Alissa skates clean, perhaps better than Nationals,
Uhhh. Alissa was NOT clean. She had a 2-footed landing, she also doubled a triple. I don't know if there were any more errors in addition to those. Also at Nationals she was riding in as the leader after the SP, and rightly so. She didn't win the Nats LP.
Here's my updated list for Worlds ladies, based on tonights results. This is how the US would place if they scored as they did tonight, and if the other top ladies do their season's average:
1. Yu-Na 190.16
2. Mao 180.95
3. Joannie 179.97
(* Caroline 171.22)
4. Miki 165.85
5. Fumie 164.15
6. Carolina 163.83
7. Rachael 162.83
8. Alissa 159.81
9. Laura L. 157.36
10. Sarah M. 147.64
So, if we assume Rachael and Alissa are going (safe assumption), we would earn 15 standing, all other things being equal. Again, that's if we skate as we did tonight. So it's not lost IMO, but as I said before we need to either skate our best, OR for Miki, Fumie or Carolina to screw up and drop below us. Of course, we also need the lower girls like Laura, Sarah and Cynthia to not have some kind of breakthrough night. If any lower skater manages to pass up both of our girls, there's basically no hope then. That's not likely though, just a possibility.
As for who to send -- Alissa is National champion. There's no official argument to be made. However, if Alissa "mysteriously withdraws", well, that would raise my eyebrow. Yes Caroline did amazing tonight, but this is essentially the best she can do. It's not the best Alissa and Rachael can do, so...