If Kwan had been healthy for the Olympics?

[Jaana]

I dont see Kwan's 2002 performance winning 2006 gold. Remember she fell in 2002, plus another two footed landing. I do see her 1998 performance winning 2006 gold.

I don´t think that Kwan´s 1998 Olympic freeskate would have won the gold medal in 2006. Instead her 1998 Nationals freeskate could have won 1998, 2002 and maybe also 2006 Olympics, in my opinion.

 

[Mathman]

In 1998 Michelle did seven triples in eight jumping passes. Under CoP rules, without a triple-triple she would only have been allowed six triples. That probably would have been enough to beat Shizuka's elegant but measured 2006 performance, given Shizuka's doubled jump and her tentativeness on the two planned triple-triple attempts.

I am not 100% sure about the conventional wisdom that says Michelle tore the roof off the joint at 1998 Nationals and was ho-hum and boring at the Olympics. If you look at the programs side by side (and turn down the roar of the crowd and the enthusiastic commentary at Nationals), I am not really seeing such a dramatic difference.

Michelle's 2002 LP performance was like Sasha's in 2006. Two bad mistakes at the beginning, followed by a throw-caution-to-the-winds finish. But if 2006 had been judged by 6.0 -- since this thread is about "ifs" -- there is still a chance Michelle would have come out on top. With a clean short, Michelle might have bumped Shizuka down to fourth. Then Michelle could have won the gold with 1st in the short and 2nd in the free!

Actually, the more I think about it, I think that IS what happened. Michelle won her third consecutive Olympic Gold Medal in 2006. :yes: (Actually her fourth, because in 1994, IF Tonya Harding had been disqualified, Michelle would have been on the U.S. team, and then IF she had skated like she did at, say, the 1998 World Pro.... )

 

[Fossi]

Michelle only got the silver because the winner did twodifficult triple triple combonations and sold every element. against anybody else, michelle would have won.

I have to agree with you about Shizuka. Her performance to the same music in 2004 was much more inspiring. In 2006 all her spins looked the same, i did not see any real emotion or connecting the music or the story, the dress was HIDEOUS!

Wrong. Tara did ONE triple/triple and ONE sequence. SARAH HUGHES landed 2 triple/triples. I think you're confusing the years.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Wrong. Tara did ONE triple/triple and ONE sequence. SARAH HUGHES landed 2 triple/triples. I think you're confusing the years.

Or maybe he just chooses to consider a triple-triple sequence as basically a triple-triple anyway. Although technically you are right.

 

[slutskayafan21]

In 1998 Michelle did seven triples in eight jumping passes. Under CoP rules, without a triple-triple she would only have been allowed six triples. That probably would have been enough to beat Shizuka's elegant but measured 2006 performance, given Shizuka's doubled jump and her tentativeness on the two planned triple-triple attempts.

I agree.

I am not 100% sure about the conventional wisdom that says Michelle tore the roof off the joint at 1998 Nationals and was ho-hum and boring at the Olympics. If you look at the programs side by side (and turn down the roar of the crowd and the enthusiastic commentary at Nationals), I am not really seeing such a dramatic difference.

Alot of the difference probably comes in the crowd. Hard to seemingly reproduce the same "magic" in front of a reserved and sparse crowd which only seems midly enthusiastic about skating. Tough luck for Michelle who was probably held to her Nationals standard as much as her competitors standard.

Michelle's 2002 LP performance was like Sasha's in 2006. Two bad mistakes at the beginning, followed by a throw-caution-to-the-winds finish. But if 2006 had been judged by 6.0 -- since this thread is about "ifs" -- there is still a chance Michelle would have come out on top. With a clean short, Michelle might have bumped Shizuka down to fourth. Then Michelle could have won the gold with 1st in the short and 2nd in the free!

Awww but the problem here is needing to be 1st in the short for this scenario to come through. Although Michelle is an outstanding short program skater in her own right, Michelle usually lost to a prime Sasha in the short when Sasha was clean, and usually lost to a prime Irina in the short when Irina was clean. So beating 1 of them clean would have been hard enough, both would be a monumental feat. In 2002 Michelle scored a rare victory over Irina in the short on a 5-4 spite, but Irina's 2006 short was much superior to her 2002 short and yet she still narrowly missed leading after the short to Sasha(which I think shook Irina up a bit both times since she is used to always winning the short if she hits, but that is another discussion altogether), whereas Sasha in 2002 was neither the kind of threat or skater she was in later years. So it sounds good, but the tough little part you brushed over a bit is Michelle actually beating both a clean Irina and clean Sasha to win the short.

Actually, the more I think about it, I think that IS what happened. Michelle won her third consecutive Olympic Gold Medal in 2006. :yes: (Actually her fourth, because in 1994, IF Tonya Harding had been disqualified, Michelle would have been on the U.S. team, and then IF she had skated like she did at, say, the 1998 World Pro.... )

Why not, even Michelle probably would have landed more "clean" triples then Oksana did in 1994, although probably half the field did that night. Well I guess the judges didnt mind that too much since she won gold anyway, but yet again that would be another discussion.

 

[BravesSkateFan]

I think it would be possible for Michelle to win the OGM with a clean skate.

In her only COP competition she scored 61.22 in the short and 113.98 in the long (175.20 total). That score would have put her 4th in the LP and 5 in the SP and overall during the Olympics. That includes a fall on her salchow and a not so great 2nd lutz. Plus she had negative GOE's on only 3 elements (2 in the SP one in the LP).

With 2 improved CoP programs (which I'm sure they would have been better than those from 2005) and landing her jumps cleanly I think she could have won the gold medal.

But we will never know.

 

[hockeyfan228]

In 2006, the rules for levels were different, making it harder to gain the very top-level.

In 2005 Kwan was not far off from Slutskaya in the SP, but Slutskaya had L1-2 spins and L3 spiral, and lost -1.43 GOE for her 3Lz+2T and -.51 GOE on her last spin, which dropped the level to 1.

Kwan's 2005 SP was very clean, but both Cohen, Slutskaya, and Arakawa (who SP was only 1.27 under Kwan's) each had a least one major jump flaw. To earn 4-7 points more in Torino, they not only upped their base levels, but they skated very, very well. Kwan had to gain those points through levels, and she skates slower and with less power than both Arakawa and Slutskaya.

Even if you give Kwan back 6 points in the LP, plus another 6 in PCS for skating cleanly (perception, perception), she still would have needed to gain 4 points through levels alone to match Arakawa's LP score.

Kwan may have skated many 7-triple LP's, but she never skated a program close to having all L3-4 spins, spirals, and footwork. No matter how wonderful Tarasova's choreography was, there is no way to know if she could have pulled this off in competition, since she has no history doing so.

 

[BravesSkateFan]

Thats all true, but I was going off the assumption that Michelle would be 100% healthy (which she wasn't in 2005) and I think that would have helped her levels and her speed greatly, plus she could get into some more positions if the hip wasn't bothering her. I guess it just depends on what leway you are giving in terms of Michelle's health.

Not that any of it matters as its all water under the bridge now and as far as I'm concerned Michelle doesn't need the OGM anyway. It sure would have been nice, but certanly not necessary.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Imagine if one of the other favorite had scored 126-129 range in the long program, whatever they needed depending on their short program score. Shizuka's doubled triple loop would have cost her the gold medal. It is amazing that people almost forget that mistake since it became so insignificant in the end. However it might have been quite significant if things had worked differently for somebody else.

 

[Tonichelle]

It's no secret your dislike of Kwan, but why put down so many gold medalists from the 6.0 system? I loved Jacqueline duBief.

Joe

Has nothing to do (or at least very little) with Kwan. I just get tired of the mentality that an Olympic Gold should be given to someone as sort of a lifetime achievement award. As what was normally done (according to several autobiographies of the skaters of 'that era' that's how it was looked at)... it should be about the best skater that NIGHT. Not the last four years, not the last decade.

If they want a lifetime achievement award they should do something like the Browning fans did in 94. *shrugs*

Do I think the Code of Points stops that entirely, no. But in order to do that we have to get rid of the artistic mark.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Has nothing to do (or at least very little) with Kwan. I just get tired of the mentality that an Olympic Gold should be given to someone as sort of a lifetime achievement award. As what was normally done (according to several autobiographies of the skaters of 'that era' that's how it was looked at)... it should be about the best skater that NIGHT. Not the last four years, not the last decade.

If they want a lifetime achievement award they should do something like the Browning fans did in 94. *shrugs*

Do I think the Code of Points stops that entirely, no. But in order to do that we have to get rid of the artistic mark.

Awww but while the artistic mark is very subjective, getting rid of it would be eliminating the important of artistic quality of skating in competition. That would not be good.

 

[Tonichelle]

exactly. I don't want to see that happen either... but as long as you have that subjective side of skating, you will never have a completely 'fair' judging system... because you can't determine just what art is... without ticking people off lol...

I may not like the nude artwork that is very popular in the art department at UAA, but it's still art... just not my cup of tea.

just like I don't think Plushy is artistic on the ice, there are a lot of fans that would say other wise...

you say 'toe-may-toe' I say 'toe-mah-toe'....

 

[tae04]

Yawn what a pointless thread. Kwan hadn't even had a 6 triple program in an international competition since like 2003. Skate orders and everything would have been different if she was there. We could have a what if Irina landed 7 triples, what if Sasha landed 7 triples, everything would have been different under different circumstances....

 

[Tinymavy15]

Here's one for you...

what if Sasha and Irina had both skated perfect programs? (irina with 1 triple/triple) and shizuka skated the way she did in reality.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Here's one for you...

what if Sasha and Irina had both skated perfect programs? (irina with 1 triple/triple) and shizuka skated the way she did in reality.

Well of course Shizuka loses then, atleast with the doubled triple loop which cost her atleast 4 points. Everyone knows that.

 

[Tonichelle]

and Sasha would have probably come out on top... as she was leading going into the LP

 

[hockeyfan228]

But by less than a point, so it would have been a squeaker.