Ashley: Not as easy and powerful as the GPF performance but still very good. She hit all of her elements cleanly and given the injuries and illness, she did exactly what she needed to do: delivered a solid error-free program. I'm happy for her and completely agree with her score.
Agnes: Everybody is fussing about her being in 2nd but I'm actually okay with it. It's not like she's 3 or 4 points ahead of Mirai. It's less than a point. Her lutz and 3-3 were great and the fall on the 2A was unlucky. I like Agnes but I'm highly doubtful she'll maintain her position. She's known for being very unstable in the LP so I'm thinking she'll drop from 2nd to 3rd or possibly 4th or lower depending on how others skate.
Mirai: Definitely an improvement! She didn't have the fire/spark throughout the performance but there was enough there to let you know this is not the Mirai of 2011-2012. She attacked her jumps; that 3-3 was the best I've seen from her since 2008. No doubt about the rotation, good height, great coverage and speed. I think she lost focus on her spins, particularly the layback (traveled) but overall, she was wonderful. I think 3rd is a comfortable spot for her and hopefully skating last will be a good thing as well, especially if she's solid. The judges will know exactly what she's up against...I think she'll pull it off and move up to 2nd.
Courtney: The camera angle really lets you see how much air she gets...it's impressive. However it's sad that she gets that much height and still URs her jumps (her 3T in the combo was <). She's still very all over the place when she skates, very clunky, a bit sloppy and very unrefined...I'm not a fan of her skating.
Christina: Breaking through requires that you skate cleanly so I guess there's no one to blame here...but even with the mistake on the spin I thought she was a bit underscored. I figured she'd score 60 but no such luck. I'd have had her ahead of Courtney. Her 3-3 was lovely and so was the program, but the jumps were a little tight. Hopefully she'll have a good LP and get out of 5th place...
Yasmin: I'm happy for her. Her SP is lovely and it's good to see her give a solid performance. I love those transitions into her 2A...
Gracie: The media has done a number on Gracie. People expect her to do so well b/c they hype her through the roof: the 3-3s, the Rippon lutz, perfect practices, working with Zoueva, "changes" made since COR...that all sounds great and leads you to believe Gracie is this rock solid competitor when in fact she's been anything but that this year. I can't say I'm surprised with how she skated, especially after seeing the terrified expression she had before she got started. The judges were generous and kept her within striking distance of the top 5. Maybe she'll be able to pull off a strong LP with no pressure now, but a lot of people would have to suck for her to make it to worlds this year. I wouldn't rule out 3rd or 4th though...
Angela: So sad she can't get her SP together. Last year she jumped from 16th to 8th so maybe with a strong LP (which she's known for) she can move up. She 10th now so she might be able to move up to 6th or 5th. She's another one who will never break through if she can't manage to deliver cleanly in the SP. If she'd been clean she would probably be in 4th or 5th right now...
Caroline: I do feel really sorry for her. By her standards, that was a great performance. In realtime, the 2nd 3L looked URed but not worthy of a DG. I thought her 3F might be iffy b/c she started rotating a little late. Even with the jump errors and the slowness of her skating, I thought she'd get at least a 50-52. It's obvious they don't want her to sneak into 4th like she did last year b/c then they'd have to give her a GP or send her to 4CC. They want those spots for the newer/competitive girls. I feel sorry for her. She's actually been pretty strong this season in terms of her jumps; it's just that her basics are so bad she gets hammered on PCS and receives very few GOEs. This might be her last appearance at nationals...
Haley: Even with the mistakes I thought she was gorgeous. I saw her a few months back (a clean performance of that program) and was amazed by how graceful and elegant she is. She has a very classic 70s look about her skating...she'd fit right in with Dorothy and Peggy. I love and definitely appreciate her style. Plus she's really sweet; she thanked me for my support on Twitter!
The LP will be a dogfight. As long as Ashley is solid, she's the winner...as she should be. No one is close to matching her consistency or international cred right now so she needs to be on that team. Hopefully she's gotten over her 3L-2A hump and her energy/stamina will hold up. I think she'll be okay though...
I don't expect Agnes to hold onto 2nd. She's just not a strong LP skater so if she manages to deliver strongly, I'll be shocked. I'm feeling good about Mirai but I'm worried about her too, mainly b/c of her cold. You could tell how sick she was at the press conference. She was coughing the whole time. That could cause issues in terms of stamina.
Christina has the potential to move up but she'll need a repeat of SA to get to the podium. I think a strong performance from Courtney could land her 4th or 5th depending on others. Gracie will need every point to move up. She's 10+ points back which means she'll have to be near perfect and will need others to make mistakes if she wants to move into the top 3 or 4. If she's clean I expect a massive score from the judges to help her leapfrog everyone else onto the podium...but they're damn fools if they send her to worlds this year. 4CC? Sure. Worlds? They'll regret it. Angela has the ability to pull herself up a few spots as well if she's clean, which she usually is.
This will be an interesting LP, that's for sure. Can't wait!