Is Mirai the favorite heading into junior worlds?
- Thread starter Tinymavy15
- Start date
Yeah, I don't think Canada is going to make it. Here is a list of the top international scores of some of the Junior Worlds competitors this season:
Score Name Country Competition
176,48 Caroline Zhang USA GPF*
162,09 Mirai Nagasu USA JGPF
159,66 Rachael Flatt USA JGPF
149,42 Yuki Nishino JPN JGPF
145,69 Elena Glebova EST Skate Canada*
142,40 Jenni Vähämaa FIN European Championships*
134,05 Sarah Hecken GER JGP Germany
131,50 Svetlana Issakova EST JGP Sheffield
130,59 Stefania Berton ITA European Championships*
129,32 Rumi Suizu JPN JGP Germany
126,50 Alena Leonova RUS JGP Harghita Cup
124,39 Nella Simaova CZE European Championships*
122,24 Sonia LaFuente ESP JGP Sheffield
121,23 Myriane Samson CAN JGP Germany
121,21 Cheltzie Lee AUS JGP Vienna Cup
121,10 Katarina Gerboldt RUS Cup of Russia*
* = Senior competition
IMO, the top countries are likely to include USA, Japan, Finland and Estonia, with Germany, Italy or Russia taking the last spot.
And it's not like Samson is consistent. Has she ever had a clean free?
Score Name Country Competition
176,48 Caroline Zhang USA GPF*
162,09 Mirai Nagasu USA JGPF
159,66 Rachael Flatt USA JGPF
149,42 Yuki Nishino JPN JGPF
145,69 Elena Glebova EST Skate Canada*
142,40 Jenni Vähämaa FIN European Championships*
134,05 Sarah Hecken GER JGP Germany
131,50 Svetlana Issakova EST JGP Sheffield
130,59 Stefania Berton ITA European Championships*
129,32 Rumi Suizu JPN JGP Germany
126,50 Alena Leonova RUS JGP Harghita Cup
124,39 Nella Simaova CZE European Championships*
122,24 Sonia LaFuente ESP JGP Sheffield
121,23 Myriane Samson CAN JGP Germany
121,21 Cheltzie Lee AUS JGP Vienna Cup
121,10 Katarina Gerboldt RUS Cup of Russia*
* = Senior competition
IMO, the top countries are likely to include USA, Japan, Finland and Estonia, with Germany, Italy or Russia taking the last spot.
And it's not like Samson is consistent. Has she ever had a clean free?
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2006
God it sooo good to see Germany back on the list of potential Top 10 Ladies finishers
Yeah we are all very proud of Sarah :agree: IF she can skate like she did at her regionals, Nationals and the JGP in Germany she might be able to give Germany the first Top 10 finish in Junior Worlds Ladies since 2001!
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2006
Actually don't forget Miriam Ziegler from Austria. She is another skater born in 1993 and I am very impressed with her skating this year. And she just won another competition, the Helmut Seibt Memorial in Vienna.
Good Luck Miriam!
I'm getting the feeling that the level of skating will be a lot higher than Euro Ladies and it will be a hell of a lot more interesting too
Good Luck Miriam!
I'm getting the feeling that the level of skating will be a lot higher than Euro Ladies and it will be a hell of a lot more interesting too
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That is the problem with Samson. If she skated her 2 programs at JW like she skated the short at nationals she has a chance. In fact last year she was 7th after the short at JW. She imploded in the long.
The big problem for Canada is that the choices for Canada are pretty slim. Our other junior-aged senior skaters ( Szmiett , Tisluk , Kang ) more often than not implode even more than Samson and our top junior skaters can't land more than a triple toe and salchow.
What I am madder about is the message that Skate Canada is sending by choosing the alternates. They chose Szmiett as 1st alternate and Tisluk as 2nd alternate. Both of them got lower scores than our junior champion at nationals. Even though Szmiett and Tisluk have landed the bigger jumps they miss them far more often than not. Szmiett has flip and lutz but no triple loop ( very obvious since she did not attempt any kind of loop jump in the long at nationals so you can't even say she popped an attempt at nationals). Tisluk has all the triples but completely imploded in the long at nationals failing to land one triple jump.
Szmiett's and Tisluk's past JGP experiences have been utter failures. Tisluk once fell 4 times in a JGP long.
It would be better to send our junior champion as an alternate. At least she is more consistent than the likes of Szmiett and Tisluk even though she doesn't have the big jumps. Also our junior champion is younger than Szmiett or Tisluk.
The choice of alternates shows that Skate Canada will continue to choose the older skaters who can land the big jumps 1% of the time and are more likely to completely implode over the more consistent younger skaters ( both at junior and novice level ) who have only toe and salchow.
My guess using Skate Canada's logic ( not mine) about who will get JGP's next season.
Will get for sure: Kang , Szmiett , Tisluk
Most likely will get ( summer competitions can change things here)
Kelsey McNeil ( 1st junior - has rotated loop before)
Megan Ure ( 8th junior landed triple flip in short even though she is super inconsistent) In fact this season she was listed as an alternate for JGP even though she failed to qualify for 2007 junior ladies nationals and her summer scores ( total SP+ FS ) did not even break the 100 point barrier. However she did rotate ( and fall on ) a few big triple jumps in the summer.
The state of ladies skating in Canada is pretty sad. It's Joannie and everybody else, imo. And I agree with you that SC is not being smart about its choices - if a girl has a only a toe loop and salchow, but does those jumps well and does all her elements well, then she can have some success - look at skaters like Chrissy Hughes (made the JGPF with only a toe and a salchow), Nana Takeda (medalled at NHK with only a toe loop, loop and salchow), and Rumi Suizu (same jumps as Takeda, alternate at JGPF).
I didn't! But she has no ISU bio, so I couldn't look up her season's best score.
Actually don't forget Miriam Ziegler from Austria. She is another skater born in 1993 and I am very impressed with her skating this year. And she just won another competition, the Helmut Seibt Memorial in Vienna.
Good Luck Miriam!
I'm getting the feeling that the level of skating will be a lot higher than Euro Ladies and it will be a hell of a lot more interesting too
I didn't! But she has no ISU bio, so I couldn't look up her season's best score.
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- Joined
- Mar 8, 2006
I didn't! But she has no ISU bio, so I couldn't look up her season's best score.
Of course she has one. ISU just didn't place the link yet
http://www.isufs.org/bios/isufs00010524.htm
All JW entries have their Bios already
By the way. Here you can get some really good statistics like PBs etc. http://www.figureskatingonline.info/statistics.php
Even though this was primarily an Austrian club comp. "stacked" with Austrian judges (with international participants, including USA's Victoria Rackohn who was 6th in Junior at Nationals and won the FS to place 2nd overall in Vienna), Miriam Ziegler won the gold with 130.02 points this past weekend -- see: http://www.eke-vienna.net/HSM1/res/CAT009RS.HTM
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- Sep 27, 2005
It will be interesting to see where Bingwa Geng falls into the lineup since she will be competing for China and scored 136.30 at her Nationals I believe it was. Granted Nationals are usually inflated but she may be in the mix for a top 10 finish. Should be interesting.
I cant wait to see Mirai, Caroline & Rachel battle it our for the top 3 spot
hurry up Jr Worlds!!
I cant wait to see Mirai, Caroline & Rachel battle it our for the top 3 spot
hurry up Jr Worlds!!Local competitions always generate high scores for the home competitors. Jenni Vahamaa scored 163.29 at Finlandia, more than 20 points higher than her Euros score (142.40) and more than 30 points higher than her JGP scores (125.43, 132.44 and 130.50). "B" International scores for the most part aren't reliable predictors of success in ISU championship competition.
That's why it's better to stick to scores posted at major ISU events (GP, JGP, Euros, JW, etc.) when estimating a skater's chances at ISU championships.
That's why it's better to stick to scores posted at major ISU events (GP, JGP, Euros, JW, etc.) when estimating a skater's chances at ISU championships.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
From the way we’re all talking, the USA is sending cruise missiles to a pillow fight.
I wouldn't say that Mirai had a bad skate at Junior Worlds last year, Mirai hit 6 triple jumps. Some may have been a bit scratchy, but they were still 6 jumps, and her and Caroline's Technical scores werre about the same.
I think that you can't really compare Senior PC scores to Junior PC scores, and it's fair to remember the loop is required for Juniors ,and the whole (extra spin in the FS)
When Mao went to Junior worlds after winning the Senior Grand Prix Finals, her PCS dropped significantly...
I think this year IF Nagasu is clean, Nagasu will win because her overall basics are better than Zhang or Flatts. Nagasu was unknown last year at Junior Worlds, but this time she's well known and respected and is going in as the US Senior National Champ.
I also wouldn't count Nishino of Japan out. The judges did put her ahead of Rachael Flatt in the short at JGPF.
I think that you can't really compare Senior PC scores to Junior PC scores, and it's fair to remember the loop is required for Juniors ,and the whole (extra spin in the FS)
When Mao went to Junior worlds after winning the Senior Grand Prix Finals, her PCS dropped significantly...
I think this year IF Nagasu is clean, Nagasu will win because her overall basics are better than Zhang or Flatts. Nagasu was unknown last year at Junior Worlds, but this time she's well known and respected and is going in as the US Senior National Champ.
I also wouldn't count Nishino of Japan out. The judges did put her ahead of Rachael Flatt in the short at JGPF.
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- Sep 27, 2005
From the way we’re all talking, the USA is sending cruise missiles to a pillow fight.
:chorus:If that means I get to see them skate again, I say bring on the cruise missles:yes::agree:
Then look at the FS scores:
107.55 Rachael Flatt (1st)
94.79 Yuki Nishino (3rd)
Nishino beat Flatt by 2.52 points in the SP, but Rachael beat Yuki by 12.76 points.
SPs are not Rachael's forte. But the FS is worth many more points than the SP, and the FS is where Rachael shines.
I wouldn't say Mirai's basic is much better than Caroline or Rachael. Her landings are usually unsecure compared to the other two, but she is certainly faster. Also, Caroline and Rachael have better upper body movements. Caroline is just smooth and graceful. As for Rachael, the reason I said she reminds me of Yu-na in another thread is because of her use of upper body and arm carriage. Mirai is certainly flexible, but somehow she comes off little stiff-ish. I think the three are about even both on TES and PCS. One thing I noticed watching nationals, Caroline surprisingly prelotates (and thus underrotates) the least among the three. It's something they all should work on, but it seems Caroline has really been working on her techniques.
Mirai has amazing balletic posture. It's one of her strengths. Rachael, on the other hand, skates with a hunched over back, which imo, she needs to work on. She reminds me of Fumie Suguri in that sometimes her facial expressions are too much. Facial contortions do not equal musicality.
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