2024-25 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[RafaelAstro]

Basically for an all japanese gpf Amber would need to place 4th at least with the other japanese doing great, it would be more clear if she places 5th, if Amber places on the podium she goes directly to the final, the only real chance for Chaeyeon and Kimmy is if one of they place first and that's not even garanted for a classification

 

[rabidline]

Entries for Winter World University Games (January in Turin, Italy):

Mone Chiba
Rion Sumiyoshi
Hana Yoshida

Substitutes:
Rinka Watanabe
Rino Matsuike
Saki Miyake

 

[Joekaz]

It was a shame Mone hit a rut in the ice or something in that step sequence, but she did great and Japan gets five into GPF. On top of that, it was shockingly obvious how much better Chiba was compared to Glenn as a pure skater. Skating back to back made Mone's superiority glaringly obvious.

 

[RafaelAstro]

It happened what was more probable, Amber in the final with 5 japanese, I'm feel for Rion and Rinka as I really like their programs but some mistakes in the free were very costly, I can't be sad, in the end this was one of the most sussesful grand prix season for the japanese ladies, 8 of 9 ladies medaled, 5 are in the final and 2 more as alternates, and Rino is in the final who has currently my favorite programs, great job from all ladies

 

[YuBluByMe]

Yep, 5-1 with Sakamoto, Higuchi, Yoshida, Chiba, and Matsuike like I thought it’ll be. I thought Watanabe was fortunate to finish as high as she did - I would have had her below Repond - but I admit I’m a little gutted for Sumiyoshi. Out of all the Japanese ladies on the GP circuit, I feel she’s the most overlooked. She started off in the first group and she simply doesn’t belong there. Her skating is so soothing. But she doesn’t do herself any favors, so hopefully she’ll do really well at JNats so she’ll have international assignments in the second half of the season.

BREAK

I spent the last few days watching Junior Nationals - what a time commitment that was. Top 8 were:

1. Mao Shimada
2. Kaoruko Wada
3. Ikura Kushida
4. Ami Nakai
5. Rena Uezono
6. Haruna Murakami
7. Mayuko Oka
8. Mei Okada

I never seen Oka before. She’s teeny weeny so I think she may be a novice. Nakai being off the podium makes things interesting, but she had a much better JGP season than Kushida, qualifying for the JGPF. I think if she finishes among the top three juniors at JNats she should be fine.

It’s said every year that JNats will be a blood bath and it never is, but I think that may be true this time. I do think, however, that selections to Worlds have already been narrowed down. Sakamoto’s obviously going and I think the other two spots will be among the GPF finalists. Chiba has the highest scores after Sakamoto and is a Worlds podium contender. The other three can easily make top ten so it’ll be a strong team no matter what.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

I never seen Oka before. She’s teeny weeny so I think she may be a novice.

Mayuko is not a Novice skater, but she is truly tiny for her age. She was born in September of 2009, so she's already 15 (!) and this is actually her second internationally Jr eligible season

 

[Joekaz]

Yep, 5-1 with Sakamoto, Higuchi, Yoshida, Chiba, and Matsuike like I thought it’ll be. I thought Watanabe was fortunate to finish as high as she did - I would have had her below Repond - but I admit I’m a little gutted for Sumiyoshi. Out of all the Japanese ladies on the GP circuit, I feel she’s the most overlooked. She started off in the first group and she simply doesn’t belong there. Her skating is so soothing. But she doesn’t do herself any favors, so hopefully she’ll do really well at JNats so she’ll have international assignments in the second half of the season.

BREAK

I spent the last few days watching Junior Nationals - what a time commitment that was. Top 8 were:

1. Mao Shimada
2. Kaoruko Wada
3. Ikura Kushida
4. Ami Nakai
5. Rena Uezono
6. Haruna Murakami
7. Mayuko Oka
8. Mei Okada

I never seen Oka before. She’s teeny weeny so I think she may be a novice. Nakai being off the podium makes things interesting, but she had a much better JGP season than Kushida, qualifying for the JGPF. I think if she finishes among the top three juniors at JNats she should be fine.

It’s said every year that JNats will be a blood bath and it never is, but I think that may be true this time. I do think, however, that selections to Worlds have already been narrowed down. Sakamoto’s obviously going and I think the other two spots will be among the GPF finalists. Chiba has the highest scores after Sakamoto and is a Worlds podium contender. The other three can easily make top ten so it’ll be a strong team no matter what.

Yea, I was surprised Sumiyoshi skated so poorly, was probably overscored a little to be honest. Usually SP is her issue. But I think the best 5 ended up making it. As for World's team, it will be top 3 seniors at Nationals if they are one of the 5 going to GPF. They all performed very well this season, with no one head and shoulders above the other girls. And other than Sakamoto, none have the past accomplishments to justify jumping one of the others.

 

[cohkaix]

Mayuko is not a Novice skater, but she is truly tiny for her age. She was born in September of 2009, so she's already 15 (!) and this is actually her second internationally Jr eligible season

Mayuko was originally training in Hokkaido. She just joined Kinoshita Academy this summer (for her second Jr. season). The original guess was she transferred to Kinoshita in pursuit of ice dance or perhaps pair? But finding a suitable partner may not be as easy. So far her results at domestic level are quite stable, I think.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

Mayuko was originally training in Hokkaido. She just joined Kinoshita Academy this summer (for her second Jr. season). The original guess was she transferred to Kinoshita in pursuit of ice dance or perhaps pair? But finding a suitable partner may not be as easy. So far her results at domestic level are quite stable, I think.

Judging by what she said in her introduction video I believe Mayuko's intention when transferring to Kinoshita Academy was to improve as a Singles skater
She mentioned wanting to work hard on her skating, expression, the 3A and on quadruple jumps

Though her skating skills and jump technique needed refinement, I feel she definitely showed enough talent and potential last season to be accepted into KA as a Singles trainee...or very possibly, Hamada flat out scouted her

 

[YuBluByMe]

GPF is over and Nationals is only a few weeks away. The selection criteria is very specific so it’s easy to see who’s in the running for Worlds, 4CC, and Junior Worlds:

A.

1. National champion will be selected.

- TBD

B.

1. Second and third at Nationals
2. Top two GPF competitors
3. Top three season’s best

• TBD
• Chiba, Sakamoto
• Sakamoto (231.88), Chiba (212.54), Higuchi (206.08)

C.

1. Top three world standing
2. Top three season ranking
3. Top three highest average score in two competitions, including domestic competition

• Sakamoto (1), Yoshida (4), Chiba (8)
• Chiba (2), Sakamoto (3), Yoshida (4)
• Sakamoto (216.55), Chiba (212.23), Sumiyoshi (201.90)

Selection Pool: Chiba, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Yoshida, Sumiyoshi. Anyone outside these five will need to land on the podium to be considered for Worlds.

Sakamoto and Chiba have separated themselves from everyone else. They’re almost certainly being named to the team, regardless of their ranking at Nationals. If Chiba is beaten by Matsuike or Mihara, for example, she’ll still be selected for Worlds over both of them, provided she does well enough. (And there’s precedence for such decisions. See Yoshida’s selection last year with a 7th place finish.) The selection for the third spot could be difficult if Matsuike, Sumiyoshi or Watanabe land on the podium. I think they’re still likely to be passed up for skaters that meet more bullet points (and there’s precedence for this too, but in the men’s field), because their international average scores are pretty close. Even so, I’m confident the Worlds team will be Sakamoto, Chiba and one of Higuchi or Yoshida.

 

[YuBluByMe]

4CC Selection Criteria

- Top 10 at Nationals
- Top six WS
- Top six season ranking
- Top six SB
- Top six average score of two highest competition

1. TBD
2. Sakamoto (1), Yoshida (4), Chiba (8), Watanabe (10), Mihara (14), Sumiyoshi (28)
3. Chiba (2), Sakamoto (3), Yoshida (4), Higuchi (10), Matsuike (16), Watanabe (19)
4. Sakamoto (231.88), Chiba (212.54), Higuchi (206.08), Sumiyoshi (202.45), Yoshida (199.46), Matsuike (199.20)
5. Sakamoto (216.55), Chiba (212.23), Sumiyoshi (201.90), Higuchi (201.51), Yoshida (197.97), Watanabe (196.09)

JFed has been sending two different teams for Worlds since the Olympics, but there’s been at least one skater that’s gone to both. Chiba may go to both to improve her WR since she’s right on the cusp of being in the last group. I think Yoshida will be selected if she’s top 10 at Nationals and isn’t chosen for Worlds. Same goes for Higuchi. Other than that…this can go many ways.

 

[YuBluByMe]

Junior World Selection Criteria

A.

1. Junior National champion will be selected.

• Mao Shimada

B.

1. Second and third at junior nationals
2. JGPF competitors
3. Top 3 at Nationals
4. Top 3 SB
5. Top 3 highest average score in two junior competitions, to include domestic competition

• Kaoruko Wada, Ikura Kushida
• Shimada, Wada, Nakai
• TBD
• Shimada (224.68), Nakai (204.88), Wada (198.22),
• Shimada (216.39), Nakai (198.25), Wada (196.18)

I’ll be very surprised if the JW team isn’t Shimada, Wada and Nakai. Off-topic, but National results among the junior men is going to matter more than it does for the junior women.

 

[Joekaz]

GPF is over and Nationals is only a few weeks away. The selection criteria is very specific so it’s easy to see who’s in the running for Worlds, 4CC, and Junior Worlds:

A.

1. National champion will be selected.

- TBD

B.

1. Second and third at Nationals
2. Top two GPF competitors
3. Top three season’s best

• TBD
• Chiba, Sakamoto
• Sakamoto (231.88), Chiba (212.54), Higuchi (206.08)

C.

1. Top three world standing
2. Top three season ranking
3. Top three highest average score in two competitions, including domestic competition

• Sakamoto (1), Yoshida (4), Chiba (8)
• Chiba (2), Sakamoto (3), Yoshida (4)
• Sakamoto (216.55), Chiba (212.23), Sumiyoshi (201.90)

Selection Pool: Chiba, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Yoshida, Sumiyoshi. Anyone outside these five will need to land on the podium to be considered for Worlds.

Sakamoto and Chiba have separated themselves from everyone else. They’re almost certainly being named to the team, regardless of their ranking at Nationals. If Chiba is beaten by Matsuike or Mihara, for example, she’ll still be selected for Worlds over both of them, provided she does well enough. (And there’s precedence for such decisions. See Yoshida’s selection last year with a 7th place finish.) The selection for the third spot could be difficult if Matsuike, Sumiyoshi or Watanabe land on the podium. I think they’re still likely to be passed up for skaters that meet more bullet points (and there’s precedence for this too, but in the men’s field), because their international average scores are pretty close. Even so, I’m confident the Worlds team will be Sakamoto, Chiba and one of Higuchi or Yoshida.

Chiba isn't accomplished enough to bump Matsuike. But she is likely to get more generous scoring though.

 

[macy]

i am really hoping Wakaba will go to worlds!!! she's done so well this season.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

Chiba isn't accomplished enough to bump Matsuike. But she is likely to get more generous scoring though.

?
She and Kaori are literally the only two skaters already fulfilling both criteria B and C - There's almost no chance both will not be selected for Worlds, even if they get beaten at Nationals.

On top of that, Mone has the 2nd highest season's best score of the Japanese Sr Women (6 points clear of the 3rd highest SB score) and has been the most consistent out of the selection pool this far (only scored below 200 internationally once this season, with three high 200/low 210 scores in a row).

With Olympic spots on the line, and Kaori suffering from inconsistency this season, she'll be instrumental in minimising the risk of getting less than the maximum possible 3 spots.

 

[Joekaz]

?
She and Kaori are literally the only two skaters already fulfilling both criteria B and C - There's almost no chance both will not be selected for Worlds, even if they get beaten at Nationals.

On top of that, Mone has the 2nd highest season's best score of the Japanese Sr Women (6 points clear of the 3rd highest SB score) and has been the most consistent out of the selection pool this far (only scored below 200 internationally once this season, with three high 200/low 210 scores in a row).

With Olympic spots on the line, and Kaori suffering from inconsistency this season, she'll be instrumental in minimising the risk of getting less than the maximum possible 3 spots.

It doesn't matter how many criteria you fill, as long as you fill one to get in the pool. Japan takes the Nationals seriously. Remember Wakaba had way more criteria than Kaori in the first Olympics, but they took Kaori because she finished ahead of Higuchi at Nationals.They won't bump any of the girls that were in GPF unless its for Kaori. Of course, they clearly like Mone, so she will definitely get more generous scoring than many do.

 

[rabidline]

Thank you @YuBluByMe for compiling We should get confirmation from JSF on who are in the selection pool by December 16, but this is already very comprehensive.

Personally I hope Wakaba can make it to Worlds. I think she's fully ready in terms of physical conditioning, and she gets better and better with every competition in delivering her programs and maintaining her motivation + mentality. However this Worlds will decide Olympic spots, so it's a bit scary if something goes terribly wrong and they lose another Olympic spot, again. But that shouldn't happen if the other two skaters are Kaori and Mone and they stay healthy... so...

Four Continents should be interesting: I think Kaori will decline because of her AWG assignment and so will Hana. Mone has won 4CC last year, so JSF might give her something like Challenge Cup and leave 4CC to skaters who haven't won it... maybe Wakaba (doubling as Worlds warm-up + getting her more WS points), Rion and Rino / Rinka depending on how Nationals shake up?

 

[Joekaz]

Thank you @YuBluByMe for compiling We should get confirmation from JSF on who are in the selection pool by December 16, but this is already very comprehensive.

Personally I hope Wakaba can make it to Worlds. I think she's fully ready in terms of physical conditioning, and she gets better and better with every competition in delivering her programs and maintaining her motivation + mentality. However this Worlds will decide Olympic spots, so it's a bit scary if something goes terribly wrong and they lose another Olympic spot, again. But that shouldn't happen if the other two skaters are Kaori and Mone and they stay healthy... so...

Four Continents should be interesting: I think Kaori will decline because of her AWG assignment and so will Hana. Mone has won 4CC last year, so JSF might give her something like Challenge Cup and leave 4CC to skaters who haven't won it... maybe Wakaba (doubling as Worlds warm-up + getting her more WS points), Rion and Rino / Rinka depending on how Nationals shake up?

I think Wakaba takes unfair criticism from doing poorly at her first World's that season before the Olympics. She not only was in her first senior season, but she was only 16 that season, so she would have still been junior by today's rules. She didn't have a great season that year, yet she got alot of blame when it was Satoko electing to get surgery before World's on an injury she had skated to a win at Nationals with that forced the extra responsibility on the young Higuchi. Ever since then she got tagged unfairly as a choker by many, especially whenever she makes a mistake in pressure situations, which happens to ALL skaters at times. But the many times she has skated very well under pressure often get ignored.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

It doesn't matter how many criteria you fill, as long as you fill one to get in the pool. Japan takes the Nationals seriously. Remember Wakaba had way more criteria than Kaori in the first Olympics, but they took Kaori because she finished ahead of Higuchi at Nationals.They won't bump any of the girls that were in GPF unless its for Kaori. Of course, they clearly like Mone, so she will definitely get more generous scoring than many do.

Yes, there was a time when Japanese Nationals was indeed the end-all be-all of team selection. However, the case you are referring to was 7 (!) years ago, take a look at the last two years and you'll see a clear difference in the selection process.

In 2022/23, Rinka was chosen despite placing 12th (to be fair, she was the only other skater to fulfill the criteria at the time), and last season Hana, who placed 7th. Sota, who placed 3rd at Nationals last year was passed over in favour of Kao, who placed 4th but had better international results - Something that would have been unthinkable a few years back (see the 2022 Olympics selection for example).

 

[Joekaz]

Yes, there was a time when Japanese Nationals was indeed the end-all be-all of team selection. However, the case you are referring to was 7 (!) years ago, take a look at the last two years and you'll see a clear difference in the selection process.

In 2022/23, Rinka was chosen despite placing 12th (to be fair, she was the only other skater to fulfill the criteria at the time), and last season Hana, who placed 7th. Sota, who placed 3rd at Nationals last year was passed over in favour of Kao, who placed 4th but had better international results - Something that would have been unthinkable a few years back (see the 2022 Olympics selection for example).

Im not saying they 100 percent go with the top 3. Im saying that they pick whoever they want as long as they have at least one criteria. Fulfilling more criteria doesn't add anything as long as the skaters had somewhat comparable success. Mone doesn't have the past accomplishments to warrant jumping other top girls this season. All of the GPF girls had comparable success this season. One caveat is the placement of the juniors. Finishing third among seniors doesn't carry as much weight as actually reaching the podium. With Shimada involved, that is a concern. This being skating, political connection is also involved too.