- Joined
- Aug 4, 2015
I thought it might be fun, with the Grand Prix less than a month away, to analyze the GP Assignments and outline who we think are the winners and losers of the draw.
Of course, draws barely mean anything in figure skating, a sport where anyone can beat anyone on ANY given day, but I just thought it would be fun to do to waste time.
For example, I'll get things started with a ladies GP analysis. I'll break down the fields, using my personal judgment, for each GP event below, and provide analysis later. You may disagree with my classifications, and that's totally ok.
Skate America-
Favourites: Mao Asada, Gracie Gold, Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Gabby Daleman, Kanako Murakami, Yulia Lipnitskaya
Dark Horses: Roberta Rodeghiero, Mai Mihara, So Youn Park, Sima Sakhanovich
Skate Canada-
Favourites: Satoko Miyahara, Evgenia Medvedeva
Contenders: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva, Mirai Nagasu
Dark Horses: Alaine Chartrand, Kaetlyn Osmond
Rostelecom Cup-
Favourites: Anna Pogorilaya, Elena Radionova
Contenders: Kanako Murakami, Yulia Lipnitskaya, Polina Edmunds
Dark Horses: Zijun Li, Roberta Rodeghiero, Elizabet Tursynbaeva
Trophee de France-
Favourites: Mao Asada, Evgenia Medvedeva, Gracie Gold
Contenders: Gabby Daleman
Dark Horses: Wakaba Higuchi, Maria Sotskova
Cup of China-
Favourites: Elena Radionova, Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva
Dark Horses: Kaetlyn Osmond, Zijun Li, Mai Mihara
NHK Trophy-
Favourites: Satoko Miyahara, Anna Pogorilaya
Contenders: Polina Edmunds, Mirai Nagasu
Dark Horses: Alaine Chartrand, Wakaba Higuchi, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Maria Sotskova
There are two types of tourneys here- top-heavy fields and depth fields. I think Skate America and Trophee de France are top-heavy, and what I mean by that is that there are three top-quality skaters (who likely expect to make the GPF) competing, and any one of those three could perform very well and finish third, which is NOT what you want when going for the GPF. Depth fields are those where I think there are two clear favourites and a wealth of competent athletes gunning for the podium.
Winners:
ANNA POGORILAYA: I see her as the biggest winner in the draw, because she's drawn two depth fields. She's drawn her home tourney, where she will win as long as she skates clean or very close to clean, and shouldn't finish lower than second unless something catastrophic happens (and it most definitely has in the past...) NHK is what I view to be a weaker field, and it's the exact same situation- Anna really should finish no less than second barring a disaster. Anna's known for her inconsistency but the skating gods have helped her out here. In short, she manages to avoid Medvedeva, Wagner, and Gold at both events.
SATOKO MIYAHARA: Like Anna, Satoko avoids both top-heavy events. Honestly, every draw is a win for Satoko because she's so incredibly consistent. Even though it's likely she'll lose to Medvedeva in Canada, her last event at home is a relatively easy event where anything less than second would be downright shocking. Expect Satoko to breeze into the GPF.
POLINA EDMUNDS: It's highly unlikely Polina will be able to get into the GPF. However, she's drawn the same events as Pogorilaya- Rostelecom and NHK. Both events are what i've classified as a depth field, where there's less heavy favourites and more challengers for the podium. I expect her to medal at NHK and she is definitely in the hunt for another one at Rostelecom. Keep in mind too that her GP mate Pogorilaya is prone occasionally to the epic collapse, which could benefit Polina at at least one event. Two medals in the GP series would be an outstanding result for the American.
Losers:
MAO ASADA: She's drawn both top-heavy events. As if that's not an uphill battle already, she's facing the two best American skaters... in America. Also at Skate America, which I personally believe to be the hardest field of the six, Gabby Daleman and Yulia Lipnitskaya are very eager to get on that podium. If Asada falters, she could not only be looking at third place, but fourth or fifth as well, effectively putting her out of the GPF race. Skate America is a pivotal tourney for her, as Trophee de France will be difficult to win as she faces Gold again as well as the reigning world champ.
GRACIE GOLD: She's drawn the exact same events as Mao Asada, which is already something she didn't want, but she's also drawn Ashley Wagner, who beat her at home at the Worlds, in America as well as the world champion Medvedeva in France. Assuming Medvedeva wins France, we are put in a very difficult position where it's unlikely we'll see both Gold and Asada at the GPF, which is a shame. Gold needs to bring her absolute best in order to get into the Final.
GABBY DALEMAN: The reigning Canadian silver medalist was a bright spot at worlds, and with a new 3Lz-3T combination, she looked to be in the hunt for medals this year in the GP. Unfortunately, she's drawn America and France... Just like Asada and Gold. A GPF berth was likely out of the question for her, but for someone who was probably expecting to have great chances for podium finishes in her events, she will likely be very disappointed. Never count her out, though. Gold and Asada aren't the most... consistently strong of the competitors.
BOTTOM LINE: anyone NOT named Gold or Asada shouldn't be too dissatisfied with their assignments, and should expect to qualify with solid performances. I think Skate America and Trophee de France, the two top-heavy fields, will be decisive in determining who gets to go to the Grand Prix Final. If Gold or Asada finishes third at Skate America, they face the gargantuan task of having to beat the other AND Medvedeva in France to qualify. The likeliest situation right now, then, is that one of Gold or Asada do not qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but once again, NOTHING can be ruled out in the sport of figure skating.
Hope you enjoyed that loooong post... Feel free to start discussion about either what I said or about another discipline. Have fun!
Of course, draws barely mean anything in figure skating, a sport where anyone can beat anyone on ANY given day, but I just thought it would be fun to do to waste time.
For example, I'll get things started with a ladies GP analysis. I'll break down the fields, using my personal judgment, for each GP event below, and provide analysis later. You may disagree with my classifications, and that's totally ok.
Skate America-
Favourites: Mao Asada, Gracie Gold, Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Gabby Daleman, Kanako Murakami, Yulia Lipnitskaya
Dark Horses: Roberta Rodeghiero, Mai Mihara, So Youn Park, Sima Sakhanovich
Skate Canada-
Favourites: Satoko Miyahara, Evgenia Medvedeva
Contenders: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva, Mirai Nagasu
Dark Horses: Alaine Chartrand, Kaetlyn Osmond
Rostelecom Cup-
Favourites: Anna Pogorilaya, Elena Radionova
Contenders: Kanako Murakami, Yulia Lipnitskaya, Polina Edmunds
Dark Horses: Zijun Li, Roberta Rodeghiero, Elizabet Tursynbaeva
Trophee de France-
Favourites: Mao Asada, Evgenia Medvedeva, Gracie Gold
Contenders: Gabby Daleman
Dark Horses: Wakaba Higuchi, Maria Sotskova
Cup of China-
Favourites: Elena Radionova, Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva
Dark Horses: Kaetlyn Osmond, Zijun Li, Mai Mihara
NHK Trophy-
Favourites: Satoko Miyahara, Anna Pogorilaya
Contenders: Polina Edmunds, Mirai Nagasu
Dark Horses: Alaine Chartrand, Wakaba Higuchi, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Maria Sotskova
There are two types of tourneys here- top-heavy fields and depth fields. I think Skate America and Trophee de France are top-heavy, and what I mean by that is that there are three top-quality skaters (who likely expect to make the GPF) competing, and any one of those three could perform very well and finish third, which is NOT what you want when going for the GPF. Depth fields are those where I think there are two clear favourites and a wealth of competent athletes gunning for the podium.
Winners:
ANNA POGORILAYA: I see her as the biggest winner in the draw, because she's drawn two depth fields. She's drawn her home tourney, where she will win as long as she skates clean or very close to clean, and shouldn't finish lower than second unless something catastrophic happens (and it most definitely has in the past...) NHK is what I view to be a weaker field, and it's the exact same situation- Anna really should finish no less than second barring a disaster. Anna's known for her inconsistency but the skating gods have helped her out here. In short, she manages to avoid Medvedeva, Wagner, and Gold at both events.
SATOKO MIYAHARA: Like Anna, Satoko avoids both top-heavy events. Honestly, every draw is a win for Satoko because she's so incredibly consistent. Even though it's likely she'll lose to Medvedeva in Canada, her last event at home is a relatively easy event where anything less than second would be downright shocking. Expect Satoko to breeze into the GPF.
POLINA EDMUNDS: It's highly unlikely Polina will be able to get into the GPF. However, she's drawn the same events as Pogorilaya- Rostelecom and NHK. Both events are what i've classified as a depth field, where there's less heavy favourites and more challengers for the podium. I expect her to medal at NHK and she is definitely in the hunt for another one at Rostelecom. Keep in mind too that her GP mate Pogorilaya is prone occasionally to the epic collapse, which could benefit Polina at at least one event. Two medals in the GP series would be an outstanding result for the American.
Losers:
MAO ASADA: She's drawn both top-heavy events. As if that's not an uphill battle already, she's facing the two best American skaters... in America. Also at Skate America, which I personally believe to be the hardest field of the six, Gabby Daleman and Yulia Lipnitskaya are very eager to get on that podium. If Asada falters, she could not only be looking at third place, but fourth or fifth as well, effectively putting her out of the GPF race. Skate America is a pivotal tourney for her, as Trophee de France will be difficult to win as she faces Gold again as well as the reigning world champ.
GRACIE GOLD: She's drawn the exact same events as Mao Asada, which is already something she didn't want, but she's also drawn Ashley Wagner, who beat her at home at the Worlds, in America as well as the world champion Medvedeva in France. Assuming Medvedeva wins France, we are put in a very difficult position where it's unlikely we'll see both Gold and Asada at the GPF, which is a shame. Gold needs to bring her absolute best in order to get into the Final.
GABBY DALEMAN: The reigning Canadian silver medalist was a bright spot at worlds, and with a new 3Lz-3T combination, she looked to be in the hunt for medals this year in the GP. Unfortunately, she's drawn America and France... Just like Asada and Gold. A GPF berth was likely out of the question for her, but for someone who was probably expecting to have great chances for podium finishes in her events, she will likely be very disappointed. Never count her out, though. Gold and Asada aren't the most... consistently strong of the competitors.
BOTTOM LINE: anyone NOT named Gold or Asada shouldn't be too dissatisfied with their assignments, and should expect to qualify with solid performances. I think Skate America and Trophee de France, the two top-heavy fields, will be decisive in determining who gets to go to the Grand Prix Final. If Gold or Asada finishes third at Skate America, they face the gargantuan task of having to beat the other AND Medvedeva in France to qualify. The likeliest situation right now, then, is that one of Gold or Asada do not qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but once again, NOTHING can be ruled out in the sport of figure skating.
Hope you enjoyed that loooong post... Feel free to start discussion about either what I said or about another discipline. Have fun!
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if her FS got the highest PCS.)
