will save them. Trusova is inconsistent enough that I could argue she has a lower chance than Anna. And since it's one competition, the margin for upsets is higher than for the entire season.

 

[LiamForeman]

The only competition that really matter is Russian nationals right? If Kamila or Sasha bomb it hard, then no amount of politicking will save them. Trusova is inconsistent enough that I could argue she has a lower chance than Anna. And since it's one competition, the margin for upsets is higher than for the entire season.

But what if no-quad Shcherbakova shows up at Nationals like at Worlds? Her technique is the most unsound of the Russians. I'm loving her success as I've been a fan of hers since she was 12. But reality is that she is the weakest jumper of the Russians, including Tukt. Will she hold on for an Olympic spot? I sort of just believe she'll do it because she is a tough competitor. and her competitive record speaks for itself. But I have doubts. Alyona is a MUCH better skater IMO, there is no comparison, but she needs the Ultra-C to be competitive. If Koz, Usacheva, and Khromykh have a 3axel ready for the SP, Anna will suffer competitively. I see Koz, U, and K to be more likely to land a 3axel. Anna really has no room anymore. Her Worlds program and subsequent win was a gift. But I'll chalk it up to COVID and no one was in top shape. I just feel that Anna is the vulnerable one for the third Oly spot.

 

[Tanya]

The only competition that really matter is Russian nationals right? If Kamila or Sasha bomb it hard, then no amount of politicking will save them. Trusova is inconsistent enough that I could argue she has a lower chance than Anna. And since it's one competition, the margin for upsets is higher than for the entire season.

Not necessarily. There will be many juniors at Nationals too. Sofia A or Sofia S could take up spots on the podium. If that happens, it could be a situation like 2019 where the fed can either choose who they want from 4-6 or have a skate off at europeans or something.

 

[macy]

Honestly I see Trusova fighting for the 3rd spot. She was gifted a bronze at worlds this year by luck and isn't consistent. she hasn't delivered on a big stage in a really long time. we've been saying it's over for everyone once she skates clean, but this is her 3rd senior season and she hasn't been able to do it yet. IMO RusFed is not going to take chances if she still has the same issues this season.