- Joined
- Aug 8, 2023
Its hard to say. Her family in general is supposedly very short. I'm pretty sure shes already past her biggest developmental years. She was a tiny girl a couple years ago and now looks like a young lady. Thats the stage when girls get tall but shes still short. It doesnt look like her development is stunted if we look at everything but height. I think its likely she really hit the genetic lottery for figure skating. Even looking at Anna and Sasha, after Olympics they changed a lot physically since they stopped training but didnt get taller. Only Valieva got taller after 16/17. Mishina is supposed to be about 160cm, or 5'3-5'4. I'm guessing Petrosian is around 4'10-4'11. Some people are really just that short. Even if she grew a little bit more I dont think shes going to have any big changes or growth spurts. Its also a good sign she has stabilized massively this season. Sort of a sign of physical maturity.Random question…sorry if it’s been discussed already…I just watched Adeliia P skate for the first time, in Russian nationals, and was really impressed (along with her jumps) at how tiny she is. Standing next to pair girl Mishina she looked several inches shorter. I assume she hasn’t hit her growth spurt yet? Dave Lease on his recent podcast said that she may be a risky choice for the Olympics.
I think Dave Lease probably doesnt follow Russian skating closely. If not her then who? Gorbacheva is improving but still extremely unstable. We dont know if Muravieva will regain peak shape and she was always inconsistent anyways. Frolova without ultra-c will not be a favourite especially considering judges probably wouldn't be very nice to her compared with Kaori for example.
The only other option is Sadkova, but theres no reason to pick her over Adeliia. Adeliia has a 3A and even a 4F, her PCS is enormous, she has perfect levels... shes better than everyone in every way. Even if she did hit a growth spurt its really hard to imagine she loses the 4T. Her 3A looks very stable too. I dont see it as risky. Petrosian could get hit with a growth spurt and worst case scenario her tech is equal to Sadkova (2 4Ts) but with much better PCS anyways. If you expect her to lose everything and send someone else thats basically gambling on Petrosian having a catastrophe for no reason. Maybe if Sadkova learned a 3A it'd almost be close but PCS gap is still there. Muravieva could be a favourite even without ultra-c but again thats wayy riskier than Petrosian or even Sadkova.
Basically since Russia has to choose so soon, extrapolating into the future there is no case to be made for anyone else. The fact is the rules they set for Russia are designed to make anything risky. For example Akateva could improve/stabilize and shes obviously post growth but she hasnt proven herself yet, and they dont have time to wait and see how things play out. Petrosian's insane consistency over the last 3 years gives confidence. I made a post earlier assessing lady's consistencies and to summarize after this season Adeliia will have the highest senior ladies career average score of all time. Also the highest single season-average barring Valieva's DQ. Probably the highest 2-season average even including Valieva's DQ. She'll be the most consistent ultra-c lady's skater ever.
Something insane could happen by RGPF but thats basically it, and its in just 3 months. After that theres basically no data left to decide who goes. They make their choice a year out.
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