Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[Zora]

Because it makes the jump that less consistent. What is better technique to make money on gambling - doing bets with large coefficients or with small? I am not talking about beauty of one single jump. I am talking about technique efficiency on the long distance.

That would make young Satoko Miyahara the queen of good technique! (I think she was the one who actually started all the pre-rotation discussions.) Everyone could see there was something wrong with her technique, yet she was fully rewarded for her tiny, efficient jumps, because she didn't underrotate as much, and she won against most other skaters because of her consistency. As one German Eurosport commentator once said: You can cheat a jump, you just need to know where.

But since the judges don't pay attention to the take-off, I think you are right, it would be stupid to teach real toe-pick technique these days, seeing that the other technique is more efficient.

 

[yume]

But that is like judging works in real life. Do you really think that judges are this stupid? Focus on landing is made for a reason. Landing is most important thing in the jump - it determines its quality visually. Because URed (on landing) jump looks ugly with any technique whereas what happens at take off do not affect jump visually since it's invisible to naked eye.

Satoko's landings on underrotated jumps (UR on the landing) were always beautiful. That's probably why she escaped calls so much times.

Not all underrotated jumps (on the landing) are ugly.

 

[nussnacker]

That would make young Satoko Miyahara the queen of good technique! (I think she was the one who actually started all the pre-rotation discussions.) Everyone could see there was something wrong with her technique, yet she was fully rewarded for her tiny, efficient jumps, because she didn't underrotate as much, and she won against most other skaters because of her consistency. As one German Eurosport commentator once said: You can cheat a jump, you just need to know where.

But since the judges don't pay attention to the take-off, I think you are right, it would be stupid to teach real toe-pick technique these days, seeing that the other technique is more efficient.

She didn’t ubderrotate as much? What do you mean, did you watch the same Satoko as I did? Satoko was always known for underrotating her jumps, and her score always being at the hands of the callers. If the caller is kind, she gets away with it, if he hammers her down, then her score drops. Satoko was never known for being able to consistently rotate her jumps.

 

[Mauvedreamer]

And how many people really think about kostner as a technician? She's thought of as an artistic skater.

I always liked her jumps more than the perceived artistry!! I

 

[AxelLover]

You can't see them without slo-mo anyway, can you?

Of course I can't. But I don't see the exact distance of a jump performed by a long jumper either, and yet I care about every centimeter and so do the judges.

Judging by your logic - every salchov, loop, toeloop should be downgraded by default and counted as having one rotation less.

No. I take it as a given thing of jump mechanics that toes, sals and loops are jumped in such a way that there is about 180 degrees of prerotation. I managed to accept it. But I'm not going to accept the same for lutzes and flips when 40% of male skaters show us that these jumps can be performed with substantially less prerotation.

And what difference in base value between loop and flip is, do you remember? It's mere 0.5 point or less - despite having almost whole rotation difference (if we doing flip by classic technique).

Where did you get that? The loop has around 180 degrees of prerotation while the flip only around 90. Thus the difference is 1/4 of a rotation.

You shouldn't be dissapointed by this - there isn't any reason to.

Until about four years ago I used to think that skaters are really able to do four rotations in the air and I considered it a very cool thing. Then I quite suddenly found out that it wasn't the case at all, so I felt disappointed back then. But you're absolutely right that there's no reason to be disappointed by this. After all, the fact that elite skaters can do 3.5 (or even close to 3.75) rotations in the air is still pretty impressive.

 

[AxelLover]

A "Quad lutz with edge take off" for example could be added as "triple lutz with edge and front take off" and have the same bv as a 3A.

I think that this would be too harsh. I would give it the BV of a 4T or a 4S. After all, these "quad lutzes with edge take off" still have about 1/4 of rotation more than the 3A and I think it should be rewarded.

 

[jenaj]

As for Carolina's longevity, never forget that the italian team is in a completely different situation than let's say the russian team (and not just russian). She did not have a rival in her own country that could keep up with her even with her weaker technique compared not just to the Russians. She gained medals at worlds but she could also afford to finish 12th (two times). Most of the time she had nearly 100% probablility she would pass the nationals and be appointed to the team. That's the luxury a skater from a country with strong and wide field can hardly afford.

I don't think Carolina has "weaker technique" compared to others in her era. She had triple-triples from a young age. Her problem was consistency and, for a long time, her lack of artistry. She was known for her speed, which was often her undoing. It wasn't until she became Lori Nichol's main student and muse that she became an artistic skater.

 

[[email protected]]

I think that based on what was going on, no one can beat Russian women next season. That's why those who are not happy about it keep complaining about "cheating", "bad technique", etc. But in fact they were simply stronger and the rest is just unfulfilled desires of fans. Desires fuelled by the hopes that, maybe, there will be the day when Rika has the skate of her life with the simultaneous meltdown of Russia's top 3. Or hopes that Alysa with newly found "artistry" brings back all her big jumps, this time without big URs.

Saying that, I've got to admit that growth and health are important factors. I don't know how the off-season affected our skaters. Anna was injured. Maja grew another couple of centimeters. Kamila is in puberty risks age, etc. As I said before, the big advantage of the current Russian system is that there are plenty of candidates to choose for the next OGM. It's not like all "Japanese beans" are in Rikas's basket and all American ones are in Alysa's.

 

[AxelLover]

Judges don't care - in figure skating. Why do you care then?

Because in general I care about the boundaries of what is possible for humans to do. I care about how far can humans jump, how high they jump, how fast they run, how fast they swim, etc. I wish measuring the exact number of rotations performed in the air was a part of the judging process for jumps in FS.

Are you sure that exactly 40%? What about female skaters triples? Doubles? How many skaters of both genders are jumping prerotated 3Lzs? I believe that number is close to 90% or higher.

I'm not sure it's exactly 40%. I've done some reasearch on this examining a few high-level competitions (worlds, olympics, Russian nationals) and studied the prerotation of the athletes on their lutzes and flips. About 40% of male skaters didn't prerotate these jumps excessively. For female skaters it was only about 20%. But even if there was only a few skaters in the entire world who wouldn't excessively prerotate their flips and lutzes I think there should be something in the rules to reward them.

Why russians? Alysa Liu and Mia Kalin are jumping even 'worse' quads in terms of technique. What about men's quads? Do you claim only russian men are jumping 'fake' quads? What about first officially recognized by ISU quad lutz by Brendon Mroz - did you see it? How they can recognize such fake quad

You are absolutely right about this. I totally agree.

I think that based on what was going on, no one can beat Russian women next season. That's why those who are not happy about it keep complaining about "cheating", "bad technique", etc.

I can't speak for others but I have no problem with the fact that the Russian ladies are the strongest in the world. I really like Alexandra Trusova and Kamila Valieva and I wish them success. I love their 4Ts, I love Alexandra's 4S and I love Kamila's 3A. I just don't like their flips and lutzes.

 

[spicymacaron]

I think that based on what was going on, no one can beat Russian women next season. That's why those who are not happy about it keep complaining about "cheating", "bad technique", etc. But in fact they were simply stronger and the rest is just unfulfilled desires of fans. Desires fuelled by the hopes that, maybe, there will be the day when Rika has the skate of her life with the simultaneous meltdown of Russia's top 3. Or hopes that Alysa with newly found "artistry" brings back all her big jumps, this time without big URs.

Saying that, I've got to admit that growth and health are important factors. I don't know how the off-season affected our skaters. Anna was injured. Maja grew another couple of centimeters. Kamila is in puberty risks age, etc. As I said before, the big advantage of the current Russian system is that there are plenty of candidates to choose for the next OGM. It's not like all "Japanese beans" are in Rikas's basket and all American ones are in Alysa's.

It’s not like all Russian skaters are complained about. Aliona and Sasha seem to be well loved internationally. Daria is not as well known, but the only negative comments about her is about her flutz.

The international skating community is not blind to the excellence of Russian skaters, but they are also not unaware of their flaws.

I don’t think anyone grew a lot. But it did look like everyone got taller except Aliona lol.

Edit: My favorites are also all Russians. My dream OGM would be Aliona, Ksenia(I know it won’t happen but still), or Sasha.

 

[AxelLover]

My favorites are also all Russians. My dream OGM would be Aliona, Ksenia(I know it won’t happen but still), or Sasha.

This will be a silly question but who is Ksenia?

Anyway, I would also love to see Aliona or Sasha get the gold medal. I also hope that Kamila, Rika and Kaori get on the podium. Yes I know, I just mentiond 5 skaters and want all of them to get on the olympic podium.

 

[flanker]

This will be a silly question but who is Ksenia?

Anyway, I would also love to see Aliona or Sasha get the gold medal. I also hope that Kamila, Rika and Kaori get on the podium. Yes I know, I just mentiond 5 skaters and want all of them to get on the olympic podium.

Ksenia Sinitsina, I suppose: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/kseniia-sinitsyna.66609/
She has two GP entries this season.

 

[Greengemmonster]

If we ban them from quads, won't the Russian women still win?

Kamila will stomp on everyone with three 3As and her mesmerizing skating. Anna could lutzloop her way to a win, so would Sasha and she'd probably break out the 3A too if she wasn't allowed quads.

The hate thrown at them for "cheated" quads is really pointless if most of the field can't cough up reliable triple-triples.

If there was a hypothetical ban on quads only Rika and Alysa could potentially challenge them.

 

[spicymacaron]

If we ban them from quads, won't the Russian women still win?

Kamila will stomp on everyone with three 3As and her mesmerizing skating. Anna could lutzloop her way to a win, so would Sasha and she'd probably break out the 3A too if she wasn't allowed quads.

The hate thrown at them for "cheated" quads is really pointless if most of the field can't cough up reliable triple-triples.

If there was a hypothetical ban on quads only Rika and Alysa could potentially challenge them.

Well, there are always competitions like this year’s worlds. Plenty of non quad programs could and have beaten the podium scores even though all the medalists had ultra-cs.

 

[Amei]

I think that based on what was going on, no one can beat Russian women next season. That's why those who are not happy about it keep complaining about "cheating", "bad technique", etc. But in fact they were simply stronger and the rest is just unfulfilled desires of fans. Desires fuelled by the hopes that, maybe, there will be the day when Rika has the skate of her life with the simultaneous meltdown of Russia's top 3. Or hopes that Alysa with newly found "artistry" brings back all her big jumps, this time without big URs.

Saying that, I've got to admit that growth and health are important factors. I don't know how the off-season affected our skaters. Anna was injured. Maja grew another couple of centimeters. Kamila is in puberty risks age, etc. As I said before, the big advantage of the current Russian system is that there are plenty of candidates to choose for the next OGM. It's not like all "Japanese beans" are in Rikas's basket and all American ones are in Alysa's.

Well they were all off the ice for a lot longer last offseason and with the exception of Kostornaia they all regained their quads and some improved and or added new ones. Regarding Shcherbakova's injury - considering her history coming back from a broken leg that caused her to have to relearn everything and roughly a year later she was doing quads, a toe injury (while yes on her picking foot) that took her off ice for a couple of weeks in June of the offseason is not a concern regarding her 'chances' to me unless we find out its not completely healed. For Valieva and puberty - hasn't the general consensus been that she is going to be right at that sweet spot like Zagitova was for 2018?

 

[Greengemmonster]

Well, there are always competitions like this year’s worlds. Plenty of non quad programs could and have beaten the podium scores even though all the medalists had ultra-cs.

The medalists fell because they were jumping ultra c jumps.

If they weren't jumping ultra c jumps they would probably have crunched out triples with ease. Actually to clarify, I can't discuss Liza because I don't follow her so I have no idea.

But Anna and Sasha likely would have rattled off unbeatable clean triples.

If we play the "what if" game then that needs to be taken into account too.

If you take away quads the Russian women will likely be cleaner. How clean is everyone else skating with fully rotated 3-3s?

I love Bradie. She's probably one of those skaters who I think could win if everyone was banned from ultra c, but she didn't cough up a clean program at World's either with just triples.

 

[Amei]

The medalists fell because they were jumping ultra c jumps.

If they weren't jumping ultra c jumps they would probably have crunched out triples with ease. Actually to clarify, I can't discuss Liza because I don't follow her so I have no idea.

But Anna and Sasha likely would have rattled off unbeatable clean triples.

If we play the "what if" game then that needs to be taken into account too.

Yes, in the FS Shcherbakova and Trusova were clean on their triples, Shcherbakova 'technically' had a slight error in that she wasn't able to get her second jump off after her first triple lutz so she had to change her first back-loaded triple to a solo triple lutz and her last jumping pass was the combination. BUT in all fairness to the 'what if' game - Trusova did have the error in the SP on her triple-triple combination at Worlds; the only reason she was able to move up from 12th to finish with the bronze was because she did the 5 quads (even though only 1 quad was clean).

Tuktamysheva is a different story, without the triple axel, she's a middle of the pack skater; she doesn't do any stand-out difficult technical elements like the other top Russians, her layouts are not as difficult, no real the transitions in or out of most of her jumps*, and she's lately had an issue of not having the cleanest landings so she doesn't make that much in GOE.

*Regarding transitions, whether they are liked or not is a different story I'm not talking about what we like I'm talking about what wins - based on the results last 6 or so years judges view that transitions are a requirement to get decent GOE.

If you take away quads the Russian women will likely be cleaner. How clean is everyone else skating with fully rotated 3-3s?

Not very, and most everyone else usually is doing 1 triple-triple combination and its usually the first element they do; Shcherbakova does 3 triple-triple combinations, 2 of them back-loaded.

I love Bradie. She's probably one of those skaters who I think could win if everyone was banned from ultra c, but she didn't cough up a clean program at World's either with just triples.

Not against the Russians and would probably be a roll of the dice against the Japanese, Bradie still needs to up her technical game, and she has a tendency to under-rotate - domestically they overlook it but internationally they call her under-rotations.

 

[AxelLover]

And if we are going to quote opinions of people with authority - it means there aren't any other arguments left besides that.

I never said that. I brought up the two coaches just to show that it's not only figure skating fans who don't consider many of the "lutzes" to be real lutzes.

Coaches are still not judges or technical specialists. Some even don't know the rules properly. They can have their own strong opinion - which still can be different from judges opinion. Even among judges there are different opinions about the same topics. One monogenous canonical view of all skating issues do not exist even within ISU - that's why they have periodical congress with voting system. So one's authority doesn't mean much in that constantly changing environment.

Well-said, this is absolutely true.

 

[AxelLover]

A pick in lutz jump should be used to vault into the air, like here: https://youtu.be/Gi7vzRlGJ5g?t=231.

Wow! I didn't know Tomoe Kawabata had such a beautiful lutz technique. I should definitely pay more attention to this skater.

 

[AxelLover]

3. I see your point, but elite athletes at that stage won’t probably change techniques, it’s not going to happen. If the rules were changed today, what would happen, is that skaters first will keep going and see whether they are getting called. If they are getting called, they’ll put more focus on other jumps, which aren’t called. Quads for example, learning 4S, 4T and 4Lo to avoid lutzes and flips. For Shoma for example it meant excluding lutzes completely. For Mao, attempting 3A in order to compensate for her lutz and combos. They’ll learn to adapt, they’ll change their content, but thinking that it will result in them completely changing their lutz and flip technique then and there is unrealistic. However, there probably would be an impact on future generations. (It’s worth saying that Mao really tried, invested a lot of time in it, but still wasn’t successful and kept on flutzing and having problems with rotations)

This is true. Although I'd love to see ISU to make the rules more clear to really punish heavily prerotated and "full blade takeoff" lutzes and flips, I don't think it would be fair to do it immediately. The right thing would be (imo) to say something like "4 years from now there will be a new rule which will slightly penalise this and that". Then every two years the penalisation would get bigger until it would get to the desired level. I strongly hope something like this happens in the future.