Is Flatt USA's best hope for 3 in LA?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The teenyboppers are growing up and becoming young ladies. Given the weak showing of Mirai and Caroline at the recent showings of SA and SC, who will the USFS send to LA to get 3 ladies for the Olys?

Given Asada, Kim, Nakano, Ando, Rochette, I can see Flatt knocking one of them out for a 5th place finish. The USFS will then need someone skate and finish 8th or better. WHO, if anyone: Kimmie, Caroline, Mirai, Bebe?

Among the above mentioned 5 non Americans there is also Meier, and one more American: Wagner

 

[fiercemao]

Geez, more panic and hype.

 

[Tonichelle]

It's too soon to tell. Let everyone get the first event jitters out of their system.

I think the sky is falling attitude that we're seeing on GS when it comes to mens and ladies is so very premature.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Geez, more panic and hype.

Hardly. Nobody hypes Rachael and there is no panic.

 

[luckyguy]

The teenyboppers are growing up and becoming young ladies. Given the weak showing of Mirai and Caroline at the recent showings of SA and SC, who will the USFS send to LA to get 3 ladies for the Olys?

Given Asada, Kim, Nakano, Ando, Rochette, I can see Flatt knocking one of them out for a 5th place finish. The USFS will then need someone skate and finish 8th or better. WHO, if anyone: Kimmie, Caroline, Mirai, Bebe?

Among the above mentioned 5 non Americans there is also Meier, and one more American: Wagner

Flatt is undoubtedly favorite No 1. I think it is possible that newcomers like Alexe Gilles, Kristine Musademba and Angela Maxwell can beat Nagasu and Zhang at U.S. Nationals. At this point it is not very likely that Flatt and the second U.S. lady (Gilles, Musademba, Maxwell, Wagner, Czissny, Nagasu, Zhang or Meissner) can reach together the magical number 13 at Worlds.

 

[flying camel]

I think Flatt is are best bet only because she can hit the jumps. That's what it comes down to. But Rachael needs to work on other aspects of her skating. I feel like she has taken a step back. Remember last year she was trying to look so sophicaed with her red dress and her french twist. What happen? Maybe her programs will grow on me, but I did not like what I saw at SA. As far as the others. I would not be surprised if Mirai pulls out of NHK. I rewatched SA and it clearly looks like the ankle was bothering her. I actually think Kimmie looked pretty good. I noticed lots of improvements. I like her LP. We have to wait and see how Wagner does this season. She is usually pretty reliable with the jumps. I am thinking Rachael, Wagner of maybe Kimmie for worlds. But who knows until Nationals. Maybe Alissa will ride her momentum from her medal at Canada and make the team.

 

[bekalc]

I think Rachael should spend an hour a day working on figures. it will improve her speed etc and I think that it's the speed flow accross the ice that will hold her back.

 

[Mathman]

By the numbers

Well, just going by the results so far this season, the top two U.S. ladies scored 157.92 (Alissa Czisny) and 155.73 (Rachael Flatt). This would have placed them 7th and 8th at last year's worlds.

But Alissa beat world silver medalist Caroline Kostner. But then again Miki Ando withdrew from the long program at worlds. Hard to see how Alissa and Rachael will move up. But you never know. Alissa was great at Skate Canada, but still left some points on the table. She has left room in her program to upgrade her 3T-2T to a 3T-3T. :yes:

Anyway, whatever happens is OK with me. If the U.S. ends up will only two representatives at the Olympics, that will open up a space for someone else. I just noticed that Lithuania has a skater named Beatrice Rozenskaite(!) That will help me get over my disappointment in learning that Canada's Elladj Blade is actually Balde.

 

[Tonichelle]

MM - you are so odd.

 

[R.D.]

But you never know. Alissa was great at Skate Canada, but still left some points on the table. She has left room in her program to upgrade her 3T-2T to a 3T-3T.

...and give her another big opportunity to fall again? Wouldn't be a smart move on her part IMHO.

We JUST DON'T KNOW at this point. I cannot emphasize that enough. Time and time again people jump on the preliminary (that is, SA/SC/other GP) results to try and predict what will happen later in the season (i.e. nationals, worlds). And time and time again strange things have happened. My only "prediction" is that at 2009 Nationals the pressure is going to be intense, and I think there will be a lot of nerves and tentative skating out there. Maybe someone will bring it, but I think it might be a repeat of 2006 Nationals (where I think EVERY ONE of the top competitors made a major mistake).

I say USFS should send whoever is most reliable/consistent, and has proven themselves over the past two seasons, to worlds, even if it is not the top two at Nats.

 

[flying camel]

It will be realy sad if we only have one lady at the Olympics.

 

[Medusa]

Perhaps next week everything will be alright again. The US-girls will have super-outings in the following weeks and everyone can celebrate. The two best will make it to Worlds, claim the Championship and the Vice-Championship and come Olympics you will have three spots and can rule the World (or at least the Ladies' podium).

Honestly, before last worlds lots of you guys were lamenting the fact that the baby-ballerinas couldn't go to worlds because they were too young and the US will lose one spot because of the horrific and completely unfair age-rule.

Now these miracle-kids will all be eligible - but somehow we are back to worrying about enough spots again? I really hoped we were done with this.

Give them time and just relax a bit. Watch Jeff Buttle at Skate Canada 2007, at Cup of Russia 2007 and then his Worlds programs. Or watch Verner at TEB 2007 and then his European-outing.

It will be realy sad if we only have one lady at the Olympics.

Oh come on, not going to happen! Even Finland has two spots most of the time, and that with a bunch of girls who rarely have the full set of triples.

 

[Sylvia]

Don't know if this Rachael Flatt article by Phil Hersh (published before Skate America) was ever posted on GS, but here's the link:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-22-skate-hershoct22,0,6078784.story

I think Rachael should spend an hour a day working on figures.

If you read the article, I don't think she has that extra time to spare.

Relevant article excerpt:

Her day begins at 5 a.m., followed at 6:30 by the first of four 45-minute skating sessions. Flatt then goes to school for five hours, returning to the rink for ballet or stretch class at 12:50 p.m. and the next three on-ice sessions with coach Tom Zakrajsek at 1:15, 3:05 and 4. Twice a week she goes to the Olympic Training Center.

Somehow she manages to get her homework done and be in bed by 9:30 p.m.

 

[ks777]

I am waiting for Ashley Wagner to bring it. I think Alissa Czsny has the best shot if she went relatively clean. Kurt Browning said "Alissa is the best in the world if she didn't have to jump" on CBC. but why the judges don't give her the higher PCS then?

 

[bekalc]

If you read the article, I don't think she has that extra time to spare.

She needs to make the time..Her speed and flow accross the ice will really hurt her against the top ladies. This needs to be improved ASAP. Figures is one of the best ways to make that happen.

 

[Ms.Anthrope]

Kurt Browning said "Alissa is the best in the world if she didn't have to jump" on CBC. but why the judges don't give her the higher PCS then?

She does have to land those triples if she wants to get high PCS. Don't we often argue that falling should reflect on PCS as well? IIRC, wasn't it one of the reasons why people were upset that Kostner's PCS was too high considering how few triples she landed in 2008 Worlds?

 

[ks777]

She does have to land those triples if she wants to get high PCS. Don't we often argue that falling should reflect on PCS as well? IIRC, wasn't it one of the reasons why people were upset that Kostner's PCS was too high considering how few triples she landed in 2008 Worlds?

well have you seen Patrick Chang PCS at skate canada? He messed up 4 jumps yet his PCS were about 7 points higher than Evan who had two URs but relatively clean and about 12 points higher than Ryan Bradley who skated clean. I think that's just not right. then Alissa should have gotten as high PCS as Rochett, in my opinion.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^^

Most of the PCS scores, imo, are just opinions. Some do have some quantifyable aspects to them like basic edges and turns, etc. But so much is in the eye of the beholding judge.

The judges have been around for some time. They know who 'performed' well that competition. The skaters are all Seniors. It's just enough to grade them by comparison a la the 6.0 system.

and btw, your opinion is just as good as theirs, especially if you were a skater, andif you are not hung up on favorites and nationalities.

 

[dorispulaski]

I'm not giving up on any of them. After all, both Ryan Bradley and Alissa Czisny won medals this weekend. And Shawn Sawyer won the LP. Who'd have predicted it?

And as an old Paul Wylie fan, who'd have predicted his Olympic medal (not to mention Shizuka Arikawa).

I'm just praying none of these great skaters is injured.

 

[vlaurend]

You just can't predict who will be in top shape for Worlds by looking at the first event of the season. There is a process that every skater goes through each season and each skater works through her own process on her own timeline. The ideal scenario is that the skater learns from her mistakes in each competition and peaks right in time for Nationals and Worlds. The last thing we need is for our best skaters to be peaking now and burning out by Nationals.