Chartrand eyes Grand Prix podiums for 2015-16

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yeah it seems kinda an arbitrary guess. So many examples of surprises last season.

With Alaine, I would much rather see a long program with fully rotated jumps rather than a 3A attempt. She still gets ding'ed on her flip and lots of URs. Best to get the 3Lz-3T down pact first.

I agree. Her issue is the stamina in her program which leads to UR jumps later on. With more and more improvement in her training (Cricket Club should hopefully do wonders, with Orser), she will have more strength and stamina to fully execute her triples as well as she can at the beginning of the program. I think it's her presentation that needs the most work - like, her overall skating/carriage needs more finesse and elegance, but it's hard being labelled a primarily technical skater because you can do 3-3 and 3-1/2-3 combos and then focusing on the artistry. She does skate with attack and gradually more and more conviction (kinda reminds me of Hongo).

 

[anyanka]

Or we could get Meagan Duhamel to sub in. She's already got a triple lutz/flip/salchow/toe.

You can bet "Jillian" (as TSL calls her) would be all over that. Wanna bet she'd train a quad combo, too?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

You can bet "Jillian" (as TSL calls her) would be all over that. Wanna bet she'd train a quad combo, too?

LOL, given that "Jillian" is pretty much super woman, I wouldn't be surprised if she learned one and forced Eric to have to learn one.

Speaking of which... I wonder if Chartrand would ever train a 4S. Occasionally she URs, but after her opening 3Z and half loop, she seems to usually get her 3S (to quote Scott Hamilton) with NO SPEED! Probably not, but good on her for going for the 3A.

 

[cheerknithanson]

LOL, given that "Jillian" is pretty much super woman, I wouldn't be surprised if she learned one and forced Eric to have to learn one.

Speaking of which... I wonder if Chartrand would ever train a 4S. Occasionally she URs, but after her opening 3Z and half loop, she seems to usually get her 3S (to quote Scott Hamilton) with NO SPEED! Probably not, but good on her for going for the 3A.

How can she mix up the name of Meagan with Jillian?

And I really like the fact that Alaine is training so hard on the 3A. Shows she wants to try harder and more complex skills.

 

[Layback11]

How can she mix up the name of Meagan with Jillian?

And I really like the fact that Alaine is training so hard on the 3A. Shows she wants to try harder and more complex skills.

I think it's a nickname. Don't have any idea where it comes from...

Yeah, it's so great that so many NA ladies are trying 3As! Mirai and Courtney are both doing them in competition, and I'm not sure about Alaine, but she seems to be making progress with it. And that isn't counting Liza and Mao...that's the most there have ever been! (And that's not counting the fact that Gracie and Mariah are both training them as well!)

 

[ice coverage]

You can bet "Jillian" (as TSL calls her) would be all over that. ...

How can she mix up the name of Meagan with Jillian? ...

I think it's a nickname. Don't have any idea where it comes from...

TSL's nickname for Meagan is a reference to Jillian on The Biggest Loser.

 

[chuckm]

I'm not sure what your point is. I was merely stating that Chartrand would have to skate better and if she put out a 180 and Gold (who isn't exactly known for strong GPs) or Miyahara (who has scored below 180 in the past) really flub, then Alaine (or a number of other skaters) might defeat either of them. It's unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. I'm sure many of us would have said Hongo would need at least 185 to beat Pogorilaya who was the shoe in to win CoR.

Also by your same logic regarding Gold's scores, Chartrand at CoR was hit with 4 URs (and a lip), yet she still scored 110.82 points. So 115-120 isn't out of reach for her (and 120 is easily attainable if she is ever able to land the 3A).

As far as needing 120+ to medal... um, Polina scored 116 in her FS at Worlds last year and she was reigning 4CC Gold medalist. Point being, even the top skaters can have an off day - especially one as inconsistent as Gold - so if Chartrand skates better than her past best, there is the chance to win a medal. Almost every skater has at least one bad competition in a season and at least one very good competition in a season. Depending on when they bring out their best and when others falter, anything can happen. And Chartrand increasing her difficulty can only help her. Nobody expected her to win a GP bronze - until circumstances helped her win (namely a clean SP and people who were predicted to place ahead of her like Park/Nagasu, didn't).

I don't expect Alaine's PCS to go above 30/60, but I still think she can do enough to get up to 180 (clean SP would get about 63 points, cleaner FS than CoR would get about 117 points) which might be enough for a bronze -- given that 5 out of 6 Grand Prix bronze medals last year were won with scores below 180, and the highest anyone needed for bronze last year was 181.76, and the average score needed for a bronze last year was 176. So, yes, Chartrand must likely improve to about 180 to have a shot at bronze, but unless the ladies field monstrously improves compared to last season, your 185 figure is probably too high (statistically speaking). 180 would have been enough for 7th at Worlds last year... so I'm pretty sure it would stand a chance to medal on the GP.

Hmmmm. GOLD is inconsistent, eh? She never finished lower than 4th last year, at that was at WORLDS. She never scored lower than 179.38 and that was her first competition of the year, coming off a summer of touring. OTOH, she did two GP medals, bronze and gold, and she scored over 190 at two competitions (NHK and WTT) and 188+ at Worlds.

You speak of needing only 180 to win bronze medals, yet Chartrand has never scored higher than 172, and that was just once last year. She scored as low as 135 last year, and most of her scores were around 160. She was lucky to get bronze at CoR because half the field had been replaced with lesser skaters. CoR winner Hongo scored lower than Gold scored at SA to win bronze.

Bronze winners last year:

SA: 179.38 Gracie Gold - gold NHK 191.16, 4th Worlds 188.96
SC: 181.75 Satoko Miyahara - silver 4CC 181.66
CoC: 169.39 Kanako Murakami - 4th NHK 173.09, 7th Worlds 179.66
CoR: 172.00 Alaine Chartrand - 10th 4CC 161.22, 11th Worlds 161.18
TEB: 177.74 Ashley Wagner - silver SC 186.00, bronze GPF 189.50, 5th Worlds 185.01
NHK: 179.02 Satoko Miyahara - silver Worlds 193.60

Note that all of the other bronze medalists went on to score higher in their later events and all finished better than 8th at Worlds. Their bronze medal scores were the lows of their season, while Chartrand's was the high score of hers.

Polina scored 122.99 on her FS (184.02 overall) to win 4CC. 116.12 at Worlds was a lot higher than her GP FS scores of 110.95 and 112.83.
OTOH, Chartrand scored 110.82 in her CoR FS but that dropped to 102.72 at 4CC and to 100.94 at Worlds.

BTW, how is Chartrand increasing her difficulty? She has yet to get credit for her 3z+3t consistently in ISU competition, and her 2a+3t gets dinged for UR as well. If you're referring to the 3a, she isn't even close to mastering it, so attempting it is a huge risk. A clean SP can have only as good an impact as its followup FS.

Overall, I don't understand Chartrand's obsession with the GP. The focus of the season should be on Nationals, and preparing to do well there so as to earn a berth to Worlds, not on the early season, which is over in November. Once that berth is won, the goal is to have the best performance of the year at Worlds. That's what most elite skaters are aiming for. The Grand Prix is an opportunity to display programs before judges and audiences and work out the kinks for the important competitions later in the season. Sure, making the GPF is a goal for the very best skaters, but the scores are for the most part irrelevant.

 

[Sabrina]

In a way i'd like her to drop that 3A. Better focus on jumps she usually landed on 2 feet. Also i hope someone fixes her UR. A skater capable of gorgeous 3Lz3T should be able to perfectly do the other jumps...it's not her case. It felt as she lost the power after the first jumps. So I don't know whether it was a technique problem or a lack of force/stamina/nerves. I love her, and I hope she skates beautifully. Actually I prefer her above any other Canadian skater, except Kaetlin. Good luck, Alaine!

 

[chuckm]

Just noticed that Alaine and Kaetlyn Osmond are competing head to head against Mirai Nagasu, Courtney Hicks and Alena Leonova at Nebelhorn September 24-26. Now that should be interesting indeed!

 

[sabinfire]

TSL's nickname for Meagan is a reference to Jillian on The Biggest Loser.

I have no idea what that is, but I wouldn't want to be associated with something called 'The Biggest Loser'.

 

[Layback11]

I have no idea what that is, but I wouldn't want to be associated with something called 'The Biggest Loser'.

It's a weight loss competition show. Jillian is the host and in super good shape. This is, likely, a reference to the fact that Meagan is extremely muscular and athletic (like Jillian).

 

[cheerknithanson]

Just noticed that Alaine and Kaetlyn Osmond are competing head to head against Mirai Nagasu, Courtney Hicks and Alena Leonova at Nebelhorn September 24-26. Now that should be interesting indeed!

I DID notice it actually and I'm sort of pondering how it's going to go down.

 

[Dr. Jenn]

I have no idea what that is, but I wouldn't want to be associated with something called 'The Biggest Loser'.

The Biggest Loser is a popular TV show (with various iterations in several countries) on which contestants go through a variety of lifestyle changes/boot camps/etc. in order to attempt to lose massive amounts of weight (often hundreds of pounds). See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Biggest_Loser for more information

Meagan and Eric are referred to, by TSL, as Jillian and Bob, two of the trainers on The Biggest Loser. Jillian is known for being particularly intense, with a 'cut' body - hence the nickname for Meagan in particular. The nickname is meant to be complimentary.

 

[sabinfire]

That makes a bit more sense... "loser" in the sense of losing weight. So Duhamel/Radford are being referred to as weight loss coaches?

 

[Layback11]

That makes a bit more sense... "loser" in the sense of losing weight. So Duhamel/Radford are being referred to as weight loss coaches?

Yup, LOL. However, we have Alaine's thread...back on track, perhaps?

 

[cheerknithanson]

Yup, LOL. However, we have Alaine's thread...back on track, perhaps?

Yes. I'm very excited for her for this season.

 

[sabinfire]

Alaine is my top pick, if Osmond isn't in top form!

 

[chuckm]

Here are the summer scores and jump layouts for some of the Nebelhorn participants:

186.71 117.25 OSMOND Wild Rose 1st
SP 69.46 3f+2t, 3z, 2a
FS 117.25 3f+2t, 3lo-so, 3z, 2a+2t, 3f, 2s+1t+1lo, 2a

176.38 NAGASU US Collegiates, 1st
SP 58.46 3a<<↓, 3t+3t, 3lo
FS 117.92 3f!+3t<, 2a+3t<+2t, 3lo+2t, 3z<, 3s, 3lo, 2a

173.05 65.32, 107.73 HICKS Glacier Falls, 2nd (winner Gold scored 202.54)
SP 65.32 3t-to+3t, 3z, 2a
FS 107.73 3z-to+3t, 2a↓, 2a, 3f+2t, 3z-so, 3lo, 3s

168.96 CHARTRAND Minto, 1st
SP 56.60 3z+3t<<, 3lo, 2a↓
FS 112.36 3a<<↓, 3z+3t, 3lo, 3fe<<, 2a+1lo+3s, 3z<, 3s^2a

I don't have scores for Leonova, but she always comes well prepared. She was 2nd at last year's Nebelhorn, right behind Tuktamysheva, and scored 186.71.

 

[TheGrandSophy]

That makes a bit more sense... "loser" in the sense of losing weight. So Duhamel/Radford are being referred to as weight loss coaches?

Very quick and then let the thread get back to Alaine. D/R seem to be 'in' on the joke and not offended at all. In TSL's recent trip and in tweets to TSL (from what I recall) they themselves have used the nicknames.

 

[Jammers]

Hmmmm. GOLD is inconsistent, eh? She never finished lower than 4th last year, at that was at WORLDS. She never scored lower than 179.38 and that was her first competition of the year, coming off a summer of touring. OTOH, she did two GP medals, bronze and gold, and she scored over 190 at two competitions (NHK and WTT) and 188+ at Worlds.

You speak of needing only 180 to win bronze medals, yet Chartrand has never scored higher than 172, and that was just once last year. She scored as low as 135 last year, and most of her scores were around 160. She was lucky to get bronze at CoR because half the field had been replaced with lesser skaters. CoR winner Hongo scored lower than Gold scored at SA to win bronze.

Bronze winners last year:

SA: 179.38 Gracie Gold - gold NHK 191.16, 4th Worlds 188.96
SC: 181.75 Satoko Miyahara - silver 4CC 181.66
CoC: 169.39 Kanako Murakami - 4th NHK 173.09, 7th Worlds 179.66
CoR: 172.00 Alaine Chartrand - 10th 4CC 161.22, 11th Worlds 161.18
TEB: 177.74 Ashley Wagner - silver SC 186.00, bronze GPF 189.50, 5th Worlds 185.01
NHK: 179.02 Satoko Miyahara - silver Worlds 193.60

Note that all of the other bronze medalists went on to score higher in their later events and all finished better than 8th at Worlds. Their bronze medal scores were the lows of their season, while Chartrand's was the high score of hers.

Polina scored 122.99 on her FS (184.02 overall) to win 4CC. 116.12 at Worlds was a lot higher than her GP FS scores of 110.95 and 112.83.
OTOH, Chartrand scored 110.82 in her CoR FS but that dropped to 102.72 at 4CC and to 100.94 at Worlds.

BTW, how is Chartrand increasing her difficulty? She has yet to get credit for her 3z+3t consistently in ISU competition, and her 2a+3t gets dinged for UR as well. If you're referring to the 3a, she isn't even close to mastering it, so attempting it is a huge risk. A clean SP can have only as good an impact as its followup FS.

Overall, I don't understand Chartrand's obsession with the GP. The focus of the season should be on Nationals, and preparing to do well there so as to earn a berth to Worlds, not on the early season, which is over in November. Once that berth is won, the goal is to have the best performance of the year at Worlds. That's what most elite skaters are aiming for. The Grand Prix is an opportunity to display programs before judges and audiences and work out the kinks for the important competitions later in the season. Sure, making the GPF is a goal for the very best skaters, but the scores are for the most part irrelevant.

Gracie is inconsistent though. Often she will skate a great SP then bomb the long or do what she did at Worlds skate a terrible SP and take herself out of the running for a medal. If she wasn't so inconsistent she would have more then one measly win internationally in 3 years.