2022 U.S. Nationals: Senior Men's Free Skate

[Ruthypegs]

You never know. Ross took the silver and they took the 3rd and 4th place skaters that year.

I'm looking at the table of priority groups - why is Zhou in priority group 2 - he hasn't been consistently scoring highly enough in international competitions to be in the Olympic Top 5, and his top score wouldn't necessarily earn him a top 3 Olympic Place. I would have thought he'd be in priority group 3.

However, I'm no expert, so I could well have this wrong!

 

[yume]

Ilia will not medal at the Olympics, even if he skates lights out. He has the tech content but not the skating skills. He is also pretty much unknown to International judges and was playing it safe on tech content in the JGP to ensure making the finals.

I was talking about Vincent.

 

[moonvine]

No. Nathan delivered.

Jason came in 7th. Which, while he isn't capable of much better, isn't what should be getting all the credit for slots.

To me the most important factor should be the team event. Nathan will only skate one program. Either Ilia or Vincent has the potential to be brilliant or completely torpedo our medal hopes. Jason will not torpedo our medal hopes. Vincent has shown some extremely concerning inconsistent skating on the world and domestic stage but they have painted themselves into a corner with Vincent. I would not be surprised to see USFS change these criteria going forward.

At this point I would not only take Jason. I would have him skate in the team event.

 

[norwegianfairytale]

He will get them next time but what I’m saying is he is an inconsistent skater, the minimum wasn’t difficult to get. If there is some kind of problem where he doesn’t have minimums it is his own fault, I’m not sure who else’s fault it would be. It isn’t like they didn’t give him the chance.

Him not having the minimums demonstrates his inconsistency and I think it should be considered in this whole situation. Not oh poor Ilia who doesn’t have the minimums.

I don´t see there is a problem, USFS can give him a spot at Worlds under the condition he gets the minimum in time, and he still can.

I don´t think you should call it inconsistency just because his first senior competitions was a bad one. Ilia competed in junior events this season so he didn´t quite get the chance to be rated among other senior skaters who had like 2 GP events each.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

How do you feel about Malinin over Zhou?

Zhou > Malinin. Yes, Malinin trounced Zhou in the FS, but Zhou owned him in the SP.

Malinin won't get the PCS of Zhou or Brown, but his technical potential can produce a higher/better result than Brown could achieve with his lack of a quad.

Other points to consider: Zhou has a World bronze, and is the only one to win against Chen this entire quadrennial (Uno coming 2nd at SkAm too, mind you), and - most significantly - Zhou's best total score this season is 2nd best in the world.

No question that Zhou should go over Malinin. The only question is who between Brown and Malinin --- and if certain folks put their dislike of Zhou aside and looked at this objectively it would be obvious that Brown or Malinin is the only real decision that the selection team should be mulling over.

 

[yume]

I kind of agree with you how there is no much of a difference in 10th and 20th place looking from an angle of the individual skater, But it's matter for the country quotas (to have at least 2 or 3 skaters in the next competition, as more representatives in the GP series), so i guess that is the logic behind the criteria.

For worlds yes. Not olys.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

To the person who said Malinin is part of high risk high reward.

There is no reward for Malinin. It is impossible for him to medal and he is only a liability in team event. He does no better than Jason would do and can do worse.

It’s just risk no reward.

 

[invisiblespiral]

I'm looking at the table of priority groups - why is Zhou in priority group 2 - he hasn't been consistently scoring highly enough in international competitions to be in the Olympic Top 5, and his top score wouldn't necessarily earn him a top 3 Olympic Place. I would have thought he'd be in priority group 3.

However, I'm no expert, so I could well have this wrong!

I think they're basing the scores off of 2021 worlds for the top 3 cutoff.

 

[el henry]

The more I think about it, As he is not an exceptionally reliable skater

The only argument in favour of Jason is how beautifully he skates,

All the others have more potential than him competitively.

On another forum, someone posted that in 63 competitions, Jason has never finished below 9th. He medaled twice on the GP this year

Ilia still doesn't have SP Worlds minimums from a very unreliable skate at the Warsaw Cup. One bad skate is still one more bad skate than Jason had. The argument for Jason is *precisely* his reliability.

 

[moonvine]

It takes the result of more than one skater to earn three spots. Jason's 7th place finish contributed to the three spots just as much as Nathan's win did.

And a whole lot more than Zhou's 25th did.

And it will take more than one to do the team event at the Olympics.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

There are no spots/quotas on the line at the Olympic Games.

I thought those criterias are the same as the criterias for the Worlds. Otherwise there is really no logic to include it as that important one

 

[labgoat]

Malinin delivered, landing 6 quads across both programs. Zhou did 5 (although 3 of them should have received q's). And Brown failed to land even one clean quad, let alone attempt more than one (which deserved a < instead of a q).

Freeskate
Malinin 199.02, Brown 188.94 (with 0 quad), Zhou 177.38
Jason must have done something to score 10 points less than Ilia and 10 points more that Zhou

 

[moonvine]

I was talking about Vincent.

Oh sorry my bad.

 

[mrrice]

You can get your minimums at the Olympics

Well, my concern with ilia is that he hasn't been in front of an international panel as a senior. Nathan and Jason have already proven they can get the job done. Vincent has his world bronze but, he missed the free program last year. This will be a tough decision for the committee.

 

[moonvine]

To the person who said Malinin is part of high risk high reward.

There is no reward for Malinin. It is impossible for him to medal and he is only a liability in team event. He does no better than Jason would do and can do worse.

It’s just risk no reward.

Exactly so.

 

[alyssamarie]

Vincent is priority group 2. His spot is likely safe. so it is Ilia vs Jason. What Ilia has going for him is trending upwards, and his 2nd place win today. Jason wins everything else. Vincent is lucky they're ignoring him not making the fs at worlds, since IMO he should also be in group 3.

 

[yume]

Just throwing it out there - either Ilia or Vincent have the potential to damage the US medal hopes in the Team competition. Jason likely does not.

Everyone can have a bad skate.
And some Brown's scores are what Zhou gets for bad skates.

 

[moonvine]

I thought those criterias are the same as the criterias for the Worlds. Otherwise there is really no logic to include it as that important one

No, the worlds qualifying are the hardest to get.

The only reason the Olympics are more important to the athletes is that they happen once every 4 years and there’s a mystique. In my opinion they are blown far out of proportion and the best skater doesn’t always win - who thinks Sarah Hughes is better than Michelle Kwan? But it is what it is.

 

[Wafflecakes]

And it will take more than one to do the team event at the Olympics.

Lets be 100% real.

If America was going to make an ACTUAL run at gold in the team event Nathan would skate both programs.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

This is why I see the decision as Ilia vs Vincent, but then I am risk adverse.

Thinking about Vincent skating in the team event actually scares me and I really don’t see how we could rely on Ilia without any international track record.