Ladies LP - actual competition

[R.D.]

It's not about whether Caroline will skate as well at World's as she did here if she had the chance, or whether Alissa will finally have a clean skate there. It's about the apparently unfair judging of Caroline and Alissa at National's -- one big rationale for holding up Alissa was that she'd have better potential to help get three spots for the Olympics. That doesn't make bad judging less bad, but it makes it maybe more understandable. But based on 4CC results we can see how fallacious that line of thinking is. Caroline's score here is 3 points higher than Alissa's personal best from three seasons ago, back when her lipping and UR's weren't penalized as they are today, and Caroline's PB is 5 points higher still, which would come easily if at least one of her 3-3's would get ratified, and she was close on her two attempts here, at least closer to fully rotating them than the jumps Alissa got downgraded on. So heck yeah, I'd say Caroline has a better chance of delivering the programs she did here (and also at National's) at World's, than Alissa has of doing two programs much better than she did here at 4CC.

10 pages of arguing boiled down to one paragraph. (I agree with you, BTW)

The job of the US Ladies going to the Worlds is to earn 13 points for the following all important National.

I do not think that a combo of Alissa and Rachael is impossible to earn 13 points.

It's certainly not impossible. However, given the results at 4CC (7th and 9th, respectively) it's not looking too good. Throw in the European ladies and at least Kostner will prevail. I mean, both skaters will have to put two solid programs down to even put themselves in such a position and we all know how likely that is, especially for Alyssa. Still though, if Meissner could win 2006 worlds, I guess I can't rule anything out...

 

[bekalc]

You are all missing the boat.

Ashley Wagner won the free skate at U.S. Nationals, crushing Flatt, Czisny and Zhang. Ashley is by far the best bet for the U.S. team at Worlds.

In the Grand Prix series, total points for U.S. ladies were

Flatt 321.79

Wagner 316.69 (She was robbed -- according to my scoring she should have got 325.62.)

Czisny 308.95

Zhang 307.34

If Ashley had cmpeted at Four Continents, I am pretty sure she would have scored about 178.36, putting her ahead of Adasa for the bronze medal. (OK, maybe only 177.29.)

I know the UASFSA is kicking itself for marking Ashley so low in the SP at Cleveland. For all Ashley fans out there, we'll see what's what and who's who at Junior Worlds! :yes:

Ugh, Mathman have you seen how Ashley has scored in the GP, at Four Continents last year and at Worlds. Ashley tends to get tight and underrotate when she is nervous. She wasn't nervous in the long at Nationals because she was way far back. Plus who knows with those callers.

As for the Skate Canada thing, Zhang skated very poorly at Skate Canada, whereas Alissa skated well. Zhang got better in France, and was even better at Nationals. IF you want to look at Pontential you also have to look at what Caroline got at the GPF last year, which is around what she got at Four Continents.

I got that Alissa/Caroline's scores were pretty close this year on the GP, and so I was actually fine with the idea of seeing who skated the best at Nationals. But still I still trusted Zhang more than Alissa given their past, and the fact that Zhang always gets a bit better as the season progresses.

 

[Mathman]

I got that Alissa/Caroline's scores were pretty close this year on the GP...

But did you get that Ashley's scores were better than either? :yes:

 

[champs]

This is my first ever post in the entire 4CC section and all I want to say is, Mathman, please do not jinx Ashley, because she's my favorite lady!

 

[LeCygne]

But did you get that Ashley's scores were better than either? :yes:

That's true, but there really is no argument that can be made for Ashley to be on the World team. She screwed up majorly in the SP, and that's what cost her. There's no way to say she didn't deserve the scores she got in the SP. Yes she won the LP, but she did it with a bit of help from the judges. She had multiple shaky landings and a step out on a lutz whereas Rachael and Caroline both skated clean. Ashley's LP wouldn't have gotten 110+ internationally.

Even if she were to do amazingly at JW, because of her Nationals performances, her situation is different from Caroline's. That's why people are making the case for Caroline to be on the World while no one is arguing for Ashley.

 

[bekalc]

But did you get that Ashley's scores were better than either? :yes:

Ugh, Ashley didn't do better than Rachael on the GP, nor did she do better than Caroline.... And last time Ashley went to Four Continents it was disasterous because of the downgrades. Ashley is far worse at underrotation than Zhang is.

 

[ANW]

seriously alissa will be history after the worlds, i don't see any chance she will be at the podium in 2010 nationals

 

[R.D.]

seriously alissa will be history after the worlds, i don't see any chance she will be at the podium in 2010 nationals

Well, no matter what happens from here on out, she is the 2009 national champ.

 

[flying camel]

Come on you guys, lets stop with the gloom and doom and keep it positive. I am just going to hope for the best. Lets hope the crowd gets behind our two girls and helps them skate well enough to get 13. I do admit they need some help.

 

[Mathman]

That's why people are making the case for Caroline to be on the World while no one is arguing for Ashley.

Well, OK...but she who laughs last laughs best. We'll see what happens next year!

seriously alissa will be history after the worlds...

...joining Sonia Henie, Katarina Witt and Michelle Kwan. All history.

This is why Alissa should skate in the Universiade in a couple of weeks. She has a pretty good chance of winning (depending on who goes for Japan). Build up the old resume for when COI starts up again next year.

But all seriousness aside, both Alissa and Rachael skated pretty much up to their potential at Four Continents. Alissa didn't fall in the LP and Rachael hit all of her stuff. What we saw is what we are going to get (best case scenario) at Worlds. They will need help from other skaters ahead of them to make the 6th-7th cutoff.

 

[Particle Man]

Ugh, Mathman have you seen how Ashley has scored in the GP, at Four Continents last year and at Worlds. Ashley tends to get tight and underrotate when she is nervous. She wasn't nervous in the long at Nationals because she was way far back.

Agreed. Ashley has not been scored well internationally, she'd have longer odds at succeeding than Alissa. Mathman was way off on this one.

All this is true. But none of it justifies holding up Alissa at National's. The judging of a competition should solely be based on the performance of that day, not the past or future, if a sport wants to be taken seriously as a sport.

If FS wants to be taken seriously as a sport, it also needs to get rid of anonymous and incomprehensible judging, get rid of continuing international corruption, and hold judges accountable for marks. And if that happens, maybe threads with 48 pages of "wuzrobbed" will be less common.

And by the way, it's completely stupid to make the case that Alissa was given a gold medal for the purpose of sending her to worlds. It makes no sense at all. Rachael was above Caroline, Rachael is dependable. If all they cared about was Worlds, they would have given dependable Rachael the gold medal, securing her spot. Alissa and Caroline, regardless of being 2/3 or 3/2 would then have had to use 4CC as a final test.

If Alissa was "given" the gold medal, it was a sentimental gesture for the fact that Nationals were in Ohio, and that she did the best she ever did at Nationals after many years of skating. And sorry, I don't buy the "ladies not girls" argument.

 

[feraina]

I know the UASFSA is kicking itself for marking Ashley so low in the SP at Cleveland. For all Ashley fans out there, we'll see what's what and who's who at Junior Worlds! :yes:

I'm disappointed at you, Mathman, for this departure from your usually commendably rational arguments! You make it sound like the judges held her down in the SP, whereas she really took herself out of contention! She singled the combo, which made it a mandatory -3, she flutzed and under-rotated and flipped out of the 3Z, so she was lucky to net one point there, even the 2A was scratchy. The judges nevertheless gave her the third highest PCS (behind Alissa & Rachael, ahead of Mirai & Caroline), despite all the jumping passes being botched.

Then in the LP, she was really lucky to win it. She only attempted six triples, the first 3Z was both flutzed, under-rotated, and flipped out of. She should've gotten no more than 1 point for it, as in the SP, instead of 4, and then she would've actually dropped down to 4th instead of winning the LP. In the LP, she had the second highest PCS, just after Alissa, so I don't see any holding down there either. BTW, I do think that she fully deserves her high PCS, especially in the SP. Her presentation has improved vastly this season, Priscilla Hills has done wonders with her!

Ashley has a history of under-rotating and flutzing, which was much more evident and heavily penalized on the GP circuit this year than any of the other US girls, except Mirai, who really had a bad season (Caroline & Rachael both flutz, but they typically only under-rotate the 3-3 combo, which Ashley isn't even attempting anymore). I think she was too generously judged at National's if anything. Unless she really fixes her jumping problems, I don't see her winning the JW over Caroline if both deliver.

 

[R.D.]

I can understand wanting Zhang on the team but Wagner?? She has been more inconsistent than even Alyssa this season!

 

[R.D.]

But all seriousness aside, both Alissa and Rachael skated pretty much up to their potential at Four Continents. Alissa didn't fall in the LP and Rachael hit all of her stuff. What we saw is what we are going to get (best case scenario) at Worlds. They will need help from other skaters ahead of them to make the 6th-7th cutoff.

Yup.

I am just going to hope for the best. Lets hope the crowd gets behind our two girls and helps them skate well enough to get 13. I do admit they need some help.

You're right. American skating fans have no other choice and our world team needs all the support (and help from other skaters messing up) that it can get.

 

[bekalc]

I can understand wanting Zhang on the team but Wagner?? She has been more inconsistent than even Alyssa this season!

Yep!

 

[R.D.]

I notice that Kim Yu Na got bigger applause than Rochette did in Vancouver (Canada!). It will depend on the composition of the LA crowd as well (will there be mostly Americans? or will there be a huge Japanese and/or Korean contingent there?)

 

[Tonichelle]

Build up the old resume for when COI starts up again next year.

...COI isn't around anymore... SOI is the only show left... of that type of skating show, anyway.

 

[Particle Man]

You're right. American skating fans have no other choice and our world team needs all the support (and help from other skaters messing up) that it can get.

Wrong. People do have a choice. They can choose to stand behind our 2-week-old National champion, or choose to throw her to the wolves. People are already making their choice in this thread.

 

[screech]

I'm starting to think a change of thread title is in order, since this thread is called 'Ladies LP - actual competition.' Where is the talk of the competition? All I'm seeing is 'so and so should go and not so and so because of such and such.'

In any case, congrats ladies! Top 3 for worlds should be pretty unsurprising, unless Carolina gets in there, but great job everyone. Cynthia was my highlight - so nice to see her attack back and a 5 triple program. Has she done that since she won her national title in 2004?

 

[bekalc]

Wrong. People do have a choice. They can choose to stand behind our 2-week-old National champion, or choose to throw her to the wolves. People are already making their choice in this thread.

She's not my National Champion. As far as I'm concerned she's National Champion on paper only. I have nothing against Alissa personally, but I'm not going to sit back and say that Alissa deserves to be National Champion.

And I'm not throwing Alissa to the wolves, I'm throwing the judges who judged the long program at Nationals to the wolves, there's a big difference there.