2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[Fluture]

If eu-sal is too much risk, than perhaps she’s not as technically advanced as some Russian novices, who do them routinely. That’s the point.

No, it is not. You're looking at it in a vacuum. I'll be repeating myself but oh well:

Let's look at Muravieva's goal at this JGP. Realistically, it wasn't necessarily to win at all costs but first and foremost to earn a second stage and the chance to qualify for the final. For this, you need (and have always needed) at least silver with a good score. Now, being in the lead after the SP and Petrosyan looking very rough in all practices, it was clear her best chance at this would be to skate as cleanly as possible. Especially since the judges seemed to appreciate her PCS quality the most in the SP - but that's an advantage you lose the minute you make mistakes. So, taking all this into consideration, the smartest and most sensible choice is to reduce risk of falling as best you can. And to do this, you create a layout with, ideally, minimal changes so as not to disrupt muscle memory, but also a BV close enough to your previous one. 3-3 combos are ALWAYS more risky than a 3-2-2, for EVERYONE. Even Kamila or Sasha or Anna.

So, knowing all this, WHY would you ever attempt a second 3-3 in the FS if you can get this close (remember, the difference is 0.30 points. 45.66 to 45.99!) without it? It's not about what she can or cannot do, or her level of consistency on 3-3 combos, it is about making the best strategic decision towards fulfilling your goal while minimising all possible risks. And frankly, it's a quality Plushenko was severely lacking in last season, so I was pleasantly surprised to see that he seemed to have learned at least something from all those disasters. (now watch me jinx this and have him go back to moronic decisions at the next comp lol)

That's the point: The risk of falling (or making other smaller mistakes) in a 3-3 combo is inherently higher than in a 3-2-2 combo, no matter your level, no matter your technical proficiency. So, if you're at a JGP event where you only want to place second and get a score as high as you can, you do not go all out if the potential reward is so small. You would, at the JGPF for example, or the Junior Nationals. But not here.

As for whether or not she deserved a second event, we'll have to agree to disagree here. We had four Russians here. She beat the scores of everyone but the girl with the three quads and she scored above one of the only potential qualifiers from other countries (Levito). Why not give her a second stage, especially if Petrosyan, who she beat here, already has one? And it's not like the assignments are set in stone either. If, miraculously, all five girls at JGP Russia beat Muravieva's scores, maybe we'll see them drop her. But as long as that doesn't happen.....

 

[Jontor]

I also like to point out that we don't really have all the facts why Frolova lost her JGP spot.
It could be that she has a small injury or something.
Or...perhaps she doesn't WANT it, if she is planning long term for a nationality change.

 

[nussnacker]

No, it is not. You're looking at it in a vacuum. I'll be repeating myself but oh well:

Let's look at Muravieva's goal at this JGP. Realistically, it wasn't necessarily to win at all costs but first and foremost to earn a second stage and the chance to qualify for the final. For this, you need (and have always needed) at least silver with a good score. Now, being in the lead after the SP and Petrosyan looking very rough in all practices, it was clear her best chance at this would be to skate as cleanly as possible. Especially since the judges seemed to appreciate her PCS quality the most in the SP - but that's an advantage you lose the minute you make mistakes. So, taking all this into consideration, the smartest and most sensible choice is to reduce risk of falling as best you can. And to do this, you create a layout with, ideally, minimal changes so as not to disrupt muscle memory, but also a BV close enough to your previous one. 3-3 combos are ALWAYS more risky than a 3-2-2, for EVERYONE. Even Kamila or Sasha or Anna.

So, knowing all this, WHY would you ever attempt a second 3-3 in the FS if you can get this close (remember, the difference is 0.30 points. 45.66 to 45.99!) without it? It's not about what she can or cannot do, or her level of consistency on 3-3 combos, it is about making the best strategic decision towards fulfilling your goal while minimising all possible risks. And frankly, it's a quality Plushenko was severely lacking in last season, so I was pleasantly surprised to see that he seemed to have learned at least something from all those disasters. (now watch me jinx this and have him go back to moronic decisions at the next comp lol)

That's the point: The risk of falling (or making other smaller mistakes) in a 3-3 combo is inherently higher than in a 3-2-2 combo, no matter your level, no matter your technical proficiency. So, if you're at a JGP event where you only want to place second and get a score as high as you can, you do not go all out if the potential reward is so small. You would, at the JGPF for example, or the Junior Nationals. But not here.

As for whether or not she deserved a second event, we'll have to agree to disagree here. We had four Russians here. She beat the scores of everyone but the girl with the three quads and she scored above one of the only potential qualifiers from other countries (Levito). Why not give her a second stage, especially if Petrosyan, who she beat here, already has one? And it's not like the assignments are set in stone either. If, miraculously, all five girls at JGP Russia beat Muravieva's scores, maybe we'll see them drop her. But as long as that doesn't happen.....

I think it would make it easier if you read some of my other comments before writing your next reply. I wasn’t trying to make this particularly about Sofia, when I said that, which is as clear in my response several times.

I don’t mind her getting a second stage, I don’t actually care who gets how many stages. I meant that this stage alone is not something that was impressive enough to give her a second one, more that several factors about her previous performances were considered. The fact the she’s a bronze medalist from JrNats certainly played a role, right? She’s at least promising a quad, that’s better than not doing any? Don’t want to repeat myself, but it’s not just about this competition in her case, just imo.

Yes, of course if we’re talking about absolutes, 2-2 combo is easier than 3-3. Comparing absolutes like that - is looking at it at a vacuum. That’s not what I’m trying to do.

Risk levels are different for each skater. What I mean is rather that the risk for her particularly seemed to be way too high to go for it, while for many others that risk is very low, so low, where they don’t even consider it to be a risk at all. Yannow. Sofia thinks: “I go for another 3-3, I might mess it up”. Sasha thinks: “pfft, another 3-3? Easy peasy, I can do like 10 more.” Sofia A. thinks: “Me doing a 3-2-2? Not in this galaxy, Eteri will send me to a kindergarten group”. Joking, obviously.

I think though for many Russian female skaters having 2 3-3 combos has become something very routine, it’s almost surprising when we don’t see them, especially from younger guns like Sofia. That’s just that. I am surprised she feels it’s that risky, that she/her coaches think she won’t be able to execute it/her program with it under pressure. In the grand scheme of things none of this matters obviously!

If we’re on the spot assignment topic, I don’t understand why Kulikova gets a spot either, while Berestovskaya does not. Many things with spot assignment don’t seem to make sense. In almost every regard B. seemed like a better option than K. She’s more well known, she’s somewhat landing her quad. She even did 2 in a program last season. No club politicking can be assumed, since I believe both are from Davydov. Just seems strange to me, but again, Rusfed always knows better what they’re doing.

 

[halulupu]

I also like to point out that we don't really have all the facts why Frolova lost her JGP spot.
It could be that she has a small injury or something.
Or...perhaps she doesn't WANT it, if she is planning long term for a nationality change.

Or a senior assignment. It doesn't help her to be stuck in juniore

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

Maybe Anna F. should also post a blurry video of an underrotated quad she did once in training to show that she has "high scoring potential". Maybe then they would give her a JGP spot. (Sorry, don't mind me, just being salty on Anna's behalf here.)

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

I think though for many Russian female skaters having 2 3-3 combos has become something very routine, it’s almost surprising when we don’t see them, especially from younger guns like Sofia. That’s just that. I am surprised she feels it’s that risky, that she/her coaches think she won’t be able to execute it/her program with it under pressure. In the grand scheme of things non

Sorry, not looking for a fight here, but I really don't get your argument. In one of your posts on the previous page you yourself explain that Sofia would have Zayaked had she done another 3S in her JGP FS. It's not that she feels it's too risky, a 3S in an Euler combo simply would have been an invalid jump. Why on earth would she do it???

 

[spicymacaron]

I saw a collection of rumors on another site, that Anna has a leg fracture(how is this possible with the scheduled performances?!?) and that Aliona is in bad shape and her 3A is nonexistent. Has anyone else seen these rumors? I'm hoping they're completely fake...

 

[nussnacker]

Sorry, not looking for a fight here, but I really don't get your argument. In one of your posts on the previous page you yourself explain that Sofia would have Zayaked had she done another 3S in her JGP FS. It's not that she feels it's too risky, a 3S in an Euler combo simply would have been an invalid jump. Why on earth would she do it???

This seems like a never ending discussion… I kind of regret commenting on it at all.

I would have expected Sofia to be able to do a 2A instead of her first 3Sal, and then do -Eu-3Sal later in the program. This way she maximizes her triple content BV and there’s no threat of Zayak.
I don’t agree that it would have been too hard to swap 3S for 2A “because of transitions” as some users previously assumed, since there were no transitions going into 3S, so the change wasn’t impacting any transitions.
That’s why I assume going for that Euler combo was probably too difficult/risky for her. She also didn’t do it last year from what I remember, which likely means the combo is quite new to her, that’s why she doesn’t feel confident with it.

 

[nussnacker]

I saw a collection of rumors on another site, that Anna has a leg fracture(how is this possible with the scheduled performances?!?) and that Aliona is in bad shape and her 3A is nonexistent. Has anyone else seen these rumors? I'm hoping they're completely fake...

I think trusting any rumors is not worth it at this point, when we’ll see everything with our own eyes in 3 days!
There are always some rumors flying around, rarely they are true especially if they come from anonymous sources. Rumors coming from journalists/Russian FS bloggers are generally at least more reliable.
Team Tut have been unusually super quite this off season, let’s hope everyone is well and ready.

 

[spicymacaron]

I agree, just a little unnerved because apparently said rumors came from sports.ru and the same person who said Sasha and Aliona were going back to Eteri. But yes, I'm going to hope for the best!

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

I would have expected Sofia to be able to do a 2A instead of her first 3Sal, and then do -Eu-3Sal later in the program. This way she maximizes her triple content BV and there’s no threat of Zayak.

Thanks for the clarification, now I understand your proposed layout. Tbh, I think the few extra tenth of points just were not worth it. Sofia probably does run-throughs of her FS with the 4S all the time, doesn't make sense to switch the jumps around in competition like that. Especially since her skating and elements are of such high quality that her one triple-triple free program comfortably beat three out of four free programs with quads. Really quite impressive, isn't it?

 

[pete]

I really don't understand the point of this whole discussion because of a possible 0,8 points difference in Base Value

 

[sclloyd]

I agree, just a little unnerved because apparently said rumors came from sports.ru and the same person who said Sasha and Aliona were going back to Eteri. But yes, I'm going to hope for the best!

I mean, Anna told the entire world herself when she injured her toe this summer, I don’t think she would hide a more serious injury and get logged to perform in the JGP opening ceremony if this rumor were true.

As for Aliona, I don’t really know of TT would forgive her for not returning the 3A when that was such a serious constraint for her return to the team. Eteri doesn’t seem like the type to break promises. Also, we saw Aliona nearly land one in the TT show even before this summer’s training and she’s absolutely in better shape now than she was then, just by comparing musculature alone.

 

[Amei]

I saw a collection of rumors on another site, that Anna has a leg fracture(how is this possible with the scheduled performances?!?) and that Aliona is in bad shape and her 3A is nonexistent. Has anyone else seen these rumors? I'm hoping they're completely fake...

I doubt Shcherbakova currently has a leg fracture considering there's been no notice of her not participating in test skates and it was just announced in the last day or so that she is going to be doing a performance next week. The only way I could foresee in truth to that rumor is that she had a leg fracture at some point in the offseason but I feel its safe to assume its healed at this point given the announced performance next week, I doubt Eteri or the Fed would risk her health if she wasn't. Kostornaia, we shall see in a few days what kind of condition she's in; based on last season we know that if left to her own devices so to speak that she might not get in the condition she needs to be in, but at the same time didn't she have a half-decent attempt at a triple axel before the offseason break?

 

[Minz]

We will find out answers to almost everything in about 2 days.

After that, the madness will begin.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

I really don't understand the point of this whole discussion because of a possible 0,8 points difference in Base Value

Welcome to the RLT!

 

[Skatesocs]

Huh. I'd have thought the discussion was about why she didn't do a max BV 7 triple LP (without a +3Lo combo). Usually, the max BV 7 triple LPs contained a 2A+3T.

So hers would look like

3Lz+3T
3F
3Lz+2T+2Lo
2A+3T
3S
3Lo
2A

 

[nussnacker]

I really don't understand the point of this whole discussion because of a possible 0,8 points difference in Base Value

Thanks for the clarification, now I understand your proposed layout. Tbh, I think the few extra tenth of points just were not worth it. Sofia probably does run-throughs of her FS with the 4S all the time, doesn't make sense to switch the jumps around in competition like that. Especially since her skating and elements are of such high quality that her one triple-triple free program comfortably beat three out of four free programs with quads. Really quite impressive, isn't it?

gah… it’s not as much about BV difference as about her inherent capabilities. And as I said, none of this matters in a grand scheme of things.

Overall though, in Russian ladies figure skating every little bit counts. As several people mentioned, her score was very good for the performances she put out. She just as easily could’ve ended up under Petrosian.

As for training a layout with 4S, as mentioned by Plushenko: she didn’t have a single successful attempt before test skates. I don’t know how they train at AoP, but do you really suggest she’s so trained to do a layout with a jump she can’t even land? Sounds a bit absurd to me. maybe it’s some psychological trick to get her land it faster? I don’t know, but I doubt it.

 

[nussnacker]

Huh. I'd have thought the discussion was about why she didn't do a max BV 7 triple LP (without a +3Lo combo). Usually, the max BV 7 triple LPs contained a 2A+3T.

So hers would look like

3Lz+3T
3F
3Lz+2T+2Lo
2A+3T
3S
3Lo
2A

Or this for example, backloading would also help.
I think the discussion was mainly revolving around the content which would require minimal changes to her current layout.

 

[Skatesocs]

I think the discussion was mainly revolving around the content which would require minimal changes to her current layout.

Following exactly her layout, it would look like:

2A
3S
3Lo
3F+2T+2Lo
3Lz+3T
2A+3T (can set up in a similar way to how she enters the 3F, I imagine, with some minor modifications)
3Lz

LOL, btw, I'm curious where the ChSq is. This is very much a "max BV, minimum effort" layout with one spin in the middle of all the jumps to get to the backloading bonus, and the other elements all crammed in after the jumps are done. Used to be done a lot of the times with 7 triple LPs, but to be fair it used to be done with a full backloading bonus back then...