2017 Four Continents Men SP

[frida80]

Only Mao is still active?

You know, one day someone is going to look at the archives and see a 4CC thread with bajillion pages and start reading thinking who knows what happened ... only to encounter us

Three competitors from Mexico, or all the three Korean ladies share the same name, Kim?

I've no idea!

Does it relate to this topic at all?

Of course it's related. People have asked why is this competition would top ranked skaters go to this competition. In 2009, 4CC was held in Vancouver in the same arena that would be used for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. Yuna Kim, Joannie Rochette, and Mao Asada all medalled at this competition. The next year, the same women were on the Olympic Podium. Perhaps it's just a coincidence, since Yuna and Mao were heavy favorites going in, but it does show that knowing the ice beforehand may help on the big day.

 

[sallycinnamon]

Of course it's related. People have asked why is this competition would top ranked skaters go to this competition. In 2009, 4CC was held in Vancouver in the same arena that would be used for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. Yuna Kim, Joannie Rochette, and Mao Asada all medalled at this competition. The next year, the same women were on the Olympic Podium. Perhaps it's just a coincidence, since Yuna and Mao were heavy favorites going in, but it does show that knowing the ice beforehand may help on the big day.

All the heavy favourites for the podium in the ladies were from outside Europe, plus everyone expected Yuna and Mao on the podium, so that these three ladies were on the 4CC then at the Olympic podium is not a big surprise.
If you check 4CC in 2001 SLC it was very different. None of the men or women competed at the Olympics or finished on the podium a year later. In the men's the two heavy favourites were from Europe, but neither Timothy Goebel competed at 4CC. The women were even more interesting, because neither Kwan nor Hughes competed there. It seems like as if 4CC wasn't such an important event back in the early 00's.

 

[snowflake]

Found something interesting when I decided to look up 4CC 2009 in Vancouver.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/fc2009/CAT002RS.HTM

One of them gender switched and is now competing as a man?

 

[frida80]

All the heavy favourites for the podium in the ladies were from outside Europe, plus everyone expected Yuna and Mao on the podium, so that these three ladies were on the 4CC then at the Olympic podium is not a big surprise.
If you check 4CC in 2001 SLC it was very different. None of the men or women competed at the Olympics or finished on the podium a year later. In the men's the two heavy favourites were from Europe, but neither Timothy Goebel competed at 4CC. The women were even more interesting, because neither Kwan nor Hughes competed there. It seems like as if 4CC wasn't such an important event back in the early 00's.

It just started in 1999, so it really wasn't. It's only growing in importance now.

I still think it's important since Joannie also managed medal here and the Olympics. Of course she also had home ice advantage, but then again so did Patrick.

These are the men's results. Knowing the ice and having a home advantage didn't help Patrick. Maybe it helped Evan.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/fc2009/CAT001RS.HTM

 

[4everchan]

It just started in 1999, so it really wasn't. It's only growing in importance now.

I still think it's important since Joannie also managed medal here and the Olympics. Of course she also had home ice advantage, but then again so did Patrick.

These are the men's results. Knowing the ice and having a home advantage didn't help Patrick. Maybe it helped Evan.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/fc2009/CAT001RS.HTM

Patrick was a kid in 2010... 19... and had been injured for most of the period leading to the games. I was disappointed as I thought he could fight for a podium based on his results at the previous WC but when his injury was mentioned in the fall, and if I am correct, it was the only major injury he sustained in his career, I didn't put too much hope on him. Placing 5th with Plushy and Lambiel competing was a great achievement for the kind of health/training he had had... so yeah...

I am just telling the story as I don't think here that Patrick lost much momentum with 2010 with his injury... Sochi : we can agree to cry on this one... that was very unfortunate for Patrick.

 

[Mrs. P]

I have added season's best score (both ISU and non-ISU when applicable). For the sake of discussion, here's how they rank at the moment.

Hanyu
Uno
Chen
Chan
Jin
Ten
--
Brown
Tanaka
Reynolds
Nguyen
Ge
Yan
--
Kerry
Hochstein
Yee
Rakimgaliev
Martinez
Kim
-- (The last two groups are somewhat fluid due to score variations between non-ISU seasons' best and ISU season's best)
Lee (June Hyeong)
Tsao
Lee (Shiyeong)
Wong
Dodds
--
Ip
Lee (Henry)
Webster
Chew
Tang

***

I expect to see some major place switching in the top 2 groups (and Kerry,Hochstein and Yee in Group 3 could make a surprise appearance in the penultimate group)...it should be interesting to watch.

 

[TontoK]

I don't see many picking Nathan Chen.

I gotta say he had the Eye of the Tiger at US Nats.

I like a guy who can compete. Can he maintain through 4CC and World's?

I'm interested in finding out.

 

[NoNameFace]

I don't see many picking Nathan Chen.

I gotta say he had the Eye of the Tiger at US Nats.

I like a guy who can compete. Can he maintain through 4CC and World's?

I'm interested in finding out.

I have sort of dilemma with this...and quite a few with other things, it's always a problem - either you select randomly or have some 'logic', I'm still not decided on mine, whether to make an assumption that everybody goes clean

 

[Tavi...]

I don't see many picking Nathan Chen.

I gotta say he had the Eye of the Tiger at US Nats.

I like a guy who can compete. Can he maintain through 4CC and World's?

I'm interested in finding out.

What do you mean? Not picking him to win?

Almost everyone predicts he'll medal - 2 pick him to win and the rest are split between 2 and 3. I think one person put him 4.

 

[OS]

Ten pages ten pages ten pages ten pages ... denis ten tenten ten TEN!!!!

We need more unpredictable finish!!! You never know! It may ends up like the Olympics but with Nathen some how sneak in there!!!

 

[TontoK]

What do you mean? Not picking him to win?

Almost everyone predicts he'll medal - 2 pick him to win and the rest are split between 2 and 3. I think one person put him 4.

Yes. I meant picking him to win.

Those quads looked really solid and consistent at USNats, and folks who were at the practices indicated that he didn't miss many even then.

Not to downplay the excellent qualities of the others, but I think a seven quad competition will be very hard to beat.

Of course, that's said without knowing if he'll complete them all... or that the others will go clean, for that matter.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yes. I meant picking him to win.

Those quads looked really solid and consistent at USNats, and folks who were at the practices indicated that he didn't miss many even then.

Not to downplay the excellent qualities of the others, but I think a seven quad competition will be very hard to beat.

Of course, that's said without knowing if he'll complete them all... or that the others will go clean, for that matter.

Yuzu with fewer quads (3-4) will still score as well, if not better, as Nathan with seven quads. That's why folks aren't picking him to win. If Yuzu wasn't here, more folks would have picked Nathan to win.

 

[da96103]

I expect to see some major place switching in the top 2 groups (and Kerry,Hochstein and Yee in Group 3 could make a surprise appearance in the penultimate group)...it should be interesting to watch.

I hope Julian Yee will attempt the 4S. Saw his practice clip. Seems his air position is better compared to last year. So many cats were sacrificed for him to land his jumps last year.

 

[Tavi...]

Yes. I meant picking him to win.

Those quads looked really solid and consistent at USNats, and folks who were at the practices indicated that he didn't miss many even then.

Not to downplay the excellent qualities of the others, but I think a seven quad competition will be very hard to beat.

Of course, that's said without knowing if he'll complete them all... or that the others will go clean, for that matter.

There is no doubt Nathan is an extremely good competitor and if he executes both his programs cleanly - whether he does a 4 or 5 quad FS - his BV will be very high. But as Mrs P pointed out, a high BV value isn't everything.

In my mind, there are a couple of other factors at play that could affect results.

First are the various strategies he, Yuzu, Shoma, et al might have. If Yuzu's main goal is to win Worlds, he may not be peaking now and Nathan and others could beat him, especially if Nathan simply wants to win everything in sight and force the judges to take even more notice of him. On the other hand, if Yuzu wants to put upstart Nathan - who beat him in the FS at GPF - back in his place prior to Worlds, the competition may play out quite differently. Nathan himself may dial back a bit and just aim to medal - not necessarily win - if his real goal is to peak for and win Worlds.

The other factor is the judging.

Nathan's GOE and PCS at Nats were extremely high - far higher than they were at the GPF. I'm sure part of that was USFS signaling to the rest of the world: hey, look what we've got here - a real medal threat! It's an open question, though, what PCS / GOE the 4CC judges will award him for two clean programs with a total of 6/7 quads. He may well get new PBs for clean skates - we know that occurs fairly often at 4CC. But awarding him PCS /GOE similar to what he got at Nats would be tantamount to signaling a changing of the guard. Are the judges ready to do that? I don't know, but it will be interesting to see.

 

[HanDomi]

The other factor is the judging.

Nathan's GOE and PCS at Nats were extremely high - far higher than they were at the GPF. I'm sure part of that was USFS signaling to the rest of the world: hey, look what we've got here - a real medal threat! It's an open question, though, what PCS / GOE the 4CC judges will award him for two clean programs with a total of 6/7 quads. He may well get new PBs for clean skates - we know that occurs fairly often at 4CC. But awarding him PCS /GOE similar to what he got at Nats would be tantamount to signaling a changing of the guard. Are the judges ready to do that? I don't know, but it will be interesting to see.

And I hope judges are not going to overscore him on GOE, because we can all agree his jumps are not top world quality and don't deserve the same range of GOE as Hanyu or Chan

 

[4everchan]

re Nathan : he also was awarded level 4 for many of his non-jumping elements which during the grand prix didn't get rewarded that highly... either he has improved them drastically or us nationals tech panel was kind.... so with bigger GOE and PCS you get a lot more points for Nathan at US nationals than potentially what he usually scores internationally....

However, maybe the international judges will follow up on this.. who knows?

I also think that it's a bit soon to assume that Nathan will always repeat his stellar performance. Even Yuzu since last year, with two stellar back to back performances hasn't been steady since then....

 

[Yatagarasu]

I blame 4everchan for my inability to post my predictions. If only I knew what Patrick will decide ... gah.

 

[Marin]

I blame 4everchan for my inability to post my predictions. If only I knew what Patrick will decide ... gah.

Can I know what Patrick has to decide ? I was out for the last couple of weeks from skating news ?

 

[Yatagarasu]

Can I know what Patrick has to decide ? I was out for the last couple of weeks from skating news ?

Ah, welcome back, we missed you!

And a possible second quad in the SP, which would bring him up to 2+3. 4everchan put that thought into my head and now I just .... gah!

 

[4everchan]

I blame 4everchan for my inability to post my predictions. If only I knew what Patrick will decide ... gah.

it's okay i am used to being blamed for everything

tbh when i posted my predictions i thought... wait... if Patrick does 2 quads in SP would i place him higher?