Mao has a triple axel. She is very special, yada yada. I thought Ahley skated very well, have watched their 4cc SP and Lps just once, did not look up scores. I think either lady getting gold would be acceptable. Did Ash really have home ice advantage that will be forgotten in Nice? Seriously, with the total pack of ladies at Worlds, if top women skate well, and Ash does 2 perfect programs, can she manage bronze?
She did leave some points, didnt do the double axel/triple, right? I see Caro doing well, Mao doing as well as 4cc or better, Alissa popping/falling two triples at least.
So we have Leonova, ? what other Russian ? Polina Korobeynikove or will it be Ksenia at Worlds? then, Kiira and Akiko who I expect to bring it. Is Ashley viable for bronze?
How do you all see Nice poium after 4cc's? I am surprised Mao was not given gold with the axel, a good if slow skate and of course rep/sympathy marks. I guess that's more a factor at Nice than Colorado.
Could Ashley threaten for silver? O am I just dreaming? Opinions?
In her LP, Mao:-
1. Under-rotated her 3A
2. Hand down on her Lutz
3. Doubled out on her Salchow
That's why she lost. There is no mystery to it. If she had skated clean, she would have won no matter what Ashley did. Moreover, Ashley has beaten Mao before - at the NHK Trophy 2010, by over 10 points (i.e. a bigger margin than at 4CC). Just goes to show that no matter how big the reputation, if you suffer a slump in form as Mao has done, then you will beaten by other good skaters. Other skaters who have beaten Mao during her slump include Rachael Flatt, Kiira Korpi, Caroline Zhang, Elene Gedevanishvili, and quite a number of others. So, losing at 4CC can hardly come as a surprise to anyone.
I can't see Mao regaining her world title this season and unless Kostner has a meltdown, I can't see Ashley winning either. However, I think Ashley is in with a shot of winning the silver or bronze. As for Mao, she simply has too many technical and other problems at the moment and is no where no getting back to her best. I would also add that:-
1. Some say she should keep working on her 3A, but I am not convinced about that. Her success rate in properly landing 3A's over the last 2 seasons including this one is very poor. In my opinion, she should drop the 3A as she would be better off ensuring that she gets the rest of her skating right. Look at how well Kostner has done by scaling back on elements that she was having problems with and by focusing on improving other areas to make up for it.
2. She still can't get the 3Z right and flutzes more often than not.
3. She has problems with her 3S
4. She has still not regained a 3X3 combination
5. She still seems low on confidence overall.
6. Some keep referring to her being under weight. I don't know if there is a weight problem.
7. She has only recently lost her mother.
Given all that, I really don't think it is any surprise that Mao lost 4CC. As stated, I can't see her regaining her world title this season. Lets see how things turn out next season for her. However, if she cannot finally resolve the technical issues she has had over the last 2 seasons once and for all by the end of next season, then I think she should seriously consider retirement. I just think it would be too close to the Olympics by that stage to turn things around. However, were getting ahead of ourselves. At this present juncture, I still think she can turn things around.
Finally, what I would not like to see Mao do if she cannot turn things around is continue like Fumie Suguri, declining inexorably year on year. I just find that kind of thing very sad. Hence, if she finds that she gets to a point where she realises she is not going to get back to where she was at the end of the 2009/10 season, then she should just call it day. Age, injuries, etc, catch up with everybody in the end. That's why most skaters retire at around the age Mao is now because for most skaters, the period between the ages of 15-22 are their best years. For example, only 1 ladies skater since World War 2 has won the Olympic title over the age of 22 (i.e. Shizuka Arakawa). There are those like Shizuka, Akiko, Carolina Kostner, etc, that are able to defy the general trend of decline post age 21/22, but they are the exception to the rule as it were (usually because they have been fortunate enough to remain relatively injury free). It works differently for different skaters. The plain fact of the matter is that figure skating takes its toll on the body and as the injuries accumulate over time, it just gets more and more difficult to remain competitive.