If Kwan had been healthy for the Olympics?

[Andalusia]

she still had to skate, and so did the others... who knows what would have happened had Michelle skated... personally? I think Sasha would have skated BETTER in the LP if MK were in the mix, because the media would have fixated on teh kween, not Sasha... and that added pressure that she had that night might not have been there... granted that's another if... but IF we're playing the IF game...

Yeah, right. If anything, I'm inclined to think she would have skated worse had Michelle been there. She always seems to, so why should the Olympics be any different? You're guaranteed at least one splat in each Sasha performance.

Speaking of which, I rewatched Sasha's Olympic LP performance recently and am quite appalled that she wound up winning the silver. She only had four clean triples (the second one of the sequence looked double-footed), and the rest of her elements, which she usually performs sterlingly, seemed flatly executed as well. There's no way in my mind that Michelle wouldn't have been able to beat that had she been healthy.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

yes, because that's what made the 6.0 system great... you don't have to skate at all, we have decided who deserves the gold already... :sheesh:

It's no secret your dislike of Kwan, but why put down so many gold medalists from the 6.0 system? I loved Jacqueline duBief.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There are so many photos of an entire squadron of federation people surrounding Arakawa as she waited for Slutskaya's scores and realized that without an unprecendented score from Meissner AND Suguri, she would medal, and her only competition for the gold was Slutskaya, that I agree that it is likely that the team made the decision to get Arakawa a medal. They might have come to the same conclusion and ceded the gold and silver, though, if Kwan were at her peak and if the Tarasova programs really were that CoP-friendly. That bronze might have been as valuable to them as silver.

Meissner would have needed over 133 points in her LP, and although she did score over 129 points in her Worlds LP, in her first major international competition was not going to be given the 7's in PCS she was given in Calgary. Suguri would have needed just a few less points, and she doesn't have the PCS or the technical difficulty to get that kind of LP score.

Why would Meissner even be considered for the Oly gold in 2006? Sasha was representing the USA. Kwan was out of it and we have no idea how her peak would have been if her camp had taken care of her hip problems way back when they should have. Skaters do improve.

Sasha skated beautifully that night and under the 6.0 system, I would have given her first Arakawa was wonderful too. Irina was off that night as she was in 2002.
JMO

Joe

 

[hockeyfan228]

Why would Meissner even be considered for the Oly gold in 2006? Sasha was representing the USA. Kwan was out of it and we have no idea how her peak would have been if her camp had taken care of her hip problems way back when they should have. Skaters do improve.

Because if your skater is skating 3rd in that last group, to medal at all, you have to consider the odds of the next three skaters beating your skater, which means you have to consider Suguri's, Meissner's and Slutskaya's chances. If you're Team Arakawa you can't think the odds very great of all three beating Arakawa, to knock her into fourth, and the odds of either Suguri or Meissner (despite the potential 3/3's, which worked for Hughes and Lipinski) were small if she skated a clean, solid program, which was my point. If she went for the 3/3's, and fell, and knocked off her rhythm for the rest of her skate, then it wouldn't have been such a slam-dunk.

 

[slutskayafan21]

In the event the rest all skated exactly the same still somehow, then regarding the short program, although there is no way of knowing my wild guess is Kwan would have skated clean in the short and come in at 64 and change, putting her in clear 4th, behind the top 3, and ahead of Suguri. Then if Kwan did those 6 triples in the long I spoke of she would have nipped Arakawa for the overall gold by less then a point with a 127 and change. So there you go, I gave my wild guess.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Because if your skater is skating 3rd in that last group, to medal at all, you have to consider the odds of the next three skaters beating your skater, which means you have to consider Suguri's, Meissner's and Slutskaya's chances. If you're Team Arakawa you can't think the odds very great of all three beating Arakawa, to knock her into fourth, and the odds of either Suguri or Meissner (despite the potential 3/3's, which worked for Hughes and Lipinski) were small if she skated a clean, solid program, which was my point. If she went for the 3/3's, and fell, and knocked off her rhythm for the rest of her skate, then it wouldn't have been such a slam-dunk.

I agree with you. Shizuka felt safe atleast that there was no way Meissner and Suguri were going to pass her if she did just a safe routine. I highly doubt she wanted to double the triple loop, but other then that it looked like it was according to her new plan.

 

[hockeyfan228]

yes, because that's what made the 6.0 system great... you don't have to skate at all, we have decided who deserves the gold already... :sheesh:

It would take a different kind of effort under CoP to pull off the same, which would be more work, but hardly impossible. The 6.0 years had any number of instances where people claimed that they were told what the results would be ahead of time. Two that come to mind immediately are Ellen Burka, who said in a recent IFS issue that she was told there was no way her daughter Petra would repeat as World Champion, because the title would be given to Peggy Fleming, and the oft-repeated story that Linda Fratianne's mother (or aunt?) was in the Ladies' room and overheard that her daughter (or niece) would not win, before she and Poetsch had skated. Not to mention Lavoie's claim that Le Gougne had told him and a Swiss official at a competition in the fall of 2001 that she had promised her vote in SLC Pairs to her friend, Sanaia.

 

[Jaana]

The IFS have it.

If Kwan was really healthy in 1998, she would have won the 1997 Worlds and the98 Olys, but she wasn't in top shape and it wasn't because of a broken toe but something more serious, imo.
Joe

As far as I have understood Kwan was not injured after the 1998 Nationals, was she? She only would have needed to perform that freeskate at the Olympics and she would have won, wouldn´t she?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

As far as I have understood Kwan was not injured after the 1998 Nationals, was she? She only would have needed to perform that freeskate at the Olympics and she would have won, wouldn´t she?

Who really knows anything about Kwan? She had to be the most tightlipped skater about what's happening. There was some news that she had a broken toe at the time and could not do toe-off jumps easily, but I think the beginning of the hip problem started at that time. In subsequent years, fans (especially those who were against her) began extolling how she leaves elements out of her programs, and she did! and she limited her competitions to Nationals and Worlds except for the contractual cheesefests. By the time Moscow Worlds came around her technical was at a bare minimum. She was hurting. The hip problem didn't happen in Torino.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Oh yes (back on topic). Had they taken care of the hip problem after 98 Olys, she probably would not have skated for a few years but when back on the ice after practices the 'jumping bean' would have won the 2006 Olys. JMO

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Who really knows anything about Kwan? She had to be the most tightlipped skater about what's happening. There was some news that she had a broken toe at the time and could not do toe-off jumps easily, but I think the beginning of the hip problem started at that time. In subsequent years, fans (especially those who were against her) began extolling how she leaves elements out of her programs, and she did! and she limited her competitions to Nationals and Worlds except for the contractual cheesefests...

I think you are confusing 1998 with 2002. (?)

After the 1998 Olympics Michelle went on a fantastic tear. Far from "limiting her competitions," after Nagano Michelle competed in 1999 Skate America (1st), 1999 Skate Canada (1st) 1999 GP Final (2nd); 2000 Skate America (1st), 2000 Skate Canada (1st), 2000 GP Final (2nd); 2001 Skate America (1st), 2001 Skate Canada (1st), 2001 GP Final (2nd).

Far from leaving elements out of her programs, at 1999 Worlds she did 6 triples (including at least one of each kind); at 2000 Worlds she did 7 triples (3Lo, 3Lz/2T, 3T/3T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Lz)

At 2001 Worlds she did 7 triples in both the qualifying round and the long program (3Lo, 3T/3T, 3Lz/2T, 3S, 3F, 2A, 3Lz). And in 2002 Worlds she did 6 triples including 3T/3T in the qualifying round and 6 triples including at least one of each kind in the long program.

As late as 2004 Worlds she was still presenting all five triple jumps, including the triple loop.

Of course, a chronic hip problem develops over many years. But I think she was in pretty good shape until after the Salt Lake City Olympics, and that the problem did not become acute until 2004.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Mathman is right. The 2000 and 2001 Worlds Kwan actually did her most technical difficultly, atleast as far as the jumps go, that she ever did in a Worlds long program. She landed 7 triples and a triple-triple to come from behind and take the title from Irina both times. hwell: So cutting back was not happening at that point. After 2002 she stopped ever trying the triple toe-triple toe, and after 2004 she stopped ever managing more then 5-triple programs so that is where the cutting back really started.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

She had set out a regimen of caarefully executing jumps, but It wasn't just the jumps for Kwan, she also was leaving out ina bauers and charlottes, and the spins were getting less than eight revs. I contend she was hurting all those years albeit doing incredibly well.
None of this explains the departure of coach and choreographer.

As for Meissner, I really don't think she was a threat to anyone in that competition for the podium. Wasn't that her first Olys? and she made the Final Six! Fumie, yes, she had been a former podium worlds skater.

(Tara had been around for a while and yes, Sarah was the surprise of the Skating World!)

My questions will always be Does Gold Matter? or Does Beautiful Skating Matter? Maybe that should be a separate topic.

Joe

 

[Tinymavy15]

Speaking of which, I rewatched Sasha's Olympic LP performance recently and am quite appalled that she wound up winning the silver. She only had four clean triples (the second one of the sequence looked double-footed), and the rest of her elements, which she usually performs sterlingly, seemed flatly executed as well. There's no way in my mind that Michelle wouldn't have been able to beat that had she been healthy.

really? i thought that after the falls, sasha gave the performance of her life. All the jumps looked easy and beautifully landed, she gave it 110%. I often think she deserved gold, because she should have had a much bigger lead after the short and after the first two jumps she was absoultey perfect.

 

[Andalusia]

really? i thought that after the falls, sasha gave the performance of her life. All the jumps looked easy and beautifully landed, she gave it 110%. I often think she deserved gold, because she should have had a much bigger lead after the short and after the first two jumps she was absoultey perfect.

Really. As I said, the second jump of the sequence late in the program looked double-footed, so I'd say she only completed four clean triples. A four-triple performance with two falls winning the gold? That's a pretty sad state of affairs, if you ask me. I mean, in Nagano MK got the same colour medal as Sasha did with seven triples and a perfectly clean program. I find that a bit galling. I could see Sasha was doing her best to push through the performance, but all in all, the rest of her program was pretty much standard Sasha fare minus the extra oomph she had in her 2004 Malaguena SP at Worlds. Her spins looked slower than usual, too.

FWIW, I found Shizuka's LP pretty underwhelming as well. She was clean and that's about it. I didn't see any real connection with the music, and I didn't see much else going on there.

 

[slutskayafan21]

really? i thought that after the falls, sasha gave the performance of her life. All the jumps looked easy and beautifully landed, she gave it 110%. I often think she deserved gold, because she should have had a much bigger lead after the short and after the first two jumps she was absoultey perfect.

Interesting comments to say the least. You are entitled your opinion, but there was discussion after the event among the experts and media whether Sasha even deserved the silver or not. Some defended her by saying she deserved it because of her quality, while others said it was wrong with her mistakes that she still got the silver. Basically all the talk after the womens event was why Irina faltered (from Sasha it was expected), and how 2nd-4th between Sasha, Irina, Fumie should have been placed. Some thought Fumie was given a raw deal at the expense of Sasha and/or Irina, others agreed with the judges. However safe to say from the post-event discussions that there would have been an outrage if Sasha were given the gold.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Really. As I said, the second jump of the sequence late in the program looked double-footed, so I'd say she only completed four clean triples. A four-triple performance with two falls winning the gold? That's a pretty sad state of affairs, if you ask me. I mean, in Nagano MK got the same colour medal as Sasha did with seven triples and a perfectly clean program. I find that a bit galling.

FWIW, I found Shizuka's LP pretty underwhelming as well. She was clean and that's about it. I didn't see any real connection with the music, and I didn't see much else going on there.

Michelle only got the silver because the winner did twodifficult triple triple combonations and sold every element. against anybody else, michelle would have won.

I have to agree with you about Shizuka. Her performance to the same music in 2004 was much more inspiring. In 2006 all her spins looked the same, i did not see any real emotion or connecting the music or the story, the dress was HIDEOUS!

 

[RussianWinter]

I have often thought about this question and wondered....what if? Michelle herself was asked this after the competition (with emphasis on the fact that the Gold medal free skate featured only five triples) and she declined to really comment positively or negatively. As many have mentioned before, I believe there were/are too many variables involved for any kind of definitive answer. No one knows what Michelle's programs were like or if she would have even been seasoned enough to skate well. Also, as mentioned above, one great skater can bring out so much in other skaters . Michelle's very presence could have pushed Cohen, Slutskaya, and Arakawa all to perform differently for a myriad of reasons.
As for Arakawa's winning free skate....I thought it was a great performance. Certainly, "Turandot" from Dortmund was superior and definitely the skate of her life. But, "Turandot" in Turino was commanding and elegant and Shizuka seemed more confident than she had since her World title victory. It wasn't as technically impressive, but it was a fluid, complete program that was skated well. Slutskaya was not clean and unimpressive, and all of the beautiful moments in Cohen's freeskate were once again overshadowed by major errors. Arakawa's LP was not one of the greatest Olympic Gold winning performances in the history of the event, but it was nothing to dismiss, It was a tremendous effort and showcased all of the things that made her a special champion: grace, fluidity, subtle command, and strong technique.

 

[heyang]

A lot of you missed one of the big 'IF's' in the initial post. It explicitly said that all others skated as they did that night and if Kwan skated at her optimum.

Given Irina's and Sasha's falls and that Shizuka did not perform at her optimum, I would say that Michelle would have won gold if she had skated at her optimum.

Even given her past Olympic performances, she could have won if all other skaters had performed the same. In 98, her LP was just short of energy, but she had no other flaws. In 02, I think she had a wobble and she was flat. Compared to the 06 field, she should have medalled with either of those performances ASSUMING that they all skated as they did that night in 06.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I dont see Kwan's 2002 performance winning 2006 gold. Remember she fell in 2002, plus another two footed landing. I do see her 1998 performance winning 2006 gold.