If Kwan had been healthy for the Olympics?

[slutskayafan21]

I know this might be a silly topic at this point in time, but just curious what some of you think. Shizuka Arakawa won the Olympic Gold with a triple lutz-double toe in the short, and 5 clean triples in the long. If Michelle Kwan had been able to get healthy enough for the Olympic, if she really had made her programs more COP-friendly, and if she were able to do a clean short program combined with 6 clean triples in the long (the hypothetical most without a triple-triple) could she had won the elusive Olympic Gold? Of course that is assuming everyone else skated the same as they did.

 

[Mathman]

Gosh, that's an awful lot of ifs.

If you mean, what if Michelle had managed to hold body and soul together long enough to force herself through one more competition -- I would say, no, I would not expect her to make the podium.

But if by "healthy" you mean, somehow magically transported back to her state of health in 1999, then, yes, there would have been no competiton if the other skaters skated exactly as they did.

But in that case everything about the competition might have been different. For instance, Arakawa might have tried a little harder to attack the triple-triples that she was landing with ease in practice. (I really believe that camp Arakawa, seeing Sasha falter, decided to concede the gold to Slutskaya and have Shizuka just skate a safe enough program to win a medal for Japan -- their only medal of any kind in the whole Olympic games.)

Likewise, who can tell what effect Michelle's presence might have had on Slutskaya? Maybe Irina would have skated like she did in Moscow and closed out the competition altogether.

 

[kittyjake5]

Good topic but I think I will keep my comments to myself and just lurk, otherwise I will have to dust off my boxing gloves.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Gosh, that's an awful lot of ifs.

If you mean, what if Michelle had managed to hold body and soul together long enough to force herself through one more competition -- I would say, no, I would not expect her to make the podium.

But if by "healthy" you mean, somehow magically transported back to her state of health in 1999, then, yes, there would have been no competiton if the other skaters skated exactly as they did.

But in that case everything about the competition might have been different. For instance, Arakawa might have tried a little harder to attack the triple-triples that she was landing with ease in practice. (I really believe that camp Arakawa, seeing Sasha falter, decided to concede the gold to Slutskaya and have Shizuka just skate a safe enough program to win a medal for Japan -- their only medal of any kind in the whole Olympic games.)

Likewise, who can tell what effect Michelle's presence might have had on Slutskaya? Maybe Irina would have skated like she did in Moscow and closed out the competition altogether.

True there are alot of possible chain effect type "what ifs" that could also take place.

Mind you for Kwan to even manage a mid-60s short program, and a high-120s long program (to amass the kind of total to beat Arakawa's total) even with a 6-triple long her programs would have had to have been much more COP-friendly then those she skated at the 2005 Worlds, although reportedly they were. Too bad we never saw them to tell for ourselves though. Arakawa's 125 was a very big and impressive score for only 5 triples I would say however.

 

[Mathman]

Arakawa's 125 was a very big and impressive score for only 5 triples I would say however.

I think the judges wanted to make sure that Arakawa had enough points to put her ahead of Cohen -- while still leaving room for Slute if she had delivered a barn-burner.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Yes, i think that changing nothing, Michelle probably would have won, if she was clean. Obviouly that's what the judges wanted that night. Shizuka was not spectacular, no triple-triple and she won becasue both sasha and irina fell.

But if michelle WAS there, where woudl she have placed after the short? She would have had the same three jumps as everybody else, 3 lutz/2 toe, 2 axel and 3 flip. She woudl have been in the top four, probably third, instead of shizuka. If everything was the same, in the long and michelle skated clean with 6 triples or so, she would have won.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The IFS have it.

If Kwan was really healthy in 1998, she would have won the 1997 Worlds and the98 Olys, but she wasn't in top shape and it wasn't because of a broken toe but something more serious, imo.

The really BIG IF is, what would she have done IF she had won the 98 Olys?

Joe

 

[attyfan]

The only sure things about Kwan being healthy is that, no matter where she placed, somebody would be screaming that one skater (Michelle or some other) wuzrobbed.

Serioiusly, going into the ladies event, the skaters were aleady aware that the Games were becoming, not merely a splat-fest, but a dangerous one at that (Dan Zhang's fall was painful, and, D/L had to withdraw because the fall hurt her so badly) -- Michelle's withdrawal (IMO, again) just hammered home to the ladies the dangers involved, and that hammering would not have occurred if Michelle had been healthy. What the effects might have been are unknown, but if everyone skated better as they were not feeling so concerned about injury, I think it would have been better for everyone all the way around.

 

[slutskayafan21]

The only sure things about Kwan being healthy is that, no matter where she placed, somebody would be screaming that one skater (Michelle or some other) wuzrobbed.

Serioiusly, going into the ladies event, the skaters were aleady aware that the Games were becoming, not merely a splat-fest, but a dangerous one at that (Dan Zhang's fall was painful, and, D/L had to withdraw because the fall hurt her so badly) -- Michelle's withdrawal (IMO, again) just hammered home to the ladies the dangers involved, and that hammering would not have occurred if Michelle had been healthy. What the effects might have been are unknown, but if everyone skated better as they were not feeling so concerned about injury, I think it would have been better for everyone all the way around.

That is an interesting way to look at it, but it actually makes alot of sense too. Safe to say none of the top ladies looked like they were in attack mode that night, even those couple who were relatively clean (Arakawa, Suguri).

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think the judges wanted to make sure that Arakawa had enough points to put her ahead of Cohen -- while still leaving room for Slute if she had delivered a barn-burner.

Probably, there is no way for each judge to know the total score so it is possibly if they want to make sure someone comes ahead they push the scores to the max as much as they can.

 

[dewey]

I agree with Mathman - Shizuka had a much harder program ready to go if she needed it.

 

[sillylionlove]

I would like to think that she would have won the gold. If anyone deserves the gold it was Michelle.

 

[Tonichelle]

I would like to think that she would have won the gold. If anyone deserves the gold it was Michelle.

yes, because that's what made the 6.0 system great... you don't have to skate at all, we have decided who deserves the gold already... :sheesh:

she still had to skate, and so did the others... who knows what would have happened had Michelle skated... personally? I think Sasha would have skated BETTER in the LP if MK were in the mix, because the media would have fixated on teh kween, not Sasha... and that added pressure that she had that night might not have been there... granted that's another if... but IF we're playing the IF game...

still... we had all summer to play this game, why play it a week or so before the start of a new season?

 

[attyfan]

yes, because that's what made the 6.0 system great... you don't have to skate at all, we have decided who deserves the gold already... :sheesh:
...

Tell that to Tara, Sarah and Michelle.

From the point of view of "we have decided who deserves the gold already", the NJS doesn't change a thing. Look at Plushy's scores for things like Transition and Choreography, if you don't believe me.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I agree with Mathman - Shizuka had a much harder program ready to go if she needed it.

Yeah but why wouldnt she have needed it with Irina still to skate? She could not have really known Irina would turn in her most flawed, tenative, uninspired long program since her real return from illness almost 2 full seasons ago. Unless something was happening in the practices with Irina I never heard about.

 

[cassieandcheetah]

Yeah but why wouldnt she have needed it with Irina still to skate? She could not have really known Irina would turn in her most flawed, tenative, uninspired long program since her real return from illness almost 2 full seasons ago. Unless something was happening in the practices with Irina I never heard about.

yeah, but I don't quite agree with Mathman because I can't imagine someone trying to go for just a "silver" at the Olympics. Granted it ended up being the lone medal for Japan that year, but my, she was already so close to winning I'm sure she wanted to and did give it her all, even if it only amounted to 5 triples with no 3-3. I saw her performance, and it was gorgeous, but in retrospect it's a bit sad for skaters like Michelle Kwan who did much better compared to Shizuka at their Olympics and yet they came up short because of circumstances beyond their control...

 

[GoldMedalist]

Arakawa's 125 was a very big and impressive score for only 5 triples I would say however.

The quality of everything was strong, as was the program. Slutskaya got similarly high scores not because she consistently did 7-Triple programs under CoP (and she never did a 3-3 in the SP), but because the quality of her elements is very strong.

 

[sillylionlove]

still... we had all summer to play this game, why play it a week or so before the start of a new season?

Because there is nothing else to talk about today!!

 

[Tinymavy15]

I agree with Mathman - Shizuka had a much harder program ready to go if she needed it.

yes, that's why i was so dissipointed that she won with the performnace she gave. Her was landing 3 lutz/3 loop combos as well as 3 slachow/3loop/3 toe beautifully in practice. I would have liked to see her go for these. She was playing it way to safe, even doubling the solo triple loop. It made me feel like she didn't really want it bad enough. At least sasha and irina went for all the jumps.

 

[hockeyfan228]

But in that case everything about the competition might have been different. For instance, Arakawa might have tried a little harder to attack the triple-triples that she was landing with ease in practice. (I really believe that camp Arakawa, seeing Sasha falter, decided to concede the gold to Slutskaya and have Shizuka just skate a safe enough program to win a medal for Japan -- their only medal of any kind in the whole Olympic games.)

There are so many photos of an entire squadron of federation people surrounding Arakawa as she waited for Slutskaya's scores and realized that without an unprecendented score from Meissner AND Suguri, she would medal, and her only competition for the gold was Slutskaya, that I agree that it is likely that the team made the decision to get Arakawa a medal. They might have come to the same conclusion and ceded the gold and silver, though, if Kwan were at her peak and if the Tarasova programs really were that CoP-friendly. That bronze might have been as valuable to them as silver.

Meissner would have needed over 133 points in her LP, and although she did score over 129 points in her Worlds LP, in her first major international competition was not going to be given the 7's in PCS she was given in Calgary. Suguri would have needed just a few less points, and she doesn't have the PCS or the technical difficulty to get that kind of LP score.

Also, when Kwan was at her peak, the only element she did at a high level in CoP terms was the spiral (sometimes), not four L3-4 spins, one L3-4 footwork sequence, and one L3-4 spiral sequence, nor three jump combinations, one with three jumps.

I'm not sure Slutskaya would have been any better if Kwan had competed, as long as Ladies was the last event. The pressure on her was enormous. In SLC, there were golds for Russia in Men and Pairs, for Canada in Pairs, and for France in Dance. In Torino, she was pressured to gain the sweep for Russia, especially since the Russian skating program in the medium term (Vancouver) was empty of the usual string of solid contenders in the pipeline, having lost a decade.