2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[Jeanie19]

I haven't been paying attention to the point system for countries to qualify, but Georgia is pretty much set as the 10th country right?

Georgia qualified and I think Ukraine is the tenth place.

 

[lariko]

I really hope Zhou gets to skate the SP. i just love it

 

[Kittosuni]

I'm starting to wonder if this is not quite so in the bag for the Russians as I once thought.

People are talking about the Japanese, but...

It's certainly within the realm of possibility that USA could win both phases of the men, both phases of the dance (remember that the French did not qualify for the team event, and the Russians may not want to risk the extra mileage for their top dance team, given his injury). If they can manage thirds in the women and pairs... again, not out of the realm of possibiity... then that's a pretty good outing.

I still think the Russians are favored, but this thing isn't a slam dunk by any stretch.

Russia was also the clear favorite in 2018 until Kolyada bombed big time so anything can happen.

I dont think there will be a lot of movements in Dance and Pairs but the Women's especially the Men's Ranking is going to make the difference.

 

[Andrea82]

I haven't been paying attention to the point system for countries to qualify, but Georgia is pretty much set as the 10th country right?

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/26711-isu-communication-2443/file

 

[lurkerghost1]

I'm starting to wonder if this is not quite so in the bag for the Russians as I once thought.

People are talking about the Japanese, but...

It's certainly within the realm of possibility that USA could win both phases of the men, both phases of the dance (remember that the French did not qualify for the team event, and the Russians may not want to risk the extra mileage for their top dance team, given his injury). If they can manage thirds in the women and pairs... again, not out of the realm of possibiity... then that's a pretty good outing.

I still think the Russians are favored, but this thing isn't a slam dunk by any stretch.

Yes but at the same time I can see a possibility where Japan is close to USA too. If Japan wins both men’s segments while USA is 2nd, 2nd in ladies while USA is 4th (Gubanova in 3rd), and 3rd in pairs while USA is 4th, they have a 8 point advantage. So it all comes down to ice dance then, and if S/K do skate then the Americans are in 2nd and Japan could be maybe 7th in the RD and 4th in the FD (beating Kazakova/Reviya in this case, with Guignard/Fabbri not qualifying to the free). Then Japan is one point ahead.

What I am pretty confident about is that these three teams will be the podium. Canada seemed to be challenging but with the scores Schizas, the pairs, and G/P got this fall they’re just too far back even if Messing goes clean

 

[Ziotic]

Russia was also the clear favorite in 2018 until Kolyada bombed big time so anything can happen.

I dont think there will be a lot of movements in Dance and Pairs but the Women's especially the Men's Ranking is going to make the difference.

Russia wasn’t a clear favourite for 2018. It was very much a two horse race.

Kolyada took them out on the first round but even if he hadn’t and everything else stayed the same Russia still likely wouldn’t have won as they would have needed 10 points in that segment just to match Canadas total.

 

[TontoK]

Yes but at the same time I can see a possibility where Japan is close to USA too. If Japan wins both men’s segments while USA is 2nd, 2nd in ladies while USA is 4th (Gubanova in 3rd), and 3rd in pairs while USA is 4th, they have a 8 point advantage. So it all comes down to ice dance then, and if S/K do skate then the Americans are in 2nd and Japan could be maybe 7th in the RD and 4th in the FD (beating Kazakova/Reviya in this case, with Guignard/Fabbri not qualifying to the free). Then Japan is one point ahead.

What I am pretty confident about is that these three teams will be the podium. Canada seemed to be challenging but with the scores Schizas, the pairs, and G/P got this fall they’re just too far back even if Messing goes clean

Yes, absolutely. I mentioned Japan in my original post. It depends on how the skaters perform, and there are many wild cards... and not just among the medal contenders.

Can the Canadian pairs sneak in between the Russians and the Americans/Japanese? I think the German pair has also been fairly good this season. Which Morisi will show up, because he could literally place anywhere in the SP, as can Messing, same for Boyang and the Italians.

And what about G/P? Will they skate the team event? They can upset the apple cart, too.

 

[Blades of Passion]

So, not much about the battle for Gold in this event has changed. The key thing for USA remains - Nathan Chen MUST skate both the SP and LP of the Team Event in order for USA to have a realistic chance. USA winning is likely going to require 1st place in both the SP and LP of Men's, and Russia placing poorly in that event. They can not risk putting Vincent Zhou in, he hasn't shown consistency and even at his best he won't beat the Japanese guy if they are at their best.

 

[lurkerghost1]

So, not much about the battle for Gold in this event has changed. The key thing for USA remains - Nathan Chen MUST skate both the SP and LP of the Team Event in order for USA to have a realistic chance. USA winning is likely going to require 1st place in both the SP and LP of Men's, and Russia placing poorly in that event. They can not risk putting Vincent Zhou in, he hasn't shown consistency and even at his best he won't beat the Japanese guy if they are at their best.

For some reason you continue insisting this even though it's not true. If Hanyu skates the short but not the free (likely) then Vincent vs. Uno is an even match up:
Personal Best:
Vincent - 198.50
Shoma - 197.36

Season's Best:
Vincent - 198.13
Shoma - 187.57

Season's average:
Vincent - 182.06
Shoma - 183.46

Yuma would have been a bigger threat to Vincent with his score of 197.49 this season at GP Italy, but after finishing 3rd at nationals he is unlikely to skate the team event.

Besides, the more important points:
1) the chances of it coming down to 2 points between any two teams (aka the difference between Vincent/Shoma going 1-2 or 2-1) is super low. In the last two team events, the margin between all the teams has been at least 4 points. Vincent could finish last in the free skate (super unlikely even if he bombs) and that's only a 4 point margin since he gets 6 points minimum. This is not Kolyada in the short.
2) Vincent did very well at the last olympics. that matters a lot when assigning team events.
3) Men's individual short is the day after the men's team free program. Nathan in the individual event is their best chance for gold, a much better chance than gold in the team event which is based almost entirely on how Mikhail Kolyada performs in the short. No way is USFS going to risk that individual gold chance just to deny Vincent an Olympic team silver/bronze medal.
If Vincent is healthy he will skate the free. For Nathan, the team potential medal is worse than the individual, but for Vincent the team silver/bronze is marginally more likely than the individual silver/bronze and neither gold is likely for him. Vincent will not turn down the free skate when USFS offers it to him because it's his best chance of reaching his maximum Olympic medal potential.

 

[Greengemmonster]

I really hope Zhou gets to skate the SP. i just love it

Yes!!!!!!! It's absolutely beautiful and he throws his heart and soul into it!!!!

 

[el henry]

I love Sinnerman and I believe Jason would dazzle in the team event with that program.

It doesn’t matter, sadly from my POV.

If there is one lock in the team event, it is that Nathan will skate the SP. And only the SP.

Not because USFS cares one whit about denying or allowing anyone else a team medal, but because Nathan is not skating back to back days. And I don’t blame him. And USFS won‘t make him.

 

[Skater Boy]

Yes but at the same time I can see a possibility where Japan is close to USA too. If Japan wins both men’s segments while USA is 2nd, 2nd in ladies while USA is 4th (Gubanova in 3rd), and 3rd in pairs while USA is 4th, they have a 8 point advantage. So it all comes down to ice dance then, and if S/K do skate then the Americans are in 2nd and Japan could be maybe 7th in the RD and 4th in the FD (beating Kazakova/Reviya in this case, with Guignard/Fabbri not qualifying to the free). Then Japan is one point ahead.

What I am pretty confident about is that these three teams will be the podium. Canada seemed to be challenging but with the scores Schizas, the pairs, and G/P got this fall they’re just too far back even if Messing goes clean

I cringe when I think of Canada but I hope for a miracle. They could be the spoilers if they can somehow beat the US in pairs and dance.

 

[lariko]

Yes!!!!!!! It's absolutely beautiful and he throws his heart and soul into it!!!!

It’s absolutely magic live! That it gives goosebumps for two years in a row is a testimony to how beautiful it is. I loved some programs last year that skaters brought back, but this year it felt stale… but Zhou’s one is just so compelling. Doesn’t hurt that I am a sucker for a solid story/character going on in the program.

Aww… but if Zhou gets to skate free and add Olympic medal to his achievements, I will drink to that.

 

[Colonel Green]

Yuma would have been a bigger threat to Vincent with his score of 197.49 this season at GP Italy, but after finishing 3rd at nationals he is unlikely to skate the team event.

If you're looking at somebody to skate the free while Hanyu does the short, it's notable that Yuma finished ahead of Shoma in the free at nationals.

 

[Blades of Passion]

If Hanyu skates the short but not the free (likely) then Vincent vs. Uno is an even match up

No it isn't an even matchup. Vincent was destroyed by Uno at NHK and Uno hasn't reached his potential peak yet with his jump layout for the season. Vincent has no room to improve over what he did at Skate America and likely will not repeat that performance again, as he's now trying to live up to that career-best moment and doesn't have the mental fortitude to do it.

To be the most competitive you don't want an "even matchup" either. You want to select the team that has the highest chance of winning. That team inherently means Nathan skating both segments. You're very incorrect that it's unlikely to come down to 2 points between any two teams, that can happen in many scenarios and it's completely anti-competitive to act like it's some unforeseen possibility. IF Russia dominates after the SP, then maybe you can "give up" at that point, since there might not be enough ground to be gained in the LP of this extremely poorly structured event. It would need to be a blowout though, to the extent that Russia bombing the Men's and Pair's LP would still allow them to win even if USA places the best that could possibly be expected in the LP.

Also, this talk that Vincent would be "denied" an Olympic medal by Nathan skating both segments is ridiculous. Only 2 of the disciples are allowed to be split. If Vincent is doing the team event then it means HE is robbing either a woman or a dance team of their Olympic medal, as they would then not be allowed to compete.

 

[pearly]

Not because USFS cares one whit about denying or allowing anyone else a team medal, but because Nathan is not skating back to back days. And I don’t blame him. And USFS won‘t make him.

I really don't understand why they didn't put men's FS on Day 2 of the team event in order to give them at least one day to rest for the individual SP.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I really don't understand why they didn't put men's FS on Day 2 of the team event in order to give them at least one day to rest for the individual SP.

I don’t understand why the team event is before the individual

 

[mskater93]

No it isn't an even matchup. Vincent was destroyed by Uno at NHK and Uno hasn't reached his potential peak yet with his jump layout for the season. Vincent has no room to improve over what he did at Skate America and likely will not repeat that performance again, as he's now trying to live up to that career-best moment and doesn't have the mental fortitude to do it.

To be the most competitive you don't want an "even matchup" either. You want to select the team that has the highest chance of winning. That team inherently means Nathan skating both segments. You're very incorrect that it's unlikely to come down to 2 points between any two teams, that can happen in many scenarios and it's completely anti-competitive to act like it's some unforeseen possibility. IF Russia dominates after the SP, then maybe you can "give up" at that point, since there might not be enough ground to be gained in the LP of this extremely poorly structured event. It would need to be a blowout though, to the extent that Russia bombing the Men's and Pair's LP would still allow them to win even if USA places the best that could possibly be expected in the LP.

Also, this talk that Vincent would be "denied" an Olympic medal by Nathan skating both segments is ridiculous. Only 2 of the disciples are allowed to be split. If Vincent is doing the team event then it means HE is robbing either a woman or a dance team of their Olympic medal, as they would then not be allowed to compete.

I don't think USFS is going to sacrifice a good chance of Chen winning individual Gold for a slim chance at team Gold. Period. Full stop.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

If you're looking at somebody to skate the free while Hanyu does the short, it's notable that Yuma finished ahead of Shoma in the free at nationals.

Not to mention he has a solid 10 pt lead for free score internationally

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Russia was also the clear favorite in 2018 until Kolyada bombed big time so anything can happen.

I dont think there will be a lot of movements in Dance and Pairs but the Women's especially the Men's Ranking is going to make the difference.

Not sure how Russia was the clear favourite... Canada had the reigning World silver medalist (and eventual World champion that year) and reigning World bronze medalist in ladies, two-time World champs Duhamel/Radford, Virtue and Moir, and Patrick Chan. Yes, Kolyada underperformed, but asking him to beat Chan in both segments was a tall order. Russia lost ground with Z/E in pairs, but also made it up when Nagasu edged out Daleman.

You could argue that Russia and Canada were on par, and both the heavy favourites (given they had no real weak discipline on paper, in 2018) - it was not shocking that Canada won given the calibre of their entries. In 2014 of course it was a different story when Russia was better in ice dance and Canada was much weaker in ladies (not to mention they were beneficiaries of home scoring).

In this upcoming Olympics, Russia is again the HEAVY favourite. Ladies they'll win both segments, Pairs they could very well win both segments, Kolyada is stronger than last time, and Ice Dance they've got S/K pushed over the North American teams and could end up winning both segments with the absence of France. As with Valieva, it's pretty much a gold medal lock as every other country has one or more weak disciplines that will comfortably distance Russia from them. The only thing that could mess it up is if S/K are injured and Stepanova/Bukin have to step in, and if the pairs really underdeliver in the SP. Kolyada having a bad SP would also make them vulnerable - but a lot of things have to not go their way for them to lose gold.